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Post by alice on Jan 13, 2013 20:01:10 GMT -8
I want to see Q2 guidance of $12.30.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 20:06:30 GMT -8
I want to see Q2 guidance of $12.30. I want to see Scarlett Johansson naked, the likelihood of each is about the same.
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Post by alice on Jan 13, 2013 20:13:47 GMT -8
Good Q2 guidance is needed to move aapl up. I don't want a repeat of last quarter aapl share price action.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 20:27:22 GMT -8
Good Q2 guidance is needed to move aapl up. I don't want a repeat of last quarter aapl share price action. Alice, Apple gave horrible guidance in July and three days after earnings went on a spectacular run. It matters, but direction will eventually change just because. Apple has lost momentum going down, they will have to go the other direction to make their hay now. When? wish I knew. That is not to say that if Apple stinks up this earnings we go up, we would not, but I am feeling more comfortable about Apple coming in over WS consensus. I think the next BOD decision will be huge. (Late Feb - March I think Apple will do something big)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 13, 2013 20:41:47 GMT -8
You won't get $12.30. Not even close. If you do, about 200 of us from AFB2 will find a way to meet up in Vegas and have a post-earnings bash that rivals New Year's.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 12:40:43 GMT -8
I'm going with $11.00.
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 13:02:45 GMT -8
If WSJ is to be "believed", maybe $9? I'm looking for $10+.
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Post by kloot on Jan 14, 2013 13:09:30 GMT -8
Good Q2 guidance is needed to move aapl up. I don't want a repeat of last quarter aapl share price action. weak guidance last jan didn't stop the parabolic rise to come. but this sentiment is so much worse.
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 14:25:03 GMT -8
Apple guided $2+ drop in EPS for Q1.
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 14:43:33 GMT -8
What guidance will it take to end the aapl downtrend? $11? $10?
Anything less than $12.30 means negative EPS growth.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 14, 2013 14:50:23 GMT -8
In terms of products, I'm thinking summer will be new iPhone. Ramping takes a while.
So Q2 should be good for iPhones.
On the other hand for iPads, I believe the ramp is well underway.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 14:55:17 GMT -8
Q2 will be horrible for iPhone if the dire predictions of WSJ come to pass. Or something.
Personally, I'm looking at revs guidance of $48B or higher.
iPad ramp is a mystery. The A7/X should be ready soon if Apple is keeping to a 12-month launch cadence. But both iPads haven't been out even two months!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 14, 2013 15:29:38 GMT -8
Let me rephrase on iPad ramp. It may be as late as June, but it won't be August. There's no way under the sun that iPad mini engineers are not without any legal stimulant.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 14, 2013 15:34:03 GMT -8
Regarding guidance over $ 11, let's not count the chickens yet. Guidance estimation is the most cloudy crystal ball of the month in a normal time.
This year we have political discord and Samsung competition, not to mention iPhone production cuts and / or production rampups.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 15:59:06 GMT -8
Guided EPS of $10-ish on good enough Q1 2013 earnings should be OK. $10.50+, let's say.
If Apple is getting trounced by Samsung, then it deserves to. Don't you be crowing about how you're outpacing the smartphone rate of growth if you can't back it up year after year.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2013 16:30:13 GMT -8
Q2 will be horrible for iPhone if the dire predictions of WSJ come to pass. Or something. Personally, I'm looking at revs guidance of $48B or higher. iPad ramp is a mystery. The A7/X should be ready soon if Apple is keeping to a 12-month launch cadence. But both iPads haven't been out even two months! Wasn't the A6 introduced in September, A6X in October?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 14, 2013 17:41:28 GMT -8
Yes, but there's introductions and then there's times you might actually expect the chip to be available for ramp.
In 2010, the cadence was new A-series chip in March/April, with the iPhone-optimized version available 3 or so months later. Everything got messed up starting with the iPhone 4S.
iPhone 5 and iPad 4 both show Apple's trying to get more aggressive with releases again.
In terms of guidance, I guess we'll be listening for any "future product transitions" that don't include the blindingly obvious (Mac Pro, which is relatively "meaningless" to Apple's business these days).
