Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 7, 2019 3:05:27 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 7, 2019 3:17:18 GMT -8
Regarding iPhone pricing, I agree with Sponge.
The top of the line price has increased astronomically. Has the utility or perceived value matched it? The question is not whether it's an attractive product with attractive features. Is it worth almost three times as much?
Most members of my extended family have gotten off the upgrade carousel. They have a hard time conceiving it's worth it -- when they have a perfectly good phone that meets their needs. Some to an absurd degree. How many people do you see making do with a broken screen?
Apple needs to focus on the perceived value. As it is Apple is swimming upstream. We have been trained to have technology prices decrease over time.
Context: There are still 'free' androids out there...
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Post by tuffett on Feb 7, 2019 5:57:03 GMT -8
Regarding iPhone pricing, I agree with Sponge. The top of the line price has increased astronomically. Has the utility or perceived value matched it? The question is not whether it's an attractive product with attractive features. Is it worth almost three times as much? Most members of my extended family have gotten off the upgrade carousel. They have a hard time conceiving it's worth it -- when they have a perfectly good phone that meets their needs. Some to an absurd degree. How many people do you see making do with a broken screen? Apple needs to focus on the perceived value. As it is Apple is swimming upstream. We have been trained to have technology prices decrease over time. Context: There are still 'free' androids out there... Yes, this part is true. I mentioned a few months ago that I was worried prices were shooting up with margins staying flat or down. Apple’s bill of materials is increasing, and the customer doesn’t see the value in that cost being passed on to them. I don’t either. Nobody cares today if you have the newest iPhone or not - the “cool” factor is gone and incremental improvements are not worth a 4 digit price tag. It’s time to optimize costs on iPhone and expand the market, and spend the R&D on improved software and new products.
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Post by macster on Feb 7, 2019 7:46:14 GMT -8
Let’s not forget that the quality and resale value of the build that keeps those iPhones in service many more years than Android phones is the cost intensive design, tooling, materials, and software that goes into manufacturing. Not to forget also the secure walled garden. I doubt it’s wise to cut margins at this time. New designs/5g/services will take care of ’s iPhone sales shortfall over the coming years IMO
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 7, 2019 8:08:32 GMT -8
Don't think anyone here is arguing that iPhones aren't more valuable than Android's. The question is how much more valuable.
Elasticity is not infinite.
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 7, 2019 8:22:34 GMT -8
Apple currently sell many new models of iPhone from $450 to $1200.
And there are low price monthly options through carrier contract (since you're going to be using some type of carriers for your iPhone anyway).
By the way, Apple has net $130+ billions and generating about $60 billions a year.
They have the power to buy back a lot of shares.
If you worry about recession, or worst case scenario, Apple has money and assets (stores all over the world, loads of patents) that they can reshape, stay efficient, and maintain profitability.
By the time such case scenario occurs, they will probably have only so much share left, that the dividend won't be impact.
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Post by sponge on Feb 7, 2019 8:35:59 GMT -8
We can argue for a long time about pricing. Bottom line I don’t think much will change and we will disagree about its impact on sales. But when sales are down 15% (yes I know it is only happening in China) and every economy in the world is growing, it is the canary in the coal mine. I prefer sales to be down because their iPhones don’t have the latest and best technology or most economies are actually contracting. Apple will need a new hot product to make up for this dilemma. This is not a one quarter issue and a new product will take time to truly take off. IPad peaked Q1 2014. 4 years later it is selling at half the amount. Can that happen to the iPhone? www.lifewire.com/how-many-ipads-sold-1994296
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 7, 2019 8:55:05 GMT -8
In case you missed it, PED had a good summary of the Ahrendts situation, including a comment of his own. It was also interesting to me that a theme in the comments section was that the stores are too crowded, despite the fact that it seems like a new location is announced regularly, a problem that many companies would like to have
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 7, 2019 9:09:22 GMT -8
On January 18th, I posted the following: a fabulous burner smartphone for $60/yr including minutes. 9to5toys.com/2019/01/18/zte-zmax-one-smartphone/YES! I bought a 2016 ANDROID SMARTPHONE. I USE my MacBook Pro for watching videos and posting internets and email. I use my iPod touch for music, podcasts, taking photos and videos, and the Ballpark app. I use my android phone for phone calls and google maps. I send and receive 10 phone calls per week. NO APPS IT is my burner phone. $60 for 1500 minutes, one year service, 1.5 GB data. The android phone is running the latest android software. IT is completely ADEQUATE. Imagine if I was an average fella in China or India. WHY would I buy an iPhone? It looks like I could buy a 2016 32gb iPhone SE for $100 today from !! The yearly service from tracfone could be up to $125 hereor I could buy it from Tracfone for $169.00 including 60 days service 1GB 750 minutes. Is it WORTH $100 extra for an iPhone with 60 days service? I WOULD RATHER BUY AAPL STOCK.
