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2013
Sept 19, 2012 8:30:37 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 19, 2012 8:30:37 GMT -8
2013 loosely speaking. Kind of like auto-dealers who say their cars are 2013 models when it’s still August here.
1. The year of Retina Displays: 2013. By the end of the year, most Apple devices will be Retina-oriented.
2. Siri: Major update in the next 2 months. You can be sure the ad campaign will be interesting. UPDATE: not much at all.
3. Mountain Lion: renewed focus on Voice control and dictation. For some of us, this is a big deal. It’s here now. Traction is just getting started. Early adopters know. I foresee a nice ad campaign here IF this passes the real world tests of noise, dialects and grammar parsing. UPDATE: not much at all.
4. SSD Macs. Slow but sure, more SSD Macs, especially laptops (duh). Fusion Drive iMacs added Oct 2012.
5. Strategic Purchases and long term alliances for Passbook: Either in hardware, software or customer base.
6. Music, Movie and App Stores -- facelift announced for late November 2012, I think.
7. Apple makes a push to get its stores ready for holiday launch. Remodeling plans are finalized. It’s just a matter of getting the contractors on the job. UPDATE: not much at all.
8. New International stores get new emphasis. More countries for sure. Apple is going global and they are going to act like it.
9. Currently, Apple is solidifying its base customers with prime retail stores. US flagship stores and near flagship in prime locations are maxed out—if you think that Apple growth is limited around its current stores and customer base. Instead, Apple tests stores in smaller communities and better relations with its partners, big and small. (I’m going out on a limb here. But the nature of growth in the US is different these days.) There are high-end communities which are served by third-party retailers, some of which are tiny. Apple has ignored them so the third-party retailers have a chance. This is a long-term project.
10. Security enhancements are finally seeing the light of day with Mountain Lion and more. This is not the end. Malware downloads and phishing should be everyone’s concern. In practicality, the situation is worse than ever, not better.
11. Cloud of all kinds. The smoother the cloud, the more the customers enjoy being “locked” in. UPDATE: hmmmm
12. Hardware enhancements: 4 G, WiMax, wide adoption of 512 GB SSD, finger print authentication, Kinect, wireless recharging, NFC (near field communications). These are out there, but is everything slower to adopt than I would like ?
13. Samsung finally pays up to Apple. Over $ 2 billion.
14. Tech community gains more leverage with Facebook because of Facebook’s many “issues”. UPDATE: Facebook and Amazon might start their own search engines. Google is on shaky ground.
15. Apple data centers. I suspect we will see more of them in other countries. Hong Kong data center is likely next year -- just announced.
16. Apple hardware partners expand except for Samsung.
17. China Mobile (dolemite's comment): UPDATE: this will be the year.
18. Maps in iOS 6 and local search. Changes are imminent, like in 35 minutes. UPDATE: hot topic, although Maps don't matter to me this year. Next year, for sure tho.
19. Search engine to replace Google. I believe in a year that Google will be forced out from iOS as the default. Bing is on the slow rise. And Apple has enough pride to do it themselves. One way or another, I can't see Google being in Apple products as default, 12 months from now.
20. iPad Mini -- most of us think its coming in a couple months. I can envision iPad mini’s with or without Retina. Retina would blow the socks off the competition. Low price would amputate Kindle sales, never mind the socks. UPDATE: never mind Retina or Kindle. iPad mini is hot.
21. Apple is testing iOS 6 with Walmart at checkout. This could be epic. Yet another way to “lock” in customers for the long run. UPDATE: not much
22. Apple vs. Pandora.
UPDATE: Not much. There is no sign yet that I would be able to eliminate my bank with Passbook and related apps.
There’s no sign yet that content providers have lost their dominance. Its a long game.
Macro-economic conditions have an effect on Apple hardware releases ? Maybe in the past. This can only go on so long. Apple will release hardware when they are ready.
NOTE: LIST is cross posted from old AFB, and enhanced with suggestions from dolemite, Mav, AdamThompson and others.
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2013
Sept 19, 2012 9:07:24 GMT -8
Post by drewbear on Sept 19, 2012 9:07:24 GMT -8
Nice list. I think the big ones will be iPad mini, Siri, iCloud and China Mobile. Most of the MacBook line will get Retina displays, but I'm not sure manufacturing capabilities will make it feasible price-wise for large display Macs...in 2013. And maybe Apple is working on a different display technology altogether; one that could also be used for TV sets.
