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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 20, 2012 3:02:01 GMT -8
A little bit green here in PM....let's hope we stay green.
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Post by rickag on Dec 20, 2012 4:37:41 GMT -8
FuturesSo far futures mildly green.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 20, 2012 5:08:43 GMT -8
Recap of 2012: 4 months up 2 months down 2 months up 4 months down
Next - WAG: 2-4 months up
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Post by appledoc on Dec 20, 2012 5:18:14 GMT -8
Here's what I posted yesterday: We just hit a low of 525.47 and bounced off. AH low yesterday was 525.25. Holding here would be awesome. Otherwise we are looking at 522 > 519 to hold for me to stay with my amateur bullish EW count. If the count is correct, 501.23 was the bottom, and we are finishing wave 4 of the initial 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave off the bottom. Wave 5 will send us into the 540s, possibly as high as 550. An abc correction after that could send us as low as the 520s. BUT, once we're done there, we're taking out 555 quickly. I think this could come as early as the end of next week. Just hold tight, we're going to figure this out soon (I feel like I've been saying that for weeks though :
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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 20, 2012 5:26:06 GMT -8
A very interesting article about Amazon and its potential future/failure and some thoughts on its battle with AAPL. Amazon's Smoke And Mirrors Are FadingSome of quotes from the article: A company that's growing revenue at a tremendous pace, but seeing earnings decline at an even faster pace. While that may not seem unusual, you have to consider that this stock is up nearly 44% over the past year, and nearly hit its 52-week high on Tuesday. That, for a company that can't turn a profit, just raised a ton of debt, and loves to sell products at a loss. If you haven't figured it out already, I'm talking about Amazon (AMZN). Amazon's latest race toward new highs is even more surprising than the last. Unfortunately, this company is in worse shape than many realize, and eventually, the stock seems destined to drop. Amazon might have been great for longs in the past, but the smoke and mirrors surrounding this company seem to be fading. Right now, everyone wants to be Apple. Apple has three of the hottest products on the planet, and could produce close to $50 billion in net income during its current fiscal year. Amazon might have trouble producing $50 million in net income. Amazon's spending keeps increasing, more so than the company seems to be able to afford at this point. Amazon loves to focus on revenue growth, even at the cost of earnings. At some point, that will catch up to it, and recently, it has started to. Amazon reported a huge third-quarter loss, and its fourth-quarter guidance may be hinting to another loss, despite analyst projections for a profit. Even when Amazon reports bad numbers or gives soft guidance, the stock rebounds almost right away. Amazon is not being held to the same high standards that other top names like Apple and Google are. But if Amazon starts losing money on a more consistent basis, margins continue to contract, and the excessive spending causes it to need more money, expect Amazon to be held to a higher standard. Amazon's smoke and mirrors are fading, and trying to produce a smartphone in a very competitive space seems to be its plan going forward. Amazon made a valiant effort into the tablet space, but it appears that Apple's latest creation, the iPad mini, is clearly impacting Amazon's Kindle Fire.
Given all of the issues surrounding Amazon, you would think this name would be a great short candidate. There in lies the problem. The stock is a short candidate, but has not been a very good short, except for the few minutes right after earnings are reported. Over longer time periods, Amazon has just rallied higher and higher, burning short after short. Eventually, if Amazon's problems continue, the shorts will win out, but trying to figure out exactly when that will be is the million dollar question. But if Amazon continues at its current pace, that day is coming closer and closer.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 20, 2012 5:30:23 GMT -8
Here's what I posted yesterday: We just hit a low of 525.47 and bounced off. AH low yesterday was 525.25. Holding here would be awesome. Otherwise we are looking at 522 > 519 to hold for me to stay with my amateur bullish EW count. If the count is correct, 501.23 was the bottom, and we are finishing wave 4 of the initial 1-2-3-4-5 impulse wave off the bottom. Wave 5 will send us into the 540s, possibly as high as 550. An abc correction after that could send us as low as the 520s. BUT, once we're done there, we're taking out 555 quickly. I think this could come as early as the end of next week. Just hold tight, we're going to figure this out soon (I feel like I've been saying that for weeks though : Love your plain English analysis - keep it up - it's helpful!
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Post by appledoc on Dec 20, 2012 5:31:38 GMT -8
What is Amazon's distribution network worth? It has to be worth billions, right?
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Post by Rupert on Dec 20, 2012 6:10:50 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Thursday 12/20/2012
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 20, 2012 6:15:15 GMT -8
Bernstein cut PT on AAPL from $800 to $750 citing uncertainty with earnings. Maestro...kindly cue the penguins.
