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Post by rmhe1999 on Dec 6, 2019 6:43:33 GMT -8
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Post by socal Film Composer on Dec 6, 2019 6:56:56 GMT -8
Thanks for opening up the thread - yes here we go! Strong jobs # means a strong consumer and more sales congrats longs - it's been a wild but very profitable ride. The China trade news starting to fade away with each new "bad" news data point on a stalled deal is a relief - nice to see the markets shrug this off. It appears the trade war is affecting China more than the US economy directly. I'm cautiously optimistic even with tariffs AAPL can continue to maneuver around some manufacturing for the next few iPhone cycles.
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2019 7:03:41 GMT -8
rmhe1999 - Thanks for opening us up 👍
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2019 7:09:02 GMT -8
Thanks for opening up the thread - yes here we go! Strong jobs # means a strong consumer and more sales congrats longs - it's been a wild but very profitable ride. The China trade news starting to fade away with each new "bad" news data point on a stalled deal is a relief - nice to see the markets shrug this off. It appears the trade war is affecting Chine more than the US economy directly. I'm cautiously optimistic even with tariffs AAPL can continue to maneuver around some manufacturing for the next few iPhone cycles. +1 to everything you said. I'm hoping this trade deal thingy becomes so stale that the market continues to keep shrugging it off more and more. Kinda like the Brexit deal volatility settled after many ups and downs. Then NOBODY frikkin' cared. I know it's not the same thing as the trade deal but when something gets stale fewer people start giving a shi* about it.
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2019 7:10:16 GMT -8
270 will call for a BIG colorful WHEEE! We're at 269.35 as I write this. New HOD and ATH!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 6, 2019 7:31:36 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $271.00 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (4PM CENTRAL)
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 6, 2019 8:39:45 GMT -8
Just a few cents more to peek through the $270 level. Or pass it by, and aim for a closing near $271.56!!!
There's $270.00
Thanks AAPL
(EDIT: $100 here, $100 there, and pretty soon you're talking about a huge difference in share price. Thanks for the correction dreamRaj! FWIW, if you look at the current 10 year chart on iOS Stocks, AAPL is just shy of a 10x increase over that time period. $27.81-> )
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2019 8:43:16 GMT -8
Just a few cents more to peek through the $270 level. Or pass it by, and aim for a closing near $ 1271.56. There's $270.00 Thanks AAPL FIFY
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2019 8:49:10 GMT -8
WHEEEE
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 6, 2019 9:48:46 GMT -8
What an amazing day for AAPL! What an amazing jobs report for the nation!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 6, 2019 9:51:06 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Dec 6, 2019 9:55:46 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $269.35 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (4PM CENTRAL)
Yep, that damn Tim Cook. If he only knew what the heck he was doing. Very impressive rally today.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 6, 2019 9:58:31 GMT -8
I see $300 per share by earning report next month, I hope.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 6, 2019 10:03:04 GMT -8
Not to be adding unwanted ingredients to the punchbowl, but there were reports at the end of November that iPhone sales declined 10% over the past year. I get that services are growing and I feel like the company is on better footing than it was before and I an still optimistic about the longer term. But given this kind of decline, is anyone worried about another December surprise?
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 6, 2019 10:22:09 GMT -8
Not to be adding unwanted ingredients to the punchbowl, but there were reports at the end of November that iPhone sales declined 10% over the past year. I get that services are growing and I feel like the company is on better footing than it was before and I an still optimistic about the longer term. But given this kind of decline, is anyone worried about another December surprise?
not really worried about a bad negative surprise (like missing guidance...... hopefully they learned their lesson last year!)
but worried that expectations have gone too far.... i.e. that the current optimism requires a 'positive surprise' if you will, and just achieving guidance would be a disappointment....
