chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 18, 2020 8:15:41 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 18, 2020 12:16:10 GMT -8
Why do all the CNBC hosts constantly bemoan and hector about investors making money on AAPL? I think they are envious of the gains vs their diversified SPY ETF's. "OMG AAPL is overvalued/parabolic/stratospheric/law of large numbers!" PE ratios: SPY average 25.04 AAPL 26.81 GOOG 31.77 MSFT 33.45 FB 35.51 AMZN 82.63 NFLX 108.83 I've made a lot of money over the years chiefly through *ignoring* investing advice.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 18, 2020 14:50:13 GMT -8
Why do all the CNBC hosts constantly bemoan and hector about investors making money on AAPL? I think they are envious of the gains vs their diversified SPY ETF's. "OMG AAPL is overvalued/parabolic/stratospheric/law of large numbers!" PE ratios: SPY average 25.04 AAPL 26.81 GOOG 31.77 MSFT 33.45 FB 35.51 AMZN 82.63 NFLX 108.83 I've made a lot of money over the years chiefly through *ignoring* investing advice. I really don't get it either, JD. Take this recent article on Seeking Alpha titled: seekingalpha.com/article/4317638-apple-300 by Kwan-Chen Ma I'm sure the author is very knowledgeable about the stock market and he certainly has all the expected tables and charts to support his beliefs. He does, however, feel it necessary to include this warning paragraph towards the bottom of his article: === Cautions: Sentiment May Reverse.
When playing with emotion, one should be cautioned that emotion tends to be "temperamental." You may notice the Apple sentiment, as measured the way described above, has been volatile and can easily reverse itself.
=== Whoa, wait a minute! You mean to tell me that this incredible momentum that AAPL has seen over the last few months could, not only stop, but go in the other direction? Get the hell out of here! /s Just the fact that the author felt the need to include that caution in his article made me wonder how any long-term investor or trader would not already fully understand that. My wife and I started investing in AAPL 20 years ago based on the *fundamentals* of Apple Inc without knowing about all the technical calculations that could be done. Half the time, when folks on AFB start using commonly used stock market terms, I have to search for the definition. But check out this exchange between a commenter and the author. So, I think he's saying that I could use the formula: p = a + b x REV + c x EPS + d x GM + e x CAPEX + f x FCF then do regression, estimate the fundamental share value, calculate momentum value by adding additional forecasts and overweight them: p = a + b x REV +...+f x FCF + g x REV1 + h x REV2 + ix REV3 +j x REV4 +gg x REV1**2 + .....jj x REV4**2. Got it! However, I believe a more straightforward method would be to invest in a strong company like Apple and then hold the stock long term until/unless you lose confidence, for any reason, in the company.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 18, 2020 15:36:08 GMT -8
I don't think anyone here is so supremely confident of Apple or AAPL having no risk, existential or otherwise (why check an Apple financial board if you never worry? Just to click "like" on Artman's ATH posts?). I worry all the time. My main worries are, Near term: 1) Fed pulling the rug out on QE-light bond purchases. They have to stop growing their balance sheet sooner or later. Some conspiracy nuts think the Fed will try to torpedo Trump right before the election. But I don't see the Fed preferring the alternative (just going to leave the politics there and not get deeper into it). But that seems awfully vindictive, tank the economy (and be blamed for it) because Trump says mean things about you? But that would just be a temporary shock to the markets. As we saw in 2009 and after, it was the ultimate buying opportunity. Still, the Fed juice has to end sometime, no? I should market an energy drink named Fed Juice. 2) Big earnings miss. That would suck, and they can take years to really recover the momentum from; but I think Tim and Luca are good at predicting sales and margins (and engineering EPS), at least better than the blind dart throwers that PED tracks. Long term: 1) Paradigm disruption like happened to Microsoft, taking years to adapt and rebound from. Could happen, but I have to believe that Apple is on constant alert for such trends, hopefully buying up such threats, and running several dark projects in R&D just in case they take off (I think AR/VR is currently in that category). Worst case, be a fast follower. 