benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,314
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Post by benoir on Dec 16, 2019 6:45:52 GMT -8
Frothy? $278+ into the open. Personally would like to see a more gradual ascent.
Here’s to you longs out there.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 16, 2019 6:49:32 GMT -8
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,314
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Post by benoir on Dec 16, 2019 6:51:06 GMT -8
Sure is...
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 16, 2019 6:51:14 GMT -8
Thanks for starting the thread, benoir.
279.37 as I write this. New ATH!!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 16, 2019 6:51:40 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $280.65 All Time Highest TODAY intraday
updated at close (3 PM CENTRAL)
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,314
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Post by benoir on Dec 16, 2019 7:11:44 GMT -8
If AAPL hits $284 before the year’s out it will have doubled in value this year. Not bad if you BTFD.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 16, 2019 8:46:09 GMT -8
"It's beginning to feel a lot like Christmas"
Thanks AAPL
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 16, 2019 8:57:49 GMT -8
BA DA BING! 🍻 🚀 🍎
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Post by rmhe1999 on Dec 16, 2019 9:15:58 GMT -8
Am I the only one getting anxiety from Apple's meteoric rise? I'm long shares-only, but considering selling a small portion to raise some cash for what I'm assuming will be a nice toilet flushing of the share price sometime in 2020. We've been through it so many times before that I expect it to happen again in 2020. Expectations are getting high for services and the 5G iPhone; lots of time for that narrative to change next year.
Thoughts?
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coma
Member
Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Dec 16, 2019 9:17:42 GMT -8
Me likey . . .
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 309
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Post by crispin on Dec 16, 2019 9:40:18 GMT -8
Am I the only one getting anxiety from Apple's meteoric rise? I'm long shares-only, but considering selling a small portion to raise some cash for what I'm assuming will be a nice toilet flushing of the share price sometime in 2020. We've been through it so many times before that I expect it to happen again in 2020. Expectations are getting high for services and the 5G iPhone; lots of time for that narrative to change next year. Thoughts? Of course a flush will inevitably happen again - but no one can tell you when or at what price. If it’ll help you sleep easier to sell a few shares then you should absolutely do it. Missing out on further upside, with a little cash in the bank, is not the worst position to be in.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 16, 2019 10:00:27 GMT -8
Am I the only one getting anxiety from Apple's meteoric rise? I'm long shares-only, but considering selling a small portion to raise some cash for what I'm assuming will be a nice toilet flushing of the share price sometime in 2020. We've been through it so many times before that I expect it to happen again in 2020. Expectations are getting high for services and the 5G iPhone; lots of time for that narrative to change next year. Thoughts? I agree, and it's hard to call a top and sell anything perfect. So then you get into the choice of selling a little on the way up, which might be much too low, or selling some on the way down. I sold a little already, on the way up. And I wrote some covered calls a ways out (Jan '21 330's for $10.35 when ~$271....they now sell for about $12, after the stock has climbed $9 more). It's all a personal choice. There will always be ups and downs, in the market and in AAPL. The easy choice is to just hold forever, but if you ever need some of the money, or just get tired of some of the excess movement, it makes sense that if you are going to sell some you should do it when closer to the top than the bottom. Learning from Fisher Investments, making small changes or moves is a good lower risk bet. Admittedly, even though I'm happy with my covered call writing, I'm also happy I choose to only write 50 at the time instead of 100. Now or in the future I can write the next 50, either at a higher premium, or more likely at a higher strike. While a relatively small difference overall, it starts to add up. And it has the side benefit of either providing diversification if we place it elsewhere, or writing down our margin loan. Personally I would't want to build up much cash right now, but each person's goals and risk/reward is different. Good luck
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 16, 2019 10:01:46 GMT -8
Am I the only one getting anxiety from Apple's meteoric rise? I'm long shares-only, but considering selling a small portion to raise some cash for what I'm assuming will be a nice toilet flushing of the share price sometime in 2020. We've been through it so many times before that I expect it to happen again in 2020. Expectations are getting high for services and the 5G iPhone; lots of time for that narrative to change next year. Thoughts? Have you considered a trailing stop loss for the shares your wanting to selling?
