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Post by dreamRaj on Aug 7, 2019 6:05:13 GMT -8
Well, well, well, the points that the Dow had gained yesterday are all gone today and then some. Dow drops 400 points as investors fret about global growth outlook - It's down 555 as I type this. Amazon tempts students away from Apple Music, Spotify, with $0.99/month deal - Amazon is always about making it inexpensive. Hands-on: Apple Card application and approval, Wallet app, iPad support, more - gtrplyr must've already applied Disney announces bundle with Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ for $12.99 per month - More than Netflix, Disney might be the one TV+ needs to compete with. Have a nice day and let's make money, if we can.
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Post by dreamRaj on Aug 7, 2019 6:20:21 GMT -8
In case you missed it yesterday, this post by macentropist is worth a mention again: WAG, they're going to go for making the 5G modem part of the SoC and that's going to take time, by 2021 maybe? It'll be worth it in a number of ways to reduce power and free up space for a larger battery. Nobody has more chip design prowess on this earth! 2000 engineers on board from intel, who was very close to what aapl wanted or they wouldn't spend 1Billion! And all them engineers will be led by the best chip design leaders in the free world, to quote Neil Young. Me thinks you are all understanding the very high r&d increase. Aapl 5G modems equal to qcom by 2021 at the latest. And do not forget, the license for 7 years from qcom, Tim knew wtf he was doing. Next up, you all do realize aapl has many very highly touted satellite rocket scientist onboard, right! Think 1500 5G satellites all aapl owned, and musk will place them with pin point precision, then it is T and VZ that are fubared. Ok, Sprint and tmobile, too Yall do not understand the cost and time to upgrade their networks, while AAPL does... and AAPL has FU$$$$$$$$$$$$, and Tim et al long term plans make President XI in China, with their long term world domination, look foolish. AAPL long term plans extend decades, and they are laser focused. Next question... 2 pesos
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 7, 2019 6:30:34 GMT -8
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Post by longsince98 on Aug 7, 2019 6:40:05 GMT -8
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Post by longsince98 on Aug 7, 2019 6:42:42 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Aug 7, 2019 6:42:44 GMT -8
The SPY is turning around just as I was afraid it would given that MFI was in oversold territory. The RSI for the SPY at 31 matched the May low.
Back to cash.
We may go sideways now and I no longer see a flush. Will wait until Labor Day weekend and assess where we will be at that time.
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Post by silkstone on Aug 7, 2019 6:49:12 GMT -8
The SPY is turning around just as I was afraid it would given that MFI was in oversold territory. The RSI for the SPY at 31 matched the May low. Back to cash. We may go sideways now and I no longer see a flush. Will wait until Labor Day weekend and assess where we will be at that time. Wow, amazing timing. Glad you got out in time
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Post by longsince98 on Aug 7, 2019 6:51:12 GMT -8
The SPY is turning around just as I was afraid it would given that MFI was in oversold territory. The RSI for the SPY at 31 matched the May low. Back to cash. We may go sideways now and I no longer see a flush. Will wait until Labor Day weekend and assess where we will be at that time. Hi Sponge, with the caveat that I think TA is self fulfilling in many ways, plus the changes in outlook are too frequent for me to give it more credence, there are too many coincidences for there to not be some elusive worth in following TA. With that in mind, I’m wondering why that after market flush to $187 a couple nights back doesn’t qualify for what you were looking for. While I only traded prior to dot-com-crash days, and have only been long since that period (never sold a share), I do follow closely for margin/cash planning purposes. So I’m always interested in bearish POVs as well. Thanks
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Post by sponge on Aug 7, 2019 6:59:59 GMT -8
The SPY is turning around just as I was afraid it would given that MFI was in oversold territory. The RSI for the SPY at 31 matched the May low. Back to cash. We may go sideways now and I no longer see a flush. Will wait until Labor Day weekend and assess where we will be at that time. Hi Sponge, with the caveat that I think TA is self fulfilling in many ways, plus the changes in outlook are too frequent for me to give it more credence, there are too many coincidences for there to not be some elusive worth in following TA. With that in mind, I’m wondering why that after market flush to $187 a couple nights back doesn’t qualify for what you were looking for. While I only traded prior to dot-com-crash days, and have only been long since that period (never sold a share), I do follow closely for margin/cash planning purposes. So I’m always interested in bearish POVs as well. Thanks No I think you are correct about the flush in AH. We have had those before. That also happens to be the number I am looking for in first week of Sept. We tend to visit the low the quarter at least twice and then of course the high. So 221 is very possible by end of Sept. I also like to see our RSI in the lows 30s and we only hit 38 today. Never the less this whole sell off had everything to do with the SPY and QQQ. They sold off and took Apple with it. They recovered and so did Apple.
