Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 6, 2019 3:17:00 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 6, 2019 8:02:26 GMT -8
Apple Annual Meeting
If you want to attend you must register. Contact your broker NOW.
Registration is now open. The auditorium filled in about an hour last year...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 6, 2019 8:26:10 GMT -8
Some here have been riled up lately, which is easy to do at times. While several of us have volunteered to be moderators, we don't want to nit-pic at posts, instead generally staying self-moderated and just being around to help if something gets really bad, and to keep the pro-board running. Here's part of my post from last night, about the mute feature: ... here and in other forums over the years, there are times where someone just bugs you. I remember using the ignore feature on TMF 20 years ago, when someone went off the deep end. For me, it was rare to put someone into that, and often I un-ignored later. Pro boards has a similar feature, called mute. It's there as a choice under the gear icon. If someone is getting under your skin and you feel you just aren't getting anything positive from a particular user, go ahead and mute them. There's a few of us that have volunteered to be moderators here, but in general we all agree that self-moderation is best. Frankly, we don't want to micromanage anything here. Lets self-regulate, keeping things civil. If you feel someone is just trying to get your heart rate up, go ahead and mute them. If you feel you have to personally attack someone, bite thy tongue instead. And if it's political or in some other way likely to be offensive, think twice about it, but post it in the dungeon if you must. Cheers!
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 8:37:19 GMT -8
Good Morning Boys and Girls
The article that Macalope counters is actually not that bad. The more telling part are the commentary at the end. On stood out for me. The China war won’t be resolved until 2021. That if true will put us in a world of hurt for quite some time.
Ben the famous Apple analyst pointed out in one of his podcast that only 50% of Chinese Apple customer stay loyal. Given that Apple’s market share has been trending down, for the time being I think Apple has peaked in China. Since a great deal of future growth was being dependent on China and sales were down 27% last Q, we have lots of pain ahead us in that country.
I discovered an interesting data point that I have witnessed now for 2 years but have yet to truly take advantage of . RSI dropped to 24 on Dec 24 and aapl hit 146. That appeared to be the low since we started to recover with the SPY to 158 before the letter came out. We dropped to 142 but RSI was only 30 and we bounced right back as the SPY was on a tear. The MACD showe positive momentum since Dec so it is now clear we would move up after earnings regardless of how bad things would be on paper. If one had bought the aapl call 170 for Feb on Jan 24, they would have made 1300% yesterday.
We had a similar reaction in Feb of last year when RSI dropped to 19. So I will be ready the next time since I think that this scenario will happen again at least 2x this year. It can also go both ways. Simply wait for the bottom and wait one month. Simply wait for the top and wait one month.
Today we initially went up and now we have recovered. IF we manage to close above 176 then we should be ready for mid 180s. This is all because of the SPY and has little to do with Apple. Although a few are stating that Apple is buy back that is why we keep going up. So it is very possible that Apple is influencing the SPY this week.
Stay tuned for the next update
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 8:46:59 GMT -8
In looking at the SPY it wants to close between 270-271 by Friday. This means aapl should close at 171 and change. Apple recovered too quickly and now has faded down. So it does not appear to have the momentum of the market to push it above 176. We will have a better picture in about 2.5 hours.
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 6, 2019 9:46:24 GMT -8
The Chinese used to buy a lot of iPhones not only for themselves but they bought extra to sell them for extra profits.
Iphone market in Southeast Asia and Europe were low comparing to other brands.
While the Chinese market is declining due to their economy and trade tension, the market in other parts of Asia and Europe grows (see the previous Tim Cook warning letter about new record revenue in US, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Malaysia and Vietnam), which I think should be enough to make up the loss in China.