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 16, 2019 10:14:19 GMT -8
AAPL P/E 23.6 (today). If this P/E can be maintained, wow! $475. in May 2028 with a conservative annual earnings growth ~5%.. Compared to S&P 500 P/E of 24.85. So, all is good. Maybe for sometime, but then reversion. The safe question is not if, but when. www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm As of September 2018, I now also include an alternative version of CAPE that is somewhat different. As documented in Bunn & Shiller (2014) and Jivraj and Shiller (2017), changes in corporate payout policy (i. e. share repurchases rather than dividends have now become a dominant approach in the United States for cash distribution to shareholders) may affect the level of the CAPE ratio through changing the growth rate of earnings per share. This subsequently may affect the average of the real earnings per share used in the CAPE ratio. A total return CAPE corrects for this bias through reinvesting dividends into the price index and appropriately scaling the earnings per share. www.kitces.com/blog/shiller-cape-market-valuation-terrible-for-market-timing-but-valuable-for-long-term-retirement-planning/Nonetheless, the reality is that while Shiller CAPE has little predictive value in the short term, its correlation to market returns is far stronger over longer time periods; Shiller CAPE shows its strongest correlation to nominal returns over an 8-year time horizon, and is actually most predictive of real returns over an *18* year time horizon… supporting Benjamin Graham’s old adage that the markets may be a voting machine in the short run, but they are ultimately a weighing machine in the long run as valuation eventually takes hold. On the other hand, over very long time horizons (e.g., 30 years) Shiller CAPE once again begins to lose its value as other longer-term structural market factors take hold. The fact that Shiller CAPE is a strong predictor of market performance in the long run (but not the “ultra” long run, nor the short run) suggests that the valuation measure does have use, but only if applied in the correct contexts. For instance, while all this suggests that Shiller CAPE may be a poor market-timing investment indicator, clients who are retiring and exposed to “sequence-of-returns” risk over the first half of their retirement may benefit greatly by adjusting their initial spending levels in light of market valuation at the start of retirement.
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Post by hyci004 on Dec 16, 2019 10:21:23 GMT -8
Apple might under estimated the demand of the AirPod Pros this holiday quarter. It is completely sold out and people are checking the Apple stores daily for new shipment.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 16, 2019 10:42:58 GMT -8
AAPL P/E 23.6 (today). If this P/E can be maintained, wow! $475. in May 2028 with a conservative annual earnings growth ~5%.. Compared to S&P 500 P/E of 24.85. So, all is good. Maybe for sometime, but then reversion. The safe question is not if, but when. I'll be a billionaire, if I use the right annualized percentage and timeframe Personally, 10% seems pretty safe on a longer term basis, for AAPL or SPY. That yields $610 for AAPL in 8 years. 8% gives $575. At some point it's just a wild ass guess offset by a black swan event, where given the timeframe that can be a point event or a trend. There is some non-zero probability of a larger trend happening against a product or company. Likewise, I'd give 95+% odds of a 18% or larger fall at some point in that timeframe of both AAPL and the S&P, and nearly as high of 2 or more of those dips. The question always is when and from where...an 18% fall from a value 100% up from here is much more palatable. The nice thing on long term thinking, and not caring much about the short or medium term movements, is that you can just watch out for major trend changes. But maybe we should just ask Lucky what he watches for, in the very long term?
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 16, 2019 10:54:16 GMT -8
[/quote] Personally, 10% seems pretty safe on a longer term basis, for AAPL or SPY. That yields $610 for AAPL in 8 years. 8% gives $575. At some point it's just a wild ass guess offset by a black swan event, where given the timeframe that can be a point event or a trend. There is some non-zero probability of a larger trend happening against a product or company.
