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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 13, 2019 5:03:21 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 13, 2019 5:43:31 GMT -8
Thank you dreamRaj for an excellent Friday 13th opening. Looks like a great day to make some money. Shares and sterling leap on trade and Brexit boostsWhy Wall Street’s most bullish strategist says his S&P 500 forecast is probably too low
"His upbeat view is based on a strongish economy and a Federal Reserve that is “clearly committed” to seeing inflation move higher, which means the economy may run above potential growth for a while. Then there is the historical data that shows the years that follow 20% or more tend to average returns of 14.3%, says Emanuel. And if the rumored trade deal materializes, it means the S&P may reach his upper year-end target of 3,950 “particularly if there is upside to the deal being ‘bigger’ than the market expects,” he said."
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 13, 2019 6:49:33 GMT -8
ATH at 273.57. Just $1.43 more to go for me to post that big and colorful WHEEE
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 13, 2019 7:07:40 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $275.00 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (3 PM CENTRAL)
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 13, 2019 8:38:21 GMT -8
Watch and AirpodsA week or so ago when I'd opened the thread, I was ecstatic to mention that next year there's a possibility of seeing revenues of ~$20 Bln from frikkin' headphones!! Here's news that it's happening! AirPods to hit quarterly sales of $4B, surpassing peak iPod salesWe knew that Watch was going to get big and bigger. But I don't think anybody imagined that Airpods would be big enough to move the needle! What is amazing to me this year is all of the low-end competition on the wireless headphone market. Pick a store, any store. It seems like there is pretty good odds that they have a set of cheap, wireless ear buds. And it's an easy bet to what color they are. It's so frequent that I loose track. In getting tires put onto the minivan, I went into Carson City a couple times this week and hit up a bunch of the stores I'm not often in. I'm pretty sure Home Depot had them. AutoZone had them, and maybe even O'Reily's. I think Smiths food and drug had them. I'm sure Walmart and Kohls had them. Really, any store that had even a few impulse buy electronics in it had them. OTOH, Costco was probably the only one with the real deal. There's reviews out there (CNBC?) of a bunch of the cheap knockoffs. I was given a pair off of Amazon to review, though it was black and didn't look like AirPods. They do ok, but I'm not a normal headphone wearer so not the best for a real analysis. With all this out there it seems like it would be a problem for AirPods. But it seems like this is the very low end market, in the $20 range, and I haven't stumbled across a bunch of things close to the AirPod's price. Instead of this hurting AirPod sales, it seems likely that this is a different market segment that wouldn't take away sales, while possibly also a reminder to those thinking about AirPods....some free marketing! That might be the optimistic view, but it is strange that there isn't much aiming at 20-50% off the AirPod price. Instead, the competition's cost is either cheap cheap, or roughly equivalent. I was thinking we'd have a market-wide boost today, due to a little less uncertainty. Instead, I'll just have to be happy with the currently $2 boost in AAPL. Thanks AAPL!!!
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 13, 2019 10:41:20 GMT -8
ATH at 273.57. Just $1.43 more to go for me to post that big and colorful WHEEE Not crossed (yet) but at least touched. 275!! So here it comes... WHHEEEEE !!!!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 13, 2019 11:14:20 GMT -8
Nice work AAPL!
A P/E at 23.10, and an RSI currently of 68. A new ATH!
It seems like the big worry condensed to the iPhone being a fad that could easily swing to a different smartphone is shrinking as time goes on, services increase, and the ecosystem in general keeps doing well. There are some deficiencies around, such as many of the new electronic smart home things working with Alexa and not with Apple's solutions. That may be the toughest area, where Apple tries to manage the ecosystem, and by doing so puts up cost, time, and quality roadblocks. In the long run, especially with security and quality, it may be the best route. But in the shorter run, such as a $10 smart plug to control the xmas lights, or sub-$30 security cameras, it makes it a little difficult to get traction.
