4aapl
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Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 30, 2019 5:12:24 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jul 30, 2019 5:44:53 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jul 30, 2019 6:25:06 GMT -8
Well OI for those 185 and 195 puts went down while OI for the 215 call went up.
So I think we go up and possible end flat if not up 1% with decent guidance.
We could go down 4% with bad guidance and keep going down thru August.
What caught my attention is the SPY 280 Puts for August. Those OI contracts have steadily gone up and we are at 162K
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Jul 30, 2019 6:42:50 GMT -8
Could this be an indication that the Feds are not going to lower interest rates? Does the market look at this as a positive? When does good news become bad news? Inquiring minds want to know. 🤔
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Post by sponge on Jul 30, 2019 6:54:58 GMT -8
I have always had the view that China could hurt the market by simply going after Apple. If they take Apple down the whole market goes with it.
They can do enough damage that if the market goes down enough it will start a recession sooner rather then later.
Trump is screaming that the rates won’t be cut enough and that China is waiting for a deal after the election. This is code for he anticipates a market correction and wants to blame it on the FED.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 6:59:46 GMT -8
Well OI for those 185 and 195 puts went down while OI for the 215 call went up. So I think we go up and possible end flat if not up 1% with decent guidance. We could go down 4% with bad guidance and keep going down thru August. What caught my attention is the SPY 280 Puts for August. Those OI contracts have steadily gone up and we are at 162K The tail does not wag the dog here on earnings day. OI has close-to-zero impact on AAPL this week.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 7:01:19 GMT -8
Could this be an indication that the Feds are not going to lower interest rates? Does the market look at this as a positive? When does good news become bad news? Inquiring minds want to know. 🤔 There was only a 25 basis point rate reduction, so the market reaction may be muted if the Fed stalls on it, based on good economic indicators.
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Post by sponge on Jul 30, 2019 7:07:22 GMT -8
Let’s say we do go up 4%. When we do RSI should jump to about 78. That is considered over bought.
Let’s say we go down with the market and hit 180 by August OE. RSI would drop to 29 and that would be considered over sold.
Just pointing out that TA reflects investor sentiment which reflects FA. They all mirror each other.
AT RSI of 58 right now we are slightly bullish with room to run up. The SPY is even more bullish but we are at ATH.I just think that Apple will follow the market in the next 2 months. Roles will switch in the fall.
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Post by sponge on Jul 30, 2019 7:09:12 GMT -8
Well OI for those 185 and 195 puts went down while OI for the 215 call went up. So I think we go up and possible end flat if not up 1% with decent guidance. We could go down 4% with bad guidance and keep going down thru August. What caught my attention is the SPY 280 Puts for August. Those OI contracts have steadily gone up and we are at 162K The tail does not wag the dog here on earnings day. OI has close-to-zero impact on AAPL this week. I agree. Don’t thinks options dictated where Apple will go but rather where smart money thinks it is going. The 210 call activity for this week, indicates that Apple will top at about 218 tomorrow.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 7:25:23 GMT -8
The tail does not wag the dog here on earnings day. OI has close-to-zero impact on AAPL this week. I agree. Don’t thinks options dictated where Apple will go but rather where smart money thinks it is going. The 210 call activity for this week, indicates that Apple will top at about 218 tomorrow. The $218 sounds like a prediction, but hey, I don't play weekly options so don't care. Sept. guide consensus is $61B Rev. and that's where my focus belongs.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 7:27:17 GMT -8
Let’s say we do go up 4%. When we do RSI should jump to about 78. That is considered over bought. Let’s say we go down with the market and hit 180 by August OE. RSI would drop to 29 and that would be considered over sold. Just pointing out that TA reflects investor sentiment which reflects FA. They all mirror each other. AT RSI of 58 right now we are slightly bullish with room to run up. The SPY is even more bullish but we are at ATH.I just think that Apple will follow the market in the next 2 months. Roles will switch in the fall. Why not just go with stock price, Sponge. In other words, stock is overbought at $218 and oversold at $180. No need to get fancy. Remember the KISS principle.
