chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2019 5:38:16 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 2, 2019 6:15:16 GMT -8
This board is what we make it...even if sometimes things get a bit chaotic. Agreed. I don't mind the political disagreements one bit though I do wish folks would refrain from lobbing the personal insults. Oh, I mind it. This isn't the place for non-AAPL political discussion. It divides people, people that would otherwise be contributing and helping each other out, around investing in Apple. But, it's the long term trend we are investing in, and that goes for this board just as it does AAPL. "Don't fight the tape". People are frustrated, and there's an easy thing to blame. It might not happen today either, but in general lets keep the political stuff off the daily thread.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 2, 2019 6:27:52 GMT -8
I would have expected Apple already did this, with one of the "share info to help Apple and 3rd party developers" messages. But I can see calling it out more directly, since it could be much more sensitive information, especially when accidentally summoned. Thanks Apple, for paying attention to these privacy concerns, that other companies might not care a bit about.
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Post by carbonate24 on Aug 2, 2019 6:53:00 GMT -8
I'm pretty sure I said this about three months ago, but in trying to find a silver lining here, those of us who have our dividends automatically reinvested should get more shares if this price action continues for another few days.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2019 6:56:07 GMT -8
Thanks Apple, for paying attention to these privacy concerns, that other companies might not care a bit about. ...or in some cases, salivate over.
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 7:04:57 GMT -8
Cashed out with profits instead of buying more puts. Will wait until Monday. It would be nice if we closed the gap from this morning.
I don’t think we will go below 200 today but it is early.
Feel confident we will see 185 this month. There is also good chance that Trump could postpone the 10% at the last minute. That would trigger a move back into where we were yesterday.
China may be playing the long game, but they are hurting they would prefer to limit the pain as long as possible instead of quick drop in economic output.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 2, 2019 7:30:47 GMT -8
My predictions between now and Monday $185, $221, $200, $195 and $213. You're welcome.
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 7:46:16 GMT -8
Luckychoice
Are you telling us you own $110 million worth of Apple? If true you must get your kicks in hanging out here and have nothing better to with your time. Harassing and bragging to strangers on the internet are not good attributes.
When I get to 7 figures, you will no longer see me posting here. No one pays attention to my warnings anyway.😳 I have big philanthropy plans for my money and will remain anonymous in doing so very many reasons.
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benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Aug 2, 2019 7:48:17 GMT -8
I'm pretty sure I said this about three months ago, but in trying to find a silver lining here, those of us who have our dividends automatically reinvested should get more shares if this price action continues for another few days. and Apple’s opportunity to buy at a discount (supposing trade issues are resolvable at some point)
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 7:59:44 GMT -8
So BOA says Apple may raise prices by 10% to offset the tariffs.
I can see that happening. Apple raised prices due to strong dollar several years ago in many countries. Margins must be protected at all costs.
I find it very telling that Apple also says services grew 18% with qualifiers including currency headwinds. Those are very stupid statements. It’s like saying we would have done better if the economy was stronger.
The MACD has turned bearish for aapl and RSI dropped 24 points in less then 24 hours. Sitting at 48 right now.
Remember RSI over 75 is overbought and under 35 is over sold.
Some of you can make serous money selling calls and puts against your positions.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2019 8:07:59 GMT -8
Harassing and bragging to strangers on the internet are not good attributes. This was your example of irony, right?!?!?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 2, 2019 9:03:28 GMT -8
RSI dropped 24 points in less then 24 hours. Sitting at 48 right now. Remember RSI over 75 is overbought and under 35 is over sold. FWIW, RSI never got above 70 during this go-around. It was 46.99 when I checked an hour ago. Looks like that 185 level you might expect would take it down to 30-35, if it happened fairly quickly. But those are all really just psychology levels, quantified. Meaning right now things are just a touch under what is probably fairly priced, which also happens to be about the pricing level from 14 trading days ago. OTOH, a dip down to 185-190, which I would give a 10-20% chance of happening in the next week if the market stays unhappy, would get down to roughly what RSI levels would agree as oversold. It's all just ups and downs, probability and psychology. The economy is under there somewhere, but not as much in the short term of days and weeks. To add to the fun, we're approaching the prime time for rumorville to ramp up. Did you hear the one about Apple lowering orders from some unproved number from production company C? OMG!!!!
