Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2019 3:14:51 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Feb 1, 2019 4:43:58 GMT -8
Any thoughts on Apple not buying back a single share in December?
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Post by ped on Feb 1, 2019 4:57:08 GMT -8
Any thoughts on Apple not buying back a single share in December? Just speculation', but if he knew he'd have to issue a warning, Tim Cook would want to be Caesar's wife for the SEC. That suggests that he knew in December. Vaguely remember a rumor to that effect around then.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 1, 2019 5:12:12 GMT -8
The absence of a major buyer would contribute to the speed and depth of a fall...
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2019 8:34:38 GMT -8
I expect to see 174 next week.
If there is no real deal with China and tariffs go up, then I also expect us to visit the low 140 by middle of March.
If there is still no deal with China by June, then that fact and poor Q3 guidance will move us into the mid 120’s
Don’t want to be a bear or negative, but the down trend that started in Oct has not reversed. The move from 142 is part of a market wide recovering and bear rally. I will give aapl an extra 6% for earnings that did not dissapoint WS.
Jobs number was strong, but GDP next week won’t reflect that. European economies are slowing down fast.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 1, 2019 8:38:46 GMT -8
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 1, 2019 9:49:49 GMT -8
I expect to see 174 next week. If there is no real deal with China and tariffs go up, then I also expect us to visit the low 140 by middle of March. If there is still no deal with China by June, then that fact and poor Q3 guidance will move us into the mid 120’s Don’t want to be a bear or negative, but the down trend that started in Oct has not reversed. The move from 142 is part of a market wide recovering and bear rally. I will give aapl an extra 6% for earnings that did not dissapoint WS. Jobs number was strong, but GDP next week won’t reflect that. European economies are slowing down fast. On the flip side, I think upcoming dividend increase, services+wearable update and purchases expansion, stock buyback, factory replacement by Vietnam and India, will be more than enough keep the stock from going as low as you predict. Remember, it's all sentimental.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 1, 2019 11:27:31 GMT -8
Oh for the love of God do not encourage him. 🙈🙉🙊
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 1, 2019 12:09:19 GMT -8
I'm sure there are other viewers who might be interested to know both sides of the coin By 2020 or whenever 5G is out, it's going to be an upgrade for many years, and Apple will certainly the profit, enough to buy back most of their AAPL shares. Beyond that, the rest of profit will lift dividend higher and higher for the remaining long term investors to enjoy
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Post by nwjade on Feb 1, 2019 12:15:20 GMT -8
I expect to see 174 next week. If there is no real deal with China and tariffs go up, then I also expect us to visit the low 140 by middle of March. If there is still no deal with China by June, then that fact and poor Q3 guidance will move us into the mid 120’s Don’t want to be a bear or negative, but the down trend that started in Oct has not reversed. The move from 142 is part of a market wide recovering and bear rally. I will give aapl an extra 6% for earnings that did not dissapoint WS. Jobs number was strong, but GDP next week won’t reflect that. European economies are slowing down fast. On the flip side, I think upcoming dividend increase, services+wearable update and purchases expansion, stock buyback, factory replacement by Vietnam and India, will be more than enough keep the stock from going as low as you predict. Remember, it's all sentimental. In addition, don't forget if a trade deal with China is announced there's going to be a pop. Depends on the terms how much but the prospect of some sort of deal being announced is looking pretty good. IMO this will keep both investors and some traders hanging around who might have moved on after this run up in the stock because they don't want to miss it.
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2019 12:26:43 GMT -8
At this point I will respond to keep a few people perturbed.
Yes the stock moves on sentiment. Which as long as Apple reports a drop in iPhones sales, a drop in revenue, and drop in net income and a drop in eps, we will experience negative sentiment and move rather down.The amount we drop and the timing is not always clear. But in our situation given how closely linked we are with the market, out side forces that impact the market will take us down with it.
Yes apple can do great things like more buybacks and expansion of products and services. We have gone thru this several times and despite good progress in certain areas the stock still gets punished.
