chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2020 7:16:44 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 1, 2020 7:48:18 GMT -8
The last link from Appleinsider is worth the reading. Could this become the Black Swan that everyone fears?
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2020 7:53:51 GMT -8
The last link from Appleinsider is worth the reading. Could this become the Black Swan that everyone fears? Well then, please accept my apologies for the others.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Feb 1, 2020 9:23:58 GMT -8
The last link from Appleinsider is worth the reading. Could this become the Black Swan that everyone fears? Well then, please accept my apologies for the others. Apologies accepted.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 1, 2020 9:55:11 GMT -8
Just to pick up on the 2019-nCoV (novel coronavirus) discussion, I'm no public health expert or statistician, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn where one of the janitors had a slight cough. I'm sticking to my opinion that this is all overblown. We live in a time where, ironically, scary news propagates through social media like a runaway virus. But so much of the information on the Internet is total bullshit. Even some of my friends, educated, highly intelligent, and wildly successful businessmen, are spreading FUD that has no basis in reality. A friend of mine just texted me that he is really sick and he thinks he caught 2019-nCoV on a plane. Three days earlier, he thought his son's girlfriend had caught it from her college Chinese roommate. How many of us have stories or have heard stories like this, and just passed them along? It's all bullshit.
The flu has a worse risk of transmission and death, but we've all known about influenza for thousands of years, and we all accept that risk, and most people don't even get a flu shot. But a new or novel disease, now that's scary! The unknown is always more scary than the known, and business and markets react accordingly (few things are more scary to business than unforeseeable risks, including upcoming regulations).
Again, the other day I saw a dozen Asian people (almost certainly certainly Chinese based on where I live) wearing masks in my local grocery store. Did they know something regular Americans don't? "OMG they're Chinese they know something buy all the masks!" More likely, they were Skyping their friends and family back in China who have total distrust of their government's bullshit propaganda, so they reflexively believe the opposite of what they are being told by Beijing. A healthy distrust of any government is a good policy, but at the time there were *zero* recorded cases of person to person spread of 2019-nCoV in the United States. To my Google-fed knowledge, at the time of this writing, there exists a *single case* of person-to-person contact in the US. This was a spouse-to-spouse transmission. Here's my take: When you hear a story or person talking about the "death rate" of a pathogen, be suspicious. Public health experts don't just look at that. A 100% death rate would meaningless if the host dies before he can transmit the virus or it can mutate. A key stat is what's called the basic reproduction number, or R0. This is basically the number of transmitted cases one case causes (extremely simplified explanation). But even this number isn't that helpful because how a disease is transmitted is a major factor (HIV can't be transmitted via air, so most people have a zero percent change of catching it).
Also, a virus can spread like wildfire in a clinical setting, where medical professionals can all get sick from patients, but that's because they are up close and personal with them. So 14 medical professionals caring for a single patient can get sick and them the R0 number is >14 OMFG! But anyone who isn't within three feet of the airborne droplets has almost no chance of catching it. 2019-nCoV supposedly first spread in an open air fish market where people sneeze and put their grubby hands all over food people eat. That's certainly a perfect incubation storm for a high R0 number, but not indicative of real world transmission rates.
But if you want to look at mortality rates, well, SARS had roughly the same R0 number as 2019-nCoV, but SARS had a 10% death rate. So far, 2019-nCoV seems to be around 4%. For comparison, the 2018-2019 flu epidemic was around 7%! Also, how many of the deaths were elderly or otherwise immunocompromised people, those demographics which usually die from flu? Many if not most deaths from 2019-nCoV are from secondary causes, like pneumonia. This phenomenon is more common in people with cardiopulmonary disease, people with weakened immune systems, infants, and older adults. Not that we don't care about such people, but they are not representative of the world at large, or those working at Foxconn. Anyway, I think this is all what an old Poli Sci prof of mine called a "media crisis." A scary urgent OMG event that the media creates for ratings and relevancy purposes. And yes that does not help the stock price or supply chain or retail well-being. But I consider it a buying opportunity, not an existential threat.
OK, but but you ask, what about the China quarantine and Apple stores in China are closing and supply chain damage?! What a strange paradox that governments and businesses acting with an abundance of caution (as opposed to reckless disregard) is punished by the markets? This will all be baked in to the stock price and earnings expectations, and when the reality is far less serious than the fears, the earnings beat will be all the more glorious. We might even go up more than a dollar next beat.