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 2, 2019 9:08:22 GMT -8
I'll buy more if AAPL dips to 190s next week, but it seems overdone to me. I've got too many scars from catching falling knives last time. Is Trump really going to let the market go to hell with a campaign just starting?
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 2, 2019 9:28:32 GMT -8
Luckychoice Are you telling us you own $110 million worth of Apple? Um. No, sponge...I'm not telling you that at all. My wife and I don't own anywhere close to $110 million of AAPL. However, one astute AFB member mentioned in Wednesday's postings, ironically enough addressed directly to you, sponge, that his holdings, as of this year, amounted to 500K shares of AAPL. With this recent pullback, of course, the value of his shares has dropped to a pitiful $102 million. Pathetic! Let's review: First, I mentioned that my wife and I had old records of a purchase that was made on 12/22/00 at $1.07/share, split adjusted and those shares were up 19,468% as of yesterday's close. At the current price of $203.47, though, they're only up 18,994%. Bummer. I then posted the following 3 comments made in the last few days by AFB members, one of which was you and none of which was me: 1. I personally went from having $15K DOLLARS in AAPL 20 years ago, to having 500K SHARES this year. 2. I'm seeing a seven figure gain today in my portfolio 3. Made a quick 400% in 10 min on a very small position. Will use funds to pay off debt. So please tell me, sponge, how did you decide I was bragging that I owned $110 million of AAPL? Inquiring minds would like to know. If true you must get your kicks in hanging out here and have nothing better to with your time. Actually, most of us have plenty to do with our time outside of AFB but quite enjoy the comradery of this board. It's nice to exchange thoughts and news regarding AAPL with like-minded folks. However, I admit to occasionally getting a kick or two from comments made by board members. Harassing and bragging to strangers on the internet are not good attributes. Here's a hint, sponge. I'm guessing that bragging *anonymously* on the internet is not sufficient for someone who feels the need to brag. And as far as harassment goes, I, and probably other members, only counter your comments because new investors/members might read your prognostications and invest as though you can confidently accurately predict AAPL's future movement, up, down or sideways. When I get to 7 figures, you will no longer see me posting here. No one pays attention to my warnings anyway.😳 I have big philanthropy plans for my money and will remain anonymous in doing so very many reasons. That's very admirable, sponge. May I suggest that you consider a "Buy and Hold" strategy for AAPL since I'm confident there are many AFB members who have reached 7 figures using that investment method.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2019 9:59:24 GMT -8
May I suggest that you consider a "Buy and Hold" strategy for AAPL since I'm confident there are many AFB members who have reached 7 figures using that investment method. Amen, brother.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 2, 2019 12:31:42 GMT -8
I've got to download flash to upload my avatar? That's a hard pass!
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 2, 2019 13:07:32 GMT -8
Very frustrated that what should have been been a bang up day for AAPL got short-circuited by the actions of you know who.
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Post by eastbaybob on Aug 2, 2019 13:12:18 GMT -8
May I suggest that you consider a "Buy and Hold" strategy for AAPL since I'm confident there are many AFB members who have reached 7 figures using that investment method. Amen, brother. I have been buy and hold since year 2000. Have never sold a share, I reinvest my IRA dividends into more shares and use my brokerage account dividends to have a very nice retirement. I was able to retire at 57, a few years before the dividends. I was confident that the share price would be rise over the years and that being able to retire at 57 was best for me and my family. I am now almost 67 and I know buy and hold is very effective. If the share price goes up I'm happy. If it goes down I know I will get more shares with dividends and that Apple will be retiring more shares which will lead to much higher dividends. Win/win. I have to say congrats to those who can time the market. I tried that before owning Apple and I lost a lot of money, its easier for me to ride Apple up and down and collect dividends
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 13:21:36 GMT -8
TA says we are going down regardless of what Apple is doing.
