stub
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The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
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Post by stub on Jul 8, 2019 6:19:14 GMT -8
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 8, 2019 6:25:45 GMT -8
Not sure, but they're playing the market. Apple in it's quiet period right now. They can't comment. Rosenblatt also commented that the "iPhone XS is the worst selling iPhone in the history of Apple". Really? where are they getting their numbers from? They're saying the X sold less than the original iPhone that was only available on AT&T? Wow, Apple is doomed.
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Post by firestorm on Jul 8, 2019 6:26:19 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 8, 2019 6:36:07 GMT -8
Thanks for starting the daily thread this morning! AAPL looks to be nearing $200 after dipping this morning on the downgrade. The nice thing about this movement is that RSI is 55, so roughly neutral, meaning neither overbought nor oversold. Movement post-earnings depends not just on the results and guidance, but also on the lead-out. Earnings are on the fabulous day of July 30th (a couple birthdays that day, including Arnold Schwarzenegger...always thought there was a t in there), so there's a few weeks to notch up a little on expectations, notch down a little on expectations, or go flat a bit on expectations. So many possibilities! In keeping with the theme of "sometimes those darn kids need to learn from their own mistakes", we have 5 stocks millennials can't stop buyingIt's a beautiful day outside. Take a break from the computer (and a down day for AAPL) and go see it, if only for a quick walk. We've got tiling and wood splitting to do.
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Post by sponge on Jul 8, 2019 7:05:51 GMT -8
Well was lucky enough to sell my puts today and recover my losses from last three weeks. In cash now. May buy more puts in a couple of days. I think there is a good chance we could hit 190-195 before OE. The MACD needs to cross over and become bearish.
My target for ER is about 198. I agree that we are neutral given that RSI is 55.
No matter what aapl reports WS will cling on to some data point to either justify a move up or down.
His price target of 150 is very telling. Similar to mine for Dec 2019. If we are down 5% in eps prior to January earnings, then it make since given we started the year at 158.
Overall market will dictated how grow more from August to Sept. It think there will be a trade dea.
Then everyone will wait to confirm when the recession starts and the sell off will begin in earnest.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 8, 2019 7:20:05 GMT -8
Then everyone will wait to confirm when the recession starts and the sell off will begin in earnest. If enough investors are watching out for a bubbly high and a sudden decline, after 2 large declines in the past couple decades, will they instead sell off before seeing too much froth and thus limit both the upside and downside? While on a timeline basis I expect the market is much closer to the end of a cycle than the beginning, this doesn't seem like the often near-manic top of a bubble. Heck, some are hoping for a rate cut, saying things aren't that great, though often they are pretty good. I don't want to be one of those that sells everything 2-3 years early just because they think we're already at the top. That's like not going onto the sand on a beach day due to fearing getting sand out of the shoes at the end of the day. The end will come, but don't miss the whole party. When the end comes, maybe it will be more of a soft landing. A 10-15% market decline, and 20-25% for some individual stocks like AAPL. But this timeframe....this is more like a relatively even basketball game, with lots of back and forth, but no huge rout by one team or the other.
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Post by sponge on Jul 8, 2019 7:45:16 GMT -8
I think the recession will be officially confirmed July of next year. Remember we must have two negative quarters back to back. The market is forward thinking so selling the anticipated news in Nov makes sense.
Keep in mind, trying to predict a US recession is not easy. Many have been doing so for several years now.
I just look at data and listen to people who seem to know more then I. But more importantly I look at how the rest of the world is doing and where is WS buying insurance in SPY puts. Last year it was clear they saw something between Sept and Dec. I did not believe it but sure enough all those SPY puts made many millions in Dec.
So this will have less to did with iPhone and China trade deals and more to do with consumer spending, housing, and just health of Europe and Asia.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 8, 2019 9:00:50 GMT -8
Well was lucky enough to sell my puts today and recover my losses from last three weeks. In cash now. May buy more puts in a couple of days. I think there is a good chance we could hit 190-195 before OE. The MACD needs to cross over and become bearish. My target for ER is about 198. spongie! you're so funny... i used to be confused and peeved by your trading and predictions, like when you went full bear mode in january buying puts and predicting $120 by june... but now i honestly don't mind and even like it... 'about 198', recession confirmed next july (can you tell me the date and time, so i can plan accordingly?) it's comedy gold, really glad you made back the moniez lost at the roulette table betting on random daily aapl movements... can take another turn betting a bunch on red or black.