I think this month Trump will not reach a deal with China but claim he has. The one scenario I see is where tariffs still go up but only gradually. He will extend talks for further negotiations another 90 days putting us into June for some resolution or further escalation.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 1, 2019 15:09:37 GMT -8
Any thoughts on Apple not buying back a single share in December? Just speculation', but if he knew he'd have to issue a warning, Tim Cook would want to be Caesar's wife for the SEC. That suggests that he knew in December. Vaguely remember a rumor to that effect around then. Just disappointing to see they bought back shares at an average of $216 in October and November. That would suggest they had zero insight into what was announced at the beginning of January. I sure hope they've bought back a significant number of shares this month.
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2019 15:24:07 GMT -8
Just speculation', but if he knew he'd have to issue a warning, Tim Cook would want to be Caesar's wife for the SEC. That suggests that he knew in December. Vaguely remember a rumor to that effect around then. Just disappointing to see they bought back shares at an average of $216 in October and November. That would suggest they had zero insight into what was announced at the beginning of January. I sure hope they've bought back a significant number of shares this month. Everyone is so focused on lack of buying in Dec. I think they expected the stock to be lower then 158. But at the same they know things are slowing down. They will plenty of time the rest of the year to buy below 158. In 10 months people will complain why they bought at 150 instead of 120. I think they should be complaining why they bought so much between June and Oct. it was clear then we were way overbought. TC needs to be fired. The sooner the better.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2019 16:31:40 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 1, 2019 16:47:01 GMT -8
Just speculation', but if he knew he'd have to issue a warning, Tim Cook would want to be Caesar's wife for the SEC. That suggests that he knew in December. Vaguely remember a rumor to that effect around then. Just disappointing to see they bought back shares at an average of $216 in October and November. That would suggest they had zero insight into what was announced at the beginning of January. I sure hope they've bought back a significant number of shares this month. What would be really disappointing would be an SEC investigation.
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Post by deasys on Feb 1, 2019 17:47:39 GMT -8
Yes the stock moves on sentiment. Which as long as Apple reports a drop in iPhones sales, a drop in revenue, and drop in net income and a drop in eps, we will experience negative sentiment and move rather down…Yes apple can do great things like more buybacks and expansion of products and services. So AAPL could go to $95 or it could go to $174. Have I got that right?
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2019 17:52:55 GMT -8
Yes the stock moves on sentiment. Which as long as Apple reports a drop in iPhones sales, a drop in revenue, and drop in net income and a drop in eps, we will experience negative sentiment and move rather down…Yes apple can do great things like more buybacks and expansion of products and services. So AAPL could go to $95 or it could go to $174. Have I got that right? I feel like some folks are selective readers. 174 next week and 95 in 12 months
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Post by longsince98 on Feb 1, 2019 17:54:13 GMT -8
So AAPL could go to $95 or it could go to $174. Have I got that right? I feel like some folks are selective readers. 174 next week and 95 in 12 months iCal’d
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2019 18:00:24 GMT -8
I feel like some folks are selective readers. 174 next week and 95 in 12 months iCal’d There are lots of caveats for 95. Everything has to be going wrong. The new iPhone in Sept would be have to be a major flop, Chinese economy a real mess and tariff wars at maximum level, ours in the 1% gdp growth, and Europe in a free fall. The Chinese need to get rid of Trump. Taking aapl down and the S&P would be the easiest way. So look out for that in 12 months.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 1, 2019 19:08:51 GMT -8
Oh for the love of God do not encourage him. 🙈🙉🙊 Resistance is futile. Signal to noise ratio is steadily marching towards zero.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 1, 2019 20:01:29 GMT -8
Just disappointing to see they bought back shares at an average of $216 in October and November. That would suggest they had zero insight into what was announced at the beginning of January. I sure hope they've bought back a significant number of shares this month. Everyone is so focused on lack of buying in Dec. I think they expected the stock to be lower then 158. But at the same they know things are slowing down. They will plenty of time the rest of the year to buy below 158. In 10 months people will complain why they bought at 150 instead of 120. I think they should be complaining why they bought so much between June and Oct. it was clear then we were way overbought.And yet, I just looked through your posts from April to October of last year and didn't find one single occurrence of the word *overbought*. Did you feel it was so clear to everyone there was no need to