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Post by sponge on Aug 7, 2019 7:01:54 GMT -8
Once we get passed OE I think we will work our way back to filling the 204 gap at this point.
So grabbing a few calls is tempting.
It should also be noted that MFI for Apple continues to slowly deflate. Money is coming out of this stock. This tells me it is the retail investors that listens to WS price targets which are responsible for the moves to 221 and 187.
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Post by carbonate24 on Aug 7, 2019 7:16:30 GMT -8
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Post by gtrplyr on Aug 7, 2019 7:34:00 GMT -8
I guess I asked to be notified too late to get the initial email for the Apple Card so I wait patiently. It's a forgone conclusion that I will be getting one and canceling the AAdvantage Citicard that we have had for 20 years. I'll miss the travel points as that card has taken my family to Europe and back several times for free! We built a house three years ago and I put everything you can think of on the card ... buying windows, doors, pluming, lighting fixtures for our house really jacked up the miles.
In any case, I'm certain Apple Card will have plenty of benefits so I'm already sold. Plus .... It's just cool!
Cheers to the longs ....
P.S. I'm relieved now that the absorbent one has told me that we are not going to crash and I won't be eating dogfood in the near future ... wait .... that post was at least 10 mins ago, I better check before I write this as he may have changed his mind by now.
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Aug 7, 2019 7:41:28 GMT -8
Tim and Luca want to take AAPL private... Not if....When... Cheers to the Longs (and the long term thinking at the top echelon at Apple) Thanks for opening the thread today dreamRaj!
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Post by sponge on Aug 7, 2019 7:56:11 GMT -8
By the late fall and Dec we will see the lows of the year. The debate will be weather we re visit 142 or end up about 20 points higher.
From FA analysis the 160 makes sense if revenue ends flat like we had last Q. We started the year 158.
If the 11 is a real dud like I expect then Q1 guidance will show that and we will revisit 142.
But it is next summer that we will see the real lows.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 7, 2019 8:11:59 GMT -8
Tim and Luca want to take AAPL private... Not if....When... But that's the thing....buybacks never get them there, and could even get them further away by spending the cash that is often not valued by AAPL investors as a whole. Instead, like a stock split, it just changes the valuation of the shares due to the new total share count....ideally. I don't see how that gets Apple any closer to being taken private. Lucky's last share would be likely to cost more than $1T.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 7, 2019 8:17:45 GMT -8
But it is next summer that we will see the real lows. Yes, of course, because no one will be excited about the 5G phones
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Post by sponge on Aug 7, 2019 8:35:12 GMT -8
But it is next summer that we will see the real lows. Yes, of course, because no one will be excited about the 5G phones The excitement will be overshadowed by the recession and election year volatility.
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Post by Luckychoices on Aug 7, 2019 8:53:05 GMT -8
Tim and Luca want to take AAPL private... Not if....When... But that's the thing....buybacks never get them there, and could even get them further away by spending the cash that is often not valued by AAPL investors as a whole. Instead, like a stock split, it just changes the valuation of the shares due to the new total share count....ideally. I don't see how that gets Apple any closer to being taken private. Lucky's longsince1ish's last share would be likely to cost more than $1T. FIFY, 4aapl!
