JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 5, 2013 21:59:28 GMT -8
Exactly. When Apple is the one doing the creative destruction of its own products, that's a hell of a lot different than the iPod killing CD's and their players. Apple has been so consistently innovative for so long, we have to start counting the times it has creatively destroyed its own creative destruction. See also, PC's. Heard a great quote from the guy hired to make AT&T more innovative, John Donovan: "Invention is creating something new. Innovation is where you consummate things with the customer." Good ideas are useless without a market to sell them into. This is the genius of Steve Jobs and Apple that so many simpleton Apple observers* don't understand. *Not referring to anyone here (unless a BI writer is lurking). Speaking (so brilliantly that I shall quote myself) of simpletons who are unable to understand innovation, this article from Fortune in July lays out just how amazing it is that MSFT was ever successful: And this more recent article on MSFT is just devastating: Microsoft Is Fast Turning Into A SideshowI honestly believe MSFT will ultimately have a RIMM-like decline.
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Post by bryanyc on Jan 5, 2013 22:42:20 GMT -8
All standard disclaimers: MHO, WAG, do-your-own-due-diligence:Holy cr*p! I have good EW news! Thanks to the long-awaited return of AAPL-EW guru Mace, my little pea brain FINALLY pulled together an answer to an EW riddle that has been perplexing us since 644! Turned in homework to my EW teacher Avi, who gave it the thumbs-up! For everyone who doesn't give a rip about my EW babbling, I shall cut to the chase: IF we can bounce at 524-ish on Monday and subsequently take out 555 with volume, THEN the bottom is in.After which, the minimum, shrimpiest, limp d*ck, worst-case projected EW WAG target for 2013 (can't do timeframe any better than that, sorry): 815. The if-not scenario just means we keep taking it level by level. Count off every 5 points for back-of-napkin support levels: 515 ---> 510 ---> 505 ---> etc. Classic Post. Looking at the trend line of the past 5 years it is obvious that the bottom of the channel for the end of 2013 is around 800. So that would make sense - though only limp sense. That is to say that it could be, uh.... better.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 5, 2013 23:00:27 GMT -8
Classic Post. Looking at the trend line of the past 5 years it is obvious that the bottom of the channel for the end of 2013 is around 800. So that would make sense - though only limp sense. That is to say that it could be, uh.... better. Not sure what trend line you are using, but the bottom of the LT trend line is right at 700 for Jan 1,2014.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 5, 2013 23:09:29 GMT -8
Could be worse! Good news is, if the trendline holds, we have a point of reference for WTF buying zones. And for those who dare, Jan 14 690/700s look to be a 600% or so gain at max value.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2013 23:10:55 GMT -8
I'm starting to lean towards analystwhoresagogo.com, or anythingforahit.com AAPLHATE.com you might even get hits by real haters. lol To be sure, I will not allow comments. People will be able to email me, but this will not be a social site.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2013 0:02:13 GMT -8
Exactly. When Apple is the one doing the creative destruction of its own products, that's a hell of a lot different than the iPod killing CD's and their players. Apple has been so consistently innovative for so long, we have to start counting the times it has creatively destroyed its own creative destruction. See also, PC's. Heard a great quote from the guy hired to make AT&T more innovative, John Donovan: "Invention is creating something new. Innovation is where you consummate things with the customer." Good ideas are useless without a market to sell them into. This is the genius of Steve Jobs and Apple that so many simpleton Apple observers* don't understand. *Not referring to anyone here (unless a BI writer is lurking). Speaking (so brilliantly that I shall quote myself) of simpletons who are unable to understand innovation, this article from Fortune in July lays out just how amazing it is that MSFT was ever successful: And this more recent article on MSFT is just devastating: Microsoft Is Fast Turning Into A SideshowI honestly believe MSFT will ultimately have a RIMM-like decline. It starts in 2013. Becomes apparent in 2014, one year before Ballmer's departure.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2013 0:21:19 GMT -8
