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Post by sponge on May 14, 2019 8:05:58 GMT -8
The 170 puts make sense. That is within the realm of possibility. As for you're 158 target, I see where you're coming from. Yes there is a gap. Boy do I hope you're wrong... I saw similar pattern last Oct and did not believe it. Lots of puts at 150 when we were around 200. Just follow the smart money. In the interest of fairness there are just as many 220 calls. But volume is very low today. There would have to be major positive resolution to trade war and some big announcement at wwdc for us to hit 220.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,628
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Post by 4aapl on May 14, 2019 8:08:13 GMT -8
The 170 puts make sense. That is within the realm of possibility. As for you're 158 target, I see where you're coming from. Yes there is a gap. Boy do I hope you're wrong... Or take the contrary approach. With the strong likelihood that a drop to that level wouldn't really be justified, that would be a huge buying opportunity. I didn't pick up shares this morning, but could at an even lower price (not really looking to add, but sometimes it's opportunistically tempting).
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on May 14, 2019 8:13:33 GMT -8
side note... small error in thread title (May 14th vs 4th)... thanks
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Post by Luckychoices on May 14, 2019 8:58:48 GMT -8
The 170 puts make sense. That is within the realm of possibility. As for you're 158 target, I see where you're coming from. Yes there is a gap. Boy do I hope you're wrong... I saw similar pattern last Oct and did not believe it. Lots of puts at 150 when we were around 200. Just follow the smart money.So stay long AAPL? Got it! Glad to see we agree.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 14, 2019 9:02:04 GMT -8
side note... small error in thread title (May 14th vs 4th)... thanks Fixed. Thanks.
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ems
Member
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Post by ems on May 14, 2019 9:10:05 GMT -8
it's almost guaranteed no one was buying just $5.6M of raw puts with nothing else in the transaction. It's nearly certainly bought as part of a hedge on a multi-leg options play of some type. So, don't read much into that.
re: tariffs - by 2020 or sooner (hopefully) the nonsense should be over and markets can go back to somewhat normal. The chinese and others know this, so the volatility until then is unfortunately to be expected. Hopefully in the aftermath, congress takes back some of the powers it should never have given up, and we don't see this tariff nonsense threat arising again anytime soon.
And AAPL hasn't traded on pure fundamentals in a long time - it's much more affected by market sentiment and psychology/FUD.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on May 14, 2019 9:32:05 GMT -8
it's almost guaranteed no one was buying just $5.6M of raw puts with nothing else in the transaction. It's nearly certainly bought as part of a hedge on a multi-leg options play of some type. So, don't read much into that. This is the first thing I thought, but I couldn't find the other leg of the trade. So, either it's a one off "bet", or the other leg is in the form of the stock itself. However, even if it's a one off bet, there's a seller and there's a buyer here, so it's really two bets. Remember that unlike stock shares, options truly are a zero-sum game.
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Post by gtrplyr on May 14, 2019 9:58:10 GMT -8
And one more thing. Trump and China is absolutely relevant to the discussion here. We are at severe risk of a direct hit to Apple, both by China, and the economic impact of tarrifs and whatever else is coming. EXCELLENT post. KEEP THE NAME CALLING FOR THE DUNGEON. RESPECT THE INTRADAY THREAD. Any chance you could stop posting in all caps?
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Post by BillH on May 14, 2019 10:59:25 GMT -8
I saw similar pattern last Oct and did not believe it. Lots of puts at 150 when we were around 200. Just follow the smart money.So stay long AAPL? Got it! Glad to see we agree. A great number of buy and holders here which is why I'm here. This has been the "smart money". Tim Cook said it was going to be Christmas Eve for awhile and I took him at his word. I continue to think that he is as brilliant as Steve Jobs even if it's manifested in a different way. Their areas of focus including chips, health, guidance systems etc. are what I would be looking to invest in. Given that they seem to probe deeper into problem solving ( with more detail manifested in the resulting products) does indeed make me a long term bull.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 14, 2019 11:04:13 GMT -8
Guidance Systems?!?!?
Sorry, but I immediately thought of missiles. 🤪
Probably showing my age.