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Aug 7, 2019 9:30:56 GMT -8
But that's the thing....buybacks never get them there, and could even get them further away by spending the cash that is often not valued by AAPL investors as a whole. Instead, like a stock split, it just changes the valuation of the shares due to the new total share count....ideally. I don't see how that gets Apple any closer to being taken private. Lucky's longsince1ish's last share would be likely to cost more than $1T. FIFY, 4aapl! As will my last share, FIFY
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Post by nwjade on Aug 7, 2019 9:52:40 GMT -8
In case you missed it yesterday, this post by macentropist is worth a mention again: Nobody has more chip design prowess on this earth! 2000 engineers on board from intel, who was very close to what aapl wanted or they wouldn't spend 1Billion! And all them engineers will be led by the best chip design leaders in the free world, to quote Neil Young. Me thinks you are all understanding the very high r&d increase. Aapl 5G modems equal to qcom by 2021 at the latest. And do not forget, the license for 7 years from qcom, Tim knew wtf he was doing. Next up, you all do realize aapl has many very highly touted satellite rocket scientist onboard, right! Think 1500 5G satellites all aapl owned, and musk will place them with pin point precision, then it is T and VZ that are fubared. Ok, Sprint and tmobile, too Yall do not understand the cost and time to upgrade their networks, while AAPL does... and AAPL has FU$$$$$$$$$$$$, and Tim et al long term plans make President XI in China, with their long term world domination, look foolish. AAPL long term plans extend decades, and they are laser focused. Next question... 2 pesos Macentropist, there was some talk of Boeing and Apple teaming up back in 2017 to develop, launch and operate a constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit. Wondering if you have any actual information linking Apple to currently developing 5G satellites or are you just speculating?
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ems
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Post by ems on Aug 7, 2019 9:58:06 GMT -8
AAPL private: I'd like to see the combo of banks that could finance that... seems like it would be impossible, even without folks pretending that somehow they could hold out their last share for a higher price (hahah... if only that worked... ;-)
The card will get a lot of traction, I think. I'll get one (not that I need it) just for the hell of it, and it's a cool flex to pull one out, or at least it will be for a while until everyone has one. Sort of like how Apple Watch and now Airpods are a flex for people.
Good info re: SoC for the 5G modems. That could be a big gamechanger for wearables like watch, if it's lower-powered than QCOM, more integrated, faster, better, cheaper, etc. The 5G satellite idea is a good one too, I'd be surprised if muskrat would play ball on that though, since they want to be a player in that space themselves.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 7, 2019 10:32:49 GMT -8
AAPL private: I'd like to see the combo of banks that could finance that... seems like it would be impossible, even without folks pretending that somehow they could hold out their last share for a higher price (hahah... if only that worked... ;-) While you're right, Apple's current buyback is only making the value per share more concentrated. It will be a while until AFB has a high enough voting power to swing the vote, but we currently own more than 1/10,000th of the company, and possibly 1/5,000th. Still, you're right. If Apple came in and offered a 40-50% premium, call that $300/share, it would pass and we'd have a chunk of cash in our pocket instead of a bunch of dividend paying shares. Instead, they're eating away at the daily traded shares, but I really have no idea what percentage of the shares out there having traded in 5+ years. I do like seeing AAPL making some gains beyond the S&P, though that margin has shrunk some in the last hour.
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Post by nwjade on Aug 7, 2019 11:34:03 GMT -8
Nasdaq and S&P both green and the DOW just went green too in spite of DIS after being down almost 600 points.
Appl is currently trading back above the 50 day.
