chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jun 5, 2019 5:38:08 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 5, 2019 7:11:33 GMT -8
Good morning everyone! Thanks chinacat for opening the threads, this week with the daily, and over so many years on the weekend. As a reminder, we're looking for a little help starting the daily thread. Anyone can do it, and while Since84 opened it for years with a lengthy list of Apple/AAPL links, we've also opened before with Apple/AAPL thoughts or conversation starters. If you come here and there's not yet a daily or weekend thread, open one! While we can set up a schedule (i.e. Lucky on Mondays), for now if you see that it isn't open yet, go for it. It's a simple process, and if you make a mistake like titling it with Tuesday instead of Wednesday as sometimes happens, it's easy to edit that later . Not everyone has the time to post things here consistently, and as we saw from the Friday post thanking Since84 for all of his had work over the years, there are a lot of people that come here daily to see what is going on, even if they just read or rarely post. Let's keep things going, and transform some of that reader base into occasional posters. I know between all of us, we have lots of ideas. I'll see about adding a forum area for ideas on managing the forum, trying to crowdsource it a bit. For years we've used the "self-moderate" format, and it's worked as long as people remember to stay on topic and put their posts that stray from AAPL/Apple, whether that's politics or other topics, in the Dungeon instead. And that's good, because we only have a few volunteers to be moderators currently, and frankly those of us that are doing it don't really want to have to do much in managing the forum. Guiding principles are much less time intensive than micro-managing. Self-moderating with occasional reminders works well. If interested in being a moderator, PM me. It's a thankless task, but is generally very low work, more of a small group where we occasionally have to ask "hmmmm, how should we deal with this" type thing. We're aiming for 5 (or so) moderators instead of the 3 we have at the moment. Thanks everyone! If interested in opening the daily or weekend thread, just jump on in.
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Post by dreamRaj on Jun 5, 2019 7:11:38 GMT -8
Well, that's something. Now let's get back to 215
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Post by sponge on Jun 5, 2019 7:12:03 GMT -8
Here is a table courtesy Andy Zacky So I think a 16% move from the lows is very possible in the next 30 days. I am actually counting on a swift move by end of next week.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jun 5, 2019 7:26:31 GMT -8
So I think a 16% move from the lows is very possible in the next 30 days. I am actually counting on a swift move by end of next week.
16% move from lows (170-something) is only 197.50... not particularly impressive when stock traded near 215 after earnings... nice bounce on reaction to wwdc, but i continue to think it would be pushing ATH if not for trade war BS
max pain (http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/) all over the place... 190 this week, 177.50 next week, 185 june 21... it's the last one that might matter, there are lots of both puts and calls at 185 strike on june 21
just a week later is g20 summit in japan... that will likely have more bearing on aapl short-term than anything else... why are trump-xi talks not being scheduled?
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Post by sponge on Jun 5, 2019 7:31:18 GMT -8
Based on call volume for this week, I think there is a real chance we close around 187 this Friday. The stock really wants to move up. It normally averages about 1.5x the SPY move, but at times that can go up to 3x.
There are quite a few calls at 185 for OE this month, so that is my target for where we end up by June 21.
The market is moving based on anticipated Fed Cut. So trade wars for a couple days are not important.
The economy is slowing down fast and the fed sees that. I think Apple will be impacted for the next 12 to 16 months.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jun 5, 2019 7:31:54 GMT -8
Good morning everyone! Thanks chinacat for opening the threads, this week with the daily, and over so many years on the weekend. As a reminder, we're looking for a little help starting the daily thread. Anyone can do it, and while Since84 opened it for years with a lengthy list of Apple/AAPL links, we've also opened before with Apple/AAPL thoughts or conversation starters. If you come here and there's not yet a daily or weekend thread, open one! While we can set up a schedule (i.e. Lucky on Mondays), for now if you see that it isn't open yet, go for it. It's a simple process, and if you make a mistake like titling it with Tuesday instead of Wednesday as sometimes happens, it's easy to edit that later . Not everyone has the time to post things here consistently, and as we saw from the Friday post thanking Since84 for all of his had work over the years, there are a lot of people that come here daily to see what is going on, even if they just read or rarely post. Let's keep things going, and transform some of that reader base into occasional posters.
thanks chinacat and whoever starts these things... i'll recuse myself - if I started a thread, it would have links to latest trade war developments (often likely critical of trump) as i am convinced they have a much higher influence on aapl in the short-term than anything apple insider or MacDailyNews says
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Post by sponge on Jun 5, 2019 7:37:20 GMT -8
So I think a 16% move from the lows is very possible in the next 30 days. I am actually counting on a swift move by end of next week. 16% move from lows (170-something) is only 197.50... not particularly impressive when stock traded near 215 after earnings... nice bounce on reaction to wwdc, but i continue to think it would be pushing ATH if not for trade war BS max pain (http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/) all over the place... 190 this week, 177.50 next week, 185 june 21... it's the last one that might matter, there are lots of both puts and calls at 185 strike on june 21 just a week later is g20 summit in japan... that will likely have more bearing on aapl short-term than anything else... why are trump-xi talks not being scheduled?