Likewise, I'd give 95+% odds of a 18% or larger fall at some point in that timeframe of both AAPL and the S&P, and nearly as high of 2 or more of those dips. The question always is when and from where...an 18% fall from a value 100% up from here is much more palatable.
The nice thing on long term thinking, and not caring much about the short or medium term movements, is that you can just watch out for major trend changes. But maybe we should just ask Lucky what he watches for, in the very long term?[/quote] [/I]
Agreed. And, thanks. I catch myself thinking of earnings, when what I really need to get a better handle on is valuing AAPL's enormous Net Free Cash Flow.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 16, 2019 11:14:13 GMT -8
Am I the only one getting anxiety from Apple's meteoric rise? I'm long shares-only, but considering selling a small portion to raise some cash for what I'm assuming will be a nice toilet flushing of the share price sometime in 2020. We've been through it so many times before that I expect it to happen again in 2020. Expectations are getting high for services and the 5G iPhone; lots of time for that narrative to change next year. Thoughts? I'd rather have anxiety about Apple's meteoric rise than over it falling like a broken elevator. Ono beat me to it; Despite its "meteoric rise," Apple is still trading below the S&P 500 average, i.e., still priced like a public utility. This doesn't stop the dummies on CNBC for calling it expensive. That incredibly annoying Andrew Ross Sorkin (why would an investment channel have an anti-business guy on during prime market hours?!) had some guy on with his top stocks for 2020 list, and was blathering about Apple's "market cap." That's how you spot a charlatan. Who gives a shit about stock price X total shares? When has that ever been predictive of anything? You'll never see Ono's P/E point on CNBC. I'm generally not a big fan of P/E's for individual stock valuations, but if you're going to call a stock overpriced, what metric do you use (especially in an era of Chipotle and Tesla)? I have zero TV programming experience or training, but I am confident that I could develop a show right now that would pull CNBC's best ratings. If they were trying to get bad ratings, I don't know what they would do differently. BTW I am a cord cutter, but Charles Schwab's Street Smart Edge software gives me a free stream of CNLSD... Weeeeee.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 16, 2019 11:33:57 GMT -8
I have zero TV programming experience or training, but I am confident that I could develop a show right now that would pull CNBC's best ratings. If they were trying to get bad ratings, I don't know what they would do differently. BTW I am a cord cutter, but Charles Schwab's Street Smart Edge software gives me a free stream of CNLSD... Isn't it just the Shock and Awe that we see in articles, but put forth in video format? Would "and yet again, today it continues to look like the 10 year view will annualize out to a 8-12% gain in the market and most individual stocks", daily, get the eyeballs....and thus advertising dollars? No no no. "Up next, we have the billionaire fund manager who says it's all going to end". Or "this upside down bullish cross shows things could spike up 20% next month". "Unemployment went down, but at a smaller rate" "Rainbows appear, this time really is going to be different" I don't have a blacklist of sites and authors that some do, but you can pick up on the jest of things pretty quickly. I like to still keep an eye out on the doom and gloom to see what's out there, but more often than not it's just a small thing blown out of proportion, while bolstering the fact that no one can predict the future but people are happy to guess at the extremes and then take credit for the prediction if it really does happen. And no, I'm not getting jaded in my old age
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 16, 2019 13:04:51 GMT -8