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Post by sponge on Jul 30, 2019 7:40:22 GMT -8
Let’s say we do go up 4%. When we do RSI should jump to about 78. That is considered over bought. Let’s say we go down with the market and hit 180 by August OE. RSI would drop to 29 and that would be considered over sold. Just pointing out that TA reflects investor sentiment which reflects FA. They all mirror each other. AT RSI of 58 right now we are slightly bullish with room to run up. The SPY is even more bullish but we are at ATH.I just think that Apple will follow the market in the next 2 months. Roles will switch in the fall. Why not just go with stock price, Sponge. In other words, stock is overbought at $218 and oversold at $180. No need to get fancy. Remember the KISS principle. True, however there are those who think we will see ATH this winter. That would mean 240. RSI does not reflect that. Being overbought at 218 means we are going down from there. There is one exception. Last year RSI was going down all of Sept while the stock was going up. So we could see a correction with a strong bounce to 224 by end of Sept. We did move 22% from the lows of 170 in May. Can we do it again? I noticed we have 3 to 4 opportunities of massive moves every year. When those happen and why, it does not matter. Just look at TA and follow along.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jul 30, 2019 9:05:39 GMT -8
I am not particularly enamored of speaking to my devices, but for those who are, AppleWorld.Today has some usage stats for HomePod and Echo. Interestingly... ”Only 69% of people use their digital assistant at least once a day, according to Clutch. Nearly one-third of people (31%) don't use their digital assistant frequently or at all.” ...so it remains to be seen whether folks will decide if this a good investment. Cult of Mac has New Shot on iPhone ads go behind the scenes with your favorite musicians.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 30, 2019 9:37:53 GMT -8
I can’t get the rest of the family to go in on the smart speaker. Wife doesn’t trust them and frankly I have trouble dismissing her concerns. Always on listening, sending info to the cloud when it wants to. Still a little too big brother for me.
Eric in Austin
Here’s to hoping for a great earnings call.
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 30, 2019 9:40:06 GMT -8
I’m still stuck using about 20% of my tech tools potential anyway. Still takes me a week to reprogram the time on the microwave after daylight savings.
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Post by sponge on Jul 30, 2019 11:19:45 GMT -8
The SPY looks like it wants to close flat tomorrow.
My prediction is that aapl will close at 211.50 tomorrow.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jul 30, 2019 11:42:20 GMT -8
The SPY looks like it wants to close flat tomorrow. My prediction is that aapl will close at 211.50 tomorrow.
not specific enough! if it closes 211.49 i'm holding you accountable for the penny...
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Post by sponge on Jul 30, 2019 11:52:27 GMT -8
The SPY looks like it wants to close flat tomorrow. My prediction is that aapl will close at 211.50 tomorrow. not specific enough! if it closes 211.49 i'm holding you accountable for the penny... I should give me self more wiggle room, 210.50-211.49😂
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 30, 2019 11:53:07 GMT -8
The SPY looks like it wants to close flat tomorrow. My prediction is that aapl will close at 211.50 tomorrow. Such precision attempts when earnings and guidance are about to come out seems even more "taking a shot in the dark" than your normal guesstimates. BTW, for those that don't know, RSI is normally only looking at 14 days. So hitting 214 tomorrow, 214 in a week, or 214 in a month gives drastically different RSI levels. Basically it's a "too far too fast" gauge, whereas moving along steadily, up or down, doesn't matter as much. 2.5 hours of details on trusts this morning. I'm ready for some excitement with a blow-out quarter and guidance, though really will be almost as happy with the much more likely "slightly better than expected results and guidance".