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Post by lulli on Feb 7, 2019 9:17:00 GMT -8
Nobody cares today if you have the newest iPhone or not - the “cool” factor is gone and incremental improvements are not worth a 4 digit price tag. I agree with this. But I wonder if this very fact is not actually the best explanation for selling the models from 1 and 2 years ago. That's how they provide choice. If somebody who is not as well informed as we are walks into a shop (or goes to Apple's site) to purchase an iPhone, then their cheapest new option for a new one is $450. Why would they care if that model first appeared 2 years ago instead of two months ago? The only thing that I hate about all this is the fact that I would like the XR hardware inside a SE package. In any case, it is still not clear if it is a mistake to provide more expensive choices to people who like it - it's a way to pay for development costs and make the more advanced technology come down in price more quickly. An informed discussion would need more data disentangled from the regional loss of sales in china. The strategy is also responsible for a clear user-facing technological advantage with respect to android (secure FaceID). There are many things to think about.
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Post by sponge on Feb 7, 2019 9:25:25 GMT -8
I think the XR hardware in an SE for $499 would be a killer product that would turn iPhone sales around.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 7, 2019 9:33:54 GMT -8
In case you missed it, PED had a good summary of the Ahrendts situation, including a comment of his own. It was also interesting to me that a theme in the comments section was that the stores are too crowded, despite the fact that it seems like a new location is announced regularly, a problem that many companies would like to have As YOGI BERRA once said, No one goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded.ONE WEEK after the Vogue article was posted, she was fired! Instead of building ONE magnificent store, you could build 10.........
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Post by sponge on Feb 7, 2019 9:48:39 GMT -8
The small correction I anticipated looks like it may be early. Freed up some cash and will be ready on Thursday to buy some puts.
I don’t think Trump will start the 25% tariffs March 1. He will claim enough progress in talks that they will only go up 10%. The market will still correct but not that much.
The NAFTA deal was a joke. I agree with Democrats that it does not do enough to encourage manufacturing here. So I think Trump will blink with the Chinese but before they show him a little more hurt in the market.
I see aapl down to about 154 by middle of March. June is where the real pain will start.
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 7, 2019 10:04:59 GMT -8
I think most people choose iPhone NOT because of the "cool" factor, but because of the ease of use (alone or with other iOS devices) and because of the apps that they want work much better on iPhone than with other brands.
And most people certainly do not buy iPhone because of the kind of hardware it has inside.
By the way, have you noticed when Apple changed all app icons to more graphical, and how the Apple TV's apps and movie posters seem to pop out when you brushing the remote, Apple has been preparing our eyes to become more adjustable to 3D and hologram.
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Post by 2centsplus on Feb 7, 2019 11:13:43 GMT -8
I have a suggestion regarding short-term price predictions.
I don’t know of any person or company who is able to consistently outperform the market by making price predictions with greater than 50% accuracy. If there is such a person somewhere in the world, could someone please post a link because Lord knows I have tried enough myself.
And if this person truly consistently outperformed the market by any significant amount, wouldn’t he or she eventually become the richest person on earth as the outperformance compounded over time?
Given the above, how likely is it that any of us on this board is able to make short-term price predictions with more than 50% accuracy? And if anyone is able to do this, why not open a separate thread where you post your trades and results, perhaps using a mythical $1,000 account, so that we all may prosper and retire wealthy and be done with any bickering?
Until this happens, I humbly propose that all short-term price predictions be prefaced with:
What I am about to say has a 50% chance of being right and a 50% chance of being wrong, so why am I even saying it?