I just bought a Wyze security camera for $24. I had been looking at it at Amazon, where it was highly rated, but then it was sitting in Home Depot for the same price, giving an easy return option if it didn't work out. I set one up a few years ago as a snow cam while we were gone over the holidays. But now, with higher resolution and night vision, it has a lot of uses for home security, and I'll likely buy a few. But, while it has both Android and iOS apps, on the box it just says "works with alexa". That might not matter much, but if I don't know that (I don't, and this box went the Apple route of being clean and with not much info, whereas it really needs more info), then most people won't either. IMO Apple needs to go big here on compatibility, even if it's to just add a "status check" for devices or something simple like that.
It's snowing outside and AAPL is up while setting a new ATH. Nice!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2019 11:46:00 GMT -8
CNBC had a good interview with Larry Kudlow today laying out what's being hammered out. Definitely worth a watch when CNBC posts the video. I'd remind everyone that everything in Asia happens slowly, so have patience, grasshoppers. I do believe China has been taking advantage of the USA for decades because no president, Republican or Democrat, saw any political benefit to standing up to them. But when we're in the 300's next year, we can all clink champagne glasses. CNBC just said Apple up is 74% for the year, the best Apple year of the 2010's decade...
Ugh, just as I feared, Tim is more concerned with social justice nonsense in Apple's programming instead of broad-based appeal. This pro-immigrant stuff will go over like a lead balloon with about 67% of potential viewers (See: the UK election). I wonder what Apple's US-born employees - who fear being replaced by H1-B's - feel about producing this. Or have they already been replaced so there's nobody left to complain? Watch and AirpodsA week or so ago when I'd opened the thread, I was ecstatic to mention that next year there's a possibility of seeing revenues of ~$20 Bln from frikkin' headphones!! Here's news that it's happening! AirPods to hit quarterly sales of $4B, surpassing peak iPod salesWe knew that Watch was going to get big and bigger. But I don't think anybody imagined that Airpods would be big enough to move the needle! What is amazing to me this year is all of the low-end competition on the wireless headphone market. I confess to buying Samsung's ear buds, mostly because I don't like the looks of the Apple buds, especially in white (the Samsung buds are black). Apple, please stop being arrogant and offer other colors. You do not know what's best for me, and beta male white is not best for me.
Also, noise cancellation, which didn't exist in the first Apple iteration IIRC. The Samsung buds have good sound quality, but I regularly have one of them go silent for some unknown reason, and have to let them fully discharge and then recharge to get it to come back. Annoying AF. But I love them in the gym, especially the annoying loud overhead music gym I go to. If Apple offers the pros in black, I'd probably buy them today. BTW, I never use my Apple Watch, mostly because it does everything inferior to the iPhone (especially reception).
***
ATH.
Biggest call wall is 272. Second highest is 275. Friday dip, here we come?
300, here we come? 285.72 is where we break a pre-split 2000, a number I consider the ultimate vindication of myself and the other perma-longs. A lot of people laughed at James Altucher when he predicted a $1000 AAPL, and then breezily said, eventually, $2000. I told the family accountant this years ago and she believed me. Looking forward to reminding her of the $2000 prediction if/when we hit 286...
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 13, 2019 12:42:56 GMT -8
300, here we come? 285.72 is where we break a pre-split 2000, a number I consider the ultimate vindication of myself and the other perma-longs. A lot of people laughed at James Altucher when he predicted a $1000 AAPL, and then breezily said, eventually, $2000. I told the family accountant this years ago and she believed me. Looking forward to reminding her of the $2000 prediction if/when we hit 286...
Short timer! Even going peak to potentially peak, AAPL has done fairly well. I believe the peak in 2000 was right around tax day, at something like $151.38? Yahoo says March 23rd (~$150.36), splitting twice at x2 and once at x7 ways makes that their daily high of $5.37. $5.37 to $275 is roughly a 51.2 multiple (gain of 5020%!). Annualizing for 20 years gives a 21.75% annualized rate of return, from the year 2000 peak! Thanks AAPL, and Apple! And it broke $275.00!!! Onto the last 10-20 minute action going into a weekend. How bullish are the investors and computers? (can't believe I did this all the first time from memory that was pretty close, but forgot the June 2000 split)
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2019 12:51:15 GMT -8
Quick call wall sitch. Close >275 = uber-bullish.