2) Existential meteor hit from creative disruption a la Nokia or RIM. Well if that happens, hopefully we're all dead, a la Keynes and your grandchildren are enjoying their inheritance. 3) Somewhere in the middle of 1 and 2, like IBM. IBM is so big, it was able to leverage that size and revenue to pivot and follow cloud trends to some degree. I'm sill far from sold on Romnetty. But IBM looks like it's going to survive. But I just don't see Apple getting caught that flat-footed as IBM was. But I do allow for it of course. Just look at GE. Welch was lauded as the greatest CEO of all time. Now they lose money. Scary. I think arrogance was the problem at IBM and Microsoft. In MSFT's case, Ballmer was an incompetent at the absolutely wrong time. I can't really explain GE's fall since I haven't followed them that closely. It is sad though, the last great manufacturer in America (nuclear reactors and MRIs and power turbines and jet engines). Tim is not incompetent. Do you think Apple culture is that arrogant? Hard to say not knowing Tim and his team. What I do know is, nothing goes straight up forever and there's always a pullback. But if you believe in the Apple story, you can ride it out. Unless you are in your 70's, in which case, maybe take profits here if you need the money for something. Otherwise, your grandkids will thank you. I'm all for listening to bear cases, so long as they make actual sense. Thoughts?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 18, 2020 19:43:53 GMT -8
=== Cautions: Sentiment May Reverse.
When playing with emotion, one should be cautioned that emotion tends to be "temperamental." You may notice the Apple sentiment, as measured the way described above, has been volatile and can easily reverse itself.
=== Whoa, wait a minute! You mean to tell me that this incredible momentum that AAPL has seen over the last few months could, not only stop, but go in the other direction? Get the hell out of here! /s Just the fact that the author felt the need to include that caution in his article made me wonder how any long-term investor or trader would not already fully understand that. My wife and I started investing in AAPL 20 years ago based on the *fundamentals* of Apple Inc without knowing about all the technical calculations that could be done. Half the time, when folks on AFB start using commonly used stock market terms, I have to search for the definition. But check out this exchange between a commenter and the author. So, I think he's saying that I could use the formula: (math redacted for social science majors) However, I believe a more straightforward method would be to invest in a strong company like Apple and then hold the stock long term until/unless you lose confidence, for any reason, in the company. There's sentiment on Apple and sentiment on the stock. Customers drive the former, whereas investors and ANALysts drive the latter. But too often, IMO, the latter do not properly take into consideration the former. And I think a mistake fundamental analysts can make (I was just listening to that dreadfully dour Stephen L Weiss and his rubber wig drone on about Apple fundamentals on CNBC this week), is they never account for customer sentiment. Just the balance sheet stuff. But (IMO) part of fundamentals is how consumers feel about the company, and the stickiness of its ecosystem (this is the original reason I BOT AAPL in the early 90's, the love of Apple products that users have). I view this a lot more important than whether Apple sells 71 million phones in a quarter vs 70 million (as if these numbers just randomly fall out of the ether).
The bottom line is, every December there's that top-10 list of things people want for Christmas, and Apple products are in the top 4 or 5. An iconic brand that customers love (and in many cases are addicted to). And people aren't going to just abandon iPhones because Samsung comes out with some bendable screen that has more megapixels or Ghz. iOS is sticky for reasons I won't recap here because you all already know that. But it's an incalculable loyalty advantage that few, if any companies have, which doesn't show up in a balance sheet; but sure as hell it drives it going forward.
Amazon customers are loyal - to a point. Keep increasing the cost of Prime and I think they'll bail. Regardless, I see no path to Amazon becoming wildly profitable. Market growth, yes, assuming it can weather the antitrust attacks (some of which are naked protectionist shakedowns in the EU). But the margins will always be thin.
