chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2019 4:21:08 GMT -8
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walterwhite
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"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 16, 2019 5:48:50 GMT -8
lots of activity this weekend responding to sponge and his list... but i really liked the following post by bud777... putting my trader hat aside and putting investor hat on (i have both long-term core AAPL position and shorter-term swing bets)... this could be current AAPL investor's manifesto... want to print and frame it thanks bud777! 🙏
So my latest price targets are as follows. 170 in Nov 140 in June 2020 105 in Dec 2020 I might add that by June 2021 TC will be on his way out and the company will start to recover and so will its stock. If this prediction was designed to animate the board and give us something to talk about, congratulations. For those of us who are trying so hard to believe that you are not sniffing glue, tell me something. if the drop is caused by general economic collapse i.e. a major recession, where to you think people will put the money they get from dumping Apple? Oil? not hardly we have a glut, even with SA on fire. Other tech? why wouldn't they be down too? Bonds? at these rates? Apple is the high ground. With 5G coming, I see amazing demand. 200 million people replace their phone every year. How long did people stay with 3G after 4G LTE was available? Do you think it is unreasonable to expect 400 million when 5G comes online? Now about your criticism of Tim... I for one think that he has done an excellent job. I was never that impressed with Jobs. If you want to understand his vision, read about Alan Kay. I haven't seen anything original that Jobs added to Kay's work. I listened to Jobs in the last earnings call he attended before he died. He came across as a petulant spoiled child. I think Cook brought much needed stability and the numbers seem to agree. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate what Jobs accomplished. If he hadn't brought Xerox PARC's work to the market, we would still be editing with vi and looking at text. In 1980, Xerox decided that the revolutionary work done in their labs could not be commercialized ( I assume) and they gave it away. They gave it to IBM, HP, Tektronix, and Apple. Tektronix started an entire research lab based on it. Many of the people there had close ties to Xerox. It was my good fortune to spend a year working with them in 1985. The current state of computing is still 2-3 years behind what Xerox created. I do give Jobs credit for bring that work to market, But Cook's stewardship is really what has made Apple what it is today. For all the people aching for Job's showmanship and "one more thing" I would point to the power of evolution. We saw, in the last product announcement, how Apple was moving forward in every category. Bringing forward a revolutionary new product is not the best way to grow. It will be immediately copied and made into a commodity. With intellectual property unprotected as it is now( I am not talking about China, I am talking about Google and Microsoft) the only defense is to improve your product faster that the competition. Think about the Apple watch. Pretend you are working for Samsung and you are trying to match the 3rd edition. Just when you are ready to announce your "We can do anything Apple watch can do" version, here comes the heart monitoring and fall protection. It is enough to make you break your slide rule. I saw advances in every field, slow steady, hard to duplicate progress. That is what Tim has brought us. I don't try to predict the stock value, but I would be very surprised if it doesn't double over the next two years. And Tim, if you are reading this, how about a 4-1 split so others can share the wealth? cheers to the longs!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 16, 2019 6:00:21 GMT -8
In stock news, looks like we are going down further tomorrow. The refinery attack will drag the market down. Buckle up, looks like a tough week. cheer up fellas... the fat lady hasn't sung yet! look at aapl fighting valiantly to be green in first 30min of trading... almost $220 there's always something that can drag it down quickly, whether some china-related tweets from the fella in charge or news of another anti-trust investigation... just have some dry powder for those moments. overall initial news on iPhone 11 demand look positive cheers to the longs!
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Post by laf on Sept 16, 2019 6:30:04 GMT -8
WW, I share your appreciation for Bud's post and perspective. The only critique I would have of Bud's note is that I think it underplay's Job's contribution to Apple upon his return. I left Apple just before Job's return and Apple was in trouble. Job's insight for products that people would use and love was great and his ability to get teams of talented people making those products was truly amazing.
Sponge's list is fun to consider but really trivializes the work to make any of those things happen. Frankly I am very glad Apple can still say no to "good" ideas and can focus on its core business. That benefits me as a customer and shareholder. Would we be better over the long haul to have bought netflix or to have invested in building our own chips. There are lots of bad decisions at apple but for the most part we have a superior team with a great market and technical position. Lets not screw that up.