Every time these johnny come lately analysts cut their PT on AAPL we are now seeing the stock trade up as it is a further indication of a bottom. Again, I ask, where is the accountability with these knuckle-heads?
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Post by rob_london on Dec 20, 2012 6:16:55 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Dec 20, 2012 6:20:11 GMT -8
Bernstein cut PT on AAPL from $800 to $750 citing uncertainty with earnings. Maestro...kindly cue the penguins. Every time these johnny come lately analysts cut their PT on AAPL we are now seeing the stock trade up as it is a further indication of a bottom. Again, I ask, where is the accountability with these knuckle-heads? Oh no! Don't cut that 6.25% from the PT. How will I ever sleep at night? PM looking good!
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Post by appledoc on Dec 20, 2012 6:21:29 GMT -8
Love your plain English analysis - keep it up - it's helpful! Thanks! I write it all out because I can barely understand the terminology myself right now.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 20, 2012 6:41:50 GMT -8
Failed to hold the gap up again...how many times has that happened over the past few months?!
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Post by frqntflr on Dec 20, 2012 6:54:30 GMT -8
Failed to hold the gap up again...how many times has that happened over the past few months?! hate the 'gap & crap'(tm) -- my least favourite pattern
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Post by frqntflr on Dec 20, 2012 6:56:12 GMT -8
By the way, has anyone checked in on the Rally Monkey(tm) lately?? Is he out of intensive care yet??
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 6:58:42 GMT -8
Failed to hold the gap up again...how many times has that happened over the past few months?! It has become a weapon of wealth destruction.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 20, 2012 6:59:18 GMT -8
Failed to hold the gap up again...how many times has that happened over the past few months?! The ramp in the last 40 minutes of the PM had "pump and dump" written all over it in very large letters.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 20, 2012 7:00:42 GMT -8
Failed to hold the gap up again...how many times has that happened over the past few months?! It has become a weapon of wealth destruction transfer. There. Fixed it for ya.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 20, 2012 7:03:17 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 7:08:03 GMT -8
It has become a weapon of wealth destruction transfer. There. Fixed it for ya. both
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 7:15:59 GMT -8
That means they will lose less money so the stock must go up. After reading that I thought I was going to be sick. Moving from 2.37 EPS to 2.60 EPS. A .23c gain (10%) and that means a higher stock price, really? The forward projections are pitiful.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 7:28:36 GMT -8
OK, the US patent office rejects Apple's "pinch to zoom" patent and now some company in Brazil says they own the iphone name. Another shakedown, this time in Brazil. Apple has been killed by the patent office lately. Does anyone have more info?
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Post by kloot on Dec 20, 2012 7:42:34 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 20, 2012 8:14:00 GMT -8
A snowstorm cutting across the center of Wisconsin has largely shut down any outdoor activity except snowplows and shovels.
The crows may take up position in the pole shed. That's one place that won't be clean for a couple years.
On the whole, its a fairly narrow storm. Over half the state is not affected.
Aspirin bottle waits silently.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 20, 2012 8:27:21 GMT -8
Not abandoning the bullish thesis yet. Below 519 and I think we see new lows.
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Post by sponge on Dec 20, 2012 9:12:47 GMT -8
Not abandoning the bullish thesis yet. Below 519 and I think we see new lows. I thought it was 514. But I agree. The new lows may not come until the new year. Given the amount of calls 31k at 500, I think there will be a battle to drag us below that at OE in Jan. We need to get to 550 in the next two weeks, or we are in trouble. The stock is now very wounded and it will take much more then earnings to get it to ATH this spring. Not happy with how we are ending the year. Last year we were recovering in Dec, and this year we keep going lower. I figured worst case we would be at $600 right now, not flirting with $500. TC better announce a nice dividend increase or buyback by February, otherwise we may be in for a very tough 2013.
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Post by lance on Dec 20, 2012 9:22:39 GMT -8
As a long term investor I have dramatically reduced watching AAPL. No real point nothing positive coming near term. Mainly just daily price target reductions and pointless over painicking. Until the stock settles out and starts to make a firm base to this foolish downtrend no real point watching.
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Post by rickag on Dec 20, 2012 9:40:44 GMT -8
RANT OVER
I've been talking to myself and just thought I'd spare the rest of you. Carry on.
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Post by kloot on Dec 20, 2012 9:46:57 GMT -8
I miss the days of Red's quarterly swing trade. this sux.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 20, 2012 10:10:29 GMT -8
520 gap filled.
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