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Post by sponge on Jan 12, 2013 16:29:36 GMT -8
Without a link... iPhone 5 and iPad mini are reason enough to keep production running. No China Mobile required, even though it's really only a matter of when. (/VeriPhone) Not sure if you refer to my post about a link, so here you go. iDevice demand forces some of Apple's partners to work through Chinese New YearStrong demand prompts Apple suppliers to work during Chinese New YearThe rumor has it that not only Foxconn working through Chinese New Year but one of th board suppliers will also. I'm not saying this is due to any imminent deals, but as long as there is conjecture out there due to Tim Cook's visits, I am just piling on. I can dream can't I. My best case at the earnings report would be Tim Cook starting off by apologizing for underestimating Foxconn's flexibility and ability to adapt to the rigors of meeting such high standards making possible 55 million iPhone sales and 30 million iPad sales. Then announcing deals with NTT Docomo and China Mobile starting sales January 31st. "To dream the impossible dream[see above] To fight the unbeatable foe[EOs] To bear[as opposed to bulls] with unbearable sorrow[$200 drop] Upon further review I think I need to get back on my meds. LOL I like the way you think. Here is another scenario. During earnings Apple announces a 10:1 split then increases the dividend by 50%. A year later they do a 2:1 split after the stock move up to $150 and increases the dividend again by 50%. All because everyone and their mother is buying the latest Apple products and China is growing like weeds.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 12, 2013 16:39:36 GMT -8
I used to be in the crowd that didn't feel a split mattered, but to use the meme of the day, "my position has evolved". I think a 4-1 split would be enough to get things settled and get retail looking again. Flatten out the option crowd a bit. Combine it with an increased share buyback and I'm happy.
The dividend will be increased each year...that seems the easiest and safest thing to predict.....
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Post by rosie on Jan 12, 2013 17:25:41 GMT -8
I used to be in the crowd that didn't feel a split mattered, but to use the meme of the day, "my position has evolved". I think a 4-1 split would be enough to get things settled and get retail looking again. Flatten out the option crowd a bit. Combine it with an increased share buyback and I'm happy. The dividend will be increased each year...that seems the easiest and safest thing to predict..... +4-1!
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Post by chasmac on Jan 12, 2013 21:16:19 GMT -8
Remember years ago when Apple said they were going to go from 2 China stores to 20 in 18 months? Didn't happen. I'd love to ask TC why that didn't happen. Not saying the increase isn't going to happen but the China market/inner workings is very difficult to predict, even for Apple.
Red, love the car charger comment! I bet the Commodore thinks you're a stitch :-)
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Post by electrobuzz on Jan 13, 2013 2:40:01 GMT -8
This is an interesting list of "apple is dead" predictions over the years! The "experts" are still trying to get it right about the fruit company. :-) www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell/
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Post by rickag on Jan 13, 2013 9:15:14 GMT -8
Not sure if you refer to my post about a link, so here you go. iDevice demand forces some of Apple's partners to work through Chinese New YearStrong demand prompts Apple suppliers to work during Chinese New YearThe rumor has it that not only Foxconn working through Chinese New Year but one of th board suppliers will also. I'm not saying this is due to any imminent deals, but as long as there is conjecture out there due to Tim Cook's visits, I am just piling on. I can dream can't I. My best case at the earnings report would be Tim Cook starting off by apologizing for underestimating Foxconn's flexibility and ability to adapt to the rigors of meeting such high standards making possible 55 million iPhone sales and 30 million iPad sales. Then announcing deals with NTT Docomo and China Mobile starting sales January 31st. "To dream the impossible dream[see above] To fight the unbeatable foe[EOs] To bear[as opposed to bulls] with unbearable sorrow[$200 drop] Upon further review I think I need to get back on my meds. LOL I like the way you think. Here is another scenario. During earnings Apple announces a 10:1 split then increases the dividend by 50%. A year later they do a 2:1 split after the stock move up to $150 and increases the dividend again by 50%. All because everyone and their mother is buying the latest Apple products and China is growing like weeds. Here's to both scenarios happening. I place the odds somewhere between slim chance and fat chance. Probably no chance.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 10:02:11 GMT -8
I used to be in the crowd that didn't feel a split mattered, but to use the meme of the day, "my position has evolved". I think a 4-1 split would be enough to get things settled and get retail looking again. Flatten out the option crowd a bit. Combine it with an increased share buyback and I'm happy. The dividend will be increased each year...that seems the easiest and safest thing to predict..... Yes, I remember, your shares are not allowed to be split and you are not allowed to benefit from any share appreciation after said split.. ;D The one thing I have never understood about the anti-split argument, what is the downside? There is not one. BTW, I am still very pro-buyback. The CFO is in control of 120 billion dollars and it is not giving a ROI worthy of Apple. Buying Apple shares at a sub 12 p/e should be an easy risk/reward decision.
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Post by tuffett on Jan 13, 2013 10:34:40 GMT -8
If management is even the slightest bit optimistic about the future (and all indications are that they should be), a buyback simply makes complete sense at these levels. The domestic vs. international cash split is an overblown issue since money is so cheap to borrow and Apple accumulates cash at ridiculous rates. The "laser focus on products" is a cop-out because last time I checked, the CFO should be focusing on financials and not products. We're not asking engineers or Jony Ive to make these decisions.
