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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 9, 2019 6:58:51 GMT -8
Good morning everyone!
This past week was fun! Along with volatility came some solid "WHEEE" days. For most of us who are super long, the ups and down aren't too bothersome. But for some of us (like Walter and me) who, apart from being long, also like to dabble in daily or swing trades, this volatility makes a difference and we try to make a few extra bucks. Why not?
8 minutes after open, AAPL is down a bit at $269.50 (-$1.21). Let's see how the day unfolds.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 9, 2019 8:46:57 GMT -8
Good morning everyone! This past week was fun! Along with volatility came some solid "WHEEE" days. For most of us who are super long, the ups and down aren't too bothersome. But for some of us (like Walter and me) who, apart from being long, also like to dabble in daily or swing trades, this volatility makes a difference and we try to make a few extra bucks. Why not? 8 minutes after open, AAPL is down a bit at $269.50 (-$1.21). Let's see how the day unfolds.
so far your and my decision to close the swing trades on friday is proving right!
aapl now down almost 4 bucks! ...in an otherwise flat market, mind you
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 9, 2019 8:49:32 GMT -8
I can confirm this issue!!!
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 9, 2019 8:52:07 GMT -8
From Friday's discussion... Hey Walter - I just sold those 100 Jan 280s at $3.60 for a profit of 5K. Their upside wasn't going to be a lot from here on but otoh, if the stock were to go down even for a day or two, they'd fall like a rock! well done dreamraj! i agree these are getting quite binary... only way to appreciate is if it rapidly moves past $280 (which would likely require positive trade deal resolution)... too much risk of going to zero from either a hiccup in trade by dec 15th, or even just staying in place / taking a rest i too made some swing trade money this week: 10 grand (bought june 250s on tue, sold today)... need a new RV!! Hmmm It's all risk/reward, which differs for each, but I would have been tempted to hold onto those Jan 280's for another week. I'd give 50/50 odds on a run to $280 next week, and that 10 point gain would likely add 8 points to the options, for a potential $85k gain instead of $5k.Then again, with those odds, there's a half chance of staying flat or going down, so one could sell half, and hold the rest. Oh well, I'm not the one with the options, and I lost (and gained) a lot by taking on more risk back when I used them more. Happy Weekend all! hmmm.... ...first, dreamraj bought them for $3.10 not $1 (last post on page 1.... he said he bought 100 for 31k)... i think 5 grand on 30k is ok in a week, but i honestly prefer my 10 grand on 30k (coincidentally same amount)... i bought june 250s on tue, sold on fri up 35%..... otm options are a fun piece of explosive, but the dynamite might have a short fuse... important to run for the hills before they explode in your face ...second, why the hypotheticals? if you believe it and give 50/50 odds, you should buy the option at $3.10 and sell at $8 next week (50% chance to lose $3.10 and 50% chance to gain $4.90) what difference does it make that raj already had the option? endowment effect? i sometimes look at my more risky positions and ask, 'if i didn't own this today, would i buy it?' if the answer is 'HELL NO' then it's time to sell! ...edit to add.... basically, i think good job dreamraj for controlling risk! if it runs to $280 next week, we have other positions to gain from... but if it stayed in place or went lower that's $10k-$20k gone... a nice rv! Hi 4aapl - I've been following the Jan 280s for a long time now. In case your 50% chance of AAPL going to 280 this week were to come true, they would still not go up by 8 points but a max by $4. Otoh, they will start bleeding rather quickly if AAPL were to fall under 265 and, like Walter said, any bad news about the Dec 15th trade deal will give the calls a quick death. I've suffered many times for waiting too long to sell so I'm learning the trick of selling sooner and making lesser profits and in turn waiting for a lower re-entry point or simply rolling over to calls of a later date. I have 40 Jun 300s and I'll now look into adding to that position.
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Post by lulli on Dec 9, 2019 9:39:49 GMT -8
so far your and my decision to close the swing trades on friday is proving right!
aapl now down almost 4 bucks! ...in an otherwise flat market, mind you ... and it is accompanied by a rise in volume that is quite significant and persistent. I googled for 5 min to see if I could see what could have caused this, but didn't find anything. The regularity of the fall, with little failed-reversal spikes every dollar or so may hint at some algorithm that got triggered by the all time high after a week. But I really don't know anything about this stuff. I am tempted to buy some Feb 2020 options now, with a stop-loss right below 264.5
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 9, 2019 9:55:24 GMT -8
Does anybody have any input or insight about NIO - the Tesla of China?