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2013
Oct 1, 2012 5:49:46 GMT -8
Post by rickag on Oct 1, 2012 5:49:46 GMT -8
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2013
Oct 14, 2012 5:48:18 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 14, 2012 5:48:18 GMT -8
Untied hardware issues.
23. iPod classic. Still at 160 gb. 1131 days since last update 24. iMac 530 days 25. Cinema Display 395 days
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2013
Oct 14, 2012 6:56:06 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 14, 2012 6:56:06 GMT -8
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2013
Oct 14, 2012 12:37:11 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Oct 14, 2012 12:37:11 GMT -8
Waiting on the next iMac has been aggravating. Expecting thinner, would not be surprised to see Apple make the move away from the DVD drive and have an SSD option. The chin, please get rid of the chin.
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Mav
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2013
Oct 14, 2012 12:42:16 GMT -8
Post by Mav on Oct 14, 2012 12:42:16 GMT -8
Keep it! Allows room for the Apple, Post-Its, speakers, makes the iMac seem not so high off the desk, visual presence.
Can it be improved, the way the current iMac makes the other iMac look kind of old? Sure. Make that metal band smaller, sleeker.
If Tim Cook and Co. didn't say "new iMac in 2013" (that's just for the is-it-really-happening Mac Pro), I think it's high time for new iMac as a warm-up to iPad mini! (Just in time too, seeing that expanded Seagate 1TB HD recall for iMacs and all.)
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2013
Oct 23, 2012 14:37:30 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 23, 2012 14:37:30 GMT -8
Now we know. Way better looking shell. Massively reduced glare. More speed than even I know what to do with.
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2013
Nov 13, 2012 8:01:27 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 13, 2012 8:01:27 GMT -8
1. Retina displays continue to have consumers' attention. If iPad mini gets Retina, its blast off. 6. Passbook is slow in adoption. It personally has zero effect on me. 13. Samsung payments may be effectively null.
EPS estimate for FY 2013: $ 58
Roger that, roni... will add some white space.
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2013
Nov 18, 2012 12:52:05 GMT -8
Post by roni on Nov 18, 2012 12:52:05 GMT -8
I would just ask long list makers to insert a blank line between the items on the list.
A little white space goes a long way in improving readability for this 61 year old's eyes.
Thanks
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2013
Dec 1, 2012 15:46:40 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 1, 2012 15:46:40 GMT -8
2. iPhone ad campaign. Not a big deal as far as I know. 6. iTunes 11 released. AFB thread started11. Cloud integration increased with iTunes 11. 14. Facebook is clawing back with new tracking methods. 16. Rumors continue of hardware partners: Sharp, AMD, Intel to name a few. 18. Maps: Let's hope in 3-6 months that clean improvements are easily seen across the entire Maps spectrum 20. iPad mini popularity is a good looking long term rocket. 24. 2012 iMacs 21" and 27" are now on sale. Pundits wonder if there will be a huge gap in product announcements in January and February. Speculation is for a new Apple TV media streaming device. Rumors of Apple Television display have faded away.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2012 13:33:13 GMT -8
Judging by recent smartphone Marketshare stats, I can quite confidently say that apple iMaps now has over 50% marketshare of the US mobile market (phones & tablets).
Suck it google.
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2013
Dec 3, 2012 13:23:39 GMT -8
Post by qualitywte on Dec 3, 2012 13:23:39 GMT -8
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2013
Dec 3, 2012 13:44:24 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Dec 3, 2012 13:44:24 GMT -8
I think he has lost his mind. LOL
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2013
Dec 3, 2012 14:18:49 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 3, 2012 14:18:49 GMT -8
56 M iPhones and other numbers at 42 % GM gets to that EPS, but not 66 B Revenue.
42 GM is unlikely for historical and economic reasons, not to mention cannibalization by iPhone 4 and 4S.
(posted for the benefit of lurkers)
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2013
Dec 23, 2012 12:31:58 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 23, 2012 12:31:58 GMT -8
The coming quarter appears to be the weakest in over a decade for product announcements. There's no credible sign of a major launch for the quarter.
