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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 10:55:21 GMT -8
Perhaps the reason that it hasn't gone to 1 is that the price has yet to bottom. Yes sometime the simplest answer is the answer. I would add however even on days with the lowest drop, it still basically didn't move . I've noticed that moving from $505 to $594 and back to $501 the P/C Ratio remained steady at about .67:1. This tells me that anything below $594 is considered the low for AAPL prior to earnings. I'm not going to get adversely excited about any increase in the Ratio until it reaches .80:1. Even then, in the past, AAPL has continued to go up until the Ratio exceeded .90:1.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 11:04:13 GMT -8
The Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that shows put volume relative to call volume. Put options are used to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Call options are used to hedge against market strength or bet on advance. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume exceeds call volume and below 1 when call volume exceeds put volume. Typically, this indicator is used to gauge market sentiment. Sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the Put/Call Ratio is trading at relatively high levels, and excessively bullish when at relatively low levels.Where is the quickest and simplest place to find the put/call ratio for aapl? www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/indicators/putcall_open_interest_ratio.aspx?ticker=AAPLFinviz finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=Aapl has quite a bit of other sentiment kind of data as well. I'm still sorting through it all, trying to determine which is useful, and which is not. Finviz shows institutional ownership at 66.87%. I am focusing on that number, not because it is more accurate than any other site, but to see changes in a known constant. About 3 months ago institutional ownership was 70.1%. That's a drop of about 32,000,000 shares. I'd really like to see what happens to AAPL should the institutions buy those 32 million shares back (increased demand - buyers - in the face of decreasing supply - sellers).
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Post by lobo on Dec 23, 2012 11:37:11 GMT -8
Gregg this information seems to paint a pretty decent picture for Apple in the coming months. Thanks for the analysis. Just a general question, with basically 4 1/2 trading days left in this year/quarter, where does Apple end up on 12/31? Continuing to test the bottom, sideways trading, or do we start to creep up towards earnings?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 12:00:04 GMT -8
Anyone know how a Bull Call Spread is depicted as a call transaction that is used on the call side factor of the P/C ratio? How about the same for a Bear Call Spread? It if you did either trade with say 10 contracts (open) would it show up as 20 in volume? Also when they are "Closed" is that also part of the call volume? It matters only to the extent of what the Option does in relation to the underlying equity. Calls go up when the underlying equity goes up, no matter whether you bought or sold the Call. Therefore Calls are considered Bullish. On the other hand, Puts go up when the underlying equity goes down. It matters not whether you bought or sold the Put. Therefore Puts are considered Bearish. A Spread, or any other strategy involving contracts with different Strikes or Expiries, counts as as many options as there are separate Strikes and/or Expiries, for the purpose of totaling Open Interest.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 23, 2012 12:05:42 GMT -8
If you think it's just fine that Apple has no product (Mini) in the stores at Christmas, the most important retail time of the year, then I understand. I'll put you on the side that keeps making excuses for Apple when it's fallen from $700 to $500. I don't really get your point. Yes, it would've been great if the mini had been in stock at every Apple Store every day, and every moment, but anecdotal evidence has been saying that the minis sell out very quickly upon arrival. Hence, there's amazing demand. But in-store purchase is only one approach to securing a mini. I went to Apple's online store and bought one weeks ago - not even right after it launched - and it arrived weeks ago - no big whoop! Most Apple would-be buyers ought to know about that possibility. Soooo, what's the big issue for you? Did an Apple rep not suggest going online and ordering? Or even suggest doing the overnight reservation approach? Please explain por favor . . . Thnx. (And happy holidays all around!) Actually, I went to my Apple store many, many times in search of the iPad Mini before finally ordering online. Surprisingly, not once was it suggested to me to do so by an employee. All I got was "sorry, we don't have any and we don't know when we'll get more". Now that you mention it, it seems obvious that they should suggest purchasing online but nobody did. A slight cause for concern.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 12:09:29 GMT -8
Gregg this information seems to paint a pretty decent picture for Apple in the coming months. Thanks for the analysis. Just a general question, with basically 4 1/2 trading days left in this year/quarter, where does Apple end up on 12/31? Continuing to test the bottom, sideways trading, or do we start to creep up towards earnings? Put/Call Ratio can't help with that kind of question. However, you can infer from the motives of the dominant investor (in the current case the Seller), that the motive to sell (taxes? fiscal cliff?) is going to disappear in the very near term. From there Buyers, feeding on positive fundamentals (sentiment expressed by Put/Call Ratio) will become the dominant investor. How far AAPL goes up requires a level of knowledge I'm not sure I have presently, although I do feel it will be in excess of $100 ($150?) by expiry.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 12:12:55 GMT -8
Now that you mention it, it seems obvious that they should suggest purchasing online but nobody did. A slight cause for concern. The only thing that seems obvious to me, is that you should have thought of it yourself, before someone else had to suggest it.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 23, 2012 12:13:43 GMT -8
Just a general question, with basically 4 1/2 trading days left in this year/quarter, where does Apple end up on 12/31? Continuing to test the bottom, sideways trading, or do we start to creep up towards earnings? I won't exclude the possibility of more down, but I think the buyers will start to pile on at the end of the week and do so even more next Monday.