I've been keeping an eye on it for a few months now. It's fallen steadily from $7 to 5 to 3 to $2. I bought 1000 shares at $2 after which it went down to 1.30 and it's back above 2 now.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 9, 2019 11:57:06 GMT -8
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Dec 9, 2019 13:09:49 GMT -8
Does anybody have any input or insight about NIO - the Tesla of China? I've been keeping an eye on it for a few months now. It's fallen steadily from $7 to 5 to 3 to $2. I bought 1000 shares at $2 after which it went down to 1.30 and it's back above 2 now.
no, but genuinely curious: why were you compelled to invest in a stock that you know little about? (assuming you know little about it.... which seems reasonable given your question to a bunch of apple traders who don't know nio from ion... and a bunch of whom lambast tim cook for building iphones in china)
do you hold tsla as well?
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 9, 2019 14:09:33 GMT -8
Came across NIO when I was looking to invest in TSLA. Just one of those things where you don't mind putting in a little money into something that's hot and happening at the time and see if you get lucky down the road.
My order to buy 1000 shares of TSLA at 150 didn't get filled. I didn't care after that.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 9, 2019 14:47:09 GMT -8
I couldn't find a single story (published before the open) that explained Apple's drop today. A few Monday evening quarterbacks attributed it to trade anxiety. Mixed news on the price target front (source: Marketbeat): I've never heard of China Renaissance Securities. Funny how the boutique firms with buy ratings never seem to get in the news, just the sells. I hadn't heard about Citi's $300 price target. Maybe that was why Apple popped on Friday. *** Also an interesting story in the vein of what I posted on Saturday: Apple's privacy features in Safari are shaking up the advertising market If you use Safari you are frustrating advertisers.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 9, 2019 14:55:52 GMT -8
aapl now down almost 4 bucks! ...in an otherwise flat market, mind you ... and it is accompanied by a rise in volume that is quite significant and persistent. I googled for 5 min to see if I could see what could have caused this, but didn't find anything. The regularity of the fall, with little failed-reversal spikes every dollar or so may hint at some algorithm that got triggered by the all time high after a week. But I really don't know anything about this stuff. I am tempted to buy some Feb 2020 options now, with a stop-loss right below 264.5 At least one article is saying AAPL would be the worst off if progress isn't made on a trade deal. If true, that makes AAPL a great way to bet on trade deal issues, especially since it's so big. Whether they are selling shares they have, or shorting blindly or shorting while buying the S&P. There's lots of possibilities. It's interesting to see such a relative peak of open interest on the Jan '20's at 260, with nearly 120k puts, and a bit more calls. If a synthetic position for the full volume (unlikely), that means someone is looking to take ownership of 12M shares at that expiration. Ahhh, not the best day for AAPL, but better than it was, and still positive compared to Thursday's closing. But sometimes you just don't worry about all of that, and instead spend a few hours on the slopes. FWIW, Apple needs to allow geofencing on FaceID, so I can go straight to typing in a passcode since it doesn't like ski goggles, and won't even try to learn an alternate view of your face when they are on. Just a busy mid-week day at the slopes, enjoying the view: Attachments:
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Post by silkstone on Dec 9, 2019 18:24:50 GMT -8
... and it is accompanied by a rise in volume that is quite significant and persistent. I googled for 5 min to see if I could see what could have caused this, but didn't find anything. The regularity of the fall, with little failed-reversal spikes every dollar or so may hint at some algorithm that got triggered by the all time high after a week. But I really don't know anything about this stuff. I am tempted to buy some Feb 2020 options now, with a stop-loss right below 264.5 At least one article is saying AAPL would be the worst off if progress isn't made on a trade deal. If true, that makes AAPL a great way to bet on trade deal issues, especially since it's so big. Whether they are selling shares they have, or shorting blindly or shorting while buying the S&P. There's lots of possibilities. It's interesting to see such a relative peak of open interest on the Jan '20's at 260, with nearly 120k puts, and a bit more calls. If a synthetic position for the full volume (unlikely), that means someone is looking to take ownership of 12M shares at that expiration. Ahhh, not the best day for AAPL, but better than it was, and still positive compared to Thursday's closing. But sometimes you just don't worry about all of that, and instead spend a few hours on the slopes. FWIW, Apple needs to allow geofencing on FaceID, so I can go straight to typing in a passcode since it doesn't like ski goggles, and won't even try to learn an alternate view of your face when they are on. Just a busy mid-week day at the slopes, enjoying the view: Where’s are all the moguls ? It looks like you’re on the bunny hill 😀
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 9, 2019 18:53:13 GMT -8
Thanks, Tim Cook.
