chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Jul 4, 2019 6:30:52 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by therealmercel on Jul 4, 2019 7:02:39 GMT -8
People buying Samsung copycat products are the same people who buy Bolex watches. I wouldn't even buy a Samsung Washer/Dryer set - I loathe the company that much.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 4, 2019 7:07:59 GMT -8
This may sound like I am schizophrenic but there is data indicating the top could come next week and not tomorrow. MACD histogram is still bullish and RSI at 66 still has room to run. The SPY may peak but aapl could run higher to catch up next week. Calls are higher OI then puts.
I think it will depend on three factors. How much volume we have tomorrow (25 million shares or more), where we close at the end of the day, and no bad news over the weekend. If those pan out then we could see 212 next week.
Then if the MACD turns down and we keep going downward with the RSI below 50, then we may have a sell off after earnings. The crazy part is that everyone is counting on a rate cut and the announcement is right around earnings. IF we don’t get one which I don’t think we will, then the market will sell off and take aapl with it.
Given the uncertainty, I will be in cash by earnings.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 4, 2019 7:16:00 GMT -8
I should also point out that I recently discovered another data point that helps understand in which direction we are going. MFI or Money Flow Index.
It has been going down since peaking about a week ago. So despite the stock going up, smart money is getting out. This is a big sign that we are close to a near top.
The move from 170 to 212 would be 25% which in historical terms is very normal.
So keep in mind regardless of how well or bad Apple does, these swings have been going on for 15 years.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jul 4, 2019 10:25:54 GMT -8
This may sound like I am schizophrenic but: 1. there is data indicating the top could come next week and not tomorrow.2. MACD histogram is still bullish and RSI at 66 still has room to run. 3. The SPY may peak but aapl could run higher to catch up next week. Calls are higher OI then puts. I think it will depend on three factors. 1. How much volume we have tomorrow (25 million shares or more) 2. where we close at the end of the day, and 3. no bad news over the weekend. If those pan out then we could see 212 next week. Then if the MACD turns down and we keep going downward with the RSI below 50, then we may have a sell off after earnings. The crazy part is that everyone is counting on a rate cut and the announcement is right around earnings. IF we don’t get one which I don’t think we will, then the market will sell off and take aapl with it.My apologies for formatting your post as I did, sponge, but I didn't understand most of what you posted about MACD histogram, RSI and SPY so I was hoping that formatting would make your concern easier for me to understand. I was wrong. But formatting did allow me to see how many variables you and others have to deal with when you try to anticipate what the market and AAPL will do in the near future. I must admit, it looks *exhausting* to me. OTOH, it does convince me, once again, how *easy* it is for AAPL Longs to do well with their investment in Apple, Inc. You've indicated more than once that all your AAPL investments are "play money" to you but I do hope that new members of AFB realize this and don't use your forward-looking prognostications to guide their investing. Perhaps you might consider adding a disclaimer to your signature, which now says, " Invest in Apple and give yourself an early retirement". Maybe something like: " Invest in Apple and give yourself an early retirement. Meanwhile, enjoy *reading* my posts but don't use them as a guide for investing your hard-earned money." Given the uncertainty, I will be in cash by earnings. Given the *certainty* of AAPL recovering from any pullback, as evidenced by its rebounding from several major pullbacks in share price over the last 19+ years that we've held the stock, my wife and I will *continue* to be 100% in AAPL by earnings. Happy 4th to all and cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jul 4, 2019 10:39:26 GMT -8
I should also point out that I recently discovered another data point that helps understand in which direction we are going. MFI or Money Flow Index. It has been going down since peaking about a week ago. So despite the stock going up, smart money is getting out. This is a big sign that we are close to a near top. But the *really*, *really* smart money is staying in. The move from 170 to 212 would be 25% which in historical terms is very normal. So keep in mind regardless of how well or bad Apple does, these swings have been going on for 15 years. Which is exactly why the *really*, *really* smart money is staying in.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 4, 2019 11:05:33 GMT -8
There fixed my signature..
I think it is great that I look at these factor to make much more then 7% a year.