The bottom line is, Apple products are still desirable and delightful to use and there's always a big market for it. Apple is still making billions of dollars of profit.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 10:04:17 GMT -8
The Chinese used to buy a lot of iPhones not only for themselves but they bought extra to sell them for extra profits. Iphone market in Southeast Asia and Europe were low comparing to other brands. While the Chinese market is declining due to their economy and trade tension, the market in other parts of Asia and Europe grows (see the previous Tim Cook warning letter about new record revenue in US, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Malaysia and Vietnam), which I think should be enough to make up the loss in China. The bottom line is, Apple products are still desirable and delightful to use and there's always a big market for it. Apple is still making billions of dollars of profit. I agree. The concern is that if those other markets slow down, then the only country they can grow would be here. All indicators regardless of what Trump said last night is that things are slowing down in the US. Car and housing come to mind. Don’t have time now but look at that data.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 6, 2019 10:30:29 GMT -8
Lucky Don’t need to debate you. It is hard to keep up with all the posts. But I mentioned sometime back that I sold at 207 in August. Stayed in cash because anything over 220 we too high for me and I knew it would correct. I bought back at 196 after the initial correction in Nov. trying to time a bounce. The market kept crashing so I stayed put. ***Why were you trying to “time a bounce”? I proved to myself I was unable to do such a thing *years* ago so I’m surprised, with all of your expertise and experience, that you would even try such a thing. After the Jan letter I sold it all despite the loss. I am confident I will buy back in 12 months and initially break even. No worries I have plenty of time to recover since I am still very bullish on the company. Especially if they get rid of Cook ***So after all that, you sold at a *loss* and yet you’re *confident* that you will “buy back in 12 months and initially break even”? And this is good somehow that you’ll break even…in 12 months? You’re confident you’ll do well in 12 months when you couldn’t foretell what would happen even 2 months down the road? Have you ever taken the time to calculate how you would have done financially if you had just bought and held AAPL over the years instead of trying to use your self-described TA components of “RSI, MACD, Moving averages, gaps, OI in puts or calls, ViX, oil prices, and finally direction of overall market.”? Oh, and I almost forgot that last component you mentioned, “One has to follow how aapl is doing relative to SPY”. Considering how your investments have fared, according to your own posts, how can you possibly keep a straight face while making the statement, “…it is rather fun watching the future”? Also keep in mind I made 800% on puts in Nov as well with my trading money. In one week I recovered what I had lost in 3 years. By July my put investments will make my Roth account look like play money. And come June 2020, I will slowly become more bullish as I anticipate a nice bounce in the stock for the next 3 years. ***I’ve been taken to task on Seeking Alpha and accused of bragging (anonymously) for occasionally posting actual $ figures of how my wife and I have benefited from investing in AAPL over the years. I didn’t do so initially after joining SA, but finally did so because I grew weary of trolls saying AAPL Longs were making no money at all from their AAPL investment when the share price pulled back. This, in spite of AAPL paying dividends since 2012. You saying you made 800% on puts tells me *nothing* since I don’t know the amount upon which you made 800%. If you made 800% on $2 million, that’s impressive…however if you made 800% on $2,000, well, that’s nice, too, but many AAPL Longs make that much or more when the AAPL share price increases by $1. I should point out that many here bailed out on Apple in 2016. They were so demoralized with the stock and the company after we correct 45% from 2015. That feeling will come back by end of this year. We will see how many are left on this board again. ***Whether the share price is up or down, I check AFB several times a day and, in fact, it’s the first thing I read every morning. I’m always sorry to see folks leave AFB but we don’t necessarily know they left AFB and no longer invest in AAPL or if they just left the board for other reasons. . Glad you invested and live off dividend. Hope you have cash to buy more or reinvest in the next 12 months. ***Did you miss this part of my post? “Plus, the 60% of AAPL dividends that show up quarterly in our IRA's have continued to buy us more shares of AAPL over the last almost 7 years.” This means, of course, that we’ve bought more shares of AAPL *every* quarter since Apple restarted their dividend program in August of 2012 without regard to share price. If the share price drops, as it has over the last several months, we just buy even more shares with the same dividend amount. SJ created an incredible company that will provide us with amazing products for decades to come. We will make money as well from investing. ***I don’t disagree with your statement. I do, however, think you would benefit by becoming an AAPL Long instead of trying to convince us, and yourself, that you’re “watching the future” when it comes to Apple/AAPL.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 10:38:15 GMT -8
Lucky
You love to lecture 😀
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 6, 2019 10:45:01 GMT -8
Lucky You love to lecture 😀 Your comments never fail to surprise. Suggestion: Read your own posts out loud, to yourself, *before* you post them.