i play either way though.... continue to close swing trades at ath's, keeping long-term position intact
still missing the ultimate contrarian indicator.... sponge coming back and saying he bought at 270/280/300 or whatever
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 6, 2019 10:30:38 GMT -8
Not to be adding unwanted ingredients to the punchbowl, but there were reports at the end of November that iPhone sales declined 10% over the past year. I get that services are growing and I feel like the company is on better footing than it was before and I an still optimistic about the longer term. But given this kind of decline, is anyone worried about another December surprise? Murphy’s Law is always in session.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 6, 2019 11:16:18 GMT -8
I see $300 per share by earning report next month, I hope. That would be another 10% from here, in just under 2 months time. While possible, does that seem likely? It sounds a little euphoric to me, unless supported by a lot of positive news. If it's just positive speculation, that seems like too quick of a jump on top of the move over the recent few months. $285-290 would be nice without being too euphoric. Add in the extra $10 if some other marketwide wall of worry item gets closed out or minimized. That's the funny thing of reading stories a couple days old, where I just read one by a Macro guy that the consumer spending and especially jobs were showing the tariffs slowing things down, and now 2 days later we see job growth increasing much more than expected. Ups and downs, for a variety of reasons. That's the only constant. It would be nice to see another run at $271. Jan '21 330's and Jan '22 380's got to around $10 again. Tempting to write some covered calls, for a portion of those I want to sell in that timeframe anyways.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 6, 2019 11:18:05 GMT -8
The Motley Fool has How This Executive Departure Turned Apple Into a Growth Stock. It's basically a Jonny Ive hit job as evidenced by the click-bait title. I have yet to develop the enthusiasm for the advent of foldable devices that the author has, but at least part of that is that AAPL has enabled me to take the more expensive "right tool for the job" approach, rather than being limited to "one size fits all."
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 6, 2019 11:20:47 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2019 13:02:45 GMT -8
it can go higher for sure but not 'easily' there better be a trade deal by dec 15th..... or at least exemption for iphones if tariffs go into effect, otherwise 270 is not the hurdle we'll worry about btw, did your order for jan 280s fill? i assume not since aapl had to go lower for that, but if it did congrats on nice bounce
Hey, nope. AAPL would've had to fall to 154 for that. But I do have 100 of the Jan 280s. When we'd last chatted about this some 10 days ago?, these calls fell to 2.80 or so and when AAPL did a rebound, I bought 100 for 31K. It's getting too risky to hold them now. When we hit 268 again and they cross $3.10, I'll sell them off and add to my Jun 2020 300 position. Hey Walter - I just sold those 100 Jan 280s at $3.60 for a profit of 5K. Their upside wasn't going to be a lot from here on but otoh, if the stock were to go down even for a day or two, they'd fall like a rock!
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 6, 2019 13:14:41 GMT -8
That big Wheee was for crossing 270. But closing above that at an ATH calls for a BIGGER Wheee. So here goes... WHEEEE !!!!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 6, 2019 13:22:05 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$271.00All Time Highest NOVEMBER 19, 2019 intraday 23,205,496
shares traded today AAPL ALL TIME HIGHEST CLOSE!$270.71aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/AAPL market CAP. +1.202 TRILLION AAPL ALL TIME HIGH market CAP. +1.202 TRILLION TODAY +$1.202 TRILLION
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 6, 2019 13:53:26 GMT -8
I see $300 per share by earning report next month, I hope. That would be another 10% from here, in just under 2 months time. While possible, does that seem likely? It sounds a little euphoric to me, unless supported by a lot of positive news. If it's just positive speculation, that seems like too quick of a jump on top of the move over the recent few months. $285-290 would be nice without being too euphoric. Add in the extra $10 if some other marketwide wall of worry item gets closed out or minimized. That's the funny thing of reading stories a couple days old, where I just read one by a Macro guy that the consumer spending and especially jobs were showing the tariffs slowing things down, and now 2 days later we see job growth increasing much more than expected. Ups and downs, for a variety of reasons. That's the only constant. It would be nice to see another run at $271. Jan '21 330's and Jan '22 380's got to around $10 again. Tempting to write some covered calls, for a portion of those I want to sell in that timeframe anyways. Mostly just a wishful thinking. But I have seen an analyst a couple of days ago give a $300 target which may be enough of a trigger. And then there is always sentiment, on the positive side.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 6, 2019 14:18:25 GMT -8
That would be another 10% from here, in just under 2 months time. While possible, does that seem likely? It sounds a little euphoric to me, unless supported by a lot of positive news. If it's just positive speculation, that seems like too quick of a jump on top of the move over the recent few months. $285-290 would be nice without being too euphoric. Add in the extra $10 if some other marketwide wall of worry item gets closed out or minimized. That's the funny thing of reading stories a couple days old, where I just read one by a Macro guy that the consumer spending and especially jobs were showing the tariffs slowing things down, and now 2 days later we see job growth increasing much more than expected. Ups and downs, for a variety of reasons. That's the only constant. It would be nice to see another run at $271. Jan '21 330's and Jan '22 380's got to around $10 again. Tempting to write some covered calls, for a portion of those I want to sell in that timeframe anyways. Mostly just a wishful thinking. But I have seen an analyst a couple of days ago give a $300 target which may be enough of a trigger. And then there is always sentiment, on the positive side. I think $300 will happen within 12 months (analysts targets are generally for 12 months), and think the $300-$340 range is likely. From $271, a 25% gain is $338.75, which is why I am considering writing Jan '21 330 covered calls, now priced a little above $10. If the trend were to continue, that would be fairly certain, closing towards the top of that a year from now, or at January Leaps expiration. But hitting $300 so quickly could very well lead to a retracement quickly. Likewise, there is some chance that the market will take a hit within the next year. Whatever the probability, whether that's 10%, 30% or even 50%, it's on the board in some fashion. We'll see. For those only looking 5-10+ years into the future, it doesn't matter much as long as Apple keeps on a good trend. For those playing with the market, or looking to sell (or buy) some shares in the next 0-3 years, it seems worthwhile to keep an open mind to the possibility of things not always going swimmingly. I've been hit too many times, often by things that shouldn't have blindsided me. While the majority of my shares are going to ride for a while, a few are going to be sold, and a few are going to have covered calls written against them. Locking in a maximum additional gain of 25% in a year isn't much of a hardship, while a partial hedge on some of our shares against a downturn will feel a bit better if a rough dip occurs. It's hard to think that way on a solid up day like today, and yet it was one of the major things on my mind while stockpiling a quarter cord on the doorstep, before the next relatively minor storm.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 6, 2019 14:26:25 GMT -8
My after hours feed said AAPL dropped by $17.87. WTF?