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Post by alice on Dec 23, 2012 12:23:02 GMT -8
Just a general question, with basically 4 1/2 trading days left in this year/quarter, where does Apple end up on 12/31? Continuing to test the bottom, sideways trading, or do we start to creep up towards earnings? I won't exclude the possibility of more down, but I think the buyers will start to pile on at the end of the week and do so even more next Monday. Appledoc, why do you think "buyers will start to pile on at the end of the week and do so even more next Monday"? Thanks.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 23, 2012 12:32:00 GMT -8
How far AAPL goes up requires a level of knowledge I'm not sure I have presently, although I do feel it will be in excess of $100 ($150?) by expiry. This is based on EW, but... IF we have hit the lows, I think we could see as high as the 590s before expiry. However, I will caution that we are likely to sell off some of that gain in the days leading into expiry. I'm still holding Jan 13 550/560.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 23, 2012 12:36:27 GMT -8
I won't exclude the possibility of more down, but I think the buyers will start to pile on at the end of the week and do so even more next Monday. Appledoc, why do you think "buyers will start to pile on at the end of the week and do so even more next Monday"? Thanks. It's the end of the quarter, end of the year. Time for the hedgies to do some window dressing. I have no doubt that the professional community still believes in AAPL. On top of that, whatever tax-related selling is still going on will cease after next Monday. I think we'll see a rush of buyers try to get in before they get left behind.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 23, 2012 13:16:03 GMT -8
Does window dressing really have an effect ? It seems that iPhones, iPads, the general economy and numericals such as put/call or PE are the overwhelming aspects.
In the Frozen North, Packers win 55-7 over the Titans who had been plagued by injuries. Surprisingly, not a lot of turnovers.
In reviewing EPS estimates around the map, we have the wide range. Wall Street is down at 13.30. Independents from 14.00 to 16.80.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 23, 2012 14:24:19 GMT -8
Does window dressing really have an effect ? It seems that iPhones, iPads, the general economy and numericals such as put/call or PE are the overwhelming aspects. In the Frozen North, Packers win 55-7 over the Titans who had been plagued by injuries. Surprisingly, not a lot of turnovers. In reviewing EPS estimates around the map, we have the wide range. Wall Street is down at 13.30. Independents from 14.00 to 16.80. Where you at Tetra? Just curious. I'm just starting to cobble things together. (GregT is way high IMO). BTW, anyone have a guess on iPad Mini production these days? I heard number somewhere but can't seem to find it.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 23, 2012 14:27:15 GMT -8
This tells me that anything below $594 is considered the low for AAPL prior to earnings. Well that's reassuring. I guess someone didn't get the memo.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 23, 2012 14:33:26 GMT -8
I'm in the $ 14.00 to 14.60 EPS range. This quarter will set a new record in percentages of revenue that are from the iPhone.