Tesla customers love their cars, but the company isn't even eligible for the SPY because it isn't profitable (one quarter doesn't count). And then there's the fact that Tesla doesn't have a grown up CEO. It's like Apple 1.0 with Steve, except Apple 1.0 was profitable. But I think Tesla would be hit just as hard (or harder) as Apple 1.0 was by its founder leaving (I predict he will, and major investor tears 😭). Plus, EV's aren't even a real market yet. If/when EV's are, there are plenty of experienced automakers who will jump right in. I don't see Tesla ever having a commanding share of any real market (for the record, I rode my 485-487.5 TSLA spread into expiry. Don't fight the tape!). 1.5X GM's market cap, that's just ludicrous (if any of this offends you, you may be in a cult rather than an investment. Blink in Morse code if you are being held against your will). And customers just loving a product isn't enough. Jeep Wrangler owners love their cars just as much as Tesla owners. As do Corvette owners and 911 owners (the two highest customer satisfaction cars on Consumer Reports). How FCA and GM doing? Porsche is doing well, but a lot of 911 owners despise its foray into SUV's as blasphemy.
No, Apple's stickiness is unique. That's the beauty of an OS that blends throughout various devices in the ecosystem. Apple should be more meteor-resistant if it fast follows with a meteor that runs on iOS. Did any customers feel this way about RIM or Nokia or IBM or Microsoft or GE? Obviously not Microsoft, since their phones sold like coldcakes. LOL Microsoft phones. Then there's the refrain that everyone who will buy an iPhone already has done so and thus growth has tapered (funny, as soon as they reclassified Apple to a value stock, value over-performed growth stocks 📈 🤑). This is a valid argument, but first, I don't think it's necessarily true (are the ~3.5 billion poor people who use Android phones going to stay poor forever, or do developing countries develop?). Part of it is cyclical; the US economy is doing better than the rest of the world, including China. China will rebound eventually (Trump made them tap out, so they can get up off the mat if they behave themselves.). And iPhones aren't TV's (SJ: The margins suck and people only buy new ones every 10 years). People buy new iPhones every year or two. And the margins are awesome. I think the iPhone growth question remains TBD.
But even if it were true that sales have permanently tapered off, I thought the big knock on Apple was that they needed to diversify from iPhone (something nobody seems to say about other one hit wonders like FB or Google or NTFX or XOM or CMG). Well, Apple has, and the good news is that those 1.5B installed base iPhones are little salesmen in the pockets of people with incomes to spend on services and wearables that run in the same sticky ecosystem. Even if Apple never increased its installed base by a single iPhone, that's one hell of a sales force multiplier for products and services that on their own could become Dow component-sized.
Who the hell else has got that? FB has a membership base that large, but do people love the FB experience so much that they'll buy any product FB sells? I don't know anyone who loves FB. Like Windows, they just treat it as a necessary evil; in FB's case, people use it to see friends and family baby pictures and how fat their high school rivals have gotten. If Amazon and Google can't sell phones, why would creepy Facebook be able to? Zuckerberg is his own worst enemy. He really should hide his weird robot self from public view. Anyway, I ramble. Thinking of finally starting a blog. It's good for the brain. I do think it's a good time to solicit some bear views. Anybody? Bueller?
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 18, 2020 22:12:05 GMT -8
I don't think anyone here is so supremely confident of Apple or AAPL having no risk, existential or otherwise ( why check an Apple financial board if you never worry?) Actually, I really don't come to this board because I *worry*. Perhaps I did back when I first discovered the previous board but I've continued to come to the present board for the last 7+ years because of the *usually* friendly camaraderie between the members. It's nice to be able to find recommended links to Apple-related articles and post/read thoughts/comments where folks have a basically positive feeling about the viability of Apple Inc. over the long term. And the AAPL share price has taken so many hits over the 20 years that my wife and I have been invested, many times completely unjustified, that I really don't worry long term. Do I enjoy the surge in share price like we've been seeing? Absolutely. For one thing, it means that I'll only need to sell or move a greatly reduced number of shares from my IRA's in order to satisfy my yearly RMD...but the higher share price also means our IRA dividends will buy fewer new shares when they're auto-reinvested every quarter. Bummer. /s What I do know is, nothing goes straight up forever and there's always a pullback. But if you believe in the Apple story, you can ride it out. Unless you are in your 70's, in which case, maybe take profits here if you need the money for something. Otherwise, your grandkids will thank you. Wait, if you believe in the Apple story, ride out a share price pullback unless you're in your 70's, in which case, sell 'em if you need the money? Hey, here's the thing, JD, even those in their 70's need to make sure their money will last as long as they do. Who knows, they may even make it into their 80's. Fortunately, quarterly AAPL dividends and RMD withdrawals from one's IRA's many be enough to avoid selling shares unnecessarily. Cheers to the AFB AAPL Longs!
