Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 30, 2019 12:46:55 GMT -8
What scares me is the thought that they are conserving cash for something.
As a rule, I'm not thrilled with large acquisitions.
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 30, 2019 12:47:38 GMT -8
Watching the "analysts" on CNBC is like eating shards of glass.
Ross Gerber just called the "services" business a TAX ...... and he's spent the last 5 minutes screaming about Tim Cook's performance. SHEESH.
Apple's services is growing very nicely ... gotta check the exact numbers but I heard 11% YOY. When the 5G upgrade starts AAPL will be putting up revenue numbers that the street has NEVER seen ....
Yes I would have liked to have seen a better dividend raise but on the whole .... I'm pretty happy.
Cheers to the longs ...
Very happy the shorts are getting burned .....
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 30, 2019 12:50:32 GMT -8
Soon Services might become bigger than Mac+iPad+Other combined!
iPhone: $31.05B Mac: $5.5B iPad: $4.8B Other: $5.1B Services: $11.45B
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 30, 2019 12:51:42 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 30, 2019 12:58:28 GMT -8
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Post by nwjade on Apr 30, 2019 13:00:32 GMT -8
What scares me is the thought that they are conserving cash for something. That thought definitely crossed my mind... If it's accretive to earnings I'm all for it.
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Post by incorrigible on Apr 30, 2019 13:04:30 GMT -8
Maybe they will offer an explanation for the low divi increase on the call. I'll wait and see.
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Post by aapltini on Apr 30, 2019 13:06:51 GMT -8
Of course, they could have diverted some of the unproven buybacks to dividend increases and still acquired just about anything they want. However, buybacks benefits the board more with inflated results so, that’s what we get. “Returning money to shareholders”? Not so sure.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 30, 2019 13:09:29 GMT -8
Is this conference call prerecorded?
I thought I just heard Tim jump to another sentence..............
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 30, 2019 13:12:23 GMT -8
Is this conference call prerecorded? I thought I just heard Tim jump to another sentence.............. This has crossed my mind earlier. Maybe Tim's intro is.
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Post by mrentropy on Apr 30, 2019 13:14:39 GMT -8
Woot.
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 30, 2019 13:15:27 GMT -8
~212 Back to being a TRILLION DOLLAR company
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Post by mrentropy on Apr 30, 2019 13:17:34 GMT -8
Watching the "analysts" on CNBC is like eating shards of glass. Ross Gerber just called the "services" business a TAX ...... and he's spent the last 5 minutes screaming about Tim Cook's performance. SHEESH. Apple's services is growing very nicely ... gotta check the exact numbers but I heard 11% YOY. When the 5G upgrade starts AAPL will be putting up revenue numbers that the street has NEVER seen .... Yes I would have liked to have seen a better dividend raise but on the whole .... I'm pretty happy. Cheers to the longs ... Very happy the shorts are getting burned ..... Ross Gerber is a moron that I wouldn’t trust manage a little league t-ball team, let alone real money.
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Post by aapltini on Apr 30, 2019 13:27:44 GMT -8
Not sure they should be bragging about their inability to keep up with airpod demand at this point.
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Post by dreamRaj on Apr 30, 2019 13:51:16 GMT -8
Is it just me or all the answers TC is giving seem like non-answers? No color whatsoever.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Apr 30, 2019 13:55:19 GMT -8
It's not you...
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Post by aapltini on Apr 30, 2019 13:58:46 GMT -8
Bo-ring!
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Post by BillH on Apr 30, 2019 14:03:55 GMT -8
Is it just me or all the answers TC is giving seem like non-answers? No color whatsoever. And he's really GOOD at it. When you're leading an industry, (and I believe they are), I don't see how telling others what you're doing and why you're doing it is anything but beneficial to the competition. He did make it clear that none of the new services are "hobbies" which sends an entirely different kind of warning to the competition.
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Post by rezonate on Apr 30, 2019 17:53:45 GMT -8
Maybe they're keeping more cash on hand for the move into finance with Apple Card?
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Post by hledgard on Apr 30, 2019 18:24:45 GMT -8
Maybe they're keeping more cash on hand for the move into finance with Apple Card? Hmm. Interesting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2019 18:45:51 GMT -8
Not raising the dividend more can't be to save money. They're authorizing 75B in buybacks. Each 5 cents of dividend is what, about 1B per year to payout? Nah, they're not saving a thing by limiting dividend.
BTW, Neil Cybart says they bought 24B of shares in 2Q from their previous authorized buyback. That's huge.