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 14, 2013 18:46:21 GMT -8
Good Q2 guidance is needed to move aapl up. I don't want a repeat of last quarter aapl share price action. I want a repeat of last year share price action after the Q1 ER.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 14, 2013 18:51:40 GMT -8
Good Q2 guidance is needed to move aapl up. I don't want a repeat of last quarter aapl share price action. Alice, Apple gave horrible guidance in July and three days after earnings went on a spectacular run. It matters, but direction will eventually change just because. Apple has lost momentum going down, they will have to go the other direction to make their hay now. When? wish I knew. Nice post, I've been wondering about that. Even if its manipulation, is it just as easy for the EO's to make money by driving AAPL up as it is driving it down? Or is it somehow easier for them to profit from the downward direction?
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 14, 2013 19:03:22 GMT -8
Its time for the TV this year and they should be nearing a market ready product. An acquisition of some company that can bring content would be a good use of some of the cash.
I spend >$300/mo. for internet, cable and phone, and I just have the basic cable channels. Seems they could compete in that price range easy. There is a large group of people who will buy an Apple produced TV simply because they trust the company offer a quality product.
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Post by alice on Jan 14, 2013 19:08:58 GMT -8
Alice, Apple gave horrible guidance in July and three days after earnings went on a spectacular run. It matters, but direction will eventually change just because. Apple has lost momentum going down, they will have to go the other direction to make their hay now. When? wish I knew. Nice post, I've been wondering about that. Even if its manipulation, is it just as easy for the EO's to make money by driving AAPL up as it is driving it down? Or is it somehow easier for them to profit from the downward direction? Apple did not guide a decline in EPS but did guide a decline in EPS for Q1 2013.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 16, 2013 8:03:43 GMT -8
Historically, sandbag ratios are all over the map. Last year, Q2 was 3rd highest in recent memory. The other two historic numbers were also Q2. This leads me to believe that 11 EPS guidance is possible.
The cautious person in me says $ 10.20 - $ 10.50.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 16, 2013 12:29:25 GMT -8
Morgan Stanley reckon Apple will provide conservative guidance for revenues and earnings around $42-44B and $9-10.80.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 16, 2013 13:24:08 GMT -8
Morgan Stanley reckon Apple will provide conservative guidance for revenues and earnings around $42-44B and $9-10.80. Personally, I would think 42-44 bill in revenue guidance would be great.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 16, 2013 13:39:37 GMT -8
The Street expects $46.65B per Yahoo! Finance. I'd prefer Oppenheimer guide over that number if he thinks he has the revenues.
Could be close. I'm playing around with my Q2 prelim spreadsheet and I'd consider $50B revs to be on the fairly conservative side. While I don't really do "beat factor" analysis, if Apple reports revs in-line with my Q1 estimate ($55.32B vs. $52B guidance, or about 6.4% higher), "hinted revs" of $50B would yield guidance from Oppenheimer of about $47B...very close to analyst consensus.
The difference maker IMHO will be iPad's first full quarter of availability. Unprecedented in iPad's life cycle.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 16, 2013 14:13:26 GMT -8
I don't get it. WS is expecting Apple to grow revenues by 19% for Q2, which is reasonable, yet here we are in purgatory. I see the 46B number. I do not think it is possible without CM.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 16, 2013 14:22:20 GMT -8
Then you don't have very high hopes for iPhone. Apple is ramping up to 200M/yr run rates. Is the 45% smartphone growth rate from last year tanking - will it just be Apple - or both?
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 16, 2013 14:33:05 GMT -8
Then you don't have very high hopes for iPhone. Apple is ramping up to 200M/yr run rates. Is the 45% smartphone growth rate from last year tanking - will it just be Apple - or both? The rate is slowing, CM would just make me feel more comfortable.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 16, 2013 14:37:12 GMT -8
In Apple's case the math gets skewed - growth is better now and next quarter and probably not so much the next two.
The smartphone market will not grow at 40% or even 30% longer-term of course. But it won't happen overnight, and slower-than-peer growth better not happen when iPhone is at the highest point of the demand curve.
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Post by Big Al on Jan 17, 2013 4:07:50 GMT -8
I think they will guide around $42B revenues and maybe $10.7 EPS.
But the really interesting figure will be GM guidance. I think that guiding a GM of 36% was one of the catalysts which led to the negative sentiment that brought the stock price down below 500. People are not sure whether this is just temporary or whether Apple will not be able to generate GMs above 40% anytime soon again.
I would like to see them guide to a GM of 38%.
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