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jan 19, 2020 5:06:38 GMT -8
Thanks JD, that was a great post and I truly enjoyed that. Apple makes products that become an integral part of our everyday lives that we many times bond with and feel lost without. There are few products in life that can make that same claim. Once you’re hooked, it’s usually for life. And as far as a bear case, I fear the dangers of China. Hopefully, Tim is working to diversify the manufacturing to safer regions. And yes, maybe you should start a blog.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 19, 2020 5:52:53 GMT -8
Fortunately, quarterly AAPL dividends and RMD withdrawals from one's IRA's may be enough to avoid selling shares unnecessarily. FIFY 😉... ...and with a bit of luck the same will be true for kids and grandkids.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 19, 2020 12:27:32 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 19, 2020 14:07:51 GMT -8
Fortunately, quarterly AAPL dividends and RMD withdrawals from one's IRA's may be enough to avoid selling shares unnecessarily. FIFY 😉... ...and with a bit of luck the same will be true for kids and grandkids. Thanks for fixing my comment, chinacat! You make an excellent point. Apple has more than doubled their quarterly dividend($.38/share to $.77/share) since they restarted their dividend program in August of 2012, 7+ years ago. My wife is only 64, so she won't be required to take yearly RMD withdrawals for another 6 years. Meanwhile, we're both using the quarterly AAPL dividends in our IRA's(containing 60% of our shares) to buy additional shares of AAPL. Over the next 15-20 years or so, with a few more shares of AAPL, a couple of additional dividend doublings and a little bit of that luck you referenced, the kids and grandkids shouldn't have to sell a single share. I only wish we'd started investing in AAPL when I was 47 years old instead of 57.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 19, 2020 14:18:54 GMT -8
I would hope that Apple has no plans to ditch Face ID. I've read that others prefer Touch ID over Face ID because, "...you don't have to look at the display to unlock your iPhone", leaving me to guess which few occasions I've had to not want to look at the display when using my iPhone. I'm sure there are some, but, for me, very few. Apple could ditch the notch on the 2020 iPhone, according to new leaksThe notch that arrived with the iPhone X in 2017 may not make it to all of the 2020 iPhone range, according to reports based on recently published patents as well as information from inside the supply chain.
LetsGoDigital suggests that the patents and leaked data that it's gathered point to the top-end 2020 iPhone having a notch-free front display, with Touch ID moved under the screen and Face ID ditched.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 19, 2020 14:43:39 GMT -8
My wife is only 64, so she won't be required to take yearly RMD withdrawals for another 6 years. Actually she now has until she turns 72 instead of 70.5 with the passage of the SECURE Act.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 19, 2020 16:30:46 GMT -8
Wait, if you believe in the Apple story, ride out a share price pullback unless you're in your 70's, in which case, sell 'em if you need the money? Hey, here's the thing, JD, even those in their 70's need to make sure their money will last as long as they do. Who knows, they may even make it into their 80's. OK Boomer.
But seriously folks, just from an actuarial standpoint, if there were a major pullback, obviously a 40-yr-old has more time to ride it out than a 70-something. I tell my students that the one thing they have on their side is time.
With that said, my parents are still all-in Apple. But my dad (Now almost 80, a disabled middle class guy at 50, I/AAPL made him a one-percenter) wouldn't live a bit differently if you added a 0 to his net worth. Still turning off lights and not using the heater in January and shopping at the 99-cent store.