And I say this as someone who is a germaphobe in general. I open doors with my shirt sleeve, pump gas with a doggie-do bag in my hand, and go through more hand sanitizer than the average hospital nursing staff. I even wash my Rockstar energy drinks before putting them in the refrigerator. This is unwarranted panic, IMO.
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2020 12:40:12 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Yes my target numbers have not been accurate from my Sept weekly thread. but I can afford to be wrong by a few months being in cash and now in puts. Apple going up 110 points since then made me excited about the opportunity that the incoming crash will bring and scared at the same time. Many will lose billions Those who bought 10 years ago will feel serious pain.
TC needs to be fired. He said minimal impact in China and they are simply starting sterile efforts in China stores. Since he loves Chinese data and relied on its government for permission, he waited until after market close on Friday to announce all store closures. Keep in mind what happened last time all stores were open but for some crazy reason sales dropped 20% in China alone. If you think they will open stores in one week I have a bridge to sell you. There is plenty of data on the net about the virus outbreak. Those who think this is just another flu will be sadly mistaken. Yes we could look at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner.
I see a 12% drop next week and stock will be halted at least 2 times this quarter with letters about restatement of sales for Q2. Won’t bore you with TA numbers but a p/e of 26 when net income up $2 billion in 2 years should make many pause. Just look at what happened to p/e when it was this high.
Tim Cook should have listened to many who said get out. For profits and his love of socialism and communism he chose the latter. I would get out and follow my advise on Apple. We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2020 12:48:57 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Promises, promises...
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Post by zzmac on Feb 1, 2020 13:19:23 GMT -8
He leaves and Apple goes on it's best run in years. He comes back and Apple is headed for the dumpster on Monday. Make it 24 months.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 1, 2020 13:22:16 GMT -8
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Post by nwjade on Feb 1, 2020 13:56:04 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Feb 1, 2020 15:26:59 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Yes my target numbers have not been accurate from my Sept weekly thread. but I can afford to be wrong by a few months being in cash and now in puts. Apple going up 110 points since then made me excited about the opportunity that the incoming crash will bring and scared at the same time. Many will lose billions Those who bought 10 years ago will feel serious pain. TC needs to be fired. He said minimal impact in China and they are simply starting sterile efforts in China stores. Since he loves Chinese data and relied on its government for permission, he waited until after market close on Friday to announce all store closures. Keep in mind what happened last time all stores were open but for some crazy reason sales dropped 20% in China alone. If you think they will open stores in one week I have a bridge to sell you. There is plenty of data on the net about the virus outbreak. Those who think this is just another flu will be sadly mistaken. Yes we could look at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner. I see a 12% drop next week and stock will be halted at least 2 times this quarter with letters about restatement of sales for Q2. Won’t bore you with TA numbers but a p/e of 26 when net income up $2 billion in 2 years should make many pause. Just look at what happened to p/e when it was this high. Tim Cook should have listened to many who said get out. For profits and his love of socialism and communism he chose the latter. I would get out and follow my advise on Apple. We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years. Dearest Sponge - I see you have not smartened up much and that you are still a good contrarian indicator for all things Apple. Very few epidemics in modern history have killed even 100 thousand so why would you throw out the 20 million number ? Apple is still a great long term investment and the PE has only risen to where it should be with our well planned out and fabulous services portfolio along with millions and millions of wearables being sold to people all over the world. It’s not gonna end anytime soon Sponge! Apple is no longer a device company and as soon as you and Tony sacadonuts figure that out the sooner you can start being right again. Store closings will prolly hurt for a few days but will also provide great buying opportunities for those who believe in Apple. The best advice for times like this is just the opposite of what sponge is advising (don’t panic).