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Post by Lstream on May 14, 2019 11:24:16 GMT -8
So stay long AAPL? Got it! Glad to see we agree. A great number of buy and holders here which is why I'm here. This has been the "smart money". Tim Cook said it was going to be Christmas Eve for awhile and I took him at his word. I continue to think that he is as brilliant as Steve Jobs even if it's manifested in a different way. Their areas of focus including chips, health, guidance systems etc. are what I would be looking to invest in. Given that they seem to probe deeper into problem solving ( with more detail manifested in the resulting products) does indeed make me a long term bull. Agree on the smart money comment. There are several people on this board that Apple has turned into multimillionaires following the real smart money strategy. Not some weather vane approach that has caused certain proponents to lose their entire AAPL investment more than once. BTW, I think wearables and health are going to be huge. And we have only begun to scratch the surface of what is possible. Not too long from now, the idea that people cannot monitor their health simply and as part of everyday living is going to be seen as positively primitive.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2019 11:34:34 GMT -8
I have called no one here names. Name calling is name calling. It makes little difference to reasonable people who is present and who is not. Certainly that holds for name calling of politicians that participants voted for or against. If you can't communicate what you want to without name calling, it only proves you don't grasp the issue very well. Not for nothing did John Stuart Mill say: “He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." Anyway, I thought that was what the political category was for. Most forums have a section where it is essentially unmoderated thread that, no matter what the stated or ostensible reason, is really for people who can't argue very well or persuasively. Because if you can abstract the direct personal opinion aspects from what you want to say you can perfectly well say anything. I'm used to dealing with college kids who aren't that mature. I'm a new member, and I didn't know this was self-moderated until now. But it explains the last few days of nonsense posts since self-moderation, in James Comey's terms, serves some higher call. A higher call I care about not at all. I've moderated rancorous forums of college kids, and participated in those and others, and believe me self-moderated will never work if you have any standard you're trying to meet, whether it's based on decorum, efficiency, or merely sticking to the subject. However, it does explains the sudden change in tone of this message board. I find it useless now. If this continues the board's content is highly diluted. But then I was also surprised by the focus on the short term as well, so I probably should have seen this coming.
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Post by eastbaybob on May 14, 2019 11:53:36 GMT -8
So stay long AAPL? Got it! Glad to see we agree. A great number of buy and holders here which is why I'm here. This has been the "smart money". Tim Cook said it was going to be Christmas Eve for awhile and I took him at his word. I continue to think that he is as brilliant as Steve Jobs even if it's manifested in a different way. Their areas of focus including chips, health, guidance systems etc. are what I would be looking to invest in. Given that they seem to probe deeper into problem solving ( with more detail manifested in the resulting products) does indeed make me a long term bull. Another buy and hold here. I made a large purchase in 2000 after Apple crashed and then smaller purchases when Steve Jobs was under SEC investigation and then another purchase when Apple announced SDK for App Store. That was it except for adding shares with my dividends for 401k. Have never sold a share
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on May 14, 2019 12:08:19 GMT -8
A great number of buy and holders here which is why I'm here. This has been the "smart money". Tim Cook said it was going to be Christmas Eve for awhile and I took him at his word. I continue to think that he is as brilliant as Steve Jobs even if it's manifested in a different way. Their areas of focus including chips, health, guidance systems etc. are what I would be looking to invest in. Given that they seem to probe deeper into problem solving ( with more detail manifested in the resulting products) does indeed make me a long term bull. Another buy and hold here. I made a large purchase in 2000 after Apple crashed and then smaller purchases when Steve Jobs was under SEC investigation and then another purchase when Apple announced SDK for App Store. That was it except for adding shares with my dividends for 401k. Have never sold a share Wow we’ve got almost the same AAPL story. I’ll never forget my first purchase after the big 2000 crash. I’d just opened a Datek account and put all my earnings from a month of film work into Apple, more or less on a gut feeling. Buy and hold has been the smart money way for me ever since.