Did no one ask during the conference call why div was low? My wild guess is that they're showing:
1) Their simple preference for buybacks because of tax efficiency. 2) They are highly confident of the companies future prospects 3a) They don't belief and would like to pour some cold water on the idea they're an aging stock that the chief reason to own is the dividend. 3b) They're showing they don't want to be held to the dividend growth model method of estimating the fair value.
They're thumbing their noses at Wall Street. Good for them. It would make Steve Jobs smile.
Personally I was pleased with it. Reasons are 1) I live in a high tax state and I like the tax efficiency of buybacks; I'm in no way skeptical about it returning money to me as surely as dividends; 3) I'm not retired and am not depending on dividend income ramping quickly; 4) I'm not concerned about the DGM of estimating the fair value of AAPL, and I agree with management (if that's their logic) that it's a poor way to value of Apple.
But I understand that some who are retired might have been counting on a larger dividend for a larger increase in income. I understand they'd feel very differently. But other than that, I think it isn't a bad thing that Apple doesn't feel bound to conform to expectations that don't necessarily make sense for them.
Question: Are people who are disappointed in the small dividend increase because:
1) They wanted increased dividend income? 2) They don't like what the DGM may say about the div increase? 3) Other?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 30, 2019 19:09:43 GMT -8
Question: Are people who are disappointed in the small dividend increase because: While I'm not disappointed that the dividend didn't increase more than it did, I am surprised. Given all of the rhetoric over the past 2 years about moving to being net cash neutral, I expected Apple to continue increasing the dividend in the 10-12% range, with possible larger ones. While I understand the concept that buybacks should give to shareholder's, there are times that things don't always work out exactly. If AAPL shareholders think it's P/E isn't fair, then why would tweaking that number (and other numbers like EPS) a little matter? There are times where I wish Apple was buying back stock but not retiring it, so that it was slowly owning more and more of it and could in fact one day own the whole company if it wanted to. Instead, while the money does benefit shareholders, it doesn't really benefit Apple itself. But given the strange valuation comparisons that AAPL gets, often I am not so sure that retiring ~6% per year of the outstanding shares really matters much, for the company or for the share price. Similar to how splitting a stock shouldn't matter, but in the last couple days a bunch of people here called for a 3 for 1 split. It was one thing when AAPL was $600+ and one of the highest price per share stocks out there, which could have psychological and real limitations to some. But now there are many higher cost per share stocks out there. But with the lower dividend increase, I would have liked to hear if this is around where they are targeting increases in the future. Going from .73/quarter to .75 is only a 2.7% increase, roughly inflation. That's hugely different than last year's 16% increase. (EDIT: Dividend actually went from .73 to .77 per Q, a ~5.5% increase. AAPL is never going to get to a ~4% dividend with these small increases, which is fine. But increasing it 10% a year for a while would be nice, even if the real appreciation is in the share price)
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Post by sponge on Apr 30, 2019 19:12:47 GMT -8
Small dividend increase when they have less shares outstanding while buying back only $24 billion tells me they are conserving cash.
In my view they know they can buy cheaper in the next 12 months.
Only impressive number is guidance. Guidance in Oct and April next year will be the two factors driving the stock to a p/e of 9.
Will start buying puts next week and maybe even by Friday. May and June OI is growing in the 185 area.
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 30, 2019 19:41:22 GMT -8
Small dividend increase when they have less shares outstanding while buying back only $24 billion tells me they are conserving cash. In my view they know they can buy cheaper in the next 12 months. Only impressive number is guidance. Guidance in Oct and April next year will be the two factors driving the stock to a p/e of 9. Will start buying puts next week and maybe even by Friday. May and June OI is growing in the 185 area. You’ve been dead wrong for a while. You got lucky a few months ago so you’ve been given a free pass to spread your gloom and doom around here but I’m revoking it. If you really believe that we see a PE of 9 ... please short away. Plenty of things to like in that report as far as I’m concerned not to mention all of the great things coming soon ....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2019 19:54:42 GMT -8
Small dividend increase when they have less shares outstanding while buying back only $24 billion tells me they are conserving cash. In my view they know they can buy cheaper in the next 12 months. Only $24 billion? That's a world record. An extra 5 cents a share is a couple hundred million. And you suspect the buybacks are about market timing? It sounds to me like someone projecting their own beliefs onto the Apple board.
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Post by sponge on Apr 30, 2019 20:00:21 GMT -8
Let’s see. Apple increased iPhone prices 40% in three years and now their sales are down 30% despite 10% drop in prices.
They are making it up with services and wearables. But it won’t last unless they grow their base. Q2 2018 services grew 31% and wearables grew 38%. Today that was 16% and 30%. You see a pattern?. They are not going to go far while market share is dropping. I don’t judge company based on stock price but overall direction of company. The correction in Dec. was a shot across the bow of long term investors.