The reality is that growth rates are beginning to slow and Apple is on its way to becoming a huge, stable, mature company. The cash management needs to reflect this transition. They have started well with the dividend and a tiny buyback program. They now need to strengthen it. I realize it's been under a year but the circumstances have changed - the stock is dirt cheap and executing a larger buyback is a great move for both short term bulls and long term investors in the company.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 13, 2013 10:46:44 GMT -8
Same Bat-Time, same Bat-Channel.
I mean, give it til mid-March maybe
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Post by nagrani on Jan 13, 2013 11:24:09 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 13, 2013 11:28:42 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Jan 13, 2013 12:03:13 GMT -8
I remember my friend. I'm just spooked by the recent drop in apple. I feel like I've lost my wings like that guy in top gun.
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Post by osx10 on Jan 13, 2013 12:04:04 GMT -8
While WSJ might be more trustworthy than Digitimes, we just had this piece from 4 weeks ago. HEREEO's taking one last shot at the little guys. Counting down until Friday 4pm. The only concern I have is that Gene Munster (channel check king) keeps changing his price target.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 13, 2013 12:10:10 GMT -8
I remember my friend. I'm just spooked by the recent drop in apple. I feel like I've lost my wings like that guy in top gun. But man, run it through the common sense test. For instance, in an apples-to-apples comparison what's the worst iPhone quarter we're likely to see in fiscal 2013? Use the, er, Forstalled iPhone 4S as a bad-case scenario to work from, with a combination of accelerated demand curve, "stale product", Apple's product transition strategy, and an avalanche of better iPhone around the corner rumors. I know you have some numbers. And numbers beat FUD any damn day.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 13, 2013 12:11:26 GMT -8
Very few WS analysts on AAPL maintain credibility for long.
Huberty's one of the best for now. Munster? Yeah, not really seeing the sense behind a _$25_ price target cut.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2013 12:17:57 GMT -8
If management is even the slightest bit optimistic about the future (and all indications are that they should be), a buyback simply makes complete sense at these levels. The domestic vs. international cash split is an overblown issue since money is so cheap to borrow and Apple accumulates cash at ridiculous rates. The "laser focus on products" is a cop-out because last time I checked, the CFO should be focusing on financials and not products. We're not asking engineers or Jony Ive to make these decisions. The reality is that growth rates are beginning to slow and Apple is on its way to becoming a huge, stable, mature company. The cash management needs to reflect this transition. They have started well with the dividend and a tiny buyback program. They now need to strengthen it. I realize it's been under a year but the circumstances have changed - the stock is dirt cheap and executing a larger buyback is a great move for both short term bulls and long term investors in the company. i wouldn't be surprised if there was some accelerated level of buyback last quarter - Apple stated during the last conference call: "In addition to shares purchased through the accelerated share repurchase program, we may also purchase shares in open-market transactions in compliance with all applicable securities laws." Looking at it from another perspective, Apples growing cash horde, combined with its current low valuation, is actually making it a more attractive takeover target everyday. The ever growing share of cash as a percentage of market cap means a potential takeover requires less and less funds to purchase Apple. curent market cap is $488 billion, current cash balance would be somewhere over $130 billion - meaning the actual enterprise value is currently $358 billion. Not a bad price for a company spitting out $43 billion in the last twelve months. EDIT: To be clear, I think the theory behind more cash on the balance sheet equals easier takeover target is a reason to get rid of a big portion of the cash through a buyback.
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Post by sponge on Jan 13, 2013 12:25:49 GMT -8
We get this new every quarter the world expects big numbers. It could mean many things. Don't even bother to go into every scenario.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2013 12:31:41 GMT -8
ran across this info on Braeburn, via user ZZBar. its no good to me - but its a very interesting "hidden feature": "Just discovered an Apple TV hidden feature via a chinese site.. One can now watch most if not all live Chinese TV Channels by manually resetting DNS address in apple tv setting. www.guomii.com/posts/30740将 DNS 服务器修改为 180.153.225.136(电信用户),部分联通用户也可以试试 210.129.145.150。路由器地址、IP 地址、子网掩码都不用改。 将 Apple TV 的 iTunes Store 位置设置成美国; 1) change DNS to 180.153.225.136 or 210.129.145.150 (setting->network->DNS->manual) 2) make sure iTunes Store location set to United States. 3) open Apple TV Trailer app, bingo, you get live TV and much more… I will use this next time to watch live World Cup or Olympic Games.."
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 13, 2013 12:42:32 GMT -8
Wife texts husband on a cold winters morning: "Windows frozen." Husband texts back:"Pour some lukewarm water over it." Wife texts back 5 minutes later: "Computer completely dead now."