That is an average of 16% so it can move up higher or lower. I discount the 215 print as an anomaly. Since we are under the 200 MA, we are in a bearish cycle. We could have a quick sell off after earnings that could be an another anomaly as we move back up towards iPhone release. I noticed a pattern for as long as I can remember. We move an average of 15% from the lows of the summer to the next iPhone release. We could get lucky and move a little higher then that this year. For me what is hard to figure out is where we will be in August. Could we revisit the 170?
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 5, 2019 8:43:06 GMT -8
thanks chinacat and whoever starts these things... i'll recuse myself - if I started a thread, it would have links to latest trade war developments (often likely critical of trump) as i am convinced they have a much higher influence on aapl in the short-term than anything apple insider or MacDailyNews says There's nothing wrong with discussing politics or political actions, as long as it is being discussed how it relates to AAPL/Apple. What is a problem is name calling. While saying "Big Orange Duce" or "That Fucking Idiot" might feel good after a quick decline that's clearly related at least in part to current dealing in foreign politics, it's not value added and just incites issues with a group that may mostly share positive views on Apple/AAPL, but across many to all other topics has a diverse interest. Personally, I decided over a decade ago that there are something like 7 hot topic items in politics, and that anyone I voted for wasn't likely to have the same stance as me on all of them. In short, I'm never likely to be happy with everything the President or anyone else in politics believes. And so getting worked up any time I disagree, especially given the cycles and terms, just doesn't make sense. That doesn't mean not disagreeing or discussing. But, for me, it does mean that there's no reason to get hysterical over something I can't control anyways. Who needs to tilt at windmills, even if it might just be to blow off some steam. We can make this board anything we want, but if looking to the long term we want to keep people around and the community together. One way to do that is to stay on topic and not divide the herd over things not directly related. Being critical is fine if it's related, though that can stray pretty quickly. Just venting with no real goal probably isn't the best use of the space, since it has and will continue to drive others away. And so we remind people that there are myriad places to post off-topic items, whether that's the dungeon or somewhere else on the forum or internet.
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Post by lulli on Jun 5, 2019 11:41:36 GMT -8
thanks chinacat and whoever starts these things... i'll recuse myself - if I started a thread, it would have links to latest trade war developments (often likely critical of trump) as i am convinced they have a much higher influence on aapl in the short-term than anything apple insider or MacDailyNews says There's nothing wrong with discussing politics or political actions, as long as it is being discussed how it relates to AAPL/Apple. What is a problem is name calling. While saying "Big Orange Duce" or "That Fucking Idiot" might feel good after a quick decline that's clearly related at least in part to current dealing in foreign politics, it's not value added and just incites issues with a group that may mostly share positive views on Apple/AAPL, but across many to all other topics has a diverse interest. Personally, I decided over a decade ago that there are something like 7 hot topic items in politics, and that anyone I voted for wasn't likely to have the same stance as me on all of them. In short, I'm never likely to be happy with everything the President or anyone else in politics believes. And so getting worked up any time I disagree, especially given the cycles and terms, just doesn't make sense. That doesn't mean not disagreeing or discussing. But, for me, it does mean that there's no reason to get hysterical over something I can't control anyways. Who needs to tilt at windmills, even if it might just be to blow off some steam. We can make this board anything we want, but if looking to the long term we want to keep people around and the community together. One way to do that is to stay on topic and not divide the herd over things not directly related. Being critical is fine if it's related, though that can stray pretty quickly. Just venting with no real goal probably isn't the best use of the space, since it has and will continue to drive others away. And so we remind people that there are myriad places to post off-topic items, whether that's the dungeon or somewhere else on the forum or internet. I agree with what you say in general terms: The danger is always that discussions about politicians who have great power devolves into discussing issues that do not have much to do with aapl anymore and would therefore create noise and lead to useless fights that decrease the value of this board. BUT there is also the risk of muzzling valuable contributions if one becomes too sensitive about adjectives. I don't remember anyone really exploding when in the past somebody would call Obama, or Bush, or Clinton, or Reagan an "idiot", even when the label was only used to disparage, not to describe a real behavior that affects aapl. I'd like to ask moderators (and Trump supporters) on this board to look for the big picture, and not immediately jump the gun if by chance someone labels as "idiotic" some not-well-planned tweet that affects the markets and aapl.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 5, 2019 12:18:48 GMT -8