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2019 7:00:10 GMT -8
WW, I share your appreciation for Bud's post and perspective. The only critique I would have of Bud's note is that I think it underplay's Job's contribution to Apple upon his return. I left Apple just before Job's return and Apple was in trouble. Job's insight for products that people would use and love was great and his ability to get teams of talented people making those products was truly amazing. Sponge's list is fun to consider but really trivializes the work to make any of those things happen. Frankly I am very glad Apple can still say no to "good" ideas and can focus on its core business. That benefits me as a customer and shareholder. Would we be better over the long haul to have bought netflix or to have invested in building our own chips. There are lots of bad decisions at apple but for the most part we have a superior team with a great market and technical position. Lets not screw that up. There is no doubt some of the items on the list would have cost billions. But here is the kicker. Apple has spent about $70 billion (estimate in the last 9 years). And billions more buying back the stock. What do they have to show for it in innovation. Yes you can list many improvements in the iPhone and wearables, but they don’t have anything that blows people away which one can not be purchased from a competitor. Market share is dropping not going up. That is unacceptable given the amount of money they have. We will never know what they wasted billions on in those 9 years in R&D. Siri and maps are just not good enough anymore. I can’t tell you how bad both are in the real world. Maps is a joke. A simple search of files, emails, or even the web give crazy results. And the list goes on. My son and his friend spend thousands of dollars on gaming in VR and PC game hardware and just laugh at Apple. This all in 10 years. TC tells us that we must wait for automation like self driving a long time, but many companies are years ahead of them. I expect better products from them at this time more then ever. I don’t want to be forced to pay more for less when it comes to iPhones and wearables. One is much too positively bias in their view of Apple and its leadership simply because they have owned the stock for 15 years. LIke I said. They have benefited from the mobile revolution that SJ and JY started. So the last 10 years were amazing. I want new and amazing products. I am sure they will give us some, but it will be awhile before they can replace the success of the iPhone.
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2019 7:06:42 GMT -8
I think if we can get past 220, we should see 225 by Wed. The Fed rate cut may cause a sell off which which should take us back to 220 by Friday.
Then after OE, we could see more profit taking like we did after the last Fed cut.
What happens in Oc will depend on Trump and China.
I am confident Apple will give us bad guidance which will once again start a major sell off into the end of the year. GDP numbers will also be soft adding more selling.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2019 7:26:25 GMT -8
iPhone 11 status: The Black, Red, and White ones remain mostly available for shipment on Friday, though the lowest 64 GB version for both Black and White are now both backordered.
It all doesn't mean much without numbers nor knowledge of production vs past years. Maybe the timing worked out this year that they could produce for 2 extra days before initial shipments? Maybe there's a couple extra lines running? Maybe production is more efficient? Or sure, one could guess maybe demand isn't as high, though that's a tough guess? Regardless, most (including all the other colors, and nearly all of the Pros) have sold out of the initial online shippable supply, but there are some configs available if you're looking. And there will be ones at the stores, though you might not get your first choice of size or color.
Have a great week everyone!
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Post by silkstone on Sept 16, 2019 7:33:57 GMT -8
I think if we can get past 220, we should see 225 by Wed. The Fed rate cut may cause a sell off which which should take us back to 220 by Friday. Then after OE, we could see more profit taking like we did after the last Fed cut. What happens in Oc will depend on Trump and China. I am confident Apple will give us bad guidance which will once again start a major sell off into the end of the year. GDP numbers will also be soft adding more selling. we shall see what Apple will do, you’re always confident but hardly ever on target so be careful with the options. The most important ingredient in a successful investing decision is to be correct and you seldom are.