AAPLHATE.com you might even get hits by real haters. lol this will not be a social site. Well that's weird, because when I think "friendly social butterfly fluttering about," I think Gregg.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 6, 2013 5:43:29 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 6:46:17 GMT -8
this will not be a social site. Well that's weird, because when I think "friendly social butterfly fluttering about," I think Gregg. This is funny to me.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 6, 2013 7:03:01 GMT -8
I am going to start a blog that exposes this king of crap. All I am going to do is post the offending article, with a follow up of facts. I'm looking for a blog name that immediately identifies its purpose. Any ideas? Apple FUD Busters
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 7:03:56 GMT -8
IF we can bounce at 524-ish on Monday and subsequently take out 555 with volume, THEN the bottom is in. Lovey, you are amazing. You look for optimism whenever possible which I like, but 524 is only $3 away from the close. Heck, we could easily open below that number. The drop from 555 looks almost exactly like the drop from 595, which makes me very uncomfortable. Lovey, there are conflicting divergences also. The daily sucks, the weekly is our friend. Please get us out of here, I am so tired of this. (Public service announcement) The 524ish number is the 61.8% retrace number. The trend line on the top is so pronounced and dropping quickly. My fear is that we meander until earnings
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 6, 2013 7:05:45 GMT -8
I am going to start a blog that exposes this king of crap. All I am going to do is post the offending article, with a follow up of facts. I'm looking for a blog name that immediately identifies its purpose. Any ideas? Apple FUD Busters I think JD came up with the name without even trying, Thurmanville. ;D
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Post by roni on Jan 6, 2013 8:07:29 GMT -8
Total return (10 years): KO - 119.98% AAPL - 7,040.92% Total return (20 years): KO - 445.01% AAPL - 3,627.02% Exactly, and which one has the higher p/e? There is a relationship between the long-term dividend growth rate of close to 10% and the P/E of Coke. There also seems to be, at times, a complete disconnect between total return/growth investors and equity income investors. Many do not speak the same language, it seems sometimes Apple is a baby in the dividend world. Once it increases its dividend by > 10% for 3 and more years, it will start getting more attention in the dividend growth investing world. FTR, I do not own KO in my dividend growth portfolio. Apple is the only company with a dividend less than 3% of the 21 positions there AAPL LEAPS are the major component of the growth side of our portfolios. While the recent period of time has not been fun there, I am not worried about it.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 6, 2013 8:50:02 GMT -8
P/E has proven to be a worthless factor when trying to determine the fair valuation of a company. We've spent the entire quarter at historic lows. Let P/E go.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 6, 2013 9:09:15 GMT -8
P/E has proven to be a worthless factor when trying to determine the fair valuation of a company. We've spent the entire quarter at historic lows. Let P/E go. Yes, let my P/Eople go.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 10:20:38 GMT -8
Try the veal!
As a sentiment indicator the multiple has some use. As a roadmap it is utterly useless.
As a baseline it may yet be useful. What, you think AAPL gets a multiple of 9x ttm EPS anytime soon? Maybe if the whole market tanks again.
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Post by mace on Jan 6, 2013 10:41:41 GMT -8
Try the veal! As a sentiment indicator the multiple has some use. As a roadmap it is utterly useless. As a baseline it may yet be useful. What, you think AAPL gets a multiple of 9x ttm EPS anytime soon? Maybe if the whole market tanks again. Good thinking. Not fixated on how an indicator should be used. Very good.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 10:44:21 GMT -8
Thanks, I think?