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Feb 1, 2020 16:33:50 GMT -8
I say it isn’t important what reality is, it’s what the perception that the market has that determines what the share price is. Trade accordingly. If this all goes away on Monday then great, but if not, fasten your seatbelts because this will be a rough ride. Just a thought.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 1, 2020 19:24:07 GMT -8
And I say this as someone who is a germaphobe in general. I open doors with my shirt sleeve, pump gas with a doggie-do bag in my hand, and go through more hand sanitizer than the average hospital nursing staff. LOL! I'll have to admit, that is new territory for me. I'm going to have to hang out at gas stations near Whole Foods in California more often, just to see that in action. Chevron? Wow, that brings up so many ideas, especially for CA. Wearing long sleeves, in SoCal? Organic gasoline? Lettuce cups at the dog park, to keep from using plastic? Thanks JD! (still enjoying tangerines picked at xmas in SoCal....and not even washing them before pealing. Tasty Algerian Tangerines...the tang is worth the seeds)
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Post by therealmercel on Feb 1, 2020 19:37:49 GMT -8
Dearest Sponge, So you are retracting your prediction that AAPL won’t see $223 again in 1-2 years (when we were at $218 or so).
JD - I’m a germaphobe too but u take it to a higher level. Just curious, how often do u get sick?
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 1, 2020 19:40:39 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Yes my target numbers have not been accurate from my Sept weekly thread. but I can afford to be wrong by a few months being in cash and now in puts. Apple going up 110 points since then made me excited about the opportunity that the incoming crash will bring and scared at the same time. Many will lose billions Those who bought 10 years ago will feel serious pain. Thanks Sponge. FTR, there's not that many people with billions, so many won't lose that. Most that are billionaires don't have it in AAPL. Personally, I think those of us who bought mostly over 10 years ago won't feel much pain. The dividend and all, along with a lower cost average. A 50% dip would only bring us back to 13 months ago. Not pretty. But not deadly either. A dip will happen. The timing and magnitude is what isn't known yet. This might be the timing and cause. Or this might cause a minor correction and remind people about risk/reward. We don't know yet which it will be. Some people believe climate change will kill off all the trees in 15 years, even here in the mountains. Others believe in chem trails. There's lots of stuff out there. But even stuff that doesn't kill off the population at large can really stir things up, just as other things have. Good luck out there. Bullish or Bearish, sometimes it's best to not go fully into your belief too early.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 1, 2020 20:11:21 GMT -8
Dearest Sponge, So you are retracting your prediction that AAPL won’t see $223 again in 1-2 years (when we were at $218 or so). JD - I’m a germaphobe too but u take it to a higher level. Just curious, how often do u get sick? WRT our AAPL Great Sage, I have a general rule about not following anyone's advice who can't even spell "advice" correctly. I almost never get sick. Maybe once every 2 years. Never touch a doorknob with my hands. Anything I do touch I always have hand sanitizer in my car. Always. I have lots going on in my life and can't call in sick, including elderly parents and a dog with cancer. So much productivity lost in the US just from colds. And we already talked about how flu kills. And don't even get me started on my anti-food poisoning precautions. Had that in 2018 and I don't intend to ever again. I looked like a sprinkler.
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Post by zzmac on Feb 1, 2020 21:04:02 GMT -8
Trump promised to cure cancer. Maybe his big Super Bowl commercial will outline how he’s going to cure the coronavirus. Maybe throw a tariff on it and it’ll go away.
Happy Super Bowl Sunday!!