TA also said that in Oct last year.
I am trying let you all know simply because it will easier to understand why your accounts are dropping in value.
Heavy volume in 280 SPY puts today. We will see by how much OI went up on Monday.
We could have heavy selling on Monday if China does something bold. Given that we recovered today, I am more confident that the SPY will march towards 300. Apple should rebound with it.
My target is 208 for going all in with Puts.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 2, 2019 13:25:55 GMT -8
I'm pretty sure I said this about three months ago, but in trying to find a silver lining here, those of us who have our dividends automatically reinvested should get more shares if this price action continues for another few days. and Apple’s opportunity to buy at a discount (supposing trade issues are resolvable at some point) And the yield on Apple stock continues to climb!!!
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Post by silkstone on Aug 2, 2019 13:28:08 GMT -8
Harassing and bragging to strangers on the internet are not good attributes. This was your example of irony, right?!?!? Hey layoff, he’s a stable genius on the way to bankruptcy like his hero
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 13:34:26 GMT -8
and Apple’s opportunity to buy at a discount (supposing trade issues are resolvable at some point) And the yield on Apple stock continues to climb!!! The yield is also a good indicator of how low we can go. Back in 2013 I think we went up to 2.4% and in 2016 about 2% Those rates will attract many more institutional investors
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Aug 2, 2019 13:57:41 GMT -8
And the yield on Apple stock continues to climb!!! The yield is also a good indicator of how low we can go. Back in 2013 I think we went up to 2.4% and in 2016 about 2% Those rates will attract many more institutional investors you mean "Institutionalized Investors" hey look, this is a temp thing, watch, next week we'll be back over $215 and everybody will have amnesia of all this. What's ironic about the Tariff thing is... it's supposed to bring jobs back to the USA, but Unemployment is lower than ever, so is that necessary? Wouldn't it make more sense to do something more stock market friendly? It's called "cognative dissonance".
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Post by nwjade on Aug 2, 2019 14:00:02 GMT -8
Questions, Questions, Questions If the 10% tariff goes into effect how will it be calculated? Will it be 10% of the full retail price of an Apple product? Since they're comprised of components from many countries with some sourced from China and then assembled in China, will it be reduced by a formula taking that into account? Some iPhones are being assembled in India (only for the Indian market I believe). Is Apple possibly ramping that up to supply iPhones for the US market? And one more question if anyone knows. Are any Apple products for the US market such as the Apple Watch, AirPods or laptops etc assembled outside of China already?
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Post by longsince98 on Aug 2, 2019 14:32:23 GMT -8
Luckychoice Are you telling us you own $110 million worth of Apple? If true you must get your kicks in hanging out here and have nothing better to with your time. Harassing and bragging to strangers on the internet are not good attributes. When I get to 7 figures, you will no longer see me posting here. No one pays attention to my warnings anyway.😳 I have big philanthropy plans for my money and will remain anonymous in doing so very many reasons. This was me Sponge, and I don’t participate in picking on / harassing you (as much as I do wish you’d phrase things to sound less factual). I believe in this board and participate on occasion because I believe it’s of value to the AAPL investment community, and AAPL is a massive part of my personal wealth. While it’s a valid personal choice for others to kick back when they attain their wealth, I’m still a very active entrepreneur, and in my mid-40s, so I don’t believe in kicking back, and not sure I ever will. And FTR, half of my holdings are margins at this price, which has definitely been a wild and uncomfortable ride at times - but it’s also been my main approach to attaining this much AAPL - aggressive margins + addition of new FCF when I can.