Wonder why my posts become so personal for a few here? Instead of bringing counter argument, it turns into analysis of words and smart ass comments about what I say or do.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jul 4, 2019 11:26:56 GMT -8
There fixed my signature.. New signature looks great, sponge! I don't agree with its sentiment at all but it's apparently much more in keeping with your true feelings regarding Apple/AAPL. I think it is great that I look at these factor to make much more then 7% a year. But why not be long AAPL, have much less worry and make at least that much a year? Wonder why my posts become so personal for a few here? Instead of brining counter argument, it turns into trying analysis of words and smart ass comments about what I say or do. Why would I counter argue something which I believe is conjecture? And I doubt *anyone* on AFB dislikes you personally, sponge. I know I don't. Heck, I don't even know you. But since most of us realize how fickle the market can be, especially with AAPL, it's sometimes difficult to not do an eye-roll when you post something regarding AAPL as if it's absolutely guaranteed to happen and then post something completely different a week later. I don't care if you're reading chicken entrails to determine AAPL's future, perhaps you should consider not sounding so absolutely certain when you post your prognostications. Or not. Sorry you read my post as a personal attack on you and not your "methods" because I didn't mean it that way and will refrain from commenting about your "investing process" in the future.
|
|
|
Post by therealmercel on Jul 4, 2019 11:52:31 GMT -8
I haven't been all cash since, well, I can't remember.
It's always best (for me) to stay invested and weather the ups and downs. If I think AAPL has outrun itself, I shift more to shares and increase my cash position, which I've been doing of late. Now, we could easily see another leg up with AAPL, and if it does, I'll be rooting for it (and won't be chasing it because my core position is intact). I traded way too much last year, but having done so has put me in a position that I'll reach ATH in my portfolio if AAPL makes just another $10.
P.S. Sponge is an entertainer - that is if you enjoy the sensation of vertigo that comes with his dizzying price targets.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jul 4, 2019 11:52:50 GMT -8
For the record I am bullish on Apple long term and I think the company is awesome. But under TC it has lots of issues from quality of its products and services, to pricing, to manufacturing in a country that could pull the rug and significantly mess up your biggest cash cow.
The iPhone has made Apple a very powerful and rich company along with its investors.
But until we have another hit product, we will have limited upside. No one know when that will happen. TC keeps saying we will be blown away for years. Yes the iPHone can grow again at 20% but we will have to wait a year or 2. In the mean time one can just stay out of the stock and many are given its low institutional ownership. We had 67% at one point when the iPhone took off in 2009.
I still think we will revisit the p/e of 9-10 given that we will have a US recession and a global one as well. It seems very prudent to be in cash and just ride the waves in the mean time.
With options I can make a lot more then 20%. Still learning and risking at times, so there are losses as well. But still love every minute of trying to figure out where we are going. Losing or making numbers in some account to me is just numbers. Numbers never made anyone happy unless they turned them into experiences or products. Since I can’t spend option profits, I simply go back in with bigger amounts every time. The plan is to be in the stock by winter when we hit another RSI of 25.
It is not stressful but rather enjoyable. Made my money in the stock and will continue to do so in the future. With big swings in RSI one can easily make 20% a year even in the years that aapl is down 45% YOY.
|
|
|
Post by macster on Jul 4, 2019 14:49:58 GMT -8
There fixed my signature.. "Don't invest in Apple until Tim Cook is fired" I cannot think of a better way than to be long in Apple without much worry so I can live my life void of the daily stock price. But I agree that Timmy has changed the culture at Apple though for the worst with his political action on behalf of the company and stockholders. Namely, today when we think of Apple we think more of 'LGBT' and the connotation that comes from sexual behaviors for the purpose of pleasure instead of what we used to think.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jul 4, 2019 16:53:52 GMT -8
There fixed my signature.. "Don't invest in Apple until Tim Cook is fired" I cannot think of a better way than to be long in Apple without much worry so I can live my life void of the daily stock price. But I agree that Timmy has changed the culture at Apple though for the worst with his political action on behalf of the company and stockholders. Namely, today when we think of Apple we think more of 'LGBT' and the connotation that comes from sexual behaviors for the purpose of pleasure instead of what we used to think. Now when you say, "we", I'm going to assume you mean the royal "we" because it certainly doesn't include me or anyone else I know. That one sentence may be the most outrageously strange thing I've ever read on AFB and you've already previously posted some pretty strange things in the Dungeon. Does it occur to you at all that we may have AFB members who would place themselves, family or friends in the LGBT category and would find, as I do, your comment is both offensive and laughable at the same time? Perhaps you should talk to a mental health professional about your feelings.