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 7, 2019 12:34:42 GMT -8
In case you missed it, PED had a good summary of the Ahrendts situation, including a comment of his own. It was also interesting to me that a theme in the comments section was that the stores are too crowded, despite the fact that it seems like a new location is announced regularly, a problem that many companies would like to have As YOGI BERRA once said, No one goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded.ONE WEEK after the Vogue article was posted, she was fired! Instead of building ONE magnificent store, you could build 10......... Artman, could you give us the source article that claimed she was fired? How reputable is it? While executive turnover happens all the time and for a multitude of reasons, firing a senior VP tells a lot more about internal turmoil. I know you would not say she was fired without some article you trust to back it up, (I am assuming you do not have direct access to the boards deliberations) so please pass it on.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 7, 2019 12:44:10 GMT -8
As YOGI BERRA once said, No one goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded.ONE WEEK after the Vogue article was posted, she was fired! Instead of building ONE magnificent store, you could build 10......... Artman, could you give us the source article that claimed she was fired? How reputable is it? While executive turnover happens all the time and for a multitude of reasons, firing a senior VP tells a lot more about internal turmoil. I know you would not say she was fired without some article you trust to back it up, (I am assuming you do not have direct access to the boards deliberations) so please pass it on. from hereOn February 5, 2019, Apple Inc. announced that Angela Ahrendts, Senior Vice President, Retail, would depart Apple, effective April 15, 2019. Ms. Ahrendts is succeeded by Deirdre O’Brien, who assumed the role of Senior Vice President, Retail + People, effective February 5, 2019. YES the BOD fired Angela on 2/5/19............ THIS VERY important job was ADDED to the job the HEAD OF HUMAN RESOURCES had. TRUST me there was turmoil!!!!
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Post by sponge on Feb 7, 2019 12:44:58 GMT -8
This what I said yesterday morning. In looking at the SPY it wants to close between 270-271 by Friday. This means aapl should close at 171 and change. Apple recovered too quickly and now has faded down. So it does not appear to have the momentum of the market to push it above 176. We will have a better picture in about 2.5 hours. We were on our way to 176. I think we will close above 171 tomorrrow. The SPY brought us down. I had noticed a boatload of 270 puts trading yesterday. Looking into next week the SPY wants to slowly go down. We did not go above the 200MA and VIX is now moving up while oil is down. We should be flat for while from here on into next Friday. I believe the high of 175 yesterday will not be seen again for at least 12-16 months.
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Feb 7, 2019 12:45:34 GMT -8
Re:Angela - Is it the dates that are significant there? (i'm a bit naive on these things?)
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 7, 2019 12:49:02 GMT -8
Re:Angela - Is it the dates that are significant there? (i'm a bit naive on these things?) YES Angela gets to retain her stock options.........
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 7, 2019 12:53:29 GMT -8
When one is let go with a pending grant or award, one has a very good case that the termination was to avoid payment of said award. Indeed, it is very challenging to prove otherwise. Many companies agree to simply pay it.
Note: Not a lawyer but that is my understanding.
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Post by deasys on Feb 7, 2019 12:54:23 GMT -8
I prefer sales to be down because their iPhones don’t have the latest and best technology Huh? Are you saying they don't or are you saying you'd prefer that be the reason?
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Post by sponge on Feb 7, 2019 12:59:56 GMT -8
No the reason for it to be down. They have the best technology right now. Face ID is very impressive after using it on my iPad Pro. The camera on the Max and XS is very good as well. The OLED screen is very sharp.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 7, 2019 13:10:31 GMT -8
No the reason for it to be down. They have the best technology right now. Face ID is very impressive after using it on my iPad Pro. The camera on the Max and XS is very good as well. The OLED screen is very sharp. Well, that was an uncharacteristically *positive* post...hmm...who are you, really...and how did you hack sponge's account?