I have zero TV programming experience or training, but I am confident that I could develop a show right now that would pull CNBC's best ratings. If they were trying to get bad ratings, I don't know what they would do differently. BTW I am a cord cutter, but Charles Schwab's Street Smart Edge software gives me a free stream of CNLSD... Isn't it just the Shock and Awe that we see in articles, but put forth in video format? Would "and yet again, today it continues to look like the 10 year view will annualize out to a 8-12% gain in the market and most individual stocks", daily, get the eyeballs....and thus advertising dollars? No no no. "Up next, we have the billionaire fund manager who says it's all going to end". Or "this upside down bullish cross shows things could spike up 20% next month". "Unemployment went down, but at a smaller rate" "Rainbows appear, this time really is going to be different" I don't have a blacklist of sites and authors that some do, but you can pick up on the jest of things pretty quickly. I like to still keep an eye out on the doom and gloom to see what's out there, but more often than not it's just a small thing blown out of proportion, while bolstering the fact that no one can predict the future but people are happy to guess at the extremes and then take credit for the prediction if it really does happen. And no, I'm not getting jaded in my old age And it's called "Fake News". Unfortunately, there are those that do follow their recommendations and it does move the market. And these "experts" do receive big salaries for misleading the public. As long as it keeps working for them, they will continue to play the game. Sad.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 16, 2019 13:06:50 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$280.65All Time Highest TODAY intraday 29,765,105
shares traded today AAPL ALL TIME HIGHEST CLOSE!$279.86aaplinvestors.net/stats/rank/AAPL market CAP. +1.244 TRILLION AAPL ALL TIME HIGH market CAP. +1.244 TRILLION TODAY +$1.244 TRILLION
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 16, 2019 13:10:45 GMT -8
AAPL P/E 23.6 (today). If this P/E can be maintained, wow! $475. in May 2028 with a conservative annual earnings growth ~5%.. Compared to S&P 500 P/E of 24.85. So, all is good. Maybe for sometime, but then reversion. The safe question is not if, but when. www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm As of September 2018, I now also include an alternative version of CAPE that is somewhat different. As documented in Bunn & Shiller (2014) and Jivraj and Shiller (2017), changes in corporate payout policy (i. e. share repurchases rather than dividends have now become a dominant approach in the United States for cash distribution to shareholders) may affect the level of the CAPE ratio through changing the growth rate of earnings per share. This subsequently may affect the average of the real earnings per share used in the CAPE ratio. A total return CAPE corrects for this bias through reinvesting dividends into the price index and appropriately scaling the earnings per share. www.kitces.com/blog/shiller-cape-market-valuation-terrible-for-market-timing-but-valuable-for-long-term-retirement-planning/Nonetheless, the reality is that while Shiller CAPE has little predictive value in the short term, its correlation to market returns is far stronger over longer time periods; Shiller CAPE shows its strongest correlation to nominal returns over an 8-year time horizon, and is actually most predictive of real returns over an *18* year time horizon… supporting Benjamin Graham’s old adage that the markets may be a voting machine in the short run, but they are ultimately a weighing machine in the long run as valuation eventually takes hold. On the other hand, over very long time horizons (e.g., 30 years) Shiller CAPE once again begins to lose its value as other longer-term structural market factors take hold. The fact that Shiller CAPE is a strong predictor of market performance in the long run (but not the “ultra” long run, nor the short run) suggests that the valuation measure does have use, but only if applied in the correct contexts. For instance, while all this suggests that Shiller CAPE may be a poor market-timing investment indicator, clients who are retiring and exposed to “sequence-of-returns” risk over the first half of their retirement may benefit greatly by adjusting their initial spending levels in light of market valuation at the start of retirement. Thank you Ono for this excellent information. I had never heard of this before.