I did note a change in your signature though... on this we won't agree... but perhaps let's come back after a while and compare notes, shall we?
good luck with the weekly puts/calls or whatever you decide by lunchtime... hugs! 🤗
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 8, 2019 9:20:39 GMT -8
who are these millenials on td ameritrade... all the cool kids are on robinhood
but yeah, the list looks similar... they also love crypto; someone at school tried to peddle some bitcoin to walter jr, I told them to back the hell away from him, or i'd beat them up like those bullies. crypto is worse than meth, leads to the poorhouse faster
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Post by carbonate24 on Jul 8, 2019 9:54:34 GMT -8
Here is the analyst at Rosenblatt: "Jun Zhang – Senior Research Analyst Jun Zhang has tracked and analyzed China’s Internet, Communications and Telecom industries for over 10 years. Prior to joining Rosenblatt Securities, he established Wedge Partners' China research practice in 2008. Mr. Zhang was research director at United States Information Technology Office (USITO) from 2003-2005 and prior to that was a consultant at the research group MFC Insight in Beijing. He covers Internet, Electronics, Software, Telecommunications and Media. Mr. Zhang graduated (ABD) in Telecommunication Economics from Michigan State University's Quello Center for Telecommunications Management and Law PhD program. He earned his Master’s degree in International Economics from The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Nanjing." Nothing in his profile tells me he understands how to analyze Apple.
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Post by sponge on Jul 8, 2019 12:32:13 GMT -8
It is my theory that the sell off from 233 to 146 caught all the WS analysts by surprise. No one lowered their price targets by much and if anything brough them t right back up after January.
Rosenblatt has remained consistent and now has a little more credibility since we did drop below his price target. Further more Apple confirmed with poor sales in Q1.
So everyone on WS wants to get their money out of aapl but not at 150 but 200-215. MFI keeps going down which tells me more are getting out instead of buying up the stock. We just need two more QE results to really start the sell off.
Anyone who thinks the iPhone 11 will be a big hit is delusional. The line up last year was pretty damn good with the XR for a decent price compared to the X. But despite that we were down YOY in sales. This new iPhone in Sept will not do the job that the XR and the XS could not do.
Not only do I expect Apple to lower the prices here in the US beyond just monthly plans with trade ins, but we should see a new SE come in Spring in an attempt to boost sales. Sales me recover a little but margins will take a big hit It will be too little too late. WS does not like margins going down. Please see what they did to the stock in 2012 when the iPad Mini came out.
Also when we have a downgrade from a small firm no one really pay attention to, it is usually a precursor to bigger downgrades or other negative news. There was a ton of action in the July 185 puts and August 180 puts. Will keep a close eye on those Puts to see by how much OI goes up.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jul 8, 2019 14:17:05 GMT -8
"Anyone who thinks the iPhone 11 will be a big hit is delusional. "
the same has been said about, pretty much, every iteration of iPhone there was. and yet it will probably generate more profit that any other phone on the market... so that would make it a big hit... no?
I'm confidant that Apple knows a thing or two about marketing, forecasting, product design etc.
The X notch, 6 antenna bands, protruding camera, lack of wrap around screens, lack of keyboard, walled garden, lack of SD slot, removing the fingerprint scanner, removing the headphone jack, changing from 30 pin to lightning... and everything else.... were all going to kill sales.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jul 8, 2019 16:07:44 GMT -8
...and whilst it may not be a 'big hit' in the the way that, say, the 6 was, it will still grow the cash pile.
I think the 'sky is falling' narrative that is applied to Apple and AAPL is, and has been, shortsighted. It's a perverse narative because it ignores the longterm story.
Just consider Air pods. Apparently Apple sold 35m of them in 2018. At $150 that equals $5.3B.... that's the same revenue that was generated for all of Apple in 2001.... just from some little bits of white plastic.
Or consider iPods. Huge hit and the centre of attention for years at Apple. Then they strategically killed it.... and Apple/AAPL moved from strength to strength.
And consider how many active macs and iDevices there are worldwide and the services that are available to them....
Apple does actually undertake R+D too -I don't think they are sitting around hoping that the iPhone is sole key to their future.
And whilst the price will go up and down buy and hold has been an undisputed winning strategy (ask Lucky) - especially when AAPL holds a sensible/low multiple (P/E 17)
There are no real storm clouds on the horizon as far as I can see.