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 6, 2019 11:02:58 GMT -8
The Chinese used to buy a lot of iPhones not only for themselves but they bought extra to sell them for extra profits. Iphone market in Southeast Asia and Europe were low comparing to other brands. While the Chinese market is declining due to their economy and trade tension, the market in other parts of Asia and Europe grows (see the previous Tim Cook warning letter about new record revenue in US, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Malaysia and Vietnam), which I think should be enough to make up the loss in China. The bottom line is, Apple products are still desirable and delightful to use and there's always a big market for it. Apple is still making billions of dollars of profit. I agree. The concern is that if those other markets slow down, then the only country they can grow would be here. All indicators regardless of what Trump said last night is that things are slowing down in the US. Car and housing come to mind. Don’t have time now but look at that data. That's a big "if", I could say the same thing in reverse, like if those markets grow even more ... Anyway, I wouldn't worry too much, I don't think it will be as bad as you think. Remember when Apple was growing like crazy even before they started to expand their iPhone market to China.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 11:04:13 GMT -8
Lucky You love to lecture 😀 Your comments never fail to surprise. Suggestion: Read your own posts out loud, to yourself, *before* you post them. I rest my case Why don’t you talk about Apple and the future instead what I post. If you hang on to your stock you will do well. However be ready to see a drop in dividend if things really go south. Not sure why everyone gets so upset instead of posting a counter bullish argument. Everything becomes to personal suddenly.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 11:08:11 GMT -8
I agree. The concern is that if those other markets slow down, then the only country they can grow would be here. All indicators regardless of what Trump said last night is that things are slowing down in the US. Car and housing come to mind. Don’t have time now but look at that data. That's a big "if", I could say the same thing in reverse, like if those markets grow even more ... Anyway, I wouldn't worry too much, I don't think it will be as bad as you think. Remember when Apple was growing like crazy even before they started to expand their iPhone market to China. Trust me I was one of those bulls. Apple was growing like crazy because of the smart phone revolution they started. That lasted 10 years and we are at the tail end. Everyone who could afford a $1500 iPhone has been sold to. Now they will have to rely on cycles as they do with the Mac or iPad. We are about to enter the second bearish iPhone cycle. It will pass but we must remain patient.
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Post by deasys on Feb 6, 2019 11:26:16 GMT -8
Everyone who could afford a $1500 iPhone has been sold to. Could be, but exactly which phone would that be? (The iPhone XS Max with 1/2 terabyte of storage costs $1,449.)
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 6, 2019 11:30:39 GMT -8
That's a big "if", I could say the same thing in reverse, like if those markets grow even more ... Anyway, I wouldn't worry too much, I don't think it will be as bad as you think. Remember when Apple was growing like crazy even before they started to expand their iPhone market to China. Trust me I was one of those bulls. Apple was growing like crazy because of the smart phone revolution they started. That lasted 10 years and we are at the tail end. Everyone who could afford a $1500 iPhone has been sold to. Now they will have to rely on cycles as they do with the Mac or iPad. We are about to enter the second bearish iPhone cycle. It will pass but we must remain patient. There's nothing wrong with cycles, other brands go through the same thing, and will continue as we move to 5G, 3D, AR, and additional security features, battery, camera, sensor technology advance. iPhone will become a personal ID card as it gets thinner with combination of voice/eyes/fingerprint identification. Meanwhile, Apple growth engine is now shifted to wearables, e.g. Apple watch, airpods, and they're growing like crazy.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 11:34:06 GMT -8
Trust me I was one of those bulls. Apple was growing like crazy because of the smart phone revolution they started. That lasted 10 years and we are at the tail end. Everyone who could afford a $1500 iPhone has been sold to. Now they will have to rely on cycles as they do with the Mac or iPad. We are about to enter the second bearish iPhone cycle. It will pass but we must remain patient. There's nothing wrong with cycles, other brands go through the same thing, and will continue as we move to 5G, 3D, AR, and additional security features, battery, camera, sensor technology advance. iPhone will become a personal ID card as it gets thinner with combination of voice/eyes/fingerprint identification. Meanwhile, Apple growth engine is now shifted to wearables, e.g. Apple watch, airpods, and they're growing like crazy. I agree 100%
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 6, 2019 12:19:18 GMT -8
Lucky You love to offer good advice on how to profit from AAPL 😀FIFY
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 12:28:51 GMT -8
Changing’s peoples posts is not cool especially for a moderator, but then I am hated by most here so I am not surprised.
The only reason I post my trades and observations is that others can learn and when I write things down I also learn. Many of you use my observations to take personal shots at me. It is OK since I have dealt with worse in the real world and won’t be offended by a bunch of strangers on the internet.
For many years back since 2004 I ignored the TA folks. I am still learning and it exciting to see how much one can make by swing trading. I have done poorly simply because instead of trading 3x year I have traded much more. So I am not discouraged about my losses. I don’t use this money to live off or retire anytime soon. However just a few good trades and I will be able to retire. The crazy part is that I can make money while Apple goes to pots.
Look Apple is a great company and will do well in the long run. But we are entering a transition period.
The stock did not drop 39% simply because a bunch of people suddenly panicked. Institutional ownership has dropped and I suspect that is because Apple is buying back so much vs more big boys are buying.
I should note that auto spelling in Apple is a total disaster.