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Post by longsince98 on Jul 30, 2019 12:09:08 GMT -8
The SPY looks like it wants to close flat tomorrow. My prediction is that aapl will close at 211.50 tomorrow. Such precision attempts when earnings and guidance are about to come out seems even more "taking a shot in the dark" than your normal guesstimates. BTW, for those that don't know, RSI is normally only looking at 14 days. So hitting 214 tomorrow, 214 in a week, or 214 in a month gives drastically different RSI levels. Basically it's a "too far too fast" gauge, whereas moving along steadily, up or down, doesn't matter as much. 2.5 hours of details on trusts this morning. I'm ready for some excitement with a blow-out quarter and guidance, though really will be almost as happy with the much more likely "slightly better than expected results and guidance". Thank you for that insight about the validity of RSI’s. My concern about when speculators state things so factually is that it misleads the many who follow this board, who aren’t familiar with various parties’ track records. I believe it can genuinely influence decisions for some, which is concerning. (not me since I’m long for 20 years:)
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 12:09:47 GMT -8
Apple will respond to EARNINGS & GUIDANCE. Not SPY, not RSI, not any astrological forecast...
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 30, 2019 12:13:52 GMT -8
My guess wish: Rev = 55 B Eps = 2.4 on strong buyback Guidance: 63 B Boom! Stock is at 225
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jul 30, 2019 12:14:42 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Jul 30, 2019 12:17:39 GMT -8
It's been rare but there have been times when AAPL has remained almost flat AH following earning release.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 12:17:44 GMT -8
My guess wish: Rev = 55 B Eps = 2.4 on strong buyback Guidance: 63 B Boom! Stock is at 225 Unlikely but possible! If the replacement cycle is strong, we may be underestimating FQ4. Currently, with 1B iPhones in the wild, 200M iPhones would sell each year (assuming each iPhone is replaced every 5 years). Currently, WS is estimating *only* 186M for FY 2019. So, yes, there's possible upside to FQ4. June quarter was a strong guide because Apple picked up 2M iPhones in sequential changes from March to June. Has Apple reached a floor in quarterly iPhones sold? Mmmmmm
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 30, 2019 12:26:11 GMT -8
Such precision attempts when earnings and guidance are about to come out seems even more "taking a shot in the dark" than your normal guesstimates. BTW, for those that don't know, RSI is normally only looking at 14 days. So hitting 214 tomorrow, 214 in a week, or 214 in a month gives drastically different RSI levels. Basically it's a "too far too fast" gauge, whereas moving along steadily, up or down, doesn't matter as much. 2.5 hours of details on trusts this morning. I'm ready for some excitement with a blow-out quarter and guidance, though really will be almost as happy with the much more likely "slightly better than expected results and guidance". Thank you for that insight about the validity of RSI’s. My concern about when speculators state things so factually is that it misleads the many who follow this board, who aren’t familiar with various parties’ track records. I believe it can genuinely influence decisions for some, which is concerning. (not me since I’m long for 20 years:) I still think RSI is a valid thing to look at. It's the only TA I look at, and while it doesn't work every time for every thing, given AAPL's great record it has given great buying opportunities (when down below 35), which I normally don't do anything about since I am also a long term holder of the stock. FWIW, when writing down AAPL quotes over the past 11 month it looks like I have generally written down the RSI too. The end is near....on the wait until earnings. BTW, PED's earnings smackdown is here, though with less entries than normal. And a comment says Braeburn Group is shutting it's doors tomorrow, not to be confused with Braeburn Investments or whatever Apple's subsidiary is.
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 12:28:42 GMT -8
I'm mostly cash but have enough to root for AAPL to rocket. If not, I have a BTFD opportunity.
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Post by elmar on Jul 30, 2019 12:31:44 GMT -8
AH about 213, the Numbers Must be good
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Post by therealmercel on Jul 30, 2019 12:31:53 GMT -8
$53.8B $2.18 EPS
61-64B Guide
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 30, 2019 12:32:06 GMT -8
$215, good to see you again, if only for an instant.
Wow, blipping around between $212 and $215.10
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