|
|
|
Post by therealmercel on Jul 4, 2019 19:39:17 GMT -8
I cannot think of a better way than to be long in Apple without much worry so I can live my life void of the daily stock price. But I agree that Timmy has changed the culture at Apple though for the worst with his political action on behalf of the company and stockholders. Namely, today when we think of Apple we think more of 'LGBT' and the connotation that comes from sexual behaviors for the purpose of pleasure instead of what we used to think. Now when you say, "we", I'm going to assume you mean the royal "we" because it certainly doesn't include me or anyone else I know. That one sentence may be the most outrageously strange thing I've ever read on AFB and you've already previously posted some pretty strange things in the Dungeon. Does it occur to you at all that we may have AFB members who would place themselves in the LGBT category and would find, as I do, your comment is both offensive and laughable at the same time? Perhaps you should talk to a mental health professional about your feelings. Sadly, there are limits to what mental health professionals can accomplish...
|
|
|
Post by audiosculpture12 on Jul 4, 2019 20:20:36 GMT -8
I cannot think of a better way than to be long in Apple without much worry so I can live my life void of the daily stock price. But I agree that Timmy has changed the culture at Apple though for the worst with his political action on behalf of the company and stockholders. Namely, today when we think of Apple we think more of 'LGBT' and the connotation that comes from sexual behaviors for the purpose of pleasure instead of what we used to think. Now when you say, "we", I'm going to assume you mean the royal "we" because it certainly doesn't include me or anyone else I know. That one sentence may be the most outrageously strange thing I've ever read on AFB and you've already previously posted some pretty strange things in the Dungeon. Does it occur to you at all that we may have AFB members who would place themselves, family or friends in the LGBT category and would find, as I do, your comment is both offensive and laughable at the same time? Perhaps you should talk to a mental health professional about your feelings. Super weird and has no place on this forum.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on Jul 5, 2019 4:31:39 GMT -8
Tim Cook has achieved much in his time at Apple, for Apple, AAPL and well beyond. And, oh yeah, he’s gay...... And that’s his right and just the way he is.
|
|
|
Post by macster on Jul 5, 2019 5:24:29 GMT -8
Tim Cook has achieved much in his time at Apple, for Apple, AAPL and well beyond. And, oh yeah, he’s gay...... And that’s his right and just the way he is. Thats right Benoir. But its not his Corporation its the stockholders and it does not belong to the 1 point whatever % of the general population that consider themselves lgbt. If Tim does not want to be treated differently for being gay, then stop acting like being gay somehow makes you special. Your sexual orientation is neither an achievement nor a holiday. You have not accomplished anything simply by being attracted to one sex or another. His political (politics) action in the official capacity as CEO has embarrassed the corporation in the general public mindset. Enough... Sorry to Sponge for hijacking his signature change "Don't invest in Apple till Cook is gone"
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on Jul 5, 2019 6:14:37 GMT -8
Hold it together, and keep it on topic. We need to self-moderate here. I've tried to stay silent about board moderation for the last month since even asking people to try to control the name calling, political or otherwise, was enough to get people in a twist and have them leave. This is a great place, but we get to decide if we continue to build the community, or if we let our lack of respect to other posters tear the place down. Keep it on topic. Keep it respectful. Don't post it, or put it over in the Dungeon, if it doesn't belong in the daily thread. But I agree that Timmy has changed the culture at Apple though for the worst with his political action on behalf of the company and stockholders. I admit, I don't see this. Maybe I'm not looking at Apple with as much detail as the past. Or maybe you're reading in something that isn't there. I think Tim has done a great job of keeping his personal life separate and mostly private. I don't see what the potential issue is that you are seeing, but if you can be respectful and really thing it needs to be talked about on this board, why don't you bring it over to the Dungeon. FWIW, this thread was reported to the admin. This was the first one since 2014 I believe. Sticking with the positive, that is a great track record. Thanks everyone!
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jul 5, 2019 6:20:03 GMT -8
Hold it together, and keep it on topic. We need to self-moderate here. I've tried to stay silent about board moderation for the last month since even asking people to try to control the name calling, political or otherwise, was enough to get people in a twist and have them leave. This is a great place, but we get to decide if we continue to build the community, or if we let our lack of respect to other posters tear the place down. Keep it on topic. Keep it respectful. Don't post it, or put it over in the Dungeon, if it doesn't belong in the daily thread. But I agree that Timmy has changed the culture at Apple though for the worst with his political action on behalf of the company and stockholders. I admit, I don't see this. Maybe I'm not looking at Apple with as much detail as the past. Or maybe you're reading in something that isn't there. I think Tim has done a great job of keeping his personal life separate and mostly private. I don't see what the potential issue is that you are seeing, but if you can be respectful and really thing it needs to be talked about on this board, why don't you bring it over to the Dungeon. FWIW, this thread was reported to the admin. This was the first one since 2014 I believe. Sticking with the positive, that is a great track record. Thanks everyone!I just checked the archive of REPORTS TO THE ADMINISTRATION. I was flabbergasted to see the number of great posts by ME and JD that were reported.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2019 8:36:45 GMT -8
4aapl, I very much appreciate what you’re saying. Here’s my .02.
