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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 30, 2019 20:58:57 GMT -8
You know this market is nuts when the Fed confirms that the economy is slowing down and we go up 400 points. Further more FB goes up 15% in less then 8 hours. Please correct me if I’m missing your point but the economy ≠ the stock market. And to take that further, do you really believe that FB going up 15% has anything at all to do with the economy? Since we closed above 163 we should be ready to see 174 and then 184. Just yesterday you posted: “Apple will be brought down to earth when the market corrects. I expect to see 142 or lower by end of March.” So you’re saying we should get ready to see 174 and then 184 but drop 42 to 142 or lower by end of March? Let’s see if the Chinese are as successful as Nacy in getting Trump to cry Uncle this week. My money is that he will blink. House Speaker Pelosi had an advantage in getting results since she represented half of the third branch of our government. Thought he had guts but it is clear he can’t stand the heat and will fold quite easily. What made you think he had guts? Was it because he could make government employees work without a paycheck for over 30 days, disrupting their lives and endangering the county’s citizens? Would *you* be comfortable flying knowing that many air traffic controllers were not showing up to work? It was fortunate that there wasn’t a tragedy as a result of reduced traffic control and stressed controllers. The government shutdown didn’t take guts, it took a complete lack of empathy for the government employees affected and a disregard for the safety of US citizens in general. The economy is still getting softer and little he does will change that at this point. Please don’t tempt fate by making that statement since *improving* the economy is not the only directional change that he could make. I see a big infrastructure bill passing by end of year. How do you do that? Am I close?
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Post by sponge on Jan 30, 2019 20:59:44 GMT -8
It is always hard to predict how high or low the stock will go. No one thought in Feb 2018 when we were trading as low as 150 we would hit 233 in less the. 9 months. And none saw us trading at 142 in 3 months after that. But history and charts helps us understand some of the moves. And can give us a guide for the future. www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/pe-ratioIt should also be noted that in 2007-2009 we saw some extreme moves. Between 2012-2013 we dropped 45% while revenue was increasing.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Jan 30, 2019 21:00:51 GMT -8
I do think TC needs to go Who would you prefer instead?
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Post by sponge on Jan 30, 2019 21:10:45 GMT -8
You know this market is nuts when the Fed confirms that the economy is slowing down and we go up 400 points. Further more FB goes up 15% in less then 8 hours. Please correct me if I’m missing your point but the economy ≠ the stock market. And to take that further, do you really believe that FB going up 15% has anything at all to do with the economy? Since we closed above 163 we should be ready to see 174 and then 184. Just yesterday you posted: “Apple will be brought down to earth when the market corrects. I expect to see 142 or lower by end of March.” So you’re saying we should get ready to see 174 and then 184 but drop 42 to 142 or lower by end of March? Let’s see if the Chinese are as successful as Nacy in getting Trump to cry Uncle this week. My money is that he will blink. House Speaker Pelosi had an advantage in getting results since she represented half of the third branch of our government. Thought he had guts but it is clear he can’t stand the heat and will fold quite easily. What made you think he had guts? Was it because he could make government employees work without a paycheck for over 30 days, disrupting their lives and endangering the county’s citizens? Would *you* be comfortable flying knowing that many air traffic controllers were not showing up to work? It was fortunate that there wasn’t a tragedy as a result of reduced traffic control and stressed controllers. The government shutdown didn’t take guts, it took a complete lack of empathy for the government employees affected and a disregard for the safety of US citizens in general. The economy is still getting softer and little he does will change that at this point. Please don’t tempt fate by making that statement since *improving* the economy is not the only directional change that he could make. I see a big infrastructure bill passing by end of year. How do you do that? Am I close? View Attachment A few points. In TA if certain targets are met, then the next level will happen. Had we not closed above 163 then the 142 target was still in play as of yesterday. The market and economy are linked. The Feds were raising rates because the economy was too hot. Hence the market as been up for 8 years. When they signaled they would not raise rates it signaled the economy was no longer hot. Yet the market went up. FB went up 15% despite giving guidance of a drop in revenue and profit. The Chinese can cause more pain to Trump then Nancy and a bunch of gov employees who got to have either paid stay home vacations or a simple delay in getting checks for average of $9000 a month that most private sector folks would die for. The infrastructure bill will stimulate the economy if passed in time with strong state limits. Obama allows states to move money they would of used for roads to give big pensions to employee unions that put most politicians in office in the big blue states. So there was no extra stimulus since it was a wash.
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Post by sponge on Jan 30, 2019 21:18:06 GMT -8
I do think TC needs to go Who would you prefer instead? Good question. The guy who almost went to Intel comes to mind. I am sure there are other great candidates. If we repeat how we traded with market in 2008 meaning we drop 60% or correct below 128 then his job is on the line. I still think $93 is possible in 12 months Presently the board is in his corner and Blackrock is very influential. So it would take a lot of pressure from outside. The board needs to be changed as well. It should be noted that even Apple sees a further drop in its stock. It bought very little last quarter.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,630
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 30, 2019 22:42:04 GMT -8
The market and economy are linked. The Feds were raising rates because the economy was too hot. Hence the market as been up for 8 years. When they signaled they would not raise rates it signaled the economy was no longer hot. Yet the market went up. FWIW, the same thing happened back in the 1999-2003 timeframe, and I believe in the ~2008 timeframe. I remember it since it seemed so counterintuitive, that the Fed saw things slowing down, and so stopped raising rates or even started lowering them. (opps, forgot to include the point. ...and the market responded positively) OTOH, if you think of the market and economy as related, but not in lock step, then in makes more sense. Likewise, if you think of investors more interested in the future, including the availability of cheaper money, then it makes sense. In the end, some of this stuff doesn't always beget the same results, instead depending a bit on how the market takes it that particular day. But overall the market is normally forward looking, so with a change based on current conditions, the change is more important than the current conditions. If Apple announced revenue was lower, but predicted that the future wouldn't be as gloomy as others expected, what do you think would happen? On this particular day, after AAPL has been down a lot both this month and the last few months, the market took it in a positive way. But nothing is in a vacuum, with other comparable stocks up around 4%. The rosier than expected glasses are lifting all ships.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 31, 2019 3:04:50 GMT -8
Kind of an amusing thread here. Logical people attempting to understand the investing equivalent of an object randomly moving through space and time. By asking that object where it has been and where it will go next. And somehow expecting the object to know or be coherent .
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