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Post by sponge on Jul 8, 2019 16:14:19 GMT -8
"Anyone who thinks the iPhone 11 will be a big hit is delusional. " the same has been said about, pretty much, every iteration of iPhone there was. and yet it will probably generate more profit that any other phone on the market... so that would make it a big hit... no? I'm confidant that Apple knows a thing or two about marketing, forecasting, product design etc. The X notch, 6 antenna bands, protruding camera, lack of wrap around screens, lack of keyboard, walled garden, lack of SD slot, removing the fingerprint scanner, removing the headphone jack, changing from 30 pin to lightning... and everything else.... were all going to kill sales. Normally I would agree with you 100%. Yes every iPhone has been a hit, however since the last time we got real numbers, sales are down, real income is down, and eps is down. So unless Apple reverses itself and starts to give us iPhone numbers, we can no longer assume this new update will beat last years. We know that last year did not beat the year before. However, we will have enough data that will confirm that many will not update like in the past. Apple decided to charge so much that it is coming back to bite them. Case and point. My dad has a 5C. His first and only iPHone. He got it thru ATT for $.99. He has had for 5 years and now has some issues. He was ready to pull the trigger on an iPhone 7 and when he saw the $378 out the door price after use of gift cards and trade in, he passed on upgrading. He will wait, since he wants a refurbished model for around $200. Unlike computers where most are used to paying at least $1500 for a new one every 7 years, most consumers no longer believe it is worth paying $900 every two years for a new iPhone. I know you can trade your old one and get it cheaper. So most will hang on for as long as possible. This is during a very good economy by the way. Apple makes great products that last a long time. For me personally, I could afford the XS. I am very impressed with the camera by the way. But chose not to get it because there is not enough reason to upgrade from my iPhone 8. I still want a smaller form factor and a new brand new look. The 8 and X are old looks in my book. Face ID is great and I love it on my iPad Pro, but I can live very comfortably with the touch ID for at least three more years. I want Apple to improve the iPhone so much, that I just have to upgrade. I just don't see it given the present limitations in technology.
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Post by sponge on Jul 8, 2019 16:19:14 GMT -8
There are three gaps I am watching.
194, 190, and 185. Anything below that then we are in major correction territory.
I do think there is still a good chance we could hit 224 by Sept 15.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 8, 2019 16:56:52 GMT -8
Of course, after the lowest of PED's analysts puts a sell on AAPL, JP Morgan raises it's target price. You won't hear as much about that though. Bad news gets the eyeballs.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jul 8, 2019 17:42:19 GMT -8
Here is the analyst at Rosenblatt: "Jun Zhang – Senior Research Analyst Jun Zhang has tracked and analyzed China’s Internet, Communications and Telecom industries for over 10 years. Prior to joining Rosenblatt Securities, he established Wedge Partners' China research practice in 2008. Mr. Zhang was research director at United States Information Technology Office (USITO) from 2003-2005 and prior to that was a consultant at the research group MFC Insight in Beijing. He covers Internet, Electronics, Software, Telecommunications and Media. Mr. Zhang graduated (ABD) in Telecommunication Economics from Michigan State University's Quello Center for Telecommunications Management and Law PhD program. He earned his Master’s degree in International Economics from The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Nanjing." Nothing in his profile tells me he understands how to analyze Apple. Mr. Zhang graduated (ABD) "... All But Dissertation does not equal graduated. He deserves some credit for getting that far, but calling ABD a degree is like saying you went to Harvard because you took a tour there. Still he seems more qualified than Ewan Spence. Maybe he should put that on his resume.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jul 8, 2019 17:46:02 GMT -8
There are three gaps I am watching. 194, 190, and 185. Anything below that then we are in major correction territory. I do think there is still a good chance we could hit 224 by Sept 15. I am putting this as gently as I know how...Is the 224 before or after the drop to 120?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 8, 2019 18:38:32 GMT -8
Ya know, I think with it being years since the carrier subsidy inspired 2 year upgrade cycle, I think you need to realize that there now is a plethora of iPhone upgrade cycles. Those that upgrade quickly may be moved by the latest look or feature, but they also might just want the latest affordable luxury, a whole lot less than just about any other luxury out there. OTOH, there are others that might be waiting for a feature or bigger jump, and there are those that wait for something not to work well enough. And then the broken/lost/stolen crowd, though I am constantly amazed at how many smart phones, from any vendor, that I see with cracked or smashed glass.
I'll likely be upgrading this year, mainly just for the camera. With my wife and I now having different versions, we can offset our upgrade cycles and thus have one of our cameras be the latest and greatest, or close to it.
Some people feel 5G will be a thing, and it may very well be for some. We're remote enough that I doubt our towers will on the cutting edge, and I don't really have times where cell speed slows things down, unless out on a back road or trail, like headed down 395.
Offhand, I wouldn't be surprised if there were as many people buying or delaying a purchase due to style as there are doing the same for a feature.
