chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 29, 2019 5:20:25 GMT -8
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Post by aaplcrazie on Jul 29, 2019 6:49:07 GMT -8
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ems
Member
Posts: 97
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Post by ems on Jul 29, 2019 7:10:20 GMT -8
eSIM = very handy.
Nice mild upside on AAPL this a.m. when all the other usual FAANG suspects are in the red...
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 29, 2019 7:32:10 GMT -8
I guess I should have trimmed today I have enough to enjoy any rocket tomorrow. If not, I have cash to BTD. Win-win either way. Good luck to AAPL longs.
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Post by sponge on Jul 29, 2019 7:49:37 GMT -8
Someone just bought $1.2 million worth of 185 puts for this week.
We are setting up as if we go up in the morning of 31st and then crash in the afternoon
Exciting times.
Since SPY and QQQ were red I went ahead and bought a few 195 puts. Will buy more if the SPY really corrects tomorrow
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 29, 2019 7:55:23 GMT -8
This contra-Market action certainly has me wondering if some better-than-expected results for tomorrow have leaked.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jul 29, 2019 8:06:01 GMT -8
basically we're where we were before the trade war went into high gear- the fact talks are resuming this week with China- plus earnings could mean for a wild ride. I'm more likely thinking the bet is on China - vs. a blowout number. But if we do surprise to the upside on earnings and get a deal or at least positive progress w/China that would be a perfect storm for a break to the upside. and ATH by year's end
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 29, 2019 8:09:25 GMT -8
i promised a small 'wheee' at $210 (and a bigger WHEEE with more conviction at ATH)
so...
it's a very cautious, preliminary 'wheee' with no conviction... since it all could be taken away as soon as tomorrow
this market has not been kind to great earnings... look what it's done to fb and amzn
cheers to the longs!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 29, 2019 8:11:28 GMT -8
basically we're where we were before the trade war went into high gear- the fact talks are resuming this week with China- plus earnings could mean for a wild ride. I'm more likely thinking the bet is on China - vs. a blowout number. But if we do surprise to the upside on earnings and get a deal or at least positive progress w/China that would be a perfect storm for a break to the upside. and ATH by year's end
right, $211.75 close after earnings (having traded as high as $215) right before the trump tweet that start it all...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,630
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 29, 2019 8:35:10 GMT -8
Hi $210. Good to see you again. It's been too long.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,630
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 29, 2019 9:52:15 GMT -8
When Since84 took a break, he suggested we stay on top of these things. Preferably with a simple occasional reminder, but going further when needed. I think what I just posted in Friday's thread sums it up nicely: (FWIW, politics directly related to Apple has always been allowed, but OT politics has been frowned on. While we may let it run at times, that doesn't make it right. History shows that we'll likely have to follow this better in the lead up to major elections, unless we happen to be having such a euphoric top that no one cares to rant. My vote is for that!)
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Post by longsince98 on Jul 29, 2019 10:38:29 GMT -8
Following up on my own question from last week’s thread (pasted below): “Meanwhile, Apple tends to outperform in the month of August. Over the past 10 years, the FAANG stock has averaged an August gain of 4.45%, and has ended the month higher 70% of the time -- the best blue chip on the list.” finance.yahoo.com/news/3-reasons-watch-apple-week-181639237.htmlMy guess would be a sale. Either pick up a lot of cheap shares or collect some nice premium. For those of you who are bearish post earnings, I would really appreciate if you can lay out some of your logic. The reason I ask is because in all the years I’ve been in Apple, there usually is a run up till the iPhone announcement (from what I recall). So I always view this period as the best time to invest I would love to hear the opposing view points. Thanks
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Post by sponge on Jul 29, 2019 11:59:34 GMT -8
Here is one scenario that could play out. We look to be setting up like last quarter. We keep going up and hitting 216 on Wed. Then we drop down in the mid 205 range. don’t think those 185 and 195 puts are saying much right now given the high volume in calls as well for 215. We should confirm tomorrow morning to see what Open Interest ends up. It could drop for both Put targets and go up for the 215 Call.
For August OE we could see 188, which then give us a month to recover to iPhone release in mid Sept where we re visit 216.
I chickened out on my 195 puts and sold out. Will stay cash after all.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 29, 2019 12:08:52 GMT -8
( FWIW, politics directly related to Apple has always been allowed, but OT politics has been frowned on. While we may let it run at times, that doesn't make it right. History shows that we'll likely have to follow this better in the lead up to major elections, unless we happen to be having such a euphoric top that no one cares to rant. My vote is for that!)
thanks 4aapl, this makes sense (there was that one time with lstream, but as you've already pointed out before, it was an exception once in several years)...
there was a flare-up on friday because trump directly meddled with apple/aapl by tweeting about them, and because one member decided to call another member's post about this 'most ridiculous'...
it's all basically fine, but to the (few) vocal trump supporters here: 1. don't be surprised when the rest of us call him out (or even call him names) particularly on days when he meddles with apple... 2. you won't change anyone's opinion of trump... i'd say it's pointless to respond with multi-paragraph tirades on how trump is making america great 3. if you decide to post after all and 'teach' us how great trump is, then expect us to respond, perhaps words you don't appreciate about your Dear Leader
cheers to the longs!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 29, 2019 12:11:51 GMT -8
I chickened out on my 195 puts and sold out. Will stay cash after all.