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 14:58:11 GMT -8
Luckychoice Are you telling us you own $110 million worth of Apple? If true you must get your kicks in hanging out here and have nothing better to with your time. Harassing and bragging to strangers on the internet are not good attributes. When I get to 7 figures, you will no longer see me posting here. No one pays attention to my warnings anyway.😳 I have big philanthropy plans for my money and will remain anonymous in doing so very many reasons. This was me Sponge, and I don’t participate in picking on / harassing you (as much as I do wish you’d phrase things to sound less factual). I believe in this board and participate on occasion because I believe it’s of value to the AAPL investment community, and AAPL is a massive part of my personal wealth. While it’s a valid personal choice for others to kick back when they attain their wealth, I’m still a very active entrepreneur, and in my mid-40s, so I don’t believe in kicking back, and not sure I ever will. And FTR, half of my holdings are margins at this price, which has definitely been a wild and uncomfortable ride at times - but it’s also been my main approach to attaining this much AAPL - aggressive margins + addition of new FCF when I can. Glad to hear you accumulated that much. Well just be carful with margin in this environment . I want to see you triple that amount in a few years. You already know where I stand about aapl and it’s immediate future. I don’t recall getting flack from you but then I don’t keep track of everyone either. Given your age and holdings I can see why you are more savvy and laidback.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 2, 2019 16:19:24 GMT -8
TA says we are going down regardless of what Apple is doing. TA also said that in Oct last year. I am trying let you all know simply because it will easier to understand why your accounts are dropping in value. Heavy volume in 280 SPY puts today. We will see by how much OI went up on Monday. We could have heavy selling on Monday if China does something bold. Given that we recovered today, I am more confident that the SPY will march towards 300. Apple should rebound with it. My target is 208 for going all in with Puts. Oh Gawd, so now it's TA that controls AAPL. Where was TA just before Trump tweeted more tariffs? Puhleeze. Sponge, take the advice of us multi-millionaires courtesy of Apple, Inc.: BUY AND HOLD (if you need to be entertained with trading your TA and price targets, limit it to $100 each week). Cheers!
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Post by pauls on Aug 2, 2019 16:49:03 GMT -8
TA says we are going down regardless of what Apple is doing. TA also said that in Oct last year. I am trying let you all know simply because it will easier to understand why your accounts are dropping in value. Heavy volume in 280 SPY puts today. We will see by how much OI went up on Monday. We could have heavy selling on Monday if China does something bold. Given that we recovered today, I am more confident that the SPY will march towards 300. Apple should rebound with it. My target is 208 for going all in with Puts. Oh Gawd, so now it's TA that controls AAPL. Where was TA just before Trump tweeted more tariffs? Puhleeze. Sponge, take the advice of us multi-millionaires courtesy of Apple, Inc.: BUY AND HOLD (if you need to be entertained with trading your TA and price targets, limit it to $100 each week). Cheers! No doubt there’s a select few who get a heads up when a hot tweet is imminent....maybe Sponge is on the list? He’s mighty confident.
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 16:58:45 GMT -8
LOL
I told you guys TA said we would crash before Apple even announced earnings. Thus I was in cash. I looked at TA and nothing else. MFI has been dropping in Apple since 6/20. The tweet is a distraction and excuse for what the market would do anyway.
Now had I had the guts to act and go all in on the day of earnings, I would have 7 figures today. But no worries there is plenty of pain left in the next 12 months.
MFI is indicating we will drop to 180 by August 16. We will see if history repeats itself.
On Monday if we open lower then we closed today, then we are about to see some real selling next week. I hope we don't because I want to make 2000% return not 400% next time.
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Post by sponge on Aug 2, 2019 17:02:27 GMT -8
Here is what I said on July 19. I think the selloff has more to do with comments from the FED member about not needing to raise rates. There is also Charter that WS expects .5 and we may only get .25 Also there are more stories about the Chinese and US not making progress in talks. Also there have been two reports about lower sales for Apple in China.
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