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Post by nwjade on Feb 6, 2019 12:38:39 GMT -8
There's nothing wrong with cycles, other brands go through the same thing, and will continue as we move to 5G, 3D, AR, and additional security features, battery, camera, sensor technology advance. iPhone will become a personal ID card as it gets thinner with combination of voice/eyes/fingerprint identification. Meanwhile, Apple growth engine is now shifted to wearables, e.g. Apple watch, airpods, and they're growing like crazy. I agree 100% Since the introduction of the iPhone from 01/01/07 to date, through all the ups and downs, Apple stock is up 1321% and once the all time high is recaptured it will be up 1750% (Numbers according to Yahoo Finance)
The percentage of people who have been able to capture more than that trading vs investing has got to be extremely low.
Rhetorical question, why go through all the added stress and angst resulting in under performance or worst?
Of course some portfolio management is required regardless of investment style, time frames, risk appetite etc.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 12:49:17 GMT -8
Everyone who could afford a $1500 iPhone has been sold to. Could be, but exactly which phone would that be? (The iPhone XS Max with 1/2 terabyte of storage costs $1,449.) WE have the strongest economy in the world and the highest standard of living. Apple also happens to have the highest market share here as well. Here are the prices of iPhones Max in some countries. www.theverge.com/tech/2018/9/13/17855248/iphone-xs-max-price-cost-comparison-apple-uk-us-india-japan-china-russiaIn China alone it is $1800+. Very few can afford that price. I can afford it but it would be a total waste of money to buy the biggest for $1449. I would rather buy a MacBook for that price. With 62% of sales outside the US for iPHone, those price limits the number of people that are willing to pay that much for a cell phone. Apple offered the XR for $749. Yet even in the US the growth was only 5%. On a side note I have been trying to get my kids to use Apple Music since we pay $15 a month for it. They both tell me that Spotify or Utube is all they need. 50 million subscribers to Apple Music vs Spotify 96 million tells me Apple can do better in that area. I think they bought Beats for headphones and music management. Not sure 5 years later we got our money’s worth and Spotify is pulling away from us with paid subscriptions.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Feb 6, 2019 13:13:01 GMT -8
Could be, but exactly which phone would that be? (The iPhone XS Max with 1/2 terabyte of storage costs $1,449.) WE have the strongest economy in the world and the highest standard of living. Apple also happens to have the highest market share here as well. Here are the prices of iPhones Max in some countries. www.theverge.com/tech/2018/9/13/17855248/iphone-xs-max-price-cost-comparison-apple-uk-us-india-japan-china-russiaIn China alone it is $1800+. Very few can afford that price. I can afford it but it would be a total waste of money to buy the biggest for $1449. I would rather buy a MacBook for that price. With 62% of sales outside the US for iPHone, those price limits the number of people that are willing to pay that much for a cell phone. Apple offered the XR for $749. Yet even in the US the growth was only 5%. On a side note I have been trying to get my kids to use Apple Music since we pay $15 a month for it. They both tell me that Spotify or Utube is all they need. 50 million subscribers to Apple Music vs Spotify 96 million tells me Apple can do better in that area. I think they bought Beats for headphones and music management. Not sure 5 years later we got our money’s worth and Spotify is pulling away from us with paid subscriptions. Sponge, The IP that Apple acquired from Beats turned into Apple music; that is they bought beats for their streaming IP, not their headphones. The main reason Spotify has more listeners is that it's been around longer and is available on more platforms (both iOS and Android). The main difference between Apple Music and Spotify is that Spotify does not yet turn a profit, while Apple Music is bundled into Apple's "Services" revenue and is indeed showing a nice profit with hefty margins. I think both can coexist. I don't think Apple is in any hurry to "dethrone" Spotify. If Spotify doesn't eventually turn a profit, whether by adding premium users or by growing user base, natural selection will take care of things. Meanwhile, Apple's user base continues to grow which will contribute towards healthy growth in Apple music subscriptions. Remember! It's not about total units sold (like with iPhones); it's about the profit you make on the ones you do. I believe the same applies here to Apple Music and number of paid subscribers.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 13:19:31 GMT -8
My issue is not with profits but quality of platform. Why does someone prefer a free service over a paid one? My kids tell me Apple Music sucks. For them Apple Music is free. I love it but they don’t. Improvements have to be made.