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Post by BillH on May 14, 2019 12:17:10 GMT -8
I have called no one here names. Name calling is name calling. It makes little difference to reasonable people who is present and who is not. Certainly that holds for name calling of politicians that participants voted for or against. If you can't communicate what you want to without name calling, it only proves you don't grasp the issue very well. Not for nothing did John Stuart Mill say: “He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." Anyway, I thought that was what the political category was for. Most forums have a section where it is essentially unmoderated thread that, no matter what the stated or ostensible reason, is really for people who can't argue very well or persuasively. Because if you can abstract the direct personal opinion aspects from what you want to say you can perfectly well say anything. I'm used to dealing with college kids who aren't that mature. I'm a new member, and I didn't know this was self-moderated until now. But it explains the last few days of nonsense posts since self-moderation, in James Comey's terms, serves some higher call. A higher call I care about not at all. I've moderated rancorous forums of college kids, and participated in those and others, and believe me self-moderated will never work if you have any standard you're trying to meet, whether it's based on decorum, efficiency, or merely sticking to the subject. However, it does explains the sudden change in tone of this message board. I find it useless now. If this continues the board's content is highly diluted. But then I was also surprised by the focus on the short term as well, so I probably should have seen this coming. We're going to have to disagree on this, prudent though it may be. I'd rather have the unvarnished (how many even know what varnish is these days? ) than a cleaned up pc version of what they're thinking. I'm more than capable of sorting it out on my own.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 14, 2019 12:23:48 GMT -8
EXCELLENT post. KEEP THE NAME CALLING FOR THE DUNGEON. RESPECT THE INTRADAY THREAD. I have called no one here names. I just want to clarify for Artman's sake that oxymoron is not an insult and I mean that in the nicest way possible.
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Post by hledgard on May 14, 2019 13:05:24 GMT -8
I am with Nuclearboots. Tariffs are certainly fair game for discussion. Trump bashing should not be a part of this board. I have been a board member for many years, when Robert Leitao was the moderator. This is the worst day I have seen. The board may no longer be impartial.
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Post by Lstream on May 14, 2019 13:18:32 GMT -8
I will try to tone it down by refraining from calling him names like fat ass. But when his incompetence and ignorance of how the tech business works, starts hurting AAPL, then he needs to be called out as far as I am concerned. That part of him is doing real damage.
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benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on May 14, 2019 13:48:01 GMT -8
Another buy and hold here. I made a large purchase in 2000 after Apple crashed and then smaller purchases when Steve Jobs was under SEC investigation and then another purchase when Apple announced SDK for App Store. That was it except for adding shares with my dividends for 401k. Have never sold a share Wow we’ve got almost the same AAPL story. I’ll never forget my first purchase after the big 2000 crash. I’d just opened a Datek account and put all my earnings from a month of film work into Apple, more or less on a gut feeling. Buy and hold has been the smart money way for me ever since. I entered at the same time. October 11 I think. It’s like we have the same birthday! It was a long wait to see a gain though.
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Post by mercel on May 14, 2019 16:15:11 GMT -8
Someone just bought $5.6 million worth of 170 June 21 PUTS. My target is 158 for June 21. That person stands to make $39.5 million if my target hits. OI for 180 puts keeps going up this week. We could see major correction tomorrow. Sponge, once again you’re reading open interest wrong. More OI in puts help put a floor in AAPL at strikes where puts > calls. Conversely, where OI in calls exceed puts, there is pressure against the stock price closing above that strike.
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Post by mercel on May 14, 2019 16:37:19 GMT -8
A concern with China is the government’s willingness to push a nationalistic spin favoring “grown at home” products. Apple is likely in those crosshairs, and not in a good way. Trump really doesn’t care about policy; he’s motivated by ego and his malignant narcissism. Too, he’s likely listening more to Peter Navarro than more moderate voices on trade policy. Recently, Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota, said he believes quotas are more likely than tariffs within the automotive industry, which will be inflationary and produce job losses.
All of my positions are long term, but all this volatility is so unnecessary.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 14, 2019 16:46:29 GMT -8
Anyway, I thought that was what the political category was for. Most forums have a section where it is essentially unmoderated thread that, no matter what the stated or ostensible reason, is really for people who can't argue very well or persuasively. The Dungeon thread serves that purpose here, in the naive hope that politics can be kept out of the more investment or technology oriented threads.
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Post by 2centsplus on May 14, 2019 18:05:21 GMT -8
My main point is that you have some hugely incompetent pretender negotiating with the Chinese who will own him. And he will crow about a hollow and non existent victory. Right on Lstream
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2019 18:07:25 GMT -8
We're going to have to disagree on this, prudent though it may be. I'd rather have the unvarnished (how many even know what varnish is these days? ) than a cleaned up pc version of what they're thinking. I'm more than capable of sorting it out on my own. Don't give me this "cleaned up pc version" shit. You don't even grasp what I'm saying. Maybe you're not capable of sorting it out on your own. It's about the substance. No substance nothing there for me.
