chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Dec 19, 2019 6:25:21 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,097
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Post by Dave on Dec 19, 2019 6:42:14 GMT -8
A great open. 10 minutes into the open and the price is up over a $1. Looking like another all time high is in our future. Hopefully.
Oh well, another day, another dollar. (before taxes)
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Dec 19, 2019 8:29:57 GMT -8
I've started selling some of my long-term LEAPs (expiring January) this month instead of waiting until the new year (which in retrospect, waiting was a mistake last year). I look at them and am amazed at how "cheap" they were when I bought them in 2017 and early 2018! I figure I'll take some of the capital gains for 2019 and the rest for 2020.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,628
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 19, 2019 8:47:16 GMT -8
I've started selling some of my long-term LEAPs (expiring January) this month instead of waiting until the new year (which in retrospect, waiting was a mistake last year). I look at them and am amazed at how "cheap" they were when I bought them in 2017 and early 2018! I figure I'll take some of the capital gains for 2019 and the rest for 2020. Nice timing! It is good to book at least part of that gain, both for taxes and risk management. There have been times, especially quite a while ago, where the Jan Leap expirations have lined up with some serious downward movement. IMO it doesn't happen alone, but it can be a catalyst or extra lever. That 260 strike has around 120k OI, on both the call and put side. Next time I feel like bottom fishing on AAPL, after it is down say 25+%, I may look to straight options or spreads instead of some extra stock. Especially if I want to take some calculated risks in the Roth. OTOH, I've been thinking that for over a decade, and instead have just had to watch the gains stack up from shares. 1st world problems, and all that. Have a great day everyone! Safe travels!
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 19, 2019 8:55:38 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,097
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Post by Dave on Dec 19, 2019 9:22:02 GMT -8
Until legislation is passed declaring that the individual owns their information/data then this will only continue to get worse. But without the ability to collect and sell information about you, where would Google and Facebook be? Sad.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 19, 2019 11:30:30 GMT -8
Modern tech has blurred the lines between government and Constitution vs private sector. While the Bill of Rights only applies to government actors, if your privacy (or speech) is effectively destroyed by big tech, does it really matter who the infringer is? This is especially true for privacy; The Fourth Amendment only applies to police or government when there is a reasonable expectation of privacy. So if a private company or industry intrudes on your privacy, and this is accepted by society, the police can argue you had no REP and therefore no 4th Amendment justification is needed for them to have a peek. For example, if Amazon drones start flying into our backyards and dropping off packages at our back doors, it will inevitably change Fourth Amendment law regarding "curtilage," and police will be able to argue we've ceded that privacy away. You can see how allowing a company like Google to know every single thing you do in and out of your home could also affect 4th Amendment law. Some people like to say, "if you have nothing to hide, why do you care?" This is a total misunderstanding of the Fourth Amendment. While the 5th, 6th, and 8th Amendments are meant to protect the rights of the accused, the 4th is unique in that it is meant to protect the privacy rights of the innocent. But my immediate answer to such people is, "OK, hand me your phone unlocked so I can read your texts and look at your pictures." I've never had a "if you have nothing to hide" person take me up on that offer. And don't even get me started on the censorship by big tech.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 19, 2019 12:16:25 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,097
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Post by Dave on Dec 19, 2019 13:38:31 GMT -8
Modern tech has blurred the lines between government and Constitution vs private sector. While the Bill of Rights only applies to government actors, if your privacy (or speech) is effectively destroyed by big tech, does it really matter who the infringer is? This is especially true for privacy; The Fourth Amendment only applies to police or government when there is a reasonable expectation of privacy. So if a private company or industry intrudes on your privacy, and this is accepted by society, the police can argue you had no REP and therefore no 4th Amendment justification is needed for them to have a peek. For example, if Amazon drones start flying into our backyards and dropping off packages at our back doors, it will inevitably change Fourth Amendment law regarding "curtilage," and police will be able to argue we've ceded that privacy away. You can see how allowing a company like Google to know every single thing you so in and out of your home could also affect 4th Amendment law. Some people like to say, "if you have nothing to hide, why do you care?" This is a total misunderstanding of the Fourth Amendment. While the 5th, 6th, and 8th Amendments are meant to protect the rights of the accused, the 4th is unique in that it is meant to protect the privacy rights of the innocent. But my immediate answer to such people is, "OK, hand me your phone unlocked so I can read your texts and look at your pictures." I've never had a "if you have nothing to hide" person take me up on that offer. And don't even get me started on the censorship by big tech. Thanks JD, I was totally unaware of the implications of the intrusions that big business made into our private lives and freedoms.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 19, 2019 15:03:56 GMT -8
OK, I realize I'm such a confirmed buy-and-hold person that I'm too risk adverse to even hold our IRA dividends days, weeks or months to *hopefully* reinvest upon a pullback in share price. Consequently, I have our IRA dividends set to reinvest the same day they're issued instead of waiting and hoping for a pullback to a lower share price that may or may not come. So this morning I read an article on Seeking Alpha entitled: Apple: Chance For Blowout Earnings But Trading Above Fair ValueI figured that was a fairly positive title even though I don't feel it's above Fair Value at all, considering the years of being, IMO, *considerably* undervalued by analysts and investors. So I read the author's summary: ==================== Summary Based on iPhone 11 success and "easy comps" next quarter's report could be huge.
The stock has run and is above fair value.
My guess is there can still be stock momentum though, based on accelerating fundamentals.==================== OK, so he's saying there can still be stock momentum but then, in his conclusion, he states that one should hold off buying it because it may pull back. ==================== Conclusion I respect fundamental momentum. Apple has that right now. The stock is fairly valued but I think the stock can still work based on the accelerating two-year revenue growth. But it makes sense to wait for some dips if there are any.==================== Say what? Apple has *momentum*...but better to "wait for some dips to buy it... if there are any". OK, so what if all the future dips bring it back to share price that's well above the current share price? Then what? Wait for a *deeper* dip sometime in the future? It's doing well but, golly, it could get cheaper in the future. This sounds to me like it's great advice for someone who doesn't care if they own AAPL shares or not. From 20 years of investing in AAPL, I *know* there will be pullbacks in the share price...but when and by how much? Beats me, I choose to leave that to others to try to guess. As my wife and I were buying shares of AAPL while we were working and paying off our mortgage, the time to buy shares of AAPL was when we could put together enough money to *afford* a few shares. Not the most brilliant strategy, I admit, but for someone interested in holding shares long term, it worked just fine. Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,097
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Post by Dave on Dec 20, 2019 5:49:00 GMT -8
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