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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 20, 2012 10:19:16 GMT -8
As a long term investor I have dramatically reduced watching AAPL. No real point nothing positive coming near term. Mainly just daily price target reductions and pointless over painicking. Until the stock settles out and starts to make a firm base to this foolish downtrend no real point watching. Lance, when I was exclusively a long-term investor, I never watched intraday crap. I just bought regularly in companies with exemplary fundamentals -- current price didn't matter, so I inevitably bought some high, some low -- and I still believe that's the best way to invest for the long-term. Don't watch this unless you have some compelling reason.
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Post by ericinaustin on Dec 20, 2012 10:20:47 GMT -8
What is Amazon's distribution network worth? It has to be worth billions, right? Thats like asking what is M. Dell's house worth. Well, it cost 15 million to build but it is very unique to him and the area and few can afford it. Amazons network is unique to them and their product mix and might not fit very well with other companies . It might be worth a few billion but not the 50 billion it cost to make. eric in Austin
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Post by rob_london on Dec 20, 2012 10:52:06 GMT -8
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Post by lance on Dec 20, 2012 11:17:06 GMT -8
Lovemyipad, Thank you for the advice. I agree with your advice. I normally didn't watch AAPL too intently but during this dip I began watching more due to the steep fall just adding unnecessary over analysis to my day. I have decided to reduce watching intraday and focus more on overall trend and purchasing when I can.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 20, 2012 11:30:53 GMT -8
Too funny. Maybe he takes the same MS word document each year, changes the phone model number and the dates.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 20, 2012 11:31:32 GMT -8
i have a positive story. it's specific, but it's still positive:
Just got back from lunch. One of our big plastic parts vendors from China took us out to a nice lunch for the holidays. Think of him as the liaison between our company, and the factory molding our parts. He lives in VA, but goes back and forth to China very very often.
So anyway he just got back from China yesterday, and he pulls out his Iphone to show us some pictures of the new factory. I asked him, 'Are Iphones a big thing out in China?' He lit up and went off for a few minutes, about how they are really a desired item. He said that the avg chinese worker makes 10% of what an american makes, but they will save up a full month's pay just to get the new phone. A few of the engineers on the line who he was just there with, they make the equivalent of $800 in a month. He said they both just got iphones, and were saving for a long time just to have them. It really is a desired status item.
He said that 20% of people now have iphones there. My assumptions were that he was basing it off of who he sees directly, and not the overall ccountry sales #s. I think his point was that the # of iphones he sees out there now is visibly growing. He also said the network there isn't nearly as fast as it is here, so he thinks as that gets better, more and more people will get the phone.
Anyway, I know not all of this is new info and it is just one person's experience out there, but it sounded very good for the future.
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jz
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Post by jz on Dec 20, 2012 11:31:36 GMT -8
I miss the days of Red's quarterly swing trade. this sux. Well said.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 20, 2012 11:36:25 GMT -8
Boy, if you think you miss it.....think how I feel! ( let's see....it was buy, hold, run up into earnings, sell,...wait a few weeks...buy the dip, hold....run up into earnings,,,).
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2012 11:41:38 GMT -8
Well at least it's going up now after filling the gap earlier...hopefully we can close green for the day.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 20, 2012 11:42:54 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Dec 20, 2012 11:45:29 GMT -8
The gaps I want filled are $700.01 to $695.12 $644.61 to $642.06 $586.19 to $581.80 $575.84 to $569.25 $539.00 to $537.64 but I'll live with the $520 gap for today, and pray we don't fill the gap with "no name" from the month with "no name", that shall never be mentioned or whispered again.
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Post by jiarossi2000 on Dec 20, 2012 11:46:55 GMT -8
I read the message below by Weezy from the Braeburn group and to me it makes a lot of sense. Points I agree with is it seems Tim / Apple is guiding to a more realistic number. Is this why the stock has come down so sharply?