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Post by Lstream on May 14, 2019 18:09:00 GMT -8
That is one of my stronger quotes, right there
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Post by 2centsplus on May 14, 2019 18:14:01 GMT -8
My main point is that you have some hugely incompetent pretender negotiating with the Chinese who will own him. And he will crow about a hollow and non existent victory. Right on Lstream Fixed it
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Post by BillH on May 14, 2019 18:17:49 GMT -8
Don't give me this "cleaned up pc version" shit. You don't even grasp what I'm saying. Maybe you're not capable of sorting it out on your own. It's about the substance. No substance nothing there for me. Here's what I grasp. " Maybe you're not capable of sorting it out on your own." "it only proves you don't grasp the issue very well." "is really for people who can't argue very well or persuasively." Dissing others and resorting to profanity under the pretense of a more civilized conversation strikes me as trolling. You're pretty good at it.
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Post by sponge on May 14, 2019 18:37:04 GMT -8
Someone just bought $5.6 million worth of 170 June 21 PUTS. My target is 158 for June 21. That person stands to make $39.5 million if my target hits. OI for 180 puts keeps going up this week. We could see major correction tomorrow. Sponge, once again you’re reading open interest wrong. More OI in puts help put a floor in AAPL at strikes where puts > calls. Conversely, where OI in calls exceed puts, there is pressure against the stock price closing above that strike. No you are correct. It is a floor. But when you see that many contracts traded and OI going up, it gives one pause. Further given the recent tariff market moves and history repeating itself from the fall, it is not out of context to expect further downward moves well beyond 170. Side note when we dropped to 142 it was 28% below the 200MA. If we drop to 143 then we would once again be below the 200MA by 28%.. Looking back in 2009, 2013, and 2016 we hit 28% below the 200MA. In my view we are in uncharted territory we could fall well be we low that or the low will happen in the late fall.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on May 14, 2019 19:22:16 GMT -8
It was my post that was deleted. I made no personal attack on any member here. Unless Trump is a member. There have been all kinds of insults and attacks on here by Trump supporters to non-believers. And the other way around too. As far as I know, none have ever been deleted. I guess my post struck a nerve with a mod because of what I said about Trump. Which in summary was: 1. He is a failed businessman in spite of $400M from Daddy. 2. He is damaging innocents like farmers and honest businesses without having a clue what he is doing. 3. My main point is that you have some hugely incompetent pretender negotiating with the Chinese who will own him. And he will crow about a hollow and non existent victory. 4. And finally, that he is an entitled fat ass, laughing at the people supporting him. A charlatan. All on a day where Apple shareholders took a bath as a direct result of his idiocy. Just watch. Our shareholder pain will be for nothing. And all the damage he is causing to farmers and businesses will be for nothing. Because all he cares about is the feeding of his narcissistic personality. He will sell every one of these stakeholders out. Just watch and wait for it. Let’s see how long this post stays up, before it gets deleted by someone who can’t handle someone who is having none of the nonsense that is Trump.
the post above by lstream from earlier today got 17 likes, looks like.... that's despite having some strong language about trump (even name-calling, fine).
it's testament to growing frustration of many aapl investors and board members with trump and his policies.
to those of you who get personally slighted when anything bad is said about trump.... grow a thicker skin. nobody's insulting *you* - we're griping about someone with direct power over our economic well-being. you'd have to at least admit that his tweets and words in the last week were alone responsible for a 12%+ drop in aapl (earnings were pretty good, as we know from the market reaction)
many of us fear much worse... china had some informal boycotts already at the end of 2018 - now they could resume, and if trump puts additional 300b tariffs then even more damage to aapl. don't expect us to pussy-foot with careful language when trump himself yells at everyone with a mix of bravado and bile.
and it's ludicrous to just expect everything to end up in the dungeon when it directly, disproportionately and massively affects aapl on a daily basis
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Post by 2centsplus on May 14, 2019 19:35:07 GMT -8
firestorm, what’s your view?
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