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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 21, 2012 1:11:37 GMT -8
Glad that this is Friday. Would like to finally relax a couple of days and forget this whole mess. Off to France to see friends for the holidays.
This morning, the lack of a resolution to the fiscal cliff negotiations have depressed the markets.
AAPL is bouncing between 511 US and 514 US on the Frankfurt Exchange.
Prepare for a rough ride!
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Post by rob_london on Dec 21, 2012 1:23:00 GMT -8
StockTwits guy made a good observation. The top ranked Apple analyst raised his PT to $775 last Monday but apparently it did not get reported on CNBC... stks.co/lHH8
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 21, 2012 3:37:13 GMT -8
Even if we were at higher levels we would be upset that the politicians had put us in this situation -- but it's so much worse and certainly more stressful since we are at critical technical levels and the bears will undoubtedly press their bets. I am not disgusted by the inaction in Washington - as a U.S. citizen - I am absolutely repulsed at so many levels. I now believe that the plan was to go over the cliff all along and then to bring a bill to cut the rate on those families making $250k and below while allowing top rates to be activated for all else. Then one party gets its way automatically and they don't have to argue any further and burn political backing. I believe Wheeles said it all along but like any child at Christmas time - I had hope- and believed for the impossible - that we could come to compromise and move on. I would have thought that the tragic events at Sandy Hook Elementary would have put everything in perspective. I guess Washington was untouched. Sorry for the rant...but couple this with today's Quad witching expiration....well maybe the Mayans are right....day isn't over yet.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 21, 2012 3:46:22 GMT -8
I'm hearing Boehner press conference at 10:00 a.m. but I'm trying to get confirmation on that...I guess Congress is trying to do what the Mayans were unable to accomplish. PS Boehner press conference for 10:00 am has been confirmed.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 21, 2012 4:02:00 GMT -8
I'm hearing Boehner press conference at 10:00 a.m. but I'm trying to get confirmation on that...I guess Congress is trying to do what the Mayans were unable to accomplish. not funny. FWIW: I am a big fan of the fiscal cliff. Cut everything by 20%. Raise taxes on "rich". SAVE social security & medicare by "raising" Payroll taxes on everyone. $16 trillion will become $20 trillion very fast if we are not careful. It is not about me. It is about my sweet innocent Grandkids.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 21, 2012 4:05:17 GMT -8
In other news: DELL to be removed from QQQ and S&P 100.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 21, 2012 4:08:59 GMT -8
I'm hearing Boehner press conference at 10:00 a.m. but I'm trying to get confirmation on that...I guess Congress is trying to do what the Mayans were unable to accomplish. not funny. FWIW: I am a big fan of the fiscal cliff. Cut everything by 20%. Raise taxes on "rich". SAVE social security & medicare by "raising" Payroll taxes on everyone. $16 trillion will become $20 trillion very fast if we are not careful. It is not about me. It is about my sweet innocent Grandkids. No it is not funny and it wasn't really intended to be funny. I would hope that as sane citizens we all wanted a resolution. Not everyone is going to get everything they want - that's why it is called compromise.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 21, 2012 4:18:50 GMT -8
On a more positive note: I believe AAPL brings iPhone 5 to 18-20 countries today.
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Post by frqntflr on Dec 21, 2012 4:39:45 GMT -8
not related to AAPL or the cliff or ... but check out the action on RIMM
closing yesterday just above $14, it peaked at $15.50 after hours and has now fallen to below $12.50 ... wow ... apparently investors are concerned about future services revenue falling off a 'cliff' ... it's amazing they're still able to generate such revenue ... who charges service fees anyways?
in other news, RIM and Nokia settled patent dispute, hmmm
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Post by lance on Dec 21, 2012 4:52:43 GMT -8
Downtrend confirmed to continue by this premarket dump.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 21, 2012 5:06:29 GMT -8
On a more positive note: I believe AAPL brings iPhone 5 to 18-20 countries today. Unfortunately I think the sentiment towards Apple is so bearish at the moment, even if they announced that they had signed agreements will all 900+ carriers in the world, the shares would still continue their downward trend
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Post by osx10 on Dec 21, 2012 5:07:32 GMT -8
Do we have any hope of an updraft based off of Options expirations or Max Pain?