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Post by silkstone on Dec 10, 2019 3:54:58 GMT -8
Thanks, Tim Cook. Yep, thanks Tim.... all the CNBC gurus keep saying how Apple has pulled the entire market higher, or maybe it was the 100 tweets from the golf cart this wknd that did it ?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Dec 10, 2019 4:23:44 GMT -8
Thanks, Tim Cook. Yep, thanks Tim.... all the CNBC gurus keep saying how Apple has pulled the entire market higher, or maybe it was the 100 tweets from the golf cart this wknd that did it ? Can you name the one person responsible for Apples manufacturing being located in communist China?
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Post by silkstone on Dec 10, 2019 5:55:05 GMT -8
Yep, thanks Tim.... all the CNBC gurus keep saying how Apple has pulled the entire market higher, or maybe it was the 100 tweets from the golf cart this wknd that did it ? Can you name the one person responsible for Apples manufacturing being located in communist China? Not sure but the idea prolly began in the mind of Steve Jobs with Tim Cooks input as well. I’m pretty sure it was done out of necessity. How many places in the world was it possible to manufacture, package and ship tens of millions of iPhones back in 2007 ?
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Post by macster on Dec 10, 2019 7:54:30 GMT -8
Just a busy mid-week day at the slopes, enjoying the view: O my Gawd it looks delightful. Wish I was back there. Pretty normal PA late fall here. Vail bought out Peak Resorts so we can now buy the Epic pass. Local hill started making snow a few days ago then comes rain. Should be open for good in a week or 2. Roundup Mt Resort was open two weekend back in november. Problem we have here besides getting open is the grooming which is lacking. They groom but not like the smooth consistent corduroy you are used to that makes dancing down the groomers a joy at this age. Looks like Diamond Peak
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 10, 2019 8:47:17 GMT -8
Just a busy mid-week day at the slopes, enjoying the view: O my Gawd it looks delightful. Wish I was back there. Pretty normal PA late fall here. Vail bought out Peak Resorts so we can now buy the Epic pass. Local hill started making snow a few days ago then comes rain. Should be open for good in a week or 2. Roundup Mt Resort was open two weekend back in november. Problem we have here besides getting open is the grooming which is lacking. They groom but not like the smooth consistent corduroy you are used to that makes dancing down the groomers a joy at this age. Looks like Diamond Peak Yep, Diamond Peak...just a blue run, but some amazing views. It claims it has the best view of the lake, but Homewood and Heavenly give some great views too. Luckily our passes get us 4 days at Homewood too, along with around 20 other places. They just opened a week early, after a big storm just before Thanksgiving and another bit this weekend. Both were pretty dense and sometimes rain down low, but nice stuff up top. Yesterday I was enjoying some light powder in a bowl right off the top, whereas just 500 feet lower the stuff that wasn't groomed was too heavy, especially after a few freeze/thaw cycles. I met a Dad and his son that were new to the area and about to have their first day at Diamond Peak, and then a guy in the 70+ club (he said it was online) that drove in from Yerrington, who this year was going to DP instead of Mammoth because of the change over to the Epic pass there, and less discounts for older skiers. At DP, his season pass even as a non-local was something like $125. I hear DP does a great job on grooming, and they do well at making snow too. It helps that our local fees can subsidize them, so they don't have to worry much about bad years. They have grown their usage a lot in the 12 years we have been here, and have plans for a little expansion but the forest service doesn't have someone in place to approve these things, so I hear. Hmmm, I don't really see how I can even tangentially connect this to Apple or AAPL, other than my iPhone 11 didn't have a problem with the temps just below freezing. The zoomed out picture did make it look a little flatter of a trail. I think it helped zap the moguls too, which haven't been there for some years now. DP just doesn't cater to that crown much, though it has put in some huge (20-30'?) jumps. But I think that's more to segregate some of the traffic.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Dec 10, 2019 13:06:55 GMT -8