Some speculation at a stretch outside of the usual categories:
a. iWork '13/14 b. Apple pro apps (Final Cut) c. Mac Pros d. Mobile payments
What the marketing department is going to do until WWDC... Tijuana Gold ?
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2013
Dec 23, 2012 17:45:05 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 23, 2012 17:45:05 GMT -8
20. Calendar year 2013 iPad mini estimate: 60 M ?
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2013
Dec 23, 2012 19:01:36 GMT -8
Post by mbeauch on Dec 23, 2012 19:01:36 GMT -8
20. Calendar year 2013 iPad mini estimate: 60 M ? That is so far ahead of the curve I can't put it into words. With that being said, once it goes retina that number may prove to be low. I think FQ1 2014 will see 20+ mil mini's, so yeah, it does seem possible since China should eat them up.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 19:44:37 GMT -8
The coming quarter appears to be the weakest in over a decade for product announcements. There's no credible sign of a major launch for the quarter. Some speculation at a stretch outside of the usual categories: a. iWork '13/14 b. Apple pro apps (Final Cut) c. Mac Pros d. Mobile payments What the marketing department is going to do until WWDC... Tijuana Gold ? Macrumors: Thinner, Lighter 5th Generation iPad to Arrive in March 2013? Dec 23, 2012 5:22 pm PST by Husain Sumra Japanese blog Macotakara is reporting that a redesigned fifth-generation iPad could arrive in March 2013. However Chinese news ZOL (CBS Interactive) reported next iPad mini in AppleInsider's article, according to my inside source, iPad(5th) may be released in March, 2013. Source told that, design of this new iPad will be like iPad mini in detail, and be thinner and lightweight. Apple just released the fourth-generation iPad about two months ago, which could make this fifth-generation iPad, if the report is true, the second in five months. The design is said to have taken inspiration from the iPad mini and will be thinner and more lightweight. According to the site, the new iPad will 4mm, 17mm and 2mm smaller in height, width, and depth than the current models. Previously, DigiTimes also reported that a new iPad could appear in the "Middle of 2013". Except for the fourth-generation iPad and iPad mini, new iPads are have traditionally released in the first couple months of the year. Macotakara has been a source of accurate information in the past, predicting the design of this year's iPod Nano and iPod Touch.
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2013
Dec 28, 2012 15:32:26 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 28, 2012 15:32:26 GMT -8
26. iWork 13/14. Upon further review, it seems likely Apple will re-calibrate itself to make iPad mini's a productivity device for education and light users. That is, optimizations of stuff here and there.
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2013
Jan 2, 2013 7:30:35 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 2, 2013 7:30:35 GMT -8
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2013
Jan 2, 2013 9:49:40 GMT -8
Post by appledoc on Jan 2, 2013 9:49:40 GMT -8
No way the next iPhone is released before WWDC. That means it's July at the earliest.
I favor a late August or early September release.
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2013
Jan 5, 2013 9:23:58 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 5, 2013 9:23:58 GMT -8
If I were Apple, I'd be buying whole factories to crank out iPad mini's. For iPhones, I expect a long-term revolution in battery charging and battery life. There's a number of technologies in middle range of development. I was skeptical about the mini until I was able to hold one, then I became amazed. It is something I see parents buying for kids. I also see almost all women migrating to the mini just because of the way it fits in their hand. I like the mini, it is just not big enough for me. I like the bigger screen when an app is designed for the ipad (not a phone app expanded) . Apple is going to sell a lot of mini's and will most certainly slow the Android growth in the tablet sector. Tammy has the original ipad and I expect to get her a mini for Christmas. The next version of the mini should have the retina display which our eyes need. Crossposted from the Q1 thread.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 5, 2013 10:29:22 GMT -8
One thing in my own mind I have come to a firm conclusion of based on a litany of data: MOST people who buy an other than apple phone or tablet are doing so knowing they are buying second best and would prefer an apple device. Yes there are some die hard hardware geeks that want an anything but apple device however, that number is a very small minority when compared to the entire market. What makes that demographic seem larger is they are simply more apt to be vocal on a blog, comments etc on touting the "superior hardware" of what they have. Given this and the runaway success of the mini I really hope Tim C et al are working like busy bees to see how they can make a different model of phone with lower Cost Of Goods Sold (COGS) to reach the segment of the market that can't afford a 600 dollar phone but can afford say 200 dollars on a pay per go