Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 20, 2019 2:24:56 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on May 20, 2019 5:48:21 GMT -8
Is this a 'BTFD' or 'Don't try catching a falling knife'?
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coma
Member
Posts: 519
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Post by coma on May 20, 2019 5:54:30 GMT -8
Is this a 'BTFD' or 'Don't try catching a falling knife'? Check it out and report back . . .
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Post by sponge on May 20, 2019 6:02:57 GMT -8
This steep of a drop was unexpected. The sudden loss of momentum on Friday at the end of the day did signal weakness.
This type of volatility I guess is the norm for aapl in this environment . The market did not pull us down this time so it was panic selling in aapl only.
I still think we will recover and close above 190 by end of the week.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 20, 2019 6:03:48 GMT -8
Is this a 'BTFD' or 'Don't try catching a falling knife'? Check it out and report back . . . Not doing a thing till I hear Sponge's price targets for the day
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on May 20, 2019 6:16:23 GMT -8
depends on your time horizon, for short plays it's probably a falling knife, but for longer-term (1yr+) more likely BTFD.
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Post by hledgard on May 20, 2019 6:24:17 GMT -8
I sold some today too. Worried about Sponge's prediction. Would like to see what his targets are for today too.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on May 20, 2019 6:25:04 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on May 20, 2019 6:41:48 GMT -8
Worried about Sponge's prediction. Would like to see what his targets are for today too. Glad you still have a sense of humor after all this.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on May 20, 2019 6:55:03 GMT -8
Off of a similar article from CNN: Basically Google is cutting off SW and Services from Huawei phones, though just new ones for now, both in China and elsewhere (~50% of sales). In China many use non-google apps and services since some weren't even allowed there, but elsewhere... And Microsoft hasn't said what they are doing yet, but it sounds like they are next, with Windows, Office, and Services for laptops/desktops. Potential short term and long term issues for Apple due to the trade war look minor in comparison, and this could even help Apple if Huawei is neutralized or set back for a bit.
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Post by Lstream on May 20, 2019 7:02:20 GMT -8
Might be good for Apple, but I kind of doubt it. China is seeing its flagship tech company attacked. I think there is chance that instead of being good for Apple, that China fabricates a case against it, and retaliates by making an example of Apple. Then look out. Hope not, but I think that is one of many possible scenarios. Including unofficial boycotts in China.
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Post by northstar on May 20, 2019 7:07:55 GMT -8
I remember being so worried, near the end of the Apple Corps v Apple Computer litigation... things could have changed so dramatically either way, Apples's very existence was in the balance. My financial future pointed in right angled directions, win or lose. Since then there have been many assaults upon the core of Apple Inc., most ineffective. Behold now their new home, their armour glinting in the sunset. Eschewing dragons, their quiet business acumen has proved effective over time and continents. Can they prevail against the assault from the Forces from the East? We've not yet begun to see... wild cards interfere... so stake your positions. Do what helps you sleep at night.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on May 20, 2019 8:22:02 GMT -8
Might be good for Apple, but I kind of doubt it. China is seeing its flagship tech company attacked. I think there is chance that instead of being good for Apple, that China fabricates a case against it, and retaliates by making an example of Apple. Then look out. Hope not, but I think that is one of many possible scenarios. Including unofficial boycotts in China. I agree, but it is helped that it's not just Apple. With Google and Microsoft (assumedly) getting into the mix, and maybe even intel/AMD if really going for it, it quickly spreads the finger pointing. The "retaliate on anything from the US" could still be painful, and then there's the nuclear option with iPhone production, but as far as consumer sales Apple has the advantage that a smaller percentage would be affected. (guessing, maybe 20-30% max in China, since a little over 60% is abroad, vs Huawei's 50% non-china) Heck, qualcom's chip would be an issue too. I know Huawei was trying to find takers for it's 5G phone chips, but I don't know if their phones chips are already completely non-US based, across the board. Lots of moving parts, and it's hard to know what will matter the most in the mid to longer term. I'm going to go play with brakes, insulation, and chainsaws...but separately.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on May 20, 2019 8:25:03 GMT -8
This steep of a drop was unexpected. The sudden loss of momentum on Friday at the end of the day did signal weakness. This type of volatility I guess is the norm for aapl in this environment . The market did not pull us down this time so it was panic selling in aapl only. I still think we will recover and close above 190 by end of the week.
you bought weekly calls on friday, right? what strike? this is a gamble, i assume, and you're prepared to lose it...