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Post by nwjade on Dec 13, 2019 12:52:12 GMT -8
AAPL going to $300 until recently wasn't such an in the cards widely held opinion. My my, what a year we've had! Remember back when we were in approximately the $150's pre 7-1 split and $300 started to be put out there and how high that number seemed? As I recall Brian White was first with the $300 price target followed by Jim Cramer. www.macobserver.com/tmo/article/cramer_raises_aapl_target_to_300Pretty wild $2100 is becoming the new normal price target Cheers to the longs!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 13, 2019 12:57:33 GMT -8
Quick call wall sitch. Close >275 = uber-bullish. Those are all small OI numbers. For more astonishment, look at today's volume vs Open Interest. More than 3X and 5X at 272.5 and 275 call strikes. And more than 10x at the 272.5 put strike. Does it matter? Someone is doing some day trading....and then probably some day drinking, celebratory style.
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 13, 2019 13:07:48 GMT -8
ATH of 275.30 and a close ABOVE 275!!
Congrats and cheers to all the longs!!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 13, 2019 13:15:29 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$275.30All Time Highest TODAY intraday 32,189,902
shares traded today AAPL ALL TIME HIGHEST CLOSE!$275.15aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/AAPL market CAP. +1.223 TRILLION AAPL ALL TIME HIGH market CAP. +1.223 TRILLION TODAY +$1.223 TRILLION
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Post by BillH on Dec 13, 2019 13:23:21 GMT -8
"This pro-immigrant stuff will go over like a lead balloon with about 67% of potential viewers". As they conveniently forget that we're all immigrants and the amount of struggle it took their ancestors to get us here.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2019 13:49:19 GMT -8
"This pro-immigrant stuff will go over like a lead balloon with about 67% of potential viewers". As they conveniently forget that we're all immigrants and the amount of struggle it took their ancestors to get us here. I'm not an immigrant. The vast majority of Americans were born here. Not a persuasive argument. Neither is the "stolen land" nonsense. White guilt works with liberals, but not the other 75% of the country. When will you guys learn that? Did you not see the results of last night's UK election, the one where they called all Brexit'ers "racist"? A landslide. Even Democrats are starting to be concerned about immigration (they should if they really do care about poor people's wages and jobs). You think Tim Cook is always blathering about immigrants because he wants to pay his workers a "living wage"?
Cheers to the longs.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2019 13:52:02 GMT -8
Quick call wall sitch. Close >275 = uber-bullish. Those are all small OI numbers. For more astonishment, look at today's volume vs Open Interest. More than 3X and 5X at 272.5 and 275 call strikes. And more than 10x at the 272.5 put strike. Does it matter? Someone is doing some day trading....and then probably some day drinking, celebratory style. Well, I could have sworn I saw the Evil Overlords™ dumping shares those last two minutes. They tried, but it was like the Battle of the Bulge. More like the battle for Cologne.
Cheers to the longs!
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 309
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Post by crispin on Dec 13, 2019 14:56:58 GMT -8
Here's hoping some people on this board use a bit of their AAPL profits to see a therapist and work through their fragile masculinity issues and various other serious insecurities... lol.
Very happy to see Apple appears to be off the hook from this pathetic trade war for now. There's no guarantee we won't get dragged back into it of course, but always nice to head into the weekend at ATHs.
Cheers to the longs!