operation. All this without compromising quality (not asking for much am I?) but feature compromise is okay. If they could make a phone and sell it at about 200 dollars unlocked they would annihilate Samsung. People aren't buying Samsung because of quality or that its a better phone, they are buying it because its cheap. A cheaper unlocked phone would eliminate carrier negotiation issues in emerging markets also. IMHO Apple's leverage is way less than it was simply as more carriers have it the less exclusivity of the offering. Margins? Yes margins are probably going down. Margins go down as competition increases and the type of product saturates the market (the mass adoption model). This is a natural phase in tech and the only way to hold margins up is to come out with another exclusive product. Anyone in tech knows market timing is critical and the longer you stay above the competition the longer you can hold those margins up. Although margins will go down IMHO Apple's will still be way above any competitors. Here is my WAG at what the characteristics of a cheaper phone could look like that would do well in this market segment. Smaller screen if necessary. Less powerful processor (previous generation). Some kind of micro memory card slot (memory price quadruples from 16-64GB) or a fallback would be just 16GB. 3G Colors. If you look at the cost breakdown you can see what components cost the most. I do understand BTW some may not be able to be reduced. www.isuppli.com/Teardowns/News/pages/iPhone5-Carries-$199-BOM-Virtual-Teardown-Reveals.aspxA few notes: Obviously not suggesting they stop producing the high end phone. Different market segment. The assembly costs and battery are much lower than I expected. The current iPhone has some of the most expensive and latest parts. People buying a 200 dollar phone, looking for an iPhone don't care so much about this. Anyway sorry for the long post but its a slow Saturday and at this point in their lifecycle unless Apple is going to come out with a completely new disruptive product that was as revolutionary as the iPhone that will equal or exceed the revenue of the iPhone, the above path is probably necessary to grab a huge market share. I won't be waiting for Tim to call me BTW :-)
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2013
Jan 5, 2013 10:41:32 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 5, 2013 10:41:32 GMT -8
Believe it or not, I advised my brother to hold on to his Android phone for a while due to larger screen. He is not one for delicate control and he could use the big screen for basic maps. In his case, cost and screen size are the key, in that order. When the Android breaks, then we can re-evaluate.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 5, 2013 11:04:39 GMT -8
Yeah I only compromised on screen size for the wish phone because it is the largest cost. I am not even sure a smaller screen would be cheaper. I hear the new gorilla glass is better than what we have right now. My point is what we have right now is great so if it is cheaper than the new gorilla glass then put that in an unlocked cheaper phone. In fact what I am suggesting is/has already been done by apple. The entire iPod is exactly how they play the phone market also with albeit maybe not so many models. When the iPod game out it was so far better than anything else on the market. Well the market caught up, apple continued to innovate on the high end but still sold lower end music players and still dominates the market to this day.
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2013
Jan 7, 2013 14:37:28 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 14:37:28 GMT -8
17. China Mobile: Over at Braeburn, Pat has been analyzing modem and wifi technology. A recent addition to Qualcomm product line has probably allowed the next iPhone to be China Mobile Compatible. 27b. Corning's third generation Gorilla Glass AppleInsider Jan 327c. 80211 ac Wi-fi. "N" technology is good. "ac" is better. 27d. NFC on a chip Hard core investors should read this link. Broadcom recently announced the quad combo chip. www.broadcom.com/products/NFC/NFC-Solutions/BCM4334127e. The IGZO screen technology from Sharp and AUO. 27f. The A7 chip
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Mav
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2013
Jan 7, 2013 14:42:59 GMT -8
Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 14:42:59 GMT -8
Isn't the iPhone 5 already China Mobile compatible? The chipset supports the TD-SCDMA/TD-LTE networks, I thought.
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2013
Jan 7, 2013 14:52:12 GMT -8
Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 7, 2013 14:52:12 GMT -8
Pat says: I was unaware that only WTR1605 in conjunction with appropriate baseband is capable of working with TD-SCDMA
So, keyword is WTR1605.
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Mav
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2013
Jan 7, 2013 14:55:05 GMT -8
Post by Mav on Jan 7, 2013 14:55:05 GMT -8
Well, if it takes iPhone 5S, so be it. It only puts more and more pressure on China Mobile.
Quick news check shows TD-LTE isn't really out there on China Mobile anyway.
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