...then on weekend you also said you're in cash mostly and waiting to see aapl at $97... when should we expect the big drop, oracle?
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Post by sponge on May 20, 2019 9:29:59 GMT -8
This steep of a drop was unexpected. The sudden loss of momentum on Friday at the end of the day did signal weakness. This type of volatility I guess is the norm for aapl in this environment . The market did not pull us down this time so it was panic selling in aapl only. I still think we will recover and close above 190 by end of the week. you bought weekly calls on friday, right? what strike? this is a gamble, i assume, and you're prepared to lose it... ...then on weekend you also said you're in cash mostly and waiting to see aapl at $97... when should we expect the big drop, oracle?
Yes a gamble on the weeklies. Not too concerned since we have plenty of time to recover. I bought the 190 I don’t see the big drop until June 2020. We could still see 210 this September after the summer drop in June and July. The new iPhones in September won’t do well at all and the market will worry about the 2020 iPhones and presidential elections next summer
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Post by artman1033 on May 20, 2019 9:31:43 GMT -8
Might be good for Apple, but I kind of doubt it. China is seeing its flagship tech company attacked. I think there is chance that instead of being good for Apple, that China fabricates a case against it, and retaliates by making an example of Apple. Then look out. Hope not, but I think that is one of many possible scenarios. Including unofficial boycotts in China. I thought there were over 1 million Chinese folks involved with products. I don't think attacking would be helpful to China.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on May 20, 2019 9:41:13 GMT -8
Might be good for Apple, but I kind of doubt it. China is seeing its flagship tech company attacked. I think there is chance that instead of being good for Apple, that China fabricates a case against it, and retaliates by making an example of Apple. Then look out. Hope not, but I think that is one of many possible scenarios. Including unofficial boycotts in China. I thought there were over 1 million Chinese folks involved with products. I don't think attacking would be helpful to China. you don't need a gov-t sanctioned official expulsion to hurt apple significantly....
fears of continued effects on apple clearly visible in the stock today... and all of last week
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 20, 2019 10:22:00 GMT -8
Though attacking Apple might seem a logical move for the Chinese, such a move potentially has significant repercussions, including the unanticipated given how complex the Apple supply chain is.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on May 20, 2019 10:30:06 GMT -8
Yes a gamble on the weeklies. Not too concerned since we have plenty of time to recover. I bought the 190 well plenty of time is relative... you got about 4 trading days, plus 90 min staring at the screen on friday afternoon... looking at the 190s they were in $2-$4 range last week, I'll assume you got them around $2.50-3 (trading around 44 cents currently... down, what, 85%?) you'll need aapl at $193 just to break even, $195-$196 to double (100% return would seem necessary reward for putting 100% at risk). so then you could stare at the screen on friday as aapl is bouncing a few cents up and down around $190... exciting!!! look, I don't mean to intrude... it's your money... but there are *definitely* cheaper and more fun ways to be a masochist! i already recommended vegas... but there's other things... fun things! My lawyer knows a guy, who knows a guy... who knows another guy, who specializes in this sorta thing! very satisfied clientele, if you know what I mean... anyway, you lose some on puts, you lose some on calls, life goes on... it's all good, man!
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Post by sponge on May 20, 2019 10:35:03 GMT -8
Though attacking Apple might seem a logical move for the Chinese, such a move potentially has significant repercussions, including the unanticipated given how complex the Apple supply chain is. I think folks are underestimating how much pain China is willing to take for in order to punish Trump and get him to back down. Their survival is dependent on the big trade imbalances where they pay no tariffs while US companies who don’t manufacture like Apple in the country have to pay tariffs. Everyone complains about the raiding of tariffs but forget that China has been charging for years on US goods
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Post by firestorm on May 20, 2019 10:39:13 GMT -8
I just glanced at AAPL and it was down $6.66. That can't be good.