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Post by deasys on Feb 2, 2020 0:36:08 GMT -8
We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years. "K after studying the charts a little more, I think 228 was the high and we wont see it again for a few years."- Sponge, Oct 2, 2019
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Post by appledoc on Feb 2, 2020 6:38:53 GMT -8
Carrying this over from intraday. With coronaviruses, most cases will be mild. Like a common cold. It's not an apples to apples comparison. And anyone touting the 2-3% mortality rate of this new coronavirus is being disingenuous. Thanks Appledoc What's your reading or opinion on a mortality rate, or how it compares to one of the standard strains of the Flu? The 2.2% I put out there was just simple division based on the numbers China put out (as of maybe 2 days ago), but like I mentioned you can't necessarily compare that to something else, if you don't know the comparison of how the numbers are reported. Especially when dealing with a different countries statistics. Personally, while I've had the Flu before (2-3 years ago it actually hit some of the family hard, much more than the run of the mill sickness), I've never been to a doctor about it or been tested. But I figure it's still there in the statistics, somehow. Just like TV watching, it's calculated from a smaller subset. They don't send everyone two one dollar bills (we were randomly selected, and did their survey a couple years ago). To answer the last question first, the CDC's influenza incidence numbers are generated through mathematical modeling which is built from data obtained from their Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Network. So they don't capture every case, but this something they've worked with for years. The data is good. Hospitalizations and deaths will be obtained through billing codes and death certificates. A small proportion of cases may be missed or misdiagnosed. Influenza mortality rate is something like 0.05%. The mortality rate of a superimposed pneumonia (a PNA you get as a consequence of having the flu) is closer to 7%. The mortality rate of this new coronavirus is touted as 2-3%, but the denominator (incidence) is just not accurate. We're talking about trying to capture cases of a new viral infection in a country of 1.5 billion, many of whom have poor access to health care. Good luck with that. I suggest tuning out the mainstream media and following the tracker from JHU. gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6This is still a China problem, not a global problem. Don't be surprised if you see a spike in the deaths over the next week. The US patient didn't develop radiographic signs of a pneumonia until 9 days into his illness.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 2, 2020 7:40:24 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Yes my target numbers have not been accurate from my Sept weekly thread. but I can afford to be wrong by a few months being in cash and now in puts. Apple going up 110 points since then made me excited about the opportunity that the incoming crash will bring and scared at the same time. Many will lose billions Those who bought 10 years ago will feel serious pain. TC needs to be fired. He said minimal impact in China and they are simply starting sterile efforts in China stores. Since he loves Chinese data and relied on its government for permission, he waited until after market close on Friday to announce all store closures. Keep in mind what happened last time all stores were open but for some crazy reason sales dropped 20% in China alone. If you think they will open stores in one week I have a bridge to sell you. There is plenty of data on the net about the virus outbreak. Those who think this is just another flu will be sadly mistaken. Yes we could look at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner. I see a 12% drop next week and stock will be halted at least 2 times this quarter with letters about restatement of sales for Q2. Won’t bore you with TA numbers but a p/e of 26 when net income up $2 billion in 2 years should make many pause. Just look at what happened to p/e when it was this high. Tim Cook should have listened to many who said get out. For profits and his love of socialism and communism he chose the latter. I would get out and follow my advise on Apple. We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years. To say that Tim Cook loves socialism and communism is absurd. He works with China because it is the most hard-driving capitalist nation on earth, and can deliver quality products on spec and on time. This statement alone makes me wonder about the accuracy of ANY of your other statements, but I do share your concern that the virus will affect the stock more than most anticipate. I certainly would not BTFD in the near future.
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Post by firestorm on Feb 2, 2020 7:42:19 GMT -8
Dearest Sponge, So you are retracting your prediction that AAPL won’t see $223 again in 1-2 years (when we were at $218 or so). JD - I’m a germaphobe too but u take it to a higher level. Just curious, how often do u get sick? WRT our AAPL Great Sage, I have a general rule about not following anyone's advice who can't even spell "advice" correctly. I almost never get sick. Maybe once every 2 years. Never touch a doorknob with my hands. Anything I do touch I always have hand sanitizer in my car. Always. I have lots going on in my life and can't call in sick, including elderly parents and a dog with cancer. So much productivity lost in the US just from colds. And we already talked about how flu kills. And don't even get me started on my anti-food poisoning precautions. Had that in 2018 and I don't intend to ever again. I looked like a sprinkler. Hey, we want to know about your food poisoning, in detail. A sprinkler?
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Post by gtrplyr on Feb 2, 2020 8:26:58 GMT -8
AH ... the return of the Sponge!
I was wondering when you would show yourself around here again. I'm not going to even address the content of your post because it's obvious to anyone who is a regular on this forum that you have absolutely NO idea what you are talking about. You couldn't be more wrong ..... the ONLY person that does not realize this is you.
The BEST part of his post was that he wouldn't come back for 12 months .... nuff said.
BTW, the headline today is that Thai doctors have found a successful treatment for the Coronavirus ... hopefully this will prove true after further testing and we could see a very nice pop in the market.
Apple's sales and manufacturing will eventually catch up ... even after a few weeks of everything being shut down. People can be so short sighted when it comes to markets ..... and especially Apple. This will prove to be a blip ... as have many other things in the past.
Cheers to the longs .....
Go Niners!
