Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 11, 2019 3:25:47 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 11, 2019 3:28:37 GMT -8
I'll be traveling in the near future with limited access to the internet. It would be great to get some volunteer(s) to start the thread in my absence. It really doesn't involve much effort -- and you're threads don't need to look like mine...
Please PM me if you're willing to step in.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 11, 2019 8:42:02 GMT -8
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Post by rmhe1999 on Feb 11, 2019 8:58:08 GMT -8
Um, yeah shouldn't it? This is 2018 news that Apple has already reported during its FY19 Q1 conference call. *sigh. Continuation of the endless FUD cycle.
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Post by sponge on Feb 11, 2019 9:05:47 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Feb 11, 2019 9:19:41 GMT -8
Um, yeah shouldn't it? This is 2018 news that Apple has already reported during its FY19 Q1 conference call. *sigh. Continuation of the endless FUD cycle. True. However it is only relevant because it adds color to the whole smartphone market in China. This is not going to be a one quarter issue. Apple Insider points out in a similar article that price is the number one factor in China. if rumors are true that Apple will release AirPods 2 for $199, then that should be a sign that we won’t see any drops in prices anytime soon for many of Apple’s products. In regards to the stock, we are moving away slowly from the 176 target. I can see it flat for one more week, before we drop. Ready with cash to buy puts. Delayed the purchase by almost two weeks. The amount of the drop will depend on how much Trumps caves to the Chinese. A Bloomberg opinion piece this morning makes references a rumor that Trump told his negotiators to make a deal any deal since he is not happy with the market volatility. SPY is pricing in a 10% drop by middle of March.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 11, 2019 9:43:58 GMT -8
"All models are wrong, but some are useful"
The same can be said about assumptions.
Averaging out inside stock sales into "anytime" and "8 days after a buyback announcement" sounds good, right?
But what limits are set on when insiders can sell shares? 15 years ago, "insiders" at Apple were limited to half the quarter, basically the middle 6 of 12 weeks. A friend at Clorox who is now high enough up to be affected has the same thing. I believe it's a pretty common practice that someone looked up on the SEC site the last time this came up, basically not a hard and fast rule, but a commonly followed "safe harbor" practice.
And then there's the whole market gaming thing, where both buybacks and stock sales are more likely to happen on the second half (or even tail end) of an upswing.
Put a couple of these things in, and don't take account of them when pulling your data, and $100k average vs $500k post buyback announcement might not be as big of a deal as initially perceived.
But just like continued negative stories about iPhone sales in China, the sensationalized stories get more traffic, and hence more payoff. Maybe that's a thing someone should write about.
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Post by hledgard on Feb 11, 2019 15:03:10 GMT -8
Who owns the company if Apple buys back all public shares?
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Post by sponge on Feb 11, 2019 15:26:40 GMT -8
Who owns the company if Apple buys back all public shares? It will be privately owned. The bigger issue is that eps is not growing organically but rather by stock buybacks. They keep issuing stock and management is chashing out. Let’s see who is left in 5 years.
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 11, 2019 16:12:12 GMT -8
Who owns the company if Apple buys back all public shares? Luckychoices.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 11, 2019 16:13:23 GMT -8
This is really more about being a contractor, instead of an employee. While one person was quoted in the article saying that Facebook and Google treated there contractors a little more like employees, there was also an article in the last week or so about how Google contractors could't go to the big internal meetings. ...just like how at Apple, contractors couldn't go to the big townhall meetings. But the contractor vs employee this has been going on for ages, and it's based on the laws behind it. They are only able to keep contractors as contractors for x number of months, something like 18-24. When I was a contractor at Apple, it was generally understood that you would be hired or not by about 15 months, though with hiring freezes, I think I was hired closer to after 18 months. Times change, but I believe all the 8-12 contractors that came in around when I did to the server group were eventually hired. That is, excluding the 2 let go for theft, and one that sued or was going to sue for not being hired. The toughest part was having to deal with a timecard, and not getting to go to the occasional all-hands meetings. We could buy our medical through the contractor company, and I don't think there were any sick days, no vacation days, and if there were holidays it might have been 6 per year. OTOH, even at the national labs they have had these issues. 25-30 years ago, Lawrence Livermore National Lab was having legal problems that they were treating contractors too much like employees, whether that was keeping them around too long, or just the tasks and responsibilities they had. The story does paint Apple a little dark, and I'm sure there are some tasks (like map verification) that might not be stepping stones to becoming a normal employee. But it should be taken into account that companies are not legally allowed to treat contractors as employees, and thus there is always going to be a difference, even if it varies at different companies.
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