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Post by ericinaustin on Dec 16, 2019 13:56:50 GMT -8
Am I the only one getting anxiety from Apple's meteoric rise? I'm long shares-only, but considering selling a small portion to raise some cash for what I'm assuming will be a nice toilet flushing of the share price sometime in 2020. We've been through it so many times before that I expect it to happen again in 2020. Expectations are getting high for services and the 5G iPhone; lots of time for that narrative to change next year. Thoughts? I'd rather have anxiety about Apple's meteoric rise than over it falling like a broken elevator. Ono beat me to it; Despite its "meteoric rise," Apple is still trading below the S&P 500 average, i.e., still priced like a public utility. This doesn't stop the dummies on CNBC for calling it expensive. That incredibly annoying Andrew Ross Sorkin (why would an investment channel have an anti-business guy on during prime market hours?!) had some guy on with his top stocks for 2020 list, and was blathering about Apple's "market cap." That's how you spot a charlatan. Who gives a shit about stock price X total shares? When has that ever been predictive of anything? You'll never see Ono's P/E point on CNBC. I'm generally not a big fan of P/E's for individual stock valuations, but if you're going to call a stock overpriced, what metric do you use (especially in an era of Chipotle and Tesla)? I have zero TV programming experience or training, but I am confident that I could develop a show right now that would pull CNBC's best ratings. If they were trying to get bad ratings, I don't know what they would do differently. BTW I am a cord cutter, but Charles Schwab's Street Smart Edge software gives me a free stream of CNLSD... Weeeeee.
JD. I agree with you here but this run and this bull mkt in general is giving me pause. I’d like to hear from you how you would value tapple which metric would you use to assess overvalued. If you could find a metric and you became convinced we were way past it , what would you do, sell the stock and wait., use options etc. I know we all have different situations risk tolerance etc. but would like to hear the res of the board Chime in. Eric in Austin
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 16, 2019 14:33:53 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 16, 2019 15:16:23 GMT -8
I'm guessing I'm as pleased as anyone on AFB to see AAPL doing so well...but over on Seeking Alpha, the boo-birds and fear-mongers are out in force. A recent article posted there, Why Apple Stock Could Drop To $225 In 2020 by Crispus Nyaga, is a great example. Among other sky-is-falling pronouncements is this phrase:
Apple (AAPL) has had a successful year. Its stock is up by 71%, making it the best-performing FAANG stock. Apple has also outperformed the S&P 500 index and the S&P 100 information technology index.
OMG, up 71% in one year? That's way too fast! AAPL must be headed for a crash!! /s
Actually, if you look at today's closing price of $279.86, it's up by more like 77% for the year. But, no matter. Let's not forget that AAPL's 2018 ATH was over $230 before the big drop down to the low $140's. So all the ramping up in share price before October of this year was recovering to approach last year's ATH. The share price is actually up more like 20-25% over the 2018 ATH. Still pretty nice but not ridiculously huge.
So what's the author's Final Thoughts?
I have been fortunate to have invested in Apple for a few years now. At the same time, I have been critical about the company for many years. I believe that Apple has missed many opportunities as it continued to rely on iPhone revenue. For example, I have never understood why the company failed to diversify its revenue by expanding to offering enterprise services like cloud. I also criticized Apple for not having a cheap smartphone in its lineup as it started expanding to the services segment. It seems the management listened as the company is expected to launch a $400 phone in 2020.
As I mentioned before, I have exited my long position in Apple and I have decided to short Apple with a small portion of these profits. The main reason is that I expect Apple to see slow growth in the coming year. Remember, Apple’s service revenue grew by just 18% in the most recent quarter. This is not a very good growth for a company that is valued at more than $1.4 trillion. Also, I expect services to grow a bit faster in 2020 as Apple adds revenue from the new services. As I have explained, I expect this growth to halt in the second half of the year.
To be clear. My short position on Apple represents the smallest part of my portfolio. My target is for the Apple stock to drop to the important support of $225.
So there you go...he's shorting AAPL. And he may do well with his short, who can say? Certainly not me. But I don't believe he'll do nearly as well as those of us who have ignored this type of analysis for years and merely held our shares. Perhaps those who combine holding shares with options or some other method have done even better than us; but I'll never know because I'm risk adverse and can't abide the idea of losing investment money even if I could possibly make a very nice profit if I were successful.
In any case, I love seeing the enthusiasm on AFB these days and cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,055
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Post by Dave on Dec 16, 2019 15:36:03 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Dec 16, 2019 18:42:49 GMT -8
Yea, $350 - $400 price target for Apple in 2020, gene Munster knows Apple stock as well as anyone, hope he’s right.
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