I hope you don’t take it personal when I say that self moderation is an idealistic pipe dream every bit as much as would be competitive basketball games without a referee. People that claim they’re going to leave if they disagree with moderation aren’t worth having as commentators. It’s juvenile. To be sure, we can all have initial reactions to such things. But as I’ve said before, people who won’t subject themselves to moderation either aren’t mature enough to comment publicly, or maybe just don’t really appreciate the benefits enough to do it. And never discount the influence of idealistic interpersonal ideologies with a strong whiff of Utopianism that turns people into mere conduits of righteous indignation and their inner child comes out. Such ideologies no doubt driving the constant complaints about “ lack of civilized discourse” and the dread of deleting posts. Why only have deleted 1 post is a badge of honor escapes me.
Self moderation is no moderation at. I don’t know this platform but a good moderation regime is simply to kick but the comment to poster and highlight the offending part so it can be modified and resent if desired. A couple of years ago it was late night and a few whiskey sours hadn’t worn off yet when I was commenting on a public platform. Next day I saw a cordial email by the mod flagging a sentence that was too cynical and personal. I thanked him for saving me the embarrassment of leaning to the personal and re-edited and resent. Not that big of a deal. Moderation protects everyone involved.
If people spent a fraction of the time figuring out how to ascertain the rules a moderators expect people to follow as they do foolishly trying to psychoanalyze those they disagree by their supposedly excellent mind reading skills they’d have no problem with moderation. If they spent any mind cycles at all on how public comments can’t be personal, and are distinctly different from private communications, no matter what anyone thinks, they’d see things differently. Is it worth it for them to comment or not and stop going on about how they’d “join the community” if only it would allow them to do whatever they want.
The same people always complaining about “civility” are the first to flip and try to ostracize people who date critique them on their sacred cows. As you’ve probably figured out, my advice is to toughen up. Everything takes practice. Taking criticism takes practice. I’ve been called every name in the book over the years. And it’s slways for the same basic reason. People want to express themsved freely withou friction. Which is to say, they want public communication to conform closely to private communication-say a dinner party-and it will never be.
If you want moderation you need someone who knows what they’re about and isn’t naive about human nature. About how conflicted the average person is and how interacting at every level takes practice. I’ve had people call me a troll who they’d never respond to again and three years later we’re still interacting frequently and intensely. I guess they learned a few things about themselves and the hopefully the topic in the process. People have to grow up in every aspect of their lives separately, the same as it ever was. People can’t see this, or interpersonal ideologies they’ve unconsciously adopted militate against seeing it, or their pride won’t allow them to accept it, but it’s true.
Until something changes as far as I can see saying “you’re an idiot” is acceptable here. That’s because the cost of ruling such nonsense unacceptable isn’t seen as great as the cost of endangering the mix all the idealistic romantic communitarian abstraction plates in the air, any or all of which some of us are enamored. So it goes.
|
|
|
Post by therealmercel on Jul 5, 2019 9:53:25 GMT -8
AAPL is green and puts are red Interest rates and trade talks are on deck, then Apple earnings later this month. The easy gains in the market have been made. It may melt up, but that doesn't get me too excited. I am kind of excited about Apple's CC coming to your wallet soon.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jul 5, 2019 10:33:10 GMT -8
Tim Cook has achieved much in his time at Apple, for Apple, AAPL and well beyond. And, oh yeah, he’s gay...... And that’s his right and just the way he is. Thats right Benoir. But its not his Corporation its the stockholders and it does not belong to the 1 point whatever % of the general population that consider themselves lgbt. If Tim does not want to be treated differently for being gay, then stop acting like being gay somehow makes you special. Sorry, macster, but the link(s) you surely meant to provide to give examples of Tim Cook's aberrant behavior, didn't show up in your post. Please repost your comment with the appropriate link(s). TIA Your sexual orientation is neither an achievement nor a holiday. You have not accomplished anything simply by being attracted to one sex or another. His political (politics) action in the official capacity as CEO has embarrassed the corporation in the general public mindset.Yeah, don't ya just hate it when a person in a position of authority *embarrasses* the people he or she represents? I know I do.
|
|