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Post by fas550 on Jan 21, 2013 19:12:03 GMT -8
Those who