I don't remember anyone really exploding when in the past somebody would call Obama, or Bush, or Clinton, or Reagan an "idiot", even when the label was only used to disparage, not to describe a real behavior that affects aapl. I'd like to ask moderators (and Trump supporters) on this board to look for the big picture, and not immediately jump the gun if by chance someone labels as "idiotic" some not-well-planned tweet that affects the markets and aapl. The board has gone through different stages over it's life. We had a slightly stronger hand being used years ago, being a bit quicker to dish out a strict warning, along with moving or deleting posts, and temporarily banning people. Then we went through several years with no active moderator. This self-moderation worked, mostly. But it also meant there were no new accounts being approved. For the last 8 months we have had 5 moderators, and we've talked a bit about what we would like to see. We are generally happy with how self-moderation works, but with the ability to add new accounts, that's also the ability for new users to come in. That brings in new ideas, which is good. But that also brings in people that aren't used to self-moderation and the culture of the board, which means that sometimes reminders need to be handed out a little more often. Change still happens. And that's fine. But in talking to some previously top contributors who have left, often it's the political squabble that drove them away. We're also down to 3 active moderators, who'd prefer to stay inactive as far as moderation activities are concerned. We get to choose what we want out of a community. Personally, I wouldn't have volunteered to be a moderator, and now also the admin, if I didn't want to see the community continue and even flourish. If thinking twice about your wording, and where on the forum or internet you choose to post it, is what it takes to have an AAPL investor forum carry on and prosper, then that seems like a tiny step that is well worth it.
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Post by hledgard on Jun 5, 2019 13:35:29 GMT -8
Posted by 4aapl: "If thinking twice about your wording, and where on the forum or internet you choose to post it, is what it takes to have an AAPL investor forum carry on and prosper, then that seems like a tiny step that is well worth it."
I clearly agree with this. Thoughtfully said.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jun 5, 2019 13:56:16 GMT -8
I would guess it was around the year 2000 that I became interested in Apples products and culture. Couldn't get enough. And after a few years I decided to do some investing in the market, and naturally chose AAPL and went looking for some direction as I was clueless. I soon found The MacObserver and the Apple Finance Board. It was amazing in the early days. Those who were lucky enough to have been there know exactly what I mean. The amount of wisdom, experience and knowledge was a God send. Some great personalities, friendly and a willingness to share. For a very long time after reading a post I had to go to investopedia for any hope of understanding what had just been said. But slowly I started to get a clue and started to make some real money. The wisdon shared helped me through many of the markets ups and downs. This is what I think this finance board should be to those looking for a resource to AAPL/Apple. I know that the original AFB was so very unique along with its members that populated it, along with the time that it existed, but the need is still there. So what happened to the original? The management shut the forums down. They deleted everything. All the years of knowledge, experience and wisdom was gone in an instant. It was a historical documentation of that time period and the company we all love. They didn't agree with the politics. Even though there was a separate forum for political discussion that had been there from its beginning, they were unhappy with the discussion. Now that website is just a shadow of its former self. I will be the first to say that everything that happens in Washington D.C. has a lasting effect on everyone and every company in this nation and many times across the world. And we all have our opinions on most of those decisions that are forced upon us, and we each have the freedom to voice those opinions. But take it to The Dungeon where you can beat on the keyboard till your fingers go numb if it makes you feel better, just keep it out of the InterDay Updates. Just my opinion. One more thing, yes we have freedom of speech but not freedom from the consequences of that speech. If you want to destroy this resource that has been so graciously provided then lookup the definition of Troll.
End of rant.
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Post by lulli on Jun 5, 2019 15:20:50 GMT -8
The dungeon existed already when AFB was hosted by Macobserver, and political flareups happened from time to time there too, but they were not the reason why Macobserver became uninterested in hosting the board and AFB migrated here. This is the same board that was on Macobserver. It is not a new one.