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Post by appledoc on Dec 21, 2012 5:10:07 GMT -8
Do we have any hope of an updraft based off of Options expirations or Max Pain? IMO, no. Max pain has meant absolutely nothing since the decline started.
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Post by nagrani on Dec 21, 2012 5:11:22 GMT -8
Yea. Agree. I think Travis is a smart guy but probably smokes a lot of cheeba.
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Post by lance on Dec 21, 2012 5:35:31 GMT -8
It will be close for AAPL to may be end the week down depending if it closes above or below 509.79. If it closes below that would be 11 of the last 13 weeks negative. Lets say AAPL closes at say 505 just for a wild guess. That means AAPL has been losing an average of 15 dollars a share each week you held the stock since the positive weekly close at 700.09. If this pace continues AAPL will be around 445 a share if the earnings are in 4 weeks, will be 400 in 7 weeks ie (February) and 300 in 13.7 weeks (March). Apple better provide a catalyst in next month to reverse this free fall. My hope is it is the earnings.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 21, 2012 5:42:21 GMT -8
Do we have any hope of an updraft based off of Options expirations or Max Pain? IMO, no. Max pain has meant absolutely nothing since the decline started. +1.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 21, 2012 5:58:03 GMT -8
I'm showing premarket low (thus far) at 510.33
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 21, 2012 6:09:20 GMT -8
Renee asked last night about disaster insurance. I put on cheap, throwaway hedges earlier in the week. I almost closed them out yesterday, then reminded myself: hedge not trade. Closed 1/2 and rolled 1/2 to next week.
I believe (WAG) that any dip below 500 would be short-lived but excruciating painful, as it would likely trigger more forced selling. A hedge can be one tiny candy cane in a stocking full of coal.
Short-term, I'm bullish over 514 and bearish below.
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Post by nkmho on Dec 21, 2012 6:11:13 GMT -8
Yea. Agree. I think Travis is a smart guy but probably smokes a lot of cheeba. Well, Travis does have a range setup for today, but it's marked in red, as it has been in the past few weeks, to indicate it doesn't really apply, and he wouldn't any money on it.
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Post by nkmho on Dec 21, 2012 6:13:19 GMT -8
I think the only upside for me today is that I picked up some RIMM put spreads yesterday that should cash out at near max value.
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Post by Rupert on Dec 21, 2012 6:20:31 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 12/21/2012
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Post by terps530 on Dec 21, 2012 6:22:49 GMT -8
well it'll definitely be a gap down, so then we go right back up and fill it right? That's how it always works the other way...
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Post by rickag on Dec 21, 2012 6:30:04 GMT -8
I have prepared myself mentally for a downside below $470 and possibly below $440 putting AAPL at a P/E of 10 or less.
To bad I didn't prepare myself financially in my options account. I will prepare myself in my core AAPL holdings and buy in at below $470.
I believe this is the definition of a market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
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Post by rickag on Dec 21, 2012 6:32:39 GMT -8
well it'll definitely be a gap down, so then we go right back up and fill it right? That's how it always works the other way... Unfortunately not. The gaps I want filled are $700.01 to $695.12 $644.61 to $642.06 $586.19 to $581.80 $575.84 to $569.25 $539.00 to $537.64 Good luck to everyone.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 21, 2012 6:32:49 GMT -8
iPad, what's your 90 minute rule with opening gaps? That if we don't fill them we'll stay above (below) them for the day?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 21, 2012 7:14:52 GMT -8
Do we have any hope of an updraft based off of Options expirations or Max Pain? IMO, no. Max pain has meant absolutely nothing since the decline started. To my mind, max pain only seems to work 90% of the time with weekly options, and with monthlies it almost never works.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 21, 2012 8:14:06 GMT -8
Yea. Agree. I think Travis is a smart guy but probably smokes a lot of cheeba. He's baaaaack! LOL, just was not the same without the avatar. Is Travis Canadian? LOL. I swear, when we were in Jamaica last year the place was 80% Canadian and most all were ready to party. I have never tried the stuff, but may be forced to if this crap keeps up.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 21, 2012 9:26:40 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Dec 21, 2012 9:28:33 GMT -8
Here's a possible bear count that I posted in the EW thread.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 21, 2012 11:56:20 GMT -8
What a boring day. Maybe the last hour will make things exciting.
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