good CALL, spongie... badum-tss, options pun!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,630
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 29, 2019 12:56:47 GMT -8
thanks 4aapl, this makes sense (there was that one time with lstream, but as you've already pointed out before, it was an exception once in several years)... there was a flare-up on friday because trump directly meddled with apple/aapl by tweeting about them
Just because something might be done differently now doesn't mean it would be done differently if redone. If you throw insults, political or otherwise, especially if you don't respect those who keep this place running, your posts and privileges may be revoked. It might be moved to a visible or non-visible location instead of being flatly deleted, but that doesn't matter much. As far as the tariff on the Mac Pro, it really doesn't much matter in the long term. It's a short term thing. And while it might affect Apple more now and thus my investment in AAPL, I'm not sure I'd want Apple products excluded. Why should some products or companies have their products excluded from a tariff, while others are hit by it? I guess I like rules that are fair, or at least levelly applied. While not best for Apple's or my personal bottom line in the short term, I'm just not so sure that Apple products should be skipped if the line of action that has been chosen to be taken is to use tariffs. And that's no matter the party or person tossing them about. It might suck, but sometimes things do.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jul 29, 2019 15:36:26 GMT -8
thanks 4aapl, this makes sense (there was that one time with lstream, but as you've already pointed out before, it was an exception once in several years)... there was a flare-up on friday because trump directly meddled with apple/aapl by tweeting about them
Just because something might be done differently now doesn't mean it would be done differently if redone. If you throw insults, political or otherwise, especially if you don't respect those who keep this place running, your posts and privileges may be revoked. It might be moved to a visible or non-visible location instead of being flatly deleted, but that doesn't matter much. As far as the tariff on the Mac Pro, it really doesn't much matter in the long term. It's a short term thing. And while it might affect Apple more now and thus my investment in AAPL, I'm not sure I'd want Apple products excluded. Why should some products or companies have their products excluded from a tariff, while others are hit by it? I guess I like rules that are fair, or at least levelly applied. While not best for Apple's or my personal bottom line in the short term, I'm just not so sure that Apple products should be skipped if the line of action that has been chosen to be taken is to use tariffs. And that's no matter the party or person tossing them about. It might suck, but sometimes things do. Thank you, well said.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 29, 2019 16:00:32 GMT -8
thanks 4aapl, this makes sense (there was that one time with lstream, but as you've already pointed out before, it was an exception once in several years)...
there was a flare-up on friday because trump directly meddled with apple/aapl by tweeting about them, and because one member decided to call another member's post about this 'most ridiculous'...
it's all basically fine, but to the (few) vocal trump supporters here: 1. don't be surprised when the rest of us call him out (or even call him names) particularly on days when he meddles with apple... 2. you won't change anyone's opinion of trump... i'd say it's pointless to respond with multi-paragraph tirades on how trump is making america great 3. if you decide to post after all and 'teach' us how great trump is, then expect us to respond, perhaps words you don't appreciate about your Dear Leader
cheers to the longs!
I approve this message
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 29, 2019 16:04:31 GMT -8
Here is one scenario that could play out. We look to be setting up like last quarter. We keep going up and hitting 216 on Wed. Then we drop down in the mid 205 range. don’t think those 185 and 195 puts are saying much right now given the high volume in calls as well for 215. We should confirm tomorrow morning to see what Open Interest ends up. It could drop for both Put targets and go up for the 215 Call. For August OE we could see 188, which then give us a month to recover to iPhone release in mid Sept where we re visit 216. I chickened out on my 195 puts and sold out. Will stay cash after all. This makes me nervous, as I’m 80% cash. Why 80% cash? Because I’m not expecting #’s tomorrow that move AAPL higher.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 31, 2019 18:24:19 GMT -8
thanks 4aapl, this makes sense (there was that one time with lstream, but as you've already pointed out before, it was an exception once in several years)...
there was a flare-up on friday because trump directly meddled with apple/aapl by tweeting about them, and because one member decided to call another member's post about this 'most ridiculous'...
it's all basically fine, but to the (few) vocal trump supporters here: 1. don't be surprised when the rest of us call him out (or even call him names) particularly on days when he meddles with apple... 2. you won't change anyone's opinion of trump... i'd say it's pointless to respond with multi-paragraph tirades on how trump is making america great 3. if you decide to post after all and 'teach' us how great trump is, then expect us to respond, perhaps words you don't appreciate about your Dear Leader I've been amazed at the expressions of stridency towards even figures in the Apple world, from the analysts Gruber (an irrelevant analyst and a pervert) and Cybart ("full of shit" and duplicitous), and even Steve Jobs (a "moron"). That's an average week here, each expression by a different person, and no-one but yours truly even bothered to defend them over either nonsensical or unsubstantiated claims. I can't speak for others, but I don't think tone and stridency has nearly as much to do about politics as you prefer to believe.
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