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Post by sponge on May 20, 2019 10:46:18 GMT -8
Yes a gamble on the weeklies. Not too concerned since we have plenty of time to recover. I bought the 190 well plenty of time is relative... you got about 4 trading days, plus 90 min staring at the screen on friday afternoon... looking at the 190s they were in $2-$4 range last week, I'll assume you got them around $2.50-3 (trading around 44 cents currently... down, what, 85%?) you'll need aapl at $193 just to break even, $195-$196 to double (100% return would seem necessary reward for putting 100% at risk). so then you could stare at the screen on friday as aapl is bouncing a few cents up and down around $190... exciting!!! look, I don't mean to intrude... it's your money... but there are *definitely* cheaper and more fun ways to be a masochist! i already recommended vegas... but there's other things... fun things! My lawyer knows a guy, who knows a guy... who knows another guy, who specializes in this sorta thing! very satisfied clientele, if you know what I mean... anyway, you lose some on puts, you lose some on calls, life goes on... it's all good, man! Actually in order to recover it needs to capture 189 in two days otherwise it is over. It did make a lower low today so odds are not great. It needed to get back to 185 today and that is not happening So it has time but short term it must move up quickly. I have seen options be down 95% and recover and go up 200%. I should point out that I don’t think Trump really cares about Apple. Their CEO is an activist liberal who loves to lecture the world about privacy and security while dealing with the Chinese and hiding behind following local laws.
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Post by firestorm on May 20, 2019 11:21:33 GMT -8
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on May 20, 2019 11:51:35 GMT -8
remember the trade war scam, it's all about the buy backs.
is Apple out of the blackout period yet?
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Post by macster on May 20, 2019 12:19:36 GMT -8
I just glanced at AAPL and it was down $6.66. That can't be good. A far left person using biblical cliches’? Ok no problem with sarcasm (-;
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Post by deasys on May 20, 2019 12:26:30 GMT -8
Worried about Sponge's prediction. I think we all worry about Sponge and his predictions.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 20, 2019 12:32:23 GMT -8
well plenty of time is relative... you got about 4 trading days, plus 90 min staring at the screen on friday afternoon... looking at the 190s they were in $2-$4 range last week, I'll assume you got them around $2.50-3 (trading around 44 cents currently... down, what, 85%?) you'll need aapl at $193 just to break even, $195-$196 to double (100% return would seem necessary reward for putting 100% at risk). so then you could stare at the screen on friday as aapl is bouncing a few cents up and down around $190... exciting!!! look, I don't mean to intrude... it's your money... but there are *definitely* cheaper and more fun ways to be a masochist! i already recommended vegas... but there's other things... fun things! My lawyer knows a guy, who knows a guy... who knows another guy, who specializes in this sorta thing! very satisfied clientele, if you know what I mean... anyway, you lose some on puts, you lose some on calls, life goes on... it's all good, man! Actually in order to recover it needs to capture 189 in two days otherwise it is over. It did make a lower low today so odds are not great. It needed to get back to 185 today and that is not happening So it has time but short term it must move up quickly. I have seen options be down 95% and recover and go up 200%. I should point out that I don’t think Trump really cares about Apple. Their CEO is an activist liberal who loves to lecture the world about privacy and security while dealing with the Chinese and hiding behind following local laws. Since your signature line is, "Invest in Apple and give yourself an early retirement.", I can't help but wonder if you mean "Invest in Apple..." before or after Apple gets rid of that "activist liberal" scum. Please clarify. TIA
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Post by macster on May 20, 2019 12:33:20 GMT -8
remember the trade war scam, it's all about the buy backs. is Apple out of the blackout period yet? 100 billion buyback reserves divided by $182 = 549,450,549.45054945054945 shares to repurchase. Still worried.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,544
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Post by mark on May 20, 2019 13:54:40 GMT -8
Though attacking Apple might seem a logical move for the Chinese, such a move potentially has significant repercussions, including the unanticipated given how complex the Apple supply chain is. I think folks are underestimating how much pain China is willing to take for in order to punish Trump and get him to back down. Their survival is dependent on the big trade imbalances where they pay no tariffs while US companies who don’t manufacture like Apple in the country have to pay tariffs. Everyone complains about the raiding of tariffs but forget that China has been charging for years on US goods I'm not so sure that China would take long-term pain for a short-term problem like the current president. After all, in 2 years he will just be a fading memory, while companies diversifying both their supply chains and manufacturing capacity will just be beginning (and will remain for decades if the lesson is indeed learned).
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Post by mercel on May 20, 2019 16:02:55 GMT -8
Sponge is a performer. Are you not entertained?
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