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Dec 13, 2019 15:34:33 GMT -8
Well. There’s clearly a lot you don’t know about British politics JD. you’re embarrassing yourself mate.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2019 17:39:18 GMT -8
Well. There’s clearly a lot you don’t know about British politics JD. you’re embarrassing yourself mate. What don’t I understand? The left is still screaming racism. Boris won in a landslide. Outright conservative majority for the first time since Thatcher. I think the left in the UK (currently rioting in the streets and claiming Boris isn’t their PM) are the ones who don’t get it. 🤷🏻♂️
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2019 17:43:42 GMT -8
Here's hoping some people on this board use a bit of their AAPL profits to see a therapist and work through their fragile masculinity issues and various other serious insecurities... lol. Very happy to see Apple appears to be off the hook from this pathetic trade war for now. There's no guarantee we won't get dragged back into it of course, but always nice to head into the weekend at ATHs. Cheers to the longs! You see no irony in crying like a little girl 😭 about the supposed trade “war” and your first paragraph? We could never win WWII with what passes for men today. No concept of sacrifice (unless it’s *other people’s* money). LOL at soyboy lefties calling out masculinity. 😂 Just remember who started the personal attacks. 🤷🏻♂️
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Post by hyci004 on Dec 13, 2019 19:33:37 GMT -8
We could never win WWII with what passes for men today. No concept of sacrifice (unless it’s *other people’s* money). You’re such a badass.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 13, 2019 20:02:35 GMT -8
Back to 268.20. This pattern of hitting a high and seeing a sell-off (albeit small) is starting to concern me. I get it that the weak hands are selling to book profits and more so to be safe because of getting burned in the past. Does anyone see this as the beginning of trouble? No, I don't see it as the beginning of trouble *and* I don't see any share price pullbacks as "weak hands" selling to book profits and/or be safe. I would more likely see it as folks who believe that they are going to be successful(and apparently some are) by buying low and selling high, and they don't want to miss out on the sell high part. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Over ten years ago I tried it myself using AAPL shares in one of my IRA's and it worked *great*...two of the three times I tried it. That third time was enough proof that buy-and-hold...and hold...and hold, was the *perfect* investment method for me. After this incredibly rewarding, ATH day, I still won't be surprised to see continuing sell-offs in the coming weeks as we end 2019 and move into 2020. I can bet that some of those buy-low and sell-high folks will be continuing to use AAPL shares as one of their favorite stocks to buy and sell; I'm sure it can be exciting, and *perhaps* very financially rewarding for them. But I'll continue to be one of those *boring* buy-and-hold shareholders when it comes to AAPL. Cheers to the *very* patient AAPL Longs!!
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 13, 2019 20:44:34 GMT -8
Well, I see that not even an incredible week for AAPL could stave off a return to political bickering and juvenile insult contests. Pathetic.
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coma
Member
Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Dec 14, 2019 2:35:18 GMT -8
Here's hoping some people on this board use a bit of their AAPL profits to see a therapist and work through their fragile masculinity issues and various other serious insecurities... I’ve been seeing a shrink weekly for more than 12 years and now he says ”I’m getting better”.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 14, 2019 9:05:22 GMT -8
Back to 268.20. This pattern of hitting a high and seeing a sell-off (albeit small) is starting to concern me. I get it that the weak hands are selling to book profits and more so to be safe because of getting burned in the past. Does anyone see this as the beginning of trouble? No, I don't see it as the beginning of trouble *and* I don't see any share price pullbacks as "weak hands" selling to book profits and/or be safe. I would more likely see it as folks who believe that they are going to be successful(and apparently some are) by buying low and selling high, and they don't want to miss out on the sell high part. Not that there's anything wrong with that. Over ten years ago I tried it myself using AAPL shares in one of my IRA's and it worked *great*...two of the three times I tried it. That third time was enough proof that buy-and-hold...and hold...and hold, was the *perfect* investment method for me. After this incredibly rewarding, ATH day, I still won't be surprised to see continuing sell-offs in the coming weeks as we end 2019 and move into 2020. I can bet that some of those buy-low and sell-high folks will be continuing to use AAPL shares as one of their favorite stocks to buy and sell; I'm sure it can be exciting, and *perhaps* very