When it came out I thought Spotify was toast. They not only added paid subscribers but made a profit. This tells me their platform is better right now.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 6, 2019 13:42:25 GMT -8
Changing’s peoples posts is not cool especially for a moderator, but then I am hated by most here so I am not surprised. FIFY (Fixed It For You) is a standard web mechanism for contradiction which no one who spends as much time on the web as you do would ever interpret as "changing peoples (sic) posts." Your combination of hubris and self-pity is quite amusing. Since84, feel free to remove me as a moderator if you feel it is warranted.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 6, 2019 17:36:13 GMT -8
Changing’s peoples posts is not cool especially for a moderator, but then I am hated by most here so I am not surprised. FIFY (Fixed It For You) is a standard web mechanism for contradiction which no one who spends as much time on the web as you do would ever interpret as "changing peoples (sic) posts." Your combination of hubris and self-pity is quite amusing. +100 Since84, feel free to remove me as a moderator if you feel it is warranted. I would be certain that wouldn't even be a consideration since being a moderator shouldn't prevent a member from full participation on this board.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 6, 2019 18:22:03 GMT -8
Changing’s peoples posts is not cool especially for a moderator, but then I am hated by most here so I am not surprised. Speaking only for myself, sponge, I can assure you...I don't hate you. Heck, I don't even know you! And actually, I can't think of anyone I know personally or online that I *hate*, so don't be so quick to shoot up that particular flare. The only reason I post my trades and observations is that others can learn and when I write things down I also learn. Many of you use my observations to take personal shots at me. It is OK since I have dealt with worse in the real world and won’t be offended by a bunch of strangers on the internet. Don't you get it? For the most part, people on this board are taking shots at your *observations* not at you. OK, I said, for the most part...some of it is at you. For many years back since 2004 I ignored the TA folks. I am still learning and it exciting to see how much one can make by swing trading. I have done poorly simply because instead of trading 3x year I have traded much more. So I am not discouraged about my losses. I don’t use this money to live off or retire anytime soon. However just a few good trades and I will be able to retire. Sponge, if I started playing Lotto...and won...I could help *everyone* on this board retire and still have more wealth than I would ever need. The dangerous part is, when you say, "...just a few good trades and I will be able to retire" is, IMO, *not* a healthy investment strategy, it's a gambler's mantra. The crazy part is that I can make money while Apple goes to pots. The crazy part is that I can make money from AAPL dividends while the Apple share price pulls back. FIFY, sponge. (See, chinacat is correct! It's a standard web mechanism for contradiction) Look Apple is a great company and will do well in the long run. But we are entering a transition period. And do really believe this is the first transition period Apple has entered? The stock did not drop 39% simply because a bunch of people suddenly panicked. Institutional ownership has dropped and I suspect that is because Apple is buying back so much vs more big boys are buying. I should note that auto spelling in Apple is a total disaster. The crash of the Hindenburg, in 1937, was a "total disaster", Apple's autocorrect, perhaps, just needs improvement.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 20:06:10 GMT -8
Those responses is why there are days when there is only one comment on this forum.
In 16 years this forum went from about 70 active members to 2. The rest only chime in to pounce and make everything personal.
In other news futures are red. I think any major move down will happen Friday or Monday..
Puts are going up quickly for March. I am thinking about jumping in on Monday or next Friday on expiration day. My target is SPY around 267.
Angela’s departure has caught many off guard. She got $170 million in 5 years. I am starting to question why TC hired her and paid her that much. There is something here we may never know.
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Post by hledgard on Feb 6, 2019 20:12:21 GMT -8
Yes, who knows what is going on, or is it just a personal desire for a change.
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Post by zzmac on Feb 6, 2019 20:13:06 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Feb 6, 2019 22:47:11 GMT -8
Your comments never fail to surprise. Suggestion: Read your own posts out loud, to yourself, *before* you post them. I rest my case Why don’t you talk about Apple and the future instead what I post. If you hang on to your stock you will do well. However be ready to see a drop in dividend if things really go south. Not sure why everyone gets so upset instead of posting a counter bullish argument. Everything becomes to personal suddenly. Everyone here knows I’m anything but a permabull. But seriously, you’re actually projecting a dividend cut? Are you out of your mind? Get a grip.
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Post by sponge on Feb 6, 2019 23:02:29 GMT -8
Tuffett
I am not projecting a cut in dividend . But if cash flow drops in the next 24 months due to a major drop in sales, we should not rule that out.
In Q1 2020 net income will face a $4 billion short fall simply because taxes will be the same year over year. That’s assuming sales are flat. This last time we were saved by drop in tax rate from 2017 despite a drop of 5% in revenue.
We dropped iPHone sales 15%. What happens if we drop 20% next year? Is it possible? I very much think so. Unless Apple comes out with some amazing features, I can’t see millions suddenly upgrading. We have no massive switchers from Android. The 6S was a very good phone and every model since then. Millions will hang on and wait for the 5G in Sept 2020. And even then they will upgrade in an orderly fashion. The 4G which came with the 5 did not result in massive upgrades. It took two years and exploded with the 6.
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