Truth is, especially if we get another split, I think there are a *lot* of legs left in AAPL. But I definitely root for all the FAANG's to shoot for a 10-figure market cap. It lets the "OMG I DO DECLARE I HAVE THE VAPORS PARABOLIC!" knotheads on CNBC breathlessly hector about something other than us for a change. I hate these guys yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater when were the only ones in the theater.
I just don't understand whomever programs for CNBC. What would they do differently if they were trying for bad ratings? I think they should have a one-on-one interview show that slowly discusses things instead of the talk over each other for sound bytes white noise. Like a Charlie Rose format, but with a host with an actual personality, preferably who keeps his paws to himself.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 19, 2020 18:05:07 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 19, 2020 21:32:30 GMT -8
My wife and I are big fans of the Apple Watch. We bought the first release of the watch, wore them for over 3 years, and just upgraded to a newer model last year. I can't help but notice Apple Watches everywhere we go and, on several occasions, on TV shows. It's a wonderful product, in my opinion. So, anyway, the Apple Watch Series 4 and later have this feature called fall detection: Use fall detection with Apple WatchHere's how Apple describes it: If Apple Watch Series 4 or later detects a hard fall while you're wearing your watch, it taps you on the wrist, sounds an alarm, and displays an alert. You can choose to contact emergency services or dismiss the alert by pressing the Digital Crown, tapping Close in the upper-left corner, or tapping "I'm OK." ===== Now my reason for upgrading to the new model had nothing whatsoever to do with fall detection. Yeah, it's a nice feature for *older* people, and *when* I get older it might be nice, but I certainly don't need it now because I'm pretty light on my feet...usually. A few days ago, I was bounding walking up the two stairs to our front door when I walked partially out of one of my sandals (hey, I live in California...don't judge me) and fell forward, landing on my elbow and knee as I hit the porch. My first thought, as you might imagine, was that I hoped none of the neighbors saw me fall. But the second thought was, damn, my Apple Watch caught it. Cool. No lingering pain except to what little dignity I have, but check out my Apple Watch screen shot:
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2020 4:53:32 GMT -8
Wait, if you believe in the Apple story, ride out a share price pullback unless you're in your 70's, in which case, sell 'em if you need the money? Hey, here's the thing, JD, even those in their 70's need to make sure their money will last as long as they do. Who knows, they may even make it into their 80's. OK Boomer. But seriously folks, just from an actuarial standpoint, if there were a major pullback, obviously a 40-yr-old has more time to ride it out than a 70-something. I tell my students that the one thing they have on their side is time.
With that said, my parents are still all-in Apple. But my dad (Now almost 80, a disabled middle class guy at 50, I/AAPL made him a one-percenter) wouldn't live a bit differently if you added a 0 to his net worth. Still turning off lights and not using the heater in January and shopping at the 99-cent store. Truth is, especially if we get another split, I think there are a *lot* of legs left in AAPL. But I definitely root for all the FAANG's to shoot for a 10-figure market cap. It lets the "OMG I DO DECLARE I HAVE THE VAPORS PARABOLIC!" knotheads on CNBC breathlessly hector about something other than us for a change. I hate these guys yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater when were the only ones in the theater. I just don't understand whomever programs for CNBC. What would they do differently if they were trying for bad ratings? I think they should have a one-on-one interview show that slowly discusses things instead of the talk over each other for sound bytes white noise. Like a Charlie Rose format, but with a host with an actual personality, preferably who keeps his paws to himself. Time is maybe one of the most valuable resources each of us have that is an unknown quantity, that once spent cannot be replaced and many times must be used to acquire the wisdom to know how to spend the time we have left. I’m sure we all have at some point looked back and said “If only I had used that time more wisely, where would I be today”. JD, your students are lucky to have you there to provide direction.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 20, 2020 12:39:53 GMT -8
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Jan 20, 2020 19:55:27 GMT -8
=== Cautions: Sentiment May Reverse.
When playing with emotion, one should be cautioned that emotion tends to be "temperamental." You may notice the Apple sentiment, as measured the way described above, has been volatile and can easily reverse itself.