Can you name the one person responsible for Apples manufacturing being located in communist China? Not sure but the idea prolly began in the mind of Steve Jobs with Tim Cooks input as well. I’m pretty sure it was done out of necessity. How many places in the world was it possible to manufacture, package and ship tens of millions of iPhones back in 2007 ? As I've said before, I believe that Tim Cook has excelled in many ways with the running of Apple. And I understand that moving Apples manufacturing to China while Steve Jobs was still with us may have been a wise decision for many reasons, but the last few years more information has come to light about the dangers of dealing with China. Once that information starts to be available, the risk starts to outweigh the reward of staying there. The longer Tim Cook remains in China, the less respect I have for his leadership, not that my respect matters to anyone. I would guess that all Tim needs to do is contact Foxconn and direct them to draw-up a plan to start the relocation of it's manufacturing to say, Japan or South Korea or Vietnam or maybe even Mexico. India may be a possible choice as he has already announce a move of some production there. I've already read many of the stories about the advantages for manufacturing in China with the skilled workforce and engineering skills available, but those skills are only a few decades old and could be developed elsewhere. China does not have a lock on those skills, there are other choices. Want to help the people of China, then maybe collapsing their economy by relocating to another nation and forcing a change in the leadership could once again make China a good place to do business someday. Remember Hong Kong, how is Tim Cook going to handle that mess when it finaly explodes in revolution? How will the world view Apple and how will it effect AAPL? There will be only one person to blame for Apple being in the center of the mess, Tim Cook. Has Tim Cook made mistakes before? The GTAT fiasco comes to mind. Yes, I know that GTAT was cooking the books, but why didn't Apple look more closely at who they were dealing with? After all, they were betting that years production of the iPhone on the availability and quality of the glass. Had Apple not been able to recover with Corning the result would have been divesting to say the least. There were a lot of people that trusted and invested in GTAT simply because Apple trusted them. That mistake cost me a cool $100K, plus the opening of my eyes that Apples leadership team are not always perfect, after all, they are only human. Want to know more about China, then read this: Why and How the U.S. Should Stop Financing China’s Bad ActorsI think you'll find this information unbiased and truthful. After reading it, you tell me if you agree about Apple getting out of China.
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Post by silkstone on Dec 11, 2019 7:10:57 GMT -8
Not sure but the idea prolly began in the mind of Steve Jobs with Tim Cooks input as well. I’m pretty sure it was done out of necessity. How many places in the world was it possible to manufacture, package and ship tens of millions of iPhones back in 2007 ? As I've said before, I believe that Tim Cook has excelled in many ways with the running of Apple. And I understand that moving Apples manufacturing to China while Steve Jobs was still with us may have been a wise decision for many reasons, but the last few years more information has come to light about the dangers of dealing with China. Once that information starts to be available, the risk starts to outweigh the reward of staying there. The longer Tim Cook remains in China, the less respect I have for his leadership, not that my respect matters to anyone. I would guess that all Tim needs to do is contact Foxconn and direct them to draw-up a plan to start the relocation of it's manufacturing to say, Japan or South Korea or Vietnam or maybe even Mexico. India may be a possible choice as he has already announce a move of some production there. I've already read many of the stories about the advantages for manufacturing in China with the skilled workforce and engineering skills available, but those skills are only a few decades old and could be developed elsewhere. China does not have a lock on those skills, there are other choices. Want to help the people of China, then maybe collapsing their economy by relocating to another nation and forcing a change in the leadership could once again make China a good place to do business someday. Remember Hong Kong, how is Tim Cook going to handle that mess when it finaly explodes in revolution? How will the world view Apple and how will it effect AAPL? There will be only one person to blame for Apple being in the center of the mess, Tim Cook. Has Tim Cook made mistakes before? The GTAT fiasco comes to mind. Yes, I know that GTAT was cooking the books, but why didn't Apple look more closely at who they were dealing with? After all, they were betting that years production of the iPhone on the availability and quality of the glass. Had Apple not been able to recover with Corning the result would have been divesting to say the least. There were a lot of people that trusted and invested in GTAT simply because Apple trusted them. That mistake cost me a cool $100K, plus the opening of my eyes that Apples leadership team are not always perfect, after all, they are only human. Want to know more about China, then read this: Why and How the U.S. Should Stop Financing China’s Bad ActorsI think you'll find this information unbiased and truthful. After reading it, you tell me if you agree about Apple getting out of China. I’m glad Trump has taken on the Chinese. It’s obviously something that has been needed for a long time. I hope the administration continues to put the squeeze on the chinese and eventually gains the needed concessions. As an Apple investor, I’m happy we’ve been able to make gains and I hope we don’t get penalized for doing business in China. In spite of everything it is the largest market in the world 🌎 and American companies need to be there.
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