My point is just that multiple isn't useless. Though with AAPL, the reality is to get used to below-market multiples until decisively proven otherwise. :/
Hey, are you even still "involved" in the mkt Mace? Just curious.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 6, 2013 10:48:32 GMT -8
So we need to be prepared for all the nonsense that may go on this week with the electronics show. I have zero doubt that Samesung will make an effort to cause a splash. Furthermore, even though they have been manufacturing televisions for decades and never delivering anything earth shattering – all it takes is rumors or a hint of an AAPL TV emerging and suddenly – BOOM - they will be out there with some type of television that has bells and whistles in an attempt to steal AAPL’s thunder. That’s my guess. Samesung has declared war on AAPL on so many levels – I pray that AAPL will leap frog in some way this year. It’s amazing how pharmaceutical companies can protect their R&D for decades at a time but the same courtesy is not extended to technology. It’s frustrating…add this to the list of life’s injustices in the world of business.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 10:50:04 GMT -8
Samsung is already _trying_ smart TVs. And it takes five seconds to check that. Context is important. allthingsd.com/20120828/samsungs-smart-tv-isnt-as-smart-as-it-thinks-it-is/Don't take this as any kind of attack, OK? Save the prayers. Something's been up since the Galaxy S. And Android and no Google Maps parity. And Apple has moved forward. Apple's North Star isn't anyone else's. So long as that doesn't change, Apple will be fine.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 6, 2013 11:05:51 GMT -8
Samsung is already _trying_ smart TVs. And it takes five seconds to check that. Context is important. allthingsd.com/20120828/samsungs-smart-tv-isnt-as-smart-as-it-thinks-it-is/Don't take this as any kind of attack, OK? Save the prayers. Something's been up since the Galaxy S. And Android and no Google Maps parity. And Apple has moved forward. Apple's North Star isn't anyone else's. So long as that doesn't change, Apple will be fine. 1. I use the term "pray" as a figure of speech ... trust me, I'm not down on my knees over this...This is a conversation amongst friends/acquaintances to help enrich each others views...not feeling attacked at all. 2. I know what Samsung has out right now and I'm sure they will improve it in some way but I'm expecting some fanfare and bullshit because that's the trajectory they have been on these last few months ... so I'm just pointing it out because the show is this week and wondering how the media will cover it and how people may react to AAPL.....because, they will, unless the techies are unimpressed by what they see. IMHO
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 11:11:50 GMT -8
P/E has proven to be a worthless factor when trying to determine the fair valuation of a company. We've spent the entire quarter at historic lows. Let P/E go. Yes, let my P/Eople go. ROFL!! Love it!!
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Post by mace on Jan 6, 2013 11:11:55 GMT -8
... Hey, are you even still "involved" in the mkt Mace? Just curious. If "involved" means trading, I was never involved. Current position is buy n hold with verticals (Jan 14 $600/$700).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 11:13:15 GMT -8
AAPL is a doomed, trite, cliche, evolutionary not revolutionary, tired, ossified, derivative, corrupt, consumer-hostile and human rights abusing corporate thief every year.
For me, it's like water off a duck's back.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 11:15:40 GMT -8
Mace, have I mentioned how GREAT it is to see you?!?!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 11:16:10 GMT -8
... Hey, are you even still "involved" in the mkt Mace? Just curious. If "involved" means trading, I was never involved. Current position is buy n hold with verticals (Jan 14 $600/$700). Same as before works for me.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 11:17:19 GMT -8
... Hey, are you even still "involved" in the mkt Mace? Just curious. If "involved" means trading, I was never involved. Current position is buy n hold with verticals (Jan 14 $600/$700). Ahem. Never? Non-Alzheimers buddies (such as moi) might remember a slight dabbling in butterflies perchance?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 11:21:12 GMT -8
I think we're small people to him now. Last I checked mace does trade here and there if only to stay sharp and dialed in.
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Post by kloot on Jan 6, 2013 11:43:03 GMT -8
lots of doom and gloom among AAPL bulls after friday's drop. the last 3 months have been damn exhausting (and costly). big picture, we've seen 500 get tested at least 3 times (seemingly more?) and each time, buyers stepped in. selling momentum has waned. (lovey's positive divergence) and, when everyone and their uncle and their barber came out and reduced price targets (and some downgrades), the stock rose. that is supposed to indicate a bottom. lovey posted something earlier in the weekend about how more AAPL selling would be boring. that stuck with me, and i totally agree. like, things run its course. even RIMM and NFLX rose up eventually. AAPL is no RIMM or NFLX. of course, i also thought these things 100 points ago, so i got that going for me cheers to holding Fib support, and taking aim at trip-5s. it's high time for AAPL to beast it.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 6, 2013 12:33:44 GMT -8
While a proponent of LEAPS, I wanted to clarify something. LEAPS give one a a longer window to sell at a pop in the stock, but, the year+ window doesn't mean one has to hold to expiry. In fact, Travis Lewis makes the opposite point in a recent tweet. If one looks at the preposterous amount of calls that have piled up over the last year+ on the Jan 13's, it is clear that the MR's (Market Rapers) will try to keep AAPL down; 2) LEAPS should be dumped before this effect starts; and 3) the period between expiry and earnings might be the time to look for popage. Key put support and call resistance strikes circled: Just something for the despairing riverboat gambler to think about these next two weeks.
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