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 7, 2019 13:13:13 GMT -8
From Neil Cybart today: "On April 1, 2019, Ahrendts will see approximately 100,000 shares vest as part of her time-based RSUs worth somewhere around $17M. She will be leaving another 155,000 RSUs behind. This doesn't include performance-based RSUs. " here
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Post by sponge on Feb 7, 2019 13:18:26 GMT -8
No the reason for it to be down. They have the best technology right now. Face ID is very impressive after using it on my iPad Pro. The camera on the Max and XS is very good as well. The OLED screen is very sharp. Well, that was an uncharacteristically *positive* post...hmm...who are you, really...and how did you hack sponge's account? I still think it is overpriced at $1499 for biggest Phone. Despite all this great technology sales are down 15%. It is not meant to be positive but rather in context to why Apple is in trouble despite great products and the latest iPhone. I played with a Note 9 the other day. The owner bragged about the camera and it was not very smooth when I tried zoooming in and out. When the camera turned off I could not on my own figure out how to turn it back on. He had to do it for me and it took several touches and swipes. So our UI is still the best. I will be in China next month. Will try to find out how much trouble they really are in over there. Boots on the ground beats any commentary and analysis from the big boys. I am more interested in overall economy. Will be meeting with companies that manage the big jets for the billionaires.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 7, 2019 13:18:51 GMT -8
Artman, could you give us the source article that claimed she was fired? How reputable is it? While executive turnover happens all the time and for a multitude of reasons, firing a senior VP tells a lot more about internal turmoil. I know you would not say she was fired without some article you trust to back it up, (I am assuming you do not have direct access to the boards deliberations) so please pass it on. from hereOn February 5, 2019, Apple Inc. announced that Angela Ahrendts, Senior Vice President, Retail, would depart Apple, effective April 15, 2019. Ms. Ahrendts is succeeded by Deirdre O’Brien, who assumed the role of Senior Vice President, Retail + People, effective February 5, 2019. YES the BOD fired Angela on 2/5/19............ THIS VERY important job was ADDED to the job the HEAD OF HUMAN RESOURCES had. TRUST me there was turmoil!!!! I am afraid your explanation went over my head. I get that they announced that she would depart February 5 and that they would combine departments. I don't get how you conclude that she was fired from that or that there was any kind of turmoil. She may have decided to leave for any number of reasons and the board may have seen that combining People and Retail made a lot of sense. She may have decided to leave because she is vested and now wants to run for President. I don't know why she left and it sounds like you may not either. Implying turmoil without anything to back it up is not helpful. If you have more information, please share it. If not, perhaps in the future you would consider phrasing things a little differently, like "This departure may, in my opinion, be indicative of internal turmoil" I think that would be better received.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 7, 2019 13:23:16 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 7, 2019 13:58:39 GMT -8
TURMOIL As one who worked at very large corporations, I can say: The head of Human resources is a certain kind of person. The VP of retail is a certain kind of person. In a large corporation, they are never the same person.As a retail person, Angela was a fashionista. She was great for that. As the head of HR Dierdre must be great. there was turmoilI love me some twitter. I follow news folks. I also have "lists". A list on twitter allows you to follow certain folks involved with certain jobs or interests. I call up a certain twitter list to see the current tweets about that subject. I have a list on weather. It has everyone I can find who tweets with knowledge on SAINT PAUL weather. I have lists on: MLB Twins, local news, local traffic and others. I have a list on retail employees. The retail employees regularly tweet about their customers and bosses. there was turmoil.
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Post by davidstevenson on Feb 7, 2019 14:02:14 GMT -8
from hereOn February 5, 2019, Apple Inc. announced that Angela Ahrendts, Senior Vice President, Retail, would depart Apple, effective April 15, 2019. Ms. Ahrendts is succeeded by Deirdre O’Brien, who assumed the role of Senior Vice President, Retail + People, effective February 5, 2019. YES the BOD fired Angela on 2/5/19............ THIS VERY important job was ADDED to the job the HEAD OF HUMAN RESOURCES had. TRUST me there was turmoil!!!! I am afraid your explanation went over my head. I get that they announced that she would depart February 5 and that they would combine departments. I don't get how you conclude that she was fired from that or that there was any kind of turmoil. She may have decided to leave for any number of reasons and the board may have seen that combining People and Retail made a lot of sense. She may have decided to leave because she is vested and now wants to run for President. I don't know why she left and it sounds like you may not either. Implying turmoil without anything to back it up is not helpful. If you have more information, please share it. If not, perhaps in the future you would consider phrasing things a little differently, like "This departure may, in my opinion, be indicative of internal turmoil" I think that would be better received. There probably was turmoil, but not where Artman posits. Her two adult children did not accompany her to California, but stayed in London which AA still refers to as a magical city. Plus, she lives and breathes FASHION (see any photo of her), even at Apple.
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