mention it? TC needs to be fired. The sooner the better. It's perhaps easier for someone who recently stated he holds no position in AAPL, but I'd guess a quick poll of AAPL Longs on AFB would show most would disagree with you. Just consider Apple's dividend program: It's well known that Steve Jobs was against paying dividends, yet Tim Cook and the BOD restarted the dividend program in August of 2012. Since then Apple has paid many billions of dollars to shareholders and, in 2017, became the biggest-paying dividend stock in the world, surpassing Exxon Mobil's payout. I know some folks on AFB, for whatever reason, do not like dividends. As for myself, my wife and I started buying AAPL over 18+ years ago and expected that when we retired, our pensions plus my Social Security would enable us to be reasonably secure in retirement since we would have paid off our home mortgage. We expected that we would *eventually* have to occasionally sell some shares of AAPL to help cover unplanned expenses, vacations, etc. But because of AAPL's dividend program, that will not need to happen and our current yearly AAPL dividends ~ 5 X (my pension[23 years]+wife's pension[29 years]+my Social Security) and the only shares of AAPL we sell are to satisfy my yearly RMD. Plus, the 60% of AAPL dividends that show up quarterly in our IRA's have continued to buy us more shares of AAPL over the last almost 7 years. And I just discussed Apple's dividend program without even addressing the success that Apple has enjoyed with Tim Cook as CEO. I'll just leave these links for you to peruse to remind you of just a few of the positive contributions that Tim Cook has made to Apple over the years. The first link is almost 6 years old but still relevant. 03/26/13 - The 10 Smartest Things Tim Cook Has Done Since Becoming Apple's CEO 08/08/16 - 9 Ways Tim Cook Has Transformed Apple
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 1, 2019 20:08:17 GMT -8
There are lots of caveats for 95. Everything has to be going wrong. The new iPhone in Sept would be have to be a major flop, Chinese economy a real mess and tariff wars at maximum level, ours in the 1% gdp growth, and Europe in a free fall. The Chinese need to get rid of Trump. Taking aapl down and the S&P would be the easiest way. So look out for that in 12 months. The *Chinese* need to get rid of Trump? The *Chinese*? Yeah, OK.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 2, 2019 5:13:05 GMT -8
Just disappointing to see they bought back shares at an average of $216 in October and November. That would suggest they had zero insight into what was announced at the beginning of January. I sure hope they've bought back a significant number of shares this month. What would be really disappointing would be an SEC investigation. You are suggesting that TC knew they would lower guidance in January, and that's why they didn't buy back any shares in December? Well, if he knew, then why wasn't the information released publicly until January? AAPL was driven down 11.7% during the month of December. If corporate knew what was coming at the beginning of December and didn't disclose it while the stock took a dive, isn't that illegal? We all sat here clamoring about what BS all those reports were of slowing production, and they actually were correct. If I misinterpreted you, I don't see anything wrong with buying back boat loads of shares in January. Although I do think this gives credence to the argument that buy backs are terrible, and the money should be returned to the shareholders via dividend payments.
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Post by hledgard on Feb 2, 2019 6:44:49 GMT -8
Good point appledoc. Do you happen to know what percent of AAPL is in sellable share on the open market?
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Post by sponge on Feb 2, 2019 9:29:15 GMT -8
Lucky
Don’t need to debate you. It is hard to keep up with all the posts. But I mentioned sometime back that I sold at 207 in August. Stayed in cash because anything over 220 we too high for me and I knew it would correct. I bought back at 196 after the initial correction in Nov. trying to time a bounce. The market kept crashing so I stayed put. After the Jan letter I sold it all despite the loss. I am confident I will buy back in 12 months and initially break even. No worries I have plenty of time to recover since I am still very bullish on the company. Especially if they get rid of Cook
Also keep in mind I made 800% on puts in Nov as well with my trading money. In one week I recovered what I had lost in 3 years. By July my put investments will make my Roth account look like play money. And come June 2020, I will slowly become more bullish as I anticipate a nice bounce in the stock for the next 3 years.
I should point out that many here bailed out on Apple in 2016. They were so demoralized with the stock and the company after we correct 45% from 2015. That feeling will come back by end of this year. We will see how many are left on this board again.
Glad you invested and live off dividend. Hope you have cash to buy more or reinvest in the next 12 months.
SJ created an incredible company that will provide us with amazing products for decades to come. We will make money as well from investing.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 2, 2019 12:27:41 GMT -8
Good point appledoc. Do you happen to know what percent of AAPL is in sellable share on the open market? Not sure.
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