financially rewarding for them. But I'll continue to be one of those *boring* buy-and-hold shareholders when it comes to AAPL. Cheers to the *very* patient AAPL Longs!! With options, I'm always amazed at how many strategies there are. They range from the super aggressive, to the super conservative, the very bullish, to the very bearish. And there's more neutral things too, along with some protective insurance at various levels. And then a multitude of things I haven't even comprehended, especially when you start pitting one timeframe against another, or what stock or average against another. But even with straight stock, there's a lot of different styles and choices out there. Many of us here are both long term buy-and-hold investors, that did so with a much larger percentage of stock than just about anyone would suggest. It worked well with AAPL. If instead we had a gold bug, and did the same with LODE, we wouldn't be doing too hot. The same with a bunch of other choices out there. Personally, I've owned AAPL for just shy of 22 years. While there have been lots of ups and downs, those were magnified by some of my investment choices at times such as taking on a huge margin (%-wise), and using lots of options. A rideable 30-40% dip turned into a bucking bronco of a 85% dip that was much more apt to throw you. But it did help focus the conviction. These days I still use margin, to a much larger value but much lower percentage. I've decided that given the market and AAPL's consistency of 20-30% drops, why not juice things a little by taking advantage of that and cheap borrowing. While taking on some extra risk, I can borrow up to 20% near the lows and sell them off closer to the highs. If you don't try to hit the peak or valley, it then just becomes a game of actually carrying through, no matter how rosie things look. Buying when 25% down gives a 33% gain just getting back to flat, without any further recovery. But that requires trimming a bit at times like these. We're had a long run that has been amazing. Things continue to look good, but history contends that stocks don't go up forever. OTOH, at times like these where things are looking pretty good, it's tempting to just continue holding onto a large margin loan, and the corresponding shares. If AAPL were to have an annualized return over the coming decade of just 10%, and you paid an average of 3% in margin, that net 7% doubles. So, borrow a million, and you gain a million over a decade. Easy peasy. And yet that can get you into trouble if you borrow too much. I'm selling a few shares to tweak things a bit, like the scout motto to "Be Prepared". And taxing out some gains in the current structure, which some want to change. But the share totals that really matter are the big boys, playing with millions of shares. They move the market. Some are twitchy, such as the ones that I'm sure were using AAPL as a conduit to play the tariff action. Many traditional mutuals and ETFs are much more consistent, but will change if bad news or even bad rumors start flying. But like needing continued building to stay ahead of a housing crunch, AAPL needs at least some continued buying to keep moving up. I'm sure it helps that Apple keeps buying shares, but it's hard for me to quantify how much buying needs to occur. Volume has shrunk over the past few weeks, so it is good to see it boost up over the past 2 trading days. To me, AAPL/Apple is looking pretty solid, but we know that the coming 2 months of little news from Apple is a ripe time for rumors, true or fabricated. At the same time, with the tariff worry lessened, the question is what is next for the market. Sometime will freak people out, taking the market and AAPL down with it. If things aren't too bubbly beforehand it can absorb the action with only a dip. But if things were to get too optimistic, a larger response would be seen. IMHO it seems like a good time to stay on top of things, and trim a little if you need or want to. AAPL is doing pretty well, and even valued much more fairly. But how long will this last? I see no reason to make big changes, but little changes are always a good idea. While my little changes don't get anywhere close to moving the market, it's possible that a little change from the likes of Buffet could move things, especially if volume was low. Good luck all!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 14, 2019 11:06:01 GMT -8
Well, I see that not even an incredible week for AAPL could stave off a return to political bickering and juvenile insult contests. Pathetic. You do realize that calling someone “juvenile” is itself a personal attack? 😂
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Dec 14, 2019 18:16:14 GMT -8
Well, I see that not even an incredible week for AAPL could stave off a return to political bickering and juvenile insult contests. Pathetic. You do realize that calling someone “juvenile” is itself a personal attack? 😂 I named no one. If you want to self identify, that’s up to you.
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Post by redinaustin on Dec 14, 2019 21:37:30 GMT -8
When and where did you serve?
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