But by and large, I also wouldn't be surprised if 80% of upgraders don't care so much, and since most of them want to stay with an iPhone, that there won't as much of a dip due to 5G not yet being ready as some worry.
That doesn't sell headlines, nor make a bet on analyzing a stock that may get an analyst notoriety, but such is life.
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Post by zzmac on Jul 8, 2019 19:09:15 GMT -8
"Anyone who thinks the iPhone 11 will be a big hit is delusional. " the same has been said about, pretty much, every iteration of iPhone there was. and yet it will probably generate more profit that any other phone on the market... so that would make it a big hit... no? I'm confidant that Apple knows a thing or two about marketing, forecasting, product design etc. The X notch, 6 antenna bands, protruding camera, lack of wrap around screens, lack of keyboard, walled garden, lack of SD slot, removing the fingerprint scanner, removing the headphone jack, changing from 30 pin to lightning... and everything else.... were all going to kill sales. Normally I would agree with you 100%. Yes every iPhone has been a hit, however since the last time we got real numbers, sales are down, real income is down, and eps is down. So unless Apple reverses itself and starts to give us iPhone numbers, we can no longer assume this new update will beat last years. We know that last year did not beat the year before. However, we will have enough data that will confirm that many will not update like in the past. Apple decided to charge so much that it is coming back to bite them. Case and point. My dad has a 5C. His first and only iPHone. He got it thru ATT for $.99. He has had for 5 years and now has some issues. He was ready to pull the trigger on an iPhone 7 and when he saw the $378 out the door price after use of gift cards and trade in, he passed on upgrading. He will wait, since he wants a refurbished model for around $200. Unlike computers where most are used to paying at least $1500 for a new one every 7 years, most consumers no longer believe it is worth paying $900 every two years for a new iPhone. I know you can trade your old one and get it cheaper. So most will hang on for as long as possible. This is during a very good economy by the way. Apple makes great products that last a long time. For me personally, I could afford the XS. I am very impressed with the camera by the way. But chose not to get it because there is not enough reason to upgrade from my iPhone 8. I still want a smaller form factor and a new brand new look. The 8 and X are old looks in my book. Face ID is great and I love it on my iPad Pro, but I can live very comfortably with the touch ID for at least three more years. I want Apple to improve the iPhone so much, that I just have to upgrade. I just don't see it given the present limitations in technology. Sponge, if you invested more strategically in Apple instead of foolishly day trading, you’d have the coin to upgrade from your iPhone 2 and you could buy the rest of your family new iPhone 7s. Smarten up!
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Post by sponge on Jul 8, 2019 19:16:45 GMT -8
There are three gaps I am watching. 194, 190, and 185. Anything below that then we are in major correction territory. I do think there is still a good chance we could hit 224 by Sept 15. I am being as gently as I know how...Is the 224 before or after the drop to 120? Before 120 has now been moved to May 2020. There is a small chance we could see it in Dec however We will know more in Oct
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2019 20:13:23 GMT -8
5g is so overhyped it’s nuts. Desperation by companies desperate for profits. Cell networks and WiFi are continuously evolving. I think those pushing the 5g will be revolutionary message think that cell networks will replace WiFi but that’s very naive. They compete and likely will for the foreseeable future. There are proposals to anchor unlicensed spectrum WiFi in licensed spectrum WiFi. I think that would be a massive political problem. Can you imagine handing control to the carriers for your WiFi? Talk about monopolization. I can’t see anyone being that naive and stupid as to let that happen.
And there will be 5g like hybrids. There’s a company called starry that has purchased licensed spectrum and is running gear that clocks up WiFi running mmwave. 5g like but not 5g. Broadband over wifi 6. Running in major metropolitan areas. What 5g companies call small cells are quite similar to wireless access points. Since 5g doesn’t penetrate buildings well you can install digital antenna systems to get the cell signal inside. But smartphones switch between WiFi and cell networks so why not just use WiFi inside for data? The idea that the entire WiFi industry is going to be disrupted by 5g is pretty naive. And the idea that massive profits are going to flow to 5g vendors is pretty naive as well. 5g is simply the next iteration of cellular data. WiFi 6 is the next iteration of WiFi. This is all evolutionary and complementary.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 8, 2019 20:48:35 GMT -8
I went to the considerable trouble of charting Sponge’s price targets over the last month. You’re welcome.
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Post by silkstone on Jul 9, 2019 1:58:53 GMT -8
I went to the considerable trouble of charting Sponge’s price targets over the last month. You’re welcome. It looks like he’s got them all covered.
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