=== Whoa, wait a minute! You mean to tell me that this incredible momentum that AAPL has seen over the last few months could, not only stop, but go in the other direction? Get the hell out of here! /s Just the fact that the author felt the need to include that caution in his article made me wonder how any long-term investor or trader would not already fully understand that. My wife and I started investing in AAPL 20 years ago based on the *fundamentals* of Apple Inc without knowing about all the technical calculations that could be done. Half the time, when folks on AFB start using commonly used stock market terms, I have to search for the definition. But check out this exchange between a commenter and the author. So, I think he's saying that I could use the formula: (math redacted for social science majors) However, I believe a more straightforward method would be to invest in a strong company like Apple and then hold the stock long term until/unless you lose confidence, for any reason, in the company. There's sentiment on Apple and sentiment on the stock. Customers drive the former, whereas investors and ANALysts drive the latter. But too often, IMO, the latter do not properly take into consideration the former. And I think a mistake fundamental analysts can make (I was just listening to that dreadfully dour Stephen L Weiss and his rubber wig drone on about Apple fundamentals on CNBC this week), is they never account for customer sentiment. Just the balance sheet stuff. But (IMO) part of fundamentals is how consumers feel about the company, and the stickiness of its ecosystem (this is the original reason I BOT AAPL in the early 90's, the love of Apple products that users have). I view this a lot more important than whether Apple sells 71 million phones in a quarter vs 70 million (as if these numbers just randomly fall out of the ether).
The bottom line is, every December there's that top-10 list of things people want for Christmas, and Apple products are in the top 4 or 5. An iconic brand that customers love (and in many cases are addicted to). And people aren't going to just abandon iPhones because Samsung comes out with some bendable screen that has more megapixels or Ghz. iOS is sticky for reasons I won't recap here because you all already know that. But it's an incalculable loyalty advantage that few, if any companies have, which doesn't show up in a balance sheet; but sure as hell it drives it going forward.
Amazon customers are loyal - to a point. Keep increasing the cost of Prime and I think they'll bail. Regardless, I see no path to Amazon becoming wildly profitable. Market growth, yes, assuming it can weather the antitrust attacks (some of which are naked protectionist shakedowns in the EU). But the margins will always be thin.
Tesla customers love their cars, but the company isn't even eligible for the SPY because it isn't profitable (one quarter doesn't count). And then there's the fact that Tesla doesn't have a grown up CEO. It's like Apple 1.0 with Steve, except Apple 1.0 was profitable. But I think Tesla would be hit just as hard (or harder) as Apple 1.0 was by its founder leaving (I predict he will, and major investor tears 😭). Plus, EV's aren't even a real market yet. If/when EV's are, there are plenty of experienced automakers who will jump right in. I don't see Tesla ever having a commanding share of any real market (for the record, I rode my 485-487.5 TSLA spread into expiry. Don't fight the tape!). 1.5X GM's market cap, that's just ludicrous (if any of this offends you, you may be in a cult rather than an investment. Blink in Morse code if you are being held against your will). And customers just loving a product isn't enough. Jeep Wrangler owners love their cars just as much as Tesla owners. As do Corvette owners and 911 owners (the two highest customer satisfaction cars on Consumer Reports). How FCA and GM doing? Porsche is doing well, but a lot of 911 owners despise its foray into SUV's as blasphemy.
No, Apple's stickiness is unique. That's the beauty of an OS that blends throughout various devices in the ecosystem. Apple should be more meteor-resistant if it fast follows with a meteor that runs on iOS. Did any customers feel this way about RIM or Nokia or IBM or Microsoft or GE? Obviously not Microsoft, since their phones sold like coldcakes. LOL Microsoft phones. Then there's the refrain that everyone who will buy an iPhone already has done so and thus growth has tapered (funny, as soon as they reclassified Apple to a value stock, value over-performed growth stocks 📈 🤑). This is a valid argument, but first, I don't think it's necessarily true (are the ~3.5 billion poor people who use Android phones going to stay poor forever, or do developing countries develop?). Part of it is cyclical; the US economy is doing better than the rest of the world, including China. China will rebound eventually (Trump made them tap out, so they can get up off the mat if they behave themselves.). And iPhones aren't TV's (SJ: The margins suck and people only buy new ones every 10 years). People buy new iPhones every year or two. And the margins are awesome. I think the iPhone growth question remains TBD.