iPad mini rumors says 8 to 12 M. I'm between 7.5 to 10 on actual sales.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2012 14:49:24 GMT -8
I'm in the $ 14.00 to 14.60 EPS range. This quarter will set a new record in percentages of revenue that are from the iPhone. iPad mini rumors says 8 to 12 M. I'm between 7.5 to 10 on actual sales. I'm at $14.35 right now. I'm up .10 from earlier due to improved iPhone 5 availability worldwide..... An interesting observation at the AT&T store today. I saw seven iPhones sold in less than five minutes. As I was buying a case for my wife's 4s, two other salespeople wrapped up two family plans, one with four phones involved, one with three. I asked the manager if the family plan multi-sales was still so common and he said yes, that Christmas and aggressive pushing of shared data plans has caused parents to "stretch" on the multi- sales. The .99 iPhone 4 is an easy decision for teens and even pre-teens. He sai his largest family plan sold this season was six...mom and dad got iPhone 5, four kids got 4's
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 16:14:08 GMT -8
I'm in the $ 14.00 to 14.60 EPS range. This quarter will set a new record in percentages of revenue that are from the iPhone. iPad mini rumors says 8 to 12 M. I'm between 7.5 to 10 on actual sales. I'm at $14.35 right now. I'm up .10 from earlier due to improved iPhone 5 availability worldwide..... An interesting observation at the AT&T store today. I saw seven iPhones sold in less than five minutes. As I was buying a case for my wife's 4s, two other salespeople wrapped up two family plans, one with four phones involved, one with three. I asked the manager if the family plan multi-sales was still so common and he said yes, that Christmas and aggressive pushing of shared data plans has caused parents to "stretch" on the multi- sales. The .99 iPhone 4 is an easy decision for teens and even pre-teens. He sai his largest family plan sold this season was six...mom and dad got iPhone 5, four kids got 4's That's a great thing to hear. Out of interest, how much would a family plan like that cost in the US? It can't be cheap, seeing as the carrier is subsidising about $2700 in phones by my estimate???
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Post by chasmac on Dec 23, 2012 16:53:22 GMT -8
I'm at $14.35 right now. I'm up .10 from earlier due to improved iPhone 5 availability worldwide..... An interesting observation at the AT&T store today. I saw seven iPhones sold in less than five minutes. As I was buying a case for my wife's 4s, two other salespeople wrapped up two family plans, one with four phones involved, one with three. I asked the manager if the family plan multi-sales was still so common and he said yes, that Christmas and aggressive pushing of shared data plans has caused parents to "stretch" on the multi- sales. The .99 iPhone 4 is an easy decision for teens and even pre-teens. He sai his largest family plan sold this season was six...mom and dad got iPhone 5, four kids got 4's That's a great thing to hear. Out of interest, how much would a family plan like that cost in the US? It can't be cheap, seeing as the carrier is subsidising about $2700 in phones by my estimate??? $300ish? We pay $220 /4
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 16:55:18 GMT -8
I'm at $14.35 right now. I'm up .10 from earlier due to improved iPhone 5 availability worldwide..... An interesting observation at the AT&T store today. I saw seven iPhones sold in less than five minutes. As I was buying a case for my wife's 4s, two other salespeople wrapped up two family plans, one with four phones involved, one with three. I asked the manager if the family plan multi-sales was still so common and he said yes, that Christmas and aggressive pushing of shared data plans has caused parents to "stretch" on the multi- sales. The .99 iPhone 4 is an easy decision for teens and even pre-teens. He sai his largest family plan sold this season was six...mom and dad got iPhone 5, four kids got 4's That's a great thing to hear. Out of interest, how much would a family plan like that cost in the US? It can't be cheap, seeing as the carrier is subsidising about $2700 in phones by my estimate??? Whatever it is, its less expensive than a one up contract.
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Post by rosie on Dec 23, 2012 17:16:24 GMT -8
That's a great thing to hear. Out of interest, how much would a family plan like that cost in the US? It can't be cheap, seeing as the carrier is subsidising about $2700 in phones by my estimate??? hey Burgess, here's an ATT link. www.att.com/shop/wireless/plans-new.html#fbid=qec-80HVTxv
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 23, 2012 19:08:29 GMT -8
I just looked at the net money flow in AAPL for Friday and I have to say, I was stunned. A negative 2 billion. It is the highest I have ever seen. Not that it is an indicator of direction, but it can't be discarded either.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 19:46:17 GMT -8
New rumour:
Thinner, Lighter 5th Generation iPad to Arrive in March 2013?2
Dec 23, 2012 5:22 pm PST by Husain Sumra
Japanese blog Macotakara is reporting that a redesigned fifth-generation iPad could arrive in March 2013. However Chinese news ZOL (CBS Interactive) reported next iPad mini in AppleInsider's article, according to my inside source, iPad(5th) may be released in March, 2013.