Also, in the past there were real political fights related to discussing conservative vs liberal ideas, which then tended to have a runaway effect and needed to go to the dungeon, while our recent issues seem to be more due to a singular situation (Trump), the impatience of some, and the sensitivity of others. But note that this was not a sensitivity to a runaway political discussion, which should be avoided, it was a sensitivity to the way Mr. Trump was described in a couple of posts by Lstream - pretty unique stuff.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 5, 2019 20:04:28 GMT -8
...while our recent issues seem to be more due to a singular situation (Trump), the impatience of some, and the sensitivity of others. But note that this was not a sensitivity to a runaway political discussion, which should be avoided, it was a sensitivity to the way Mr. Trump was described in a couple of posts by Lstream - pretty unique stuff. I'm sorry Lulli, I was busy with a car diagnosis today and I didn't see that the main focus of your previous post was that some light name calling shouldn't result in sever punishment. No one is perfect, and when we had 5 moderators, we all talked about this sort of thing a bit. For the record, while Lovey was an active moderator she did have to move/eidt/delete a lot of things, and ban some posters, temporarily or otherwise. Though one could say the infractions were of a different scale, so was the consequences. Over the past 8 months, 1 post has been deleted, and 1 post has been moved without the request of those involved. On any board's scale, that is tiny. And there was a lot more discussion behind the scenes in what to do in the future than there was on the main board. In Lstream's case, he was asked to change the wording slightly in one post, when a lot of name calling had been made recently. Instead of doing that, he replied in a way that was seen by some as disrespectful. When called out on that, he choose to leave the board, again. It's a bit of a 2 way street. We all need to work a little on rolling with it, whatever our personal Achilles is. For some it's as benign as a FEW WORDS IN ALL CAPS. For others it's someone taking on a flaunty sounding title. Sometimes it's a minor name calling. Other times it's changing a price target in a seemingly sporadic nature. While we need to roll with the "minor punches", we also need to avoid making those minor punches at others. Things will come up, and it isn't always rosy in PleasantVille. But sometimes setting aside the infighting lets you get down to the actual issue. Ok, enough of all that for now. Isn't there some World Wide Developer Conference going on? And a upswing off of what is hopefully the relative low, while outpacing the market and many other tech stocks. There must be some news, even if it's just what band will be playing at WWDC this year. I still remember a couple of the developers I met at WWDC, like Aaron from Nasa right there in MountainView at 237 and 101 talking about my auto-install netbook image, while either Maroon 5 or Jimmy Eat World was playing. Ah, the things that stick in your head. Thanks everyone!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2019 21:20:02 GMT -8
I agree with what you say in general terms: The danger is always that discussions about politicians who have great power devolves into discussing issues that do not have much to do with aapl anymore and would therefore create noise and lead to useless fights that decrease the value of this board. BUT there is also the risk of muzzling valuable contributions if one becomes too sensitive about adjectives. I don't remember anyone really exploding when in the past somebody would call Obama, or Bush, or Clinton, or Reagan an "idiot", even when the label was only used to disparage, not to describe a real behavior that affects aapl. I'd like to ask moderators (and Trump supporters) on this board to look for the big picture, and not immediately jump the gun if by chance someone labels as "idiotic" some not-well-planned tweet that affects the markets and aapl. For my part it's not politics per se, nor name calling per se, it is the labeling of strident and aggressive political statements, ones sounding to me as naive certainty, when there’s already a designated place for political comments. I'm actually very familiar and comfortable with political debates. It's all a matter of accepted rules. I'm a newcomer so I'm no expert on them. But I wouldn't even have a problem if it were part of the rules to allow a more open political debate in the AAPL threads. But it all comes down to expectations. Really it isn't rules as much as having rulemaker(s) that can call them like they see them and take actions without agonizing much over it. If commenters can't handle dealing with a referee then they're not mature enough to comment or aren't serious enough about commenting. I can adapt to pretty much any rules I can understand, and I'm very willing to consider any and all assumptions, which very much include politics. The view that Trump is "a singular situation" is a dubious statement. I'm not old enough to remember Harry Truman, but he's a lot like him from what I know. I think human nature is fascinating, and I'm amazed how naive people are about it. It's like fish in water. I cut my teeth on moral philosophy, and I can assure you that plenty of sophisticated people get in real and specific ways why Trump is polarizing, regardless of their political beliefs. Victor Davis Hanson gets it. James Bowman gets it. And even I got it back when I was watching The Apprentice. Trump is not unique. You'd think his election would have at least shown the most naive that. But conspiracy theories abound. Walterwhite said: "if I started a thread, it would have links to latest trade war developments (often likely critical of trump) as i am convinced they have a much higher influence on aapl in the short-term than anything apple insider or MacDailyNews says". That may be well be true. But *if* the claim were extended further to include the idea that if it weren't for Trump we'd not have the threat of trade war I'd say that's pretty naive. His election signaled that a significant number of people had come to accept that we were in a trade war already, and that camp has expanded greatly. Love him or hate him, but there's been a sea change and there's no going back. It is hugely problematic to trade with China freely and equally, who clearly didn't enter the WTO on good faith. It's interesting how many financial and business analysts with no particular love for Trump, and I think China herself now, see the writing on the wall. It seems now hard to find informed views that still think that in 2 or 6 years things will return to normal with China. Even China doesn't think that anymore. I've said it before, but anyone who didn't think such things have always been a part of normal investment decision making isn't getting it. The whole point to to try to invest so that you have the greatest comparative chance of staying alive financially even if the worst things happen, and they will.
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