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2019 7:40:58 GMT -8
iPhone 11 status: The Black, Red, and White ones remain mostly available for shipment on Friday, though the lowest 64 GB version for both Black and White are now both backordered. It all doesn't mean much without numbers nor knowledge of production vs past years. Maybe the timing worked out this year that they could produce for 2 extra days before initial shipments? Maybe there's a couple extra lines running? Maybe production is more efficient? Or sure, one could guess maybe demand isn't as high, though that's a tough guess? Regardless, most (including all the other colors, and nearly all of the Pros) have sold out of the initial online shippable supply, but there are some configs available if you're looking. And there will be ones at the stores, though you might not get your first choice of size or color. Have a great week everyone! I don’t think that data is a valid way to judge how well a product is selling anymore. We have always seen 3-6 week wait times for the last 7 years. If in 2 months we continue to see 3 week wait times then that’s a different story. (That would mean the Chinese shut down a factory just to send a message) Demand for the latest and greatest is so low that one can walk in a buy most iPhones on the day of launch. Now we wait for rumors from supply chain.
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2019 7:45:21 GMT -8
I should note that the UN message by the US Ambassador indicates we should be ready for an attack on Iran.
If we start to sell off at end of day, we better be ready for major selling this week. May buy some puts if that happens.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 16, 2019 8:03:22 GMT -8
I should note that the UN message by the US Ambassador indicates we should be ready for an attack on Iran. If we start to sell off at end of day, we better be ready for major selling this week. May buy some puts if that happens. Any full fledged attack on Iran will lead to significant destruction in the Saudi oil fields, gas way over $3 and a global market crash that could easily take us down 50%, that’s when I’ll be buying more Apple shares. The tough guy “we are locked and loaded” talk does nothing to improve the situation.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Sept 16, 2019 8:23:42 GMT -8
I think if we can get past 220, we should see 225 by Wed. The Fed rate cut may cause a sell off which which should take us back to 220 by Friday. LOL! I should note that the UN message by the US Ambassador indicates we should be ready for an attack on Iran. If we start to sell off at end of day, we better be ready for major selling this week. May buy some puts if that happens. spongie... if you expect market (or aapl) to tank, the time to buy puts is *before* not "if that happens" (which implies after it happens)... but you knew that
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2019 8:24:40 GMT -8
I don’t think that data is a valid way to judge how well a product is selling anymore. We have always seen 3-6 week wait times for the last 7 years. It's hard to pull any solid positiveness from the limited data, but we can pull the non-negative. i.e. that since some/most are selling out, especially the newer colors that might be more trendy (and more possible for Apple to make a mistake on the trendiness), that there aren't any huge mistakes on picking new colors and that the consumer field hasn't actually completely dried up. So mainly it just lets you take a few things off the possible wall of worry. Given your weekend's list of shoulda/coulda/woulda, sometimes there's a lot of worrying going on, instead of focusing or at least giving props to what's gone well.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Sept 16, 2019 8:25:55 GMT -8
I'd bet that most AFBers thought that last week's presentation was better than expected, with the specter of "waiting for 5G" hanging over it. Well... ZDnet begs to differ with Apple's biggest lie is the one it keeps telling itself, which includes equating Apple to...wait for it...yes, The Donald.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 16, 2019 8:50:45 GMT -8
iPhone 11 status: The Black, Red, and White ones remain mostly available for shipment on Friday, though the lowest 64 GB version for both Black and White are now both backordered. It all doesn't mean much without numbers nor knowledge of production vs past years. Maybe the timing worked out this year that they could produce for 2 extra days before initial shipments? Maybe there's a couple extra lines running? Maybe production is more efficient? Or sure, one could guess maybe demand isn't as high, though that's a tough guess? Regardless, most (including all the other colors, and nearly all of the Pros) have sold out of the initial online shippable supply, but there are some configs available if you're looking. And there will be ones at the stores, though you might not get your first choice of size or color. Have a great week everyone! I don’t think that data is a valid way to judge how well a product is selling anymore. We have always seen 3-6 week wait times for the last 7 years. If in 2 months we continue to see 3 week wait times then that’s a different story. (That would mean the Chinese shut down a factory just to send a message) Demand for the latest and greatest is so low that one can walk in a buy most iPhones on the day of launch. Now we wait for rumors from supply chain. Yea, supply chain rumors have already started today with Ming Chi Kuo stating the iPhone 11 is off to a strong start in both China and the USA. However; not to be outdone the beloved Rosenblatt Securities has gone and hired their own Asian analyst, a Mr. Jun Zhang I believe it is and he says it’s terrible and off to a lackluster start. So sponge, is zhang your pen name.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Sept 16, 2019 9:42:26 GMT -8
Several of the iPhone 11 demand articles stating high China demand talk about the lowered pricing premium. There is still a 10% premium, but that's down from 20%.