But even if it were true that sales have permanently tapered off, I thought the big knock on Apple was that they needed to diversify from iPhone (something nobody seems to say about other one hit wonders like FB or Google or NTFX or XOM or CMG). Well, Apple has, and the good news is that those 1.5B installed base iPhones are little salesmen in the pockets of people with incomes to spend on services and wearables that run in the same sticky ecosystem. Even if Apple never increased its installed base by a single iPhone, that's one hell of a sales force multiplier for products and services that on their own could become Dow component-sized.
Who the hell else has got that? FB has a membership base that large, but do people love the FB experience so much that they'll buy any product FB sells? I don't know anyone who loves FB. Like Windows, they just treat it as a necessary evil; in FB's case, people use it to see friends and family baby pictures and how fat their high school rivals have gotten. If Amazon and Google can't sell phones, why would creepy Facebook be able to? Zuckerberg is his own worst enemy. He really should hide his weird robot self from public view. Anyway, I ramble. Thinking of finally starting a blog. It's good for the brain. I do think it's a good time to solicit some bear views. Anybody? Bueller?
[/b] [/quote] The bold. During the old days with the forum in the hands of the Brits it seemed like we had naysayers (bears) in fair numbers. Nowadays there seems to be so few that travel that path, that desire to share their views on AAPL on forums such as this. Capitulation? ? Perhaps, or just perhaps waiting for that downturn so they can crow about being right, for just that once, on Apple. I miss reading your responses to them as well others from that forum. As far as the blog I would remind you that you brought that up once before several years ago, I asked for the address if you decided to do so, I repeat my request.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
Posts: 3,944
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Post by platon on Jan 20, 2020 20:48:27 GMT -8
OK Boomer. But seriously folks, just from an actuarial standpoint, if there were a major pullback, obviously a 40-yr-old has more time to ride it out than a 70-something. I tell my students that the one thing they have on their side is time.
With that said, my parents are still all-in Apple. But my dad (Now almost 80, a disabled middle class guy at 50, I/AAPL made him a one-percenter) wouldn't live a bit differently if you added a 0 to his net worth. Still turning off lights and not using the heater in January and shopping at the 99-cent store. Truth is, especially if we get another split, I think there are a *lot* of legs left in AAPL. But I definitely root for all the FAANG's to shoot for a 10-figure market cap. It lets the "OMG I DO DECLARE I HAVE THE VAPORS PARABOLIC!" knotheads on CNBC breathlessly hector about something other than us for a change. I hate these guys yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater when were the only ones in the theater. I just don't understand whomever programs for CNBC. What would they do differently if they were trying for bad ratings? I think they should have a one-on-one interview show that slowly discusses things instead of the talk over each other for sound bytes white noise. Like a Charlie Rose format, but with a host with an actual personality, preferably who keeps his paws to himself. Time is maybe one of the most valuable resources each of us have that is an unknown quantity, that once spent cannot be replaced and many times must be used to acquire the wisdom to know how to spend the time we have left. I’m sure we all have at some point looked back and said “If only I had used that time more wisely, where would I be today”. JD, your students are lucky to have you there to provide direction. JD is a rarity equal to the seldom seen rafflesia or corpse flower. An outspoken Libertarian on a college campus in California who is not afraid to share his views. I would guess that the stink that JD's outspoken words raise is equal to that of the pungent rafflesia, in the morning staff meetings, if indeed they are aware. His students are indeed lucky to have him. I tried to convince him to move to Texas years ago but of course he could not. We would be honored to have him, at least in my part of the State. Of course I am grateful to JD and others from these forums who convinced me to stay invested in Apple and to use their products, and I also wish I had done it much earlier in life. I am one of those who has reached a level that I am not heavily invested in "any" stock anymore, thanks to AAPL.
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