We went up 45% because Trump gave into the Chinese. That won’t change the economy of the average consumer. If things were as great as the 3.3 GDP number then Apple should be doing better. Yes record sales in US, but when 61% of your sales are overseas, you will pay a price.
I am a bear because I see that there are serious issues with how the company is being run.
Don’t need permission from the bull board to express how I see things.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2019 20:11:21 GMT -8
Given all of the rhetoric over the past 2 years about moving to being net cash neutral, I expected Apple to continue increasing the dividend in the 10-12% range, with possible larger ones. While I understand the concept that buybacks should give to shareholder's, there are times that things don't always work out exactly. If AAPL shareholders think it's P/E isn't fair, then why would tweaking that number (and other numbers like EPS) a little matter? There are times where I wish Apple was buying back stock but not retiring it, so that it was slowly owning more and more of it and could in fact one day own the whole company if it wanted to. Instead, while the money does benefit shareholders, it doesn't really benefit Apple itself. But given the strange valuation comparisons that AAPL gets, often I am not so sure that retiring ~6% per year of the outstanding shares really matters much, for the company or for the share price. But without a special one-time large dividend, which is a terrible idea, dividends aren't very helpful getting Apple to cash neutral since they're throwing off so much cash. Without buybacks Apple wouldn't have a prayer of getting to cash neutrality without having the government get a ton of it. Nothing in the market always works out exactly. I also don't see buybacks as helping P/E in any direct way. It's better Apple buy shares back than that their investors take the dividends, pay taxes on them, and then buy more AAPL. Not all of them do that, but nothing will please all investors. I don't think anything will fix an unfair P/E other than a narrative change about the stock, which buybacks don't directly affect. I think buybacks do benefit Apple. That benefit is cash neutrality. If they keep too much cash Congress will come sniffing around, or someone will be tempted to do a large acquisition for the sake of it, or financial services starts to dominate the company instead of product design, or at least it will have corrupting effects. Avoiding any or all of those is how I see the benefit to Apple.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2019 20:19:18 GMT -8
Let’s see. Apple increased iPhone prices 40% in three years ... Don’t need permission from the bull board to express how I see things. No, Apple didn't increase iPhone prices. Did Toyota increase car prices when it introduced Lexus for Camry buyers? Nope. I just bought an iPad to replace a 5 year old iPad. Would you believe it was the same price? Yep. I could have paid much less, but I wanted an equivalent model. I could have paid much more, but I didn't need a pro. Same tier, same price. Whatdya know. iPhone is the same thing. People that claim Apple is raising their prices always assume everyone needs the higher tiered ones. They don't. It'd be better if while you were expressing yourself you made attempts at accuracy.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 30, 2019 20:43:57 GMT -8
I, for one, am disappointed in the divy. Some of us actually like to spend real money instead of counting unrealized gains all our lives. It's our fucking money, and Tim spends it like a drunken sailor on shore leave, until it's time to return it to the people who own the company. I'm really starting to hate the guy.
I also find it scary from a health of the company perspective that they've cut the rate of divy increase. I don't know how that can be considered good news for their views of long term revenue growth.
Cheers to the longs.
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Post by sponge on Apr 30, 2019 20:47:43 GMT -8
Let’s see. Apple increased iPhone prices 40% in three years ... Don’t need permission from the bull board to express how I see things. No, Apple didn't increase iPhone prices. Did Toyota increase car prices when it introduced Lexus for Camry buyers? Nope. I just bought an iPad to replace a 5 year old iPad. Would you believe it was the same price? Yep. I could have paid much less, but I wanted an equivalent model. I could have paid much more, but I didn't need a pro. Same tier, same price. Whatdya know. iPhone is the same thing. People that claim Apple is raising their prices always assume everyone needs the higher tiered ones. They don't. It'd be better if while you were expressing yourself you made attempts at accuracy. Everyone has different needs. The average price still went up 40%. Apple wants high margins and has pushed the envelope in how much people will pay. They pushed too far. They want to be considered luxury but yet I see minimum wage teenagers with the X+. Those people will not be upgrading for years. TC no longer brags about switchers and the smartphone adoption is over. Market share is dropping because Android has caught up. They still make the best phones. My dad still has his 5C and loves it. They brag about trade in program, but that has not stopped the bleeding of sales. They will need to sell a whole lot of AirPods and Apple TV and Apple News subscriptions to make up for average of $800 iPhone. My first iPad was $600 now it is $900 if I want what was the best in 2012.
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