Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 29, 2019 2:03:35 GMT -8
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Apr 29, 2019 2:45:23 GMT -8
I'm not feeling good about the earnings tomorrow. For the first time am considering getting out into cash before the results are announced.
I'm unconvinced they will raise dividend enough to pacify. If buybacks are smaller that might create some FUD. I don't feel (anecdotally) that the iphones are selling like they used to. The services aren't really 'live' yet. I was hoping they would migrate to ARM chips in laptops/desktops faster. And guidance will probably be muted.
I guess i feel the rise is potentially manipulation, and we could be setting up for a biggish fall. The future still looks strong to me - but this current period feels like a lull.
Do AAPL finance board members feel like the downsides are baked into the price already?
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Post by macster on Apr 29, 2019 5:55:42 GMT -8
How bout a 3 for 1 split on top of a 16% dividend hike.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 29, 2019 5:56:03 GMT -8
When people ask about earnings, I tell them to expect the worst. Even when good, Wall Street thrives by finding something to spin as a negative. If it doesn't happen we'll all be pleasantly surprised. 😉
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 29, 2019 5:56:55 GMT -8
I like how you think macster.
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 29, 2019 6:01:54 GMT -8
Hi Since84 - I see the date in your header and then look at your avatar and realize that you're getting 'into' the role of your avatar. Flying if not all the way to 'infinity and beyond' but at least to four months in the future
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Apr 29, 2019 6:06:55 GMT -8
Macster re:split and dividend - if only!
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 29, 2019 6:08:00 GMT -8
Speaking of dividend, I wish Apple does something that's unexpectedly amazing for once... like hiking the dividend this time to $1.
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Post by macster on Apr 29, 2019 6:15:04 GMT -8
Well when I thought about it I figured at around $70 psychology-wise it will be a faster rise to 300 from $205 shr. Just fantasizing.
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 29, 2019 6:17:55 GMT -8
I'm not feeling good about the earnings tomorrow. For the first time am considering getting out into cash before the results are announced. I'm unconvinced they will raise dividend enough to pacify. If buybacks are smaller that might create some FUD. I don't feel (anecdotally) that the iphones are selling like they used to. The services aren't really 'live' yet. I was hoping they would migrate to ARM chips in laptops/desktops faster. And guidance will probably be muted. I guess i feel the rise is potentially manipulation, and we could be setting up for a biggish fall. The future still looks strong to me - but this current period feels like a lull. Do AAPL finance board members feel like the downsides are baked into the price already? Even if the numbers are bad, I don't think they'll be that bad. The fact that Apple hasn't revised the numbers lower again means that they're sure to hit 55-56 bln at least. With the consensus being 57.5ish the max we'll drop is to 195-190 and rebound from there. That's considering the guidance is decent and not dismal.
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Post by sponge on Apr 29, 2019 6:19:50 GMT -8
I don’t think we will move much after earnings in either direction. The major correction I anticipated back in Jan for June was moved 6 months down the road. I still think we will see a sell off in June, but it will be much smaller. The market in anticipation of China deal has taken aapl with it and once the deal is reached we should have some profit taking. GDP growth will slow down in the fall with a recession by Q1 2020. A move of 42% in 4 months will be followed by a similar move in the opposite direction. It will become more clear in Oct that iPhone sales are slowing down significantly.
Observations from Shanghai is that most Didi drivers and taxi drivers had Androids. In talking to folks on the ground, the Chinese brands were catching up with Apple quickly. Overall the economy is growing but Corporate Jet sales are flat. Several large aviation companies are struggling financially. The Apple store had light traffic on the sales floor but was packed on the second floor with classes. I think the Chinese gov gave the green light for renewed iPhone sales, so sales rebounded a bit from Dec. Local Chinese officials here in LA are eager to work with US on trade and that message was even stronger in Shanghai. We have $600 billion in trade with China and don’t see a big change anytime soon. Trump talks tough but needs the market up, so he will give in.
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Post by macster on Apr 29, 2019 6:41:05 GMT -8
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Post by laf on Apr 29, 2019 6:48:33 GMT -8
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Post by laf on Apr 29, 2019 6:50:42 GMT -8
Sponge, Thanks for your observations. Was this from a recent trip and was your observation about taxi drivers using Android a comparative statement from prior trips where you saw more iphone use among that group?
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Post by sponge on Apr 29, 2019 7:06:03 GMT -8
I was in Shanghai two weeks ago. Was invited back for a small trade mission by their gov. next month but don’t have time to since I have prior commitments. Should return in 12 months, and hope to make it up to Beijing at that time as well. May make it to Hong Kong and Taipei in the fall however.
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Post by sponge on Apr 29, 2019 7:12:51 GMT -8
By the way Didi is great since you don’t have to speak the language but has lots of bugs and does not work with my CC. So I had to use cash. It is much cheaper then taxi, but quality of cars can very greatly.
It takes a while for the app find a car and the estimates on arrival are off. Apple maps was a lifesaver there since google does not work. Traffic there is crazy. With population of 32 million and only one main 4 lane highway, it can take 45 min to travel 9 miles. Only saw two accidents and most drivers follow traffic laws. The motorcycles and bicycles are the ones that don’t follow any laws. They drive in opposite direction, on the sidewalks, but are quiet.
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Post by laf on Apr 29, 2019 7:50:34 GMT -8
Sponge, thanks for the followup....was in shanghai 6 or 7 years ago and you could not pay me enough to drive. The scooters were everywhere darting in and out of traffic.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Apr 29, 2019 10:30:01 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Apr 29, 2019 11:43:35 GMT -8
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