Fingers crossed the markets continue to stabilize.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 7, 2019 11:56:21 GMT -8
The SPY is turning around just as I was afraid it would given that MFI was in oversold territory. The RSI for the SPY at 31 matched the May low. Back to cash. We may go sideways now and I no longer see a flush. Will wait until Labor Day weekend and assess where we will be at that time. Sponge, the ramp in Apple is likely to occur next Spring. Too, it's an election cycle and Trump will do everything to keep us out of a recession - and that requires a trade deal (he also needs one to stay out of jail). I was buying calls and shares all the way down to $191 but chickened out buying more shares at sub 190 since the futures were 500 to the bad (and NOT because the TA gurus were so confident of going lower). The iPhone 12 with 5G will be a catalyst. Also, iPhone 11 will NOT be a bust, because even though its iterative, the replacement cycle alone (every 5 years) suggests a minimum of 200M iPhones sold FY 2020 - that's better than WS expectations.
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Post by longsince98 on Aug 7, 2019 12:28:59 GMT -8
The SPY is turning around just as I was afraid it would given that MFI was in oversold territory. The RSI for the SPY at 31 matched the May low. Back to cash. We may go sideways now and I no longer see a flush. Will wait until Labor Day weekend and assess where we will be at that time. Sponge, the ramp in Apple is likely to occur next Spring. Too, it's an election cycle and Trump will do everything to keep us out of a recession - and that requires a trade deal (he also needs one to stay out of jail). I was buying calls and shares all the way down to $191 but chickened out buying more shares at sub 190 since the futures were 500 to the bad (and NOT because the TA gurus were so confident of going lower). The iPhone 12 with 5G will be a catalyst. Also, iPhone 11 will NOT be a bust, because even though its iterative, the replacement cycle alone (every 5 years) suggests a minimum of 200M iPhones sold FY 2020 - that's better than WS expectations. I share this POV exactly.
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Post by sponge on Aug 7, 2019 12:56:17 GMT -8
Oh, where do I begin?
First of all, Trump can do little to prevent a recession. He is screaming for a Fed cut in the strongest economy ever. He knows one is coming, but wants to blame the Fed for it. It is BS but that is what will happen.
Second of all China issue is not going away. it will get worse before it gets better. Apple will be impacted simply because the Chinese can take the market down by going after Apple. What happened in Dec. where suddenly with no warning sales were down 15% there in one month? Don't believe the TC BS that Apple was not targeted by the gov.
Thirdly, yes there may be 200 million iPhones sold in FY2020. That seems high to me, but I will go along. Those replacing their old ones are not suddenly going to pay $300 more for a new one in a recession. Economies are slowing down in China and Europe. People will be hanging on to their phones even longer and when they do upgrade, it will be to cheaper models.
Fourthly. Replacement models do not grow the market share user base. Yes TC bragged about that in the last conference meeting, but I think it was from the second-hand phones which are causing that and we don't know by how much. Without new higher-end customers, their services and accessories growth will stall. They sold 12% fewer iPhones last quarter and services grew 15%. That trend may continue but we won't see 25% growth to make up for the drop to 15%. Accessories could do better, but they are not as important to consumers as the iPhones and also could be delayed.
I found it interesting that Disney which is a true powerhouse studio is losing money on streaming. Apple will not make money from their Apple + simply because unlike music creating content is very expensive.
By the way, Disney is acting like Apple. Their park attendance was down 3% but revenue was up 7%. They are increasing their prices beyond what an average consumer can spend. So those who do go to the park spend more because they are more affluent. Apple is selling high end iPhones and those customers are buying $160 airpods.
Those are all FA opinions. But I look at TA and the SPY shows a significant drop by Dec and an even bigger drop by June of next year.