But with that said the PR released for the IP5 in China seemed to say to me anyway, relax earnings will be good do not panic. I don't agree with his comments on the iPhone and lack of innovation. Not sure what he expected those laser BS keyboards shown on youtube? It's got a great build, light, fast, and LTE. At this point I assumed we would be at all time highs. I would not be surprised to see 13.8 to 14.25 eps. I assume the street would not like the numbers. Who knows if we reported those numbers, I then expect the pps to tank, it might go the other way since its so beaten up. Any thoughts? I'm all ears.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The same folks dreaming of 40% y/o/y eps grown are the same folks who thought 3Q was going to be a blowout. As a group, lets learn from our mistakes. I mean no disrespect as I am a former permabull myself but lets face it Tim Cook does not lie. Apple guided 8.65 in 3Q and reported 9.32 while professional and amateur analysts like us were calling for a blowout.
Tim Cook knew that ip5 was going to debut before end of 4Q. He STILL guided conservatively because even the supply chain guru himself knew that supply would be constrained. Apple went on to report a modest 8.67 eps vs 7.65 guidance.
Tim Cook announced during the ipad mini keynote that the 100th million ipad had just been sold. This sent analysts scurrying. Why, because again Tim Cook does not lie!
On the last cc, management explicitly emphasized that the cost curve has yet to peak and Tim Cook said himself he has idea of when supply will meet demand. We can be assured that they already knew the iphone 5 would debut in China before the New Year. Apple is now guiding a paltry 11.75 eps. It is quite feasible, given one less week in the quarter, that Apple will fail to match the 13.87 eps baseline from last year. Imagine how short term investors will scramble if TTM actually goes DOWN after earnings! Wall Street will continue hyping up revenue and setting unreasonable expectations.
Those of you who have read my comments on Apple succeeding in China know that I am a vocal advocate of this company. However, I was greatly disappointed by the lack of innovation in the iphone5. Apple must not take their luxury status in China for granted, as they are a relatively new brand in China and as more and more users are recruited, the phone becomes “less unique” as a status symbol. Chinese consumers are fickle and if something more novel and expensive ($ equates to status) is released by a competitor, then the tide may quickly turn. Furthermore, the release of imaps was an utter disaster, especially for urbanites in Shanghai and Beijing, where pedestrians such as those in NYC still prefer Google Maps. Also, from a political standpoint, Apple must be careful on how it designates the Senkaku islands in dispute with Japan. Adding a second set of islands is not an adequate solution and risks alienating the upper class, may of whom have close ties to the government.
Robert, I overlooked your excellent point about margins rising into sales of iphone 5s. I think thats worth repeating - 5s will require significantly less capital expenditure than the transition from 4s to 5. As such, long term bulls like me are going into hibernation until margins catch up. Jan 2014 earnings, assuming it includes China Mobile debut, will be the true blockbuster earnings we’ve been waiting for. Jan 2013 on the other hand will be a mere formality IMO in line with Cook’s guidance. I’m predicting 13.80 eps on 38% margin.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 20, 2012 12:15:52 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 12:45:52 GMT -8
Spoke too soon on Sacconaghi.
Price target cut $50 to $750. Heh.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 12:48:08 GMT -8
A bit long that Braeburn post, but what about iPhone 5 ISN'T innovative? I'd like to know what useful and practical features short of maybe NFC that Apple could've realistically added with high consumer uptake. A6 and a new form factor are much less trivial feats than Apple's team make them seem...
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Post by terps530 on Dec 20, 2012 13:02:01 GMT -8
A bit long that Braeburn post, but what about iPhone 5 ISN'T innovative? I'd like to know what useful and practical features short of maybe NFC that Apple could've realistically added with high consumer uptake. A6 and a new form factor are much less trivial feats than Apple's team make them seem... I just started writing about samsungs commercial, but then looked up NFC and found out that is what that is. I would add haptic technology to that list. I saw it a few years ago when a touch screen vendor came in, and I had thought that would be the iphone's next direction. I think it's silly either way. Each phone has innovations in its own way. These people who cry about innovation would only be happy if Apple came out with a way to put a spaceship in the palm of their hand.
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Post by erictheoracle on Dec 20, 2012 13:45:30 GMT -8
AFB sounds like a 12 step program with people in different stages of recovery.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 13:46:10 GMT -8
Everytime I hear that "fickle" meme I wonder. What's fickle about build quality, a good (yes, does need still more improvements) mobile OS and a nice combo of speed (CPU and connectivity) and battery life?