Source told that, design of this new iPad will be like iPad mini in detail, and be thinner and lightweight. Apple just released the fourth-generation iPad about two months ago, which could make this fifth-generation iPad, if the report is true, the second in five months. The design is said to have taken inspiration from the iPad mini and will be thinner and more lightweight. According to the site, the new iPad will 4mm, 17mm and 2mm smaller in height, width, and depth than the current models.
Previously, DigiTimes also reported that a new iPad could appear in the "Middle of 2013". Except for the fourth-generation iPad and iPad mini, new iPads are have traditionally released in the first couple months of the year.
Macotakara has been a source of accurate information in the past, predicting the design of this year's iPod Nano and iPod Touch.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 19:48:41 GMT -8
That's a great thing to hear. Out of interest, how much would a family plan like that cost in the US? It can't be cheap, seeing as the carrier is subsidising about $2700 in phones by my estimate??? hey Burgess, here's an ATT link. www.att.com/shop/wireless/plans-new.html#fbid=qec-80HVTxvWow. Those monthly fees can sure add up!
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Post by appledoc on Dec 23, 2012 20:02:02 GMT -8
Completely off topic, but I just booked my trip to the most epic BCS title game my generation will ever see. I have one amazing friend (a ND alumnus) who had an extra ticket that she offered me plus staying in Miami for three nights for free. I'm psyched.
Now just need to continue my good luck streak when the market opens tomorrow.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2012 20:10:18 GMT -8
You should all be watching my Seahawks right now.....awesome
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 23, 2012 20:37:54 GMT -8
Completely off topic, but I just booked my trip to the most epic BCS title game my generation will ever see. I have one amazing friend (a ND alumnus) who had an extra ticket that she offered me plus staying in Miami for three nights for free. I'm psyched. Now just need to continue my good luck streak when the market opens tomorrow. Needless to say, I am envious. The game has the potential to be epic, we won't know until after the game to declare it epic. Three nights in Miami with all the excitement in the air, should be awesome.
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Post by playultimate on Dec 23, 2012 20:55:27 GMT -8
You should all be watching my Seahawks right now.....awesome My daughter came up to me a few weeks ago and predicted a Bronco-Seahawk Super Bowl. Based on what I saw today, that is a real possibility.
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Post by prazan on Dec 23, 2012 21:00:16 GMT -8
I'm at $14.50 with a 14/12 iPad to iPad Mini split.
I suspect 4 and 4s sales are strong (based partly on anecdotal evidence, partly on family plan pricing) which might lead to an upside surprise on units and temper the impact of the 5 on GM. I usually revise down as the quarter ends but I'm leaning toward revising upward.
Appledoc posted a product release guideline earlier in the thread. I've been listening to The Critical Path podcast series from Horace D while I stroll the baby pram. In #66 he posits that Apple's increase in Capex might be due to major product updates every 6 months, particularly in the iPhone line, something that John Sculley spoke about last week. We'll have to see how this plays out but don't discount a 5s by spring.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 23, 2012 21:09:44 GMT -8
I think a 5s by Spring is quite likely, along with a retina ipad mini.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 23, 2012 21:11:01 GMT -8
Now that you mention it, it seems obvious that they should suggest purchasing online but nobody did. A slight cause for concern. The only thing that seems obvious to me, is that you should have thought of it yourself, before someone else had to suggest it. Thanks Gregg - I appreciate the snarkiness. Well done. I in fact did think of it but I wanted to have the iPad Mini in hand before I left on a trip in a few days time. Once the date passed, I then gave up and ordered online, and made do with my laptop on the trip. Do you not think retail employees should suggest to people that they order online instead of simply saying "sorry, none in stock, don't know when the next batch will come in"?
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