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SomeJuan
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Post by SomeJuan on Aug 7, 2019 13:26:25 GMT -8
AAPL private: I'd like to see the combo of banks that could finance that... seems like it would be impossible, even without folks pretending that somehow they could hold out their last share for a higher price (hahah... if only that worked... ;-) The card will get a lot of traction, I think. I'll get one (not that I need it) just for the hell of it, and it's a cool flex to pull one out, or at least it will be for a while until everyone has one. Sort of like how Apple Watch and now Airpods are a flex for people. Good info re: SoC for the 5G modems. That could be a big gamechanger for wearables like watch, if it's lower-powered than QCOM, more integrated, faster, better, cheaper, etc. The 5G satellite idea is a good one too, I'd be surprised if muskrat would play ball on that though, since they want to be a player in that space themselves. Muskrat has no income, no banks are willing to refinance, his boring company is grounded, his stock is a loser, he overpromises and under-delivers, and no sane person truly believes half his utterances. And yes, he has talked about low orbit coverage, talk is cheap. If only he had FU money like AAPL, who can fund the entire project! Apple just needs a delivery company for said satellites, no larger than a MacMini with solar wings for the renewable energy, which is modest. So until Bezos starts space next day delivery, Space X is it. www.spacex.com/smallsat2.25 million per 150KG delivery... how heavy will the Sat’s be, IDK, im guessing fully tricked out maybe 3-4 KG per unit, math is hard... All those tiny little mac minis with octo-core 5 NM chips, with aapl transceivers and receivers integrated into the SOC. By 2025 Apple will launch one over your house, or if you are “Lucky”, your island, as just another service option! Maybe i should stick to writing... Science Fiction.
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Post by therealmercel on Aug 7, 2019 13:29:35 GMT -8
It is Trump's decision to ink a trade deal and lift scheduled tariffs Sept. 1. Both will prevent a recession in 2020. Even if there is a recession, it won't likely mean too much w/demand for 5G iPhones if the carriers do their part w/promised service upgrades. A recession is not a financial collapse as you seem to be implying.
I said "replacement cycle" though it doesn't mean there won't be new customers in that #. Further, people upgrading don't all trade them in for new ones - many are likely sold to Android users or given away to family members, extending and/or preserving the customer base. My point is that 200M iPhones over the next year is a reasonable expectation, whatever the mix of new and old customers.
Despite the decline YOY, the June quarter did better sequentially from March - June by approx. 2-4M iPhones (as compared to historical March - June declines). Half-glass full here.
TA and SPY are signaling a big drop by next June? Oh, dear. Is there a bridge I should be ready to jump from?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 7, 2019 17:31:28 GMT -8
Hmm, not sure how much of the above (or below) was written tongue in cheek, maybe a treatment for a Netflix series.
As far as satellites go, the latency is a bitch.
Apple does not have and unlikely ever will have the $1.5T in cash needed to go private. Not exactly a big favor to loyal shareholders, forcing a one time massive capital gain at Apple's convenience instead of investors' preferred timing.
I'm agnostic on 5G. It kind of reminds me of the constantly moving HDTV standards. OMG we all need 4K when the human eye really can't tell the difference between 720P and 1080P over 7 feet away, let alone 4K let alone 8K. It's all an excuse to upgrade.
We constantly hear how much faster CPUs and video processors are, but we can never tell the difference in real world usage because bloaty OS's and apps use up every last cycle. I suspect the same will be true of 5G, not that I get more than one bar in my neighborhood with 4G. And the massive antennae and number of towers needed to make 5G work is a big engineering problem, and will probably give us all brain cancer.
OK, I've spread enough pixie dust for one day! Cheers to the longs, green Apple even on a red Dow day. Thanks for that Disney, still trying to ram ESPN down everyone's throats, of course nobody wants your F-ing bundle! That's what Apple should spend its money on Disney minus that albatross ESPN.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Aug 7, 2019 19:26:37 GMT -8
Oh, where do I begin? First of all, Trump can do little to prevent a recession. He is screaming for a Fed cut in the strongest economy ever. He knows one is coming, but wants to blame the Fed for it. It is BS but that is what will happen. Not sure this makes sense. How can a recession be coming if the economy is the strongest ever. This is a non sequitur, no? If Trump is screaming at the Fed to cut interest rates, then he obviously thinks the economy needs stimulus. But why does the 'strongest economy ever' need stimulus? If the economy is that strong it should be resilient. I suspect, though, we are heading for a global downturn. It's been 28 years since Australia had a technical recession(two quarters of negative growth). The economy is talked up here too but it doesn't feel like the good times are going to last much longer.
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