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Post by firestorm on Dec 6, 2019 14:28:33 GMT -8
My after hours feed said AAPL dropped by $17.87. WTF? Back to normal, but I almost had a heart attack. Fake news, folks, a hoax.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 6, 2019 14:32:35 GMT -8
Hey, nope. AAPL would've had to fall to 154 for that. But I do have 100 of the Jan 280s. When we'd last chatted about this some 10 days ago?, these calls fell to 2.80 or so and when AAPL did a rebound, I bought 100 for 31K. It's getting too risky to hold them now. When we hit 268 again and they cross $3.10, I'll sell them off and add to my Jun 2020 300 position. Hey Walter - I just sold those 100 Jan 280s at $3.60 for a profit of 5K. Their upside wasn't going to be a lot from here on but otoh, if the stock were to go down even for a day or two, they'd fall like a rock! well done dreamraj! i agree these are getting quite binary... only way to appreciate is if it rapidly moves past $280 (which would likely require positive trade deal resolution)... too much risk of going to zero from either a hiccup in trade by dec 15th, or even just staying in place / taking a rest i too made some swing trade money this week: 10 grand (bought june 250s on tue, sold today)... need a new RV!!
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 6, 2019 14:38:29 GMT -8
My after hours feed said AAPL dropped by $17.87. WTF? Back to normal, but I almost had a heart attack. Fake news, folks, a hoax.
these things happen from time to time
monster close above $270... i did *not* expect this fast a rebound on tuesday! (finished swing trade faster than expected)
cheers to the longs!
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 6, 2019 14:56:30 GMT -8
Not to be adding unwanted ingredients to the punchbowl, but there were reports at the end of November that iPhone sales declined 10% over the past year. I get that services are growing and I feel like the company is on better footing than it was before and I an still optimistic about the longer term. But given this kind of decline, is anyone worried about another December surprise? I think that in addition to the services story, the positives around wearables with the Watch 5 and AirPods have more people believing that there is life in the business beyond the iPhone. In addition, the better than expected sales of the iPhone 11, especially when combined with what should be a surge in phone sales with the advent of 5G, has allayed some of the fears about what the future there holds. The entire tech industry is transitioning to a services paradigm, and Mr. Cook has handled this transition extremely well, IMHO. There are always bumps in the road, but Apple seems well-positioned.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 6, 2019 19:32:27 GMT -8
Hey Walter - I just sold those 100 Jan 280s at $3.60 for a profit of 5K. Their upside wasn't going to be a lot from here on but otoh, if the stock were to go down even for a day or two, they'd fall like a rock! well done dreamraj! i agree these are getting quite binary... only way to appreciate is if it rapidly moves past $280 (which would likely require positive trade deal resolution)... too much risk of going to zero from either a hiccup in trade by dec 15th, or even just staying in place / taking a rest i too made some swing trade money this week: 10 grand (bought june 250s on tue, sold today)... need a new RV!! Hmmm It's all risk/reward, which differs for each, but I would have been tempted to hold onto those Jan 280's for another week. I'd give 50/50 odds on a run to $280 next week, and that 10 point gain would likely add 8 points to the options, for a potential $85k gain instead of $5k. Then again, with those odds, there's a half chance of staying flat or going down, so one could sell half, and hold the rest. Oh well, I'm not the one with the options, and I lost (and gained) a lot by taking on more risk back when I used them more. Happy Weekend all!
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