Apple isn't best-in-class (or at least at the top) in consumer hardware as jewelry by accident. Jony Ive is Mr. Anti-Flash and even as I used my "old" iPhone 4 recently, it shows.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 20, 2012 14:14:09 GMT -8
AFB sounds like a 12 step program with people in different stages of recovery. At times like this it is. Right now it is take one day at a time, some days are better than others (although not many in past 90) and accept the things I cannot change. Now I'm going to get some coffee with a bit of Grappa, call me if you need to talk :-)
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Post by charles on Dec 20, 2012 14:21:46 GMT -8
AFB sounds like a 12 step program with people in different stages of recovery. Eric, you've got to get outside and fire up that snowblower! If you get a chance send some of the white stuff to the Toronto area please!
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 20, 2012 14:28:21 GMT -8
Eric, you've got to get outside and fire up that snowblower! If you get a chance send some of the white stuff to the Toronto area please! Toronto isn't about to get any real snow for a while. I don't think I saw any real accumulation downtown Toronto last year. Vancouver has already had more snow.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 20, 2012 14:35:51 GMT -8
BTW has anyone heard anything from Andy Zaky? No articles, no one liners or comments?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2012 14:37:56 GMT -8
A bit long that Braeburn post, but what about iPhone 5 ISN'T innovative? I'd like to know what useful and practical features short of maybe NFC that Apple could've realistically added with high consumer uptake. A6 and a new form factor are much less trivial feats than Apple's team make them seem... Completely agree - the iPhone 5 is the thinnest, strongest, most powerful smartphone ever made - and it includes LTE in that tiny profile.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 14:46:18 GMT -8
I should also add, "which doesn't interfere with Apple's aesthetics and 'design limitations' which many of us here have known for years now". I mean, the closest thing you'll get to a slideout _anything_ in a iDevice aside from the SIM tray is the touch loop.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 20, 2012 14:49:25 GMT -8
The RIMM EARNINGS CALL is on. I can compare it to an AMZN call. Everything is great. We are losing money.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 20, 2012 14:52:57 GMT -8
AFB sounds like a 12 step program with people in different stages of recovery. Ah, never ceases to amaze when the Gopher sticks his head out of his hole. Maybe a Groundhog? We know you're smart, AFB is dumb, we get it.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 20, 2012 15:08:56 GMT -8
A bit long that Braeburn post, but what about iPhone 5 ISN'T innovative? I'd like to know what useful and practical features short of maybe NFC that Apple could've realistically added with high consumer uptake. A6 and a new form factor are much less trivial feats than Apple's team make them seem... Completely agree - the iPhone 5 is the thinnest, strongest, most powerful smartphone ever made - and it includes LTE in that tiny profile. I agree with all of you. It is clearly the best phone on the market with a robust ecosystem that is simply easy and elegant to use BUT its often about expectations. The expectations are for something that people can't even identify or articulate which puts Apple in a situation where given no definable expectation they will arguably fail in the eyes of many. Look at RIM: rewarded for loosing less money than expected, rewarded for finally coming out with a phone that may equal some competitors: a year late. All this despite they have been loosing major enterprise and government customers in droves. The apple naysayers have defined the argument by saying Apple can't be successful without the next "wow" thing (that no one can define). Although this has helped us because customers were ready at the time of the first iPhone for a vendor that separated itself from a pack that just talked up tech specs at each release (and many still do). However at this time given we have separated from the pack, why this is not MORE about revenue and profit is the most frustrating thing to me. Instead we sit languishing at the end (I hope) of a three month decline. Sorry for the rant but in essence this is the nature of Apple stock at this time.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 15:10:28 GMT -8
Apple's been failing in the eyes of pundits for years now.
Let the market decide, not the media. The truth is in the quarterly reports and Apple better deliver in fiscal Q1 and Q2. (Not a matter of Apple surviving - arguably it can coast Microsoft-style for a good few years, easy. It's a matter of AAPL remaining this scale of megacap.)
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Dec 20, 2012 15:11:48 GMT -8
I sure hope that this is just Purgatory, but right now it feels like Hell (a little [ex-]Catholic humor)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 15:13:31 GMT -8
How about "rangebound".
If you're an options trader who's run into a rough patch (join the club) or initiated an AAPL common buy over 550 you have my sympathy. Otherwise, you're fine.
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