What I wonder is how much of that "20% premium" was due to a change in currency valuation, especially with the recent change. And that leads to the question of how often Apple changes their pricing in foreign countries. A portion of this all cancels out for China and the US, due to the source of parts and IP. And Apple often sites "currency headwinds or tailwinds" as affecting earnings. But if there were a big swing somewhere, I wonder at what point Apple reprices.
Good to see AAPL up a little on a day I was expecting to only see a little red. It's great to be a bit above the market too.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 16, 2019 11:01:45 GMT -8
Several of the iPhone 11 demand articles stating high China demand talk about the lowered pricing premium. There is still a 10% premium, but that's down from 20%. What I wonder is how much of that "20% premium" was due to a change in currency valuation, especially with the recent change. And that leads to the question of how often Apple changes their pricing in foreign countries. A portion of this all cancels out for China and the US, due to the source of parts and IP. And Apple often sites "currency headwinds or tailwinds" as affecting earnings. But if there were a big swing somewhere, I wonder at what point Apple reprices. Good to see AAPL up a little on a day I was expecting to only see a little red. It's great to be a bit above the market too. Apple has a lot of levers they can pull when it comes to pricing and iPhone sales. Some we know and some we don’t. With an installed base of many hundreds of millions out there, it’s not gonna be hard for them to sell a couple hundred million iPhones every year. Plus you still have people switching from android as iPhone is the aspirational brand overseas and here in the states. You also still have more first time buyers of cell phones. So, imo it doesn’t really make sense trying to figure out exactly how the phone is selling, it’s selling well as it always has from day one. That will never change unless people stop using cell phones to run their lives and their businesses. The installed base is still growing as are the increasing number of services businesses, wearables, revenues, earnings, dividends. Those are all signs of a healthy company. Getting down in the weeds and grasping for straws to try to get ahead of how many phones they’re selling is a moot point imo.
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Post by sponge on Sept 16, 2019 12:14:14 GMT -8
If iPhone orders are off to a strong start, that may explain why guidance was strong for Q4.
I can already see TC justify low guidance for Q1. IPhone available sooner therefore YOY compare justified for lower sales in Q1.
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Post by silkstone on Sept 16, 2019 12:23:58 GMT -8
If iPhone orders are off to a strong start, that may explain why guidance was strong for Q4. I can already see TC justify low guidance for Q1. IPhone available sooner therefore YOY compare justified for lower sales in Q1. Yea, that’s one lever of many but guidance was strong for q4 because they believe earnings and revenues will be strong. iPhone 11 sales had not begun when the guidance was given so that was obviously not the reason for the guidance. TC’s approval rating is well above 90% with Apple employees, you only get kicked out of your job after people start hating you (think orange) so you might as well get on board or if you think you’re right, buy some puts.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 16, 2019 16:18:14 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Sept 16, 2019 16:33:27 GMT -8
Paying higher taxes would not be so bad if we had a government smart enough to use the money wisely and not throw it away with terrible decision making, poorly managed departments, and wasteful spending.
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 16, 2019 20:19:30 GMT -8
Wyden’s proposal doesn’t stand a chance. That said, blowing a whole in the budget is a specialty of conservatives. How do we fix it. Doing nothing isn’t an option.
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Post by hledgard on Sept 17, 2019 4:59:43 GMT -8
I am with JD ! !
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Post by therealmercel on Sept 17, 2019 16:00:20 GMT -8
Hledgard, Sponge....you’re assembling quite the team J.D. You’re drafting worse than the San Diego Chargers picking Ryan Leaf... Lol
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 19, 2019 9:47:53 GMT -8
Paying higher taxes would not be so bad if we had a government smart enough to use the money wisely and not throw it away with terrible decision making, poorly managed departments, and wasteful spending. If frogs had wings, they wouldn't bump their asses hopping.
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