chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 22, 2019 5:55:12 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jul 22, 2019 6:32:44 GMT -8
Well one big upgrade and debt ceiling deal changed the picture from Friday. This is how WS can change the narrative and keep everyone in a bit longer.
Since we did not go below the all important 200 number, I think chance of a big correction post earnings have diminished considerably. However a move to 224 has dropped as well. We need the big sling shot to move us higher.
So now my price target for Sept is about 210-215.
I don’t agree with the MS analysis at all. It is based on perceived sentiment and not FA. As usual WS is moving from assessing the stock on earnings but rather future potential. For Apple future potential is very good, but in the next 24 months it is not. Economic forces here in the US and globally will impact it much more then usual and given its recent pricing of the iPhone it will be even more impacted.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 22, 2019 7:32:10 GMT -8
We need the big sling shot to move us higher.
here you go spongie.... to da mooooon!
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 22, 2019 11:25:56 GMT -8
Sold a bunch of my Sept. 2020 options - don't see much upside in the near term. Katy's analysis is solid - inline with expectations (and my own). Sell the rips and buy the dips. AAPL may be peaking here in the short term. I will hold shares and what's left of my Sept. 2020s to ride AAPL higher if she does. My portfolio today is 95% of where it was last fall when AAPL was $235.
Cheers to AAPL longs.
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ems
Member
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Post by ems on Jul 22, 2019 12:55:29 GMT -8
pretty solid close today. Will be interesting to see if it sells off after earnings.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 22, 2019 16:18:40 GMT -8
Historical, sequential decline from Q2 to Q3 is ~9M handsets. Katy is modeling ~7M. Does she know something we don’t? Not much room for error.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 22, 2019 18:01:24 GMT -8
Sold a bunch of my Sept. 2020 options - don't see much upside in the near term. Katy's analysis is solid - inline with expectations (and my own). Sell the rips and buy the dips. AAPL may be peaking here in the short term. I will hold shares and what's left of my Sept. 2020s to ride AAPL higher if she does. My portfolio today is 95% of where it was last fall when AAPL was $235. Cheers to AAPL longs.
congrats... bird in hand is better than two in the bush and all that...
my portfolio is 110% what it was in early October at AAPL ATH as i bought the january dip aggressively... 🙏 (namaste, january bear raid mofos!)
i was getting ready to sell the rip after april 30th earnings call as AAPL ripped to $210, touching $215 i believe... $220 would have been my exit... then trump shit all over that idea 💩 trade wars galore in early may, so i missed the top... added just a bit more at $175 in early june though.
i've said this before, but i honestly believe AAPL would be near ATHs currently if there was a trump-china deal in early may as had been widely expected.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jul 22, 2019 18:05:02 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 22, 2019 19:56:48 GMT -8
pretty solid close today. Will be interesting to see if it sells off after earnings. Nope ...carry on, AAPL!
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Post by sponge on Jul 22, 2019 22:33:42 GMT -8
Historical, sequential decline from Q2 to Q3 is ~9M handsets. Katy is modeling ~7M. Does she know something we don’t? Not much room for error. Not only will the numbers be soft, but ASP and margins will be down. The CHIRP data shows the XR as capturing 48% of sales. Similar amount last year for the 8+ and X.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 23, 2019 15:15:55 GMT -8
Of course, Apple GUIDED a sequential decline in iPhones - the $64,000 question is will there be a 2-3M improvement in the historical iPhone decline from FQ2 to FQ3. They need to be in order for Apple to report at the midpoint of its FQ3 guidance, or $53.5B. In other words, if iPhones decline from 9-10M iPhones from March to June quarter, Apple will report near the bottom of its guidance range.
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