Sorry ... I couldn't help myself ;D
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2013 12:44:38 GMT -8
That report has specific numbers, and reports about multiple companies dropping iPhone 5 component orders. Whether its FUD or not - this will likely cause a decent drop in AAPL share price on Monday morning. my 2 cents. If its not FUD, there are a couple of alternative theories to slowing demand by consumers for iPhone 5. The most obvious theory to me is that this signals Apple may be about to introduce another new form factor iPhone that will sell alongside the iPhone 5 - either the speculated iPhone "Mini", or even a iPhone "Maxi" (4.8"-5" screen). The introduction of one or more new form factors with a different screen size would lead to less component orders for the 4" screen.
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Post by bryanyc on Jan 13, 2013 12:52:30 GMT -8
I just got an Atv recently for streaming to my panasonic projector and friend got one too. Now I realize what the whole ala cart streaming thing is all about (I don't own a tv btw). I can see that whoever does this best is going to have a lot of eyeballs on the portal page and perhaps take a cut of millions of streaming channels. Netflix, Hulu, Google, Vimeo, even Amazon are all lusting for this living room entertainment platform. Big question is will Apple's entry be as big an innovation as their other recent game changing products? They have been waiting for quite some time now, slowly developing the Atv, but the time seems ripe for a new device / expanded service. Its going to be a very interesting and hard fought battle when it starts in earnest.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 13, 2013 13:13:38 GMT -8
That report has specific numbers, and reports about multiple companies dropping iPhone 5 component orders. Whether its FUD or not - this will likely cause a decent drop in AAPL share price on Monday morning. my 2 cents. If its not FUD, there are a couple of alternative theories to slowing demand by consumers for iPhone 5. The most obvious theory to me is that this signals Apple may be about to introduce another new form factor iPhone that will sell alongside the iPhone 5 - either the speculated iPhone "Mini", or even a iPhone "Maxi" (4.8"-5" screen). The introduction of one or more new form factors with a different screen size would lead to less component orders for the 4" screen. Perhaps orders being pulled in in favor of larger iPhone 5S screen? - or mini as you said but something doesn't sit right with this. I'm tired of the media stating things so definitively only to find out days later that an article gets retracted and there is hardly any mention of it. I'm not sure what to make of this one.
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Post by mace on Jan 13, 2013 13:21:38 GMT -8
I thought we've been here before? You got your wish, shouldn't you be happy? One last test of $500 before wave V begin?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 13, 2013 13:21:49 GMT -8
Wife texts husband on a cold winters morning: "Windows frozen." Husband texts back:"Pour some lukewarm water over it." Wife texts back 5 minutes later: "Computer completely dead now." Sorry ... I couldn't help myself ;D
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Post by tuffett on Jan 13, 2013 13:28:20 GMT -8
Huberty's one of the best for now. Unbelievable..but true
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Post by tuffett on Jan 13, 2013 13:30:51 GMT -8
That report has specific numbers, and reports about multiple companies dropping iPhone 5 component orders. Whether its FUD or not - this will likely cause a decent drop in AAPL share price on Monday morning. my 2 cents. If its not FUD, there are a couple of alternative theories to slowing demand by consumers for iPhone 5. The most obvious theory to me is that this signals Apple may be about to introduce another new form factor iPhone that will sell alongside the iPhone 5 - either the speculated iPhone "Mini", or even a iPhone "Maxi" (4.8"-5" screen). The introduction of one or more new form factors with a different screen size would lead to less component orders for the 4" screen. But were they really planning for 65 million iPhone 5s? That's an enormous number. That's what makes me question the credibility.
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Post by darrenhd on Jan 13, 2013 13:44:43 GMT -8
Well, a few possiblities 1) Demand is dropping off 2) Apple will introduce the 5S sometime in the quarter, with a different screen size, so the production percentage of the "5" will go down 3) Bogus story 4) Production shifted somewhere else
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2013 13:59:10 GMT -8
That report has specific numbers, and reports about multiple companies dropping iPhone 5 component orders. Whether its FUD or not - this will likely cause a decent drop in AAPL share price on Monday morning. my 2 cents. If its not FUD, there are a couple of alternative theories to slowing demand by consumers for iPhone 5. The most obvious theory to me is that this signals Apple may be about to introduce another new form factor iPhone that will sell alongside the iPhone 5 - either the speculated iPhone "Mini", or even a iPhone "Maxi" (4.8"-5" screen). The introduction of one or more new form factors with a different screen size would lead to less component orders for the 4" screen. But were they really planning for 65 million iPhone 5s? That's an enormous number. That's what makes me question the credibility. im guessing that includes the iPod touch screen as well (5 million units?). And possibly apple might order that many screens in a quarter but doesn't ship some of the phones until next quarter...?
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Post by Grover on Jan 13, 2013 14:35:55 GMT -8
But were they really planning for 65 million iPhone 5s? That's an enormous number. That's what makes me question the credibility. im guessing that includes the iPod touch screen as well (5 million units?). And possibly apple might order that many screens in a quarter but doesn't ship some of the phones until next quarter...? x This in contrast to the story last week indicating Foxcon plants would work through the Chinese New Year due to demand. Who do you believe? Stock will probably take a hit tomorrow.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 13, 2013 14:43:44 GMT -8
I believe this is because Apple always orders up the max possible amount, then backs off as needed. There is always a story of reduction of orders in the supply chain and most of the time it does not mean sales are bad.
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