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,087
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Post by Dave on Feb 2, 2020 12:47:11 GMT -8
Dearest Sponge, So you are retracting your prediction that AAPL won’t see $223 again in 1-2 years (when we were at $218 or so). JD - I’m a germaphobe too but u take it to a higher level. Just curious, how often do u get sick? WRT our AAPL Great Sage, I have a general rule about not following anyone's advice who can't even spell "advice" correctly. I almost never get sick. Maybe once every 2 years. Never touch a doorknob with my hands. Anything I do touch I always have hand sanitizer in my car. Always. I have lots going on in my life and can't call in sick, including elderly parents and a dog with cancer. So much productivity lost in the US just from colds. And we already talked about how flu kills. And don't even get me started on my anti-food poisoning precautions. Had that in 2018 and I don't intend to ever again. I looked like a sprinkler.
The imagined visual of that is not only troubling but also hilarious. Thank you.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 2, 2020 12:55:34 GMT -8
BTW, the headline today is that Thai doctors have found a successful treatment for the Coronavirus ... hopefully this will prove true after further testing and we could see a very nice pop in the market. Be careful with these reports. I would not give much credit to any of these stories unless they are vetted through a major journal. The NEJM case report is great to read.
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Post by silkstone on Feb 2, 2020 14:04:34 GMT -8
BTW, the headline today is that Thai doctors have found a successful treatment for the Coronavirus ... hopefully this will prove true after further testing and we could see a very nice pop in the market. Be careful with these reports. I would not give much credit to any of these stories unless they are vetted through a major journal. The NEJM case report is great to read. Pretty sure we are experiencing an over-reaction along with some profit taking in Apple. Big trump sugar high for the next couple weeks, maybe we can ride it higher. San Fran
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Post by hledgard on Feb 2, 2020 18:28:00 GMT -8
Saw the ad for Trump at Super Bowl. Perfect ! !
What he does (vs all his own hype and lies), and how he helps black persons (vs the very wrong image of him as racist).
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Post by silkstone on Feb 2, 2020 18:38:55 GMT -8
Saw the ad for Trump at Super Bowl. Perfect ! ! What he does (vs all his hype and lies), and how he helps black persons (vs the very wrong image of him as racist). We’ll see how he does on judgement day junior
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,621
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2020 7:00:39 GMT -8
WRT our AAPL Great Sage, I have a general rule about not following anyone's advice who can't even spell "advice" correctly. I almost never get sick. Maybe once every 2 years. Never touch a doorknob with my hands. Anything I do touch I always have hand sanitizer in my car. Always. I have lots going on in my life and can't call in sick, including elderly parents and a dog with cancer. So much productivity lost in the US just from colds. And we already talked about how flu kills. And don't even get me started on my anti-food poisoning precautions. Had that in 2018 and I don't intend to ever again. I looked like a sprinkler.
The imagined visual of that is not only troubling but also hilarious. Thank you. There's some things you just can't fully imagine unless you are there. I visualize JD's statement like the Chili ad on the Super Bowl. (like many of the ads, I can't even think what it was for) I'll spare the details, but one of our kids was a puker, and we got to occasionally experience projectile vomitting. I'd swear there was a time at grandmas house where it went 6' from one side of the couch to another, but that's not something you normally pull a tape measure out for. Lots of laundry. But the great safflower incident was worse, at 2am with semi-germaphobe friends visiting, and the other daughter sleeping through the bright lights and carpet cleaner attempts. Ahhh, memories. It seems like just last week that AAPL was at $326. Was it just a dream? That is the memory I want to relive.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Feb 10, 2020 10:53:27 GMT -8
WRT our AAPL Great Sage, I have a general rule about not following anyone's advice who can't even spell "advice" correctly. I almost never get sick. Maybe once every 2 years. Never touch a doorknob with my hands. Anything I do touch I always have hand sanitizer in my car. Always. I have lots going on in my life and can't call in sick, including elderly parents and a dog with cancer. So much productivity lost in the US just from colds. And we already talked about how flu kills. And don't even get me started on my anti-food poisoning precautions. Had that in 2018 and I don't intend to ever again. I looked like a sprinkler. Hey, we want to know about your food poisoning, in detail. A sprinkler? Isn't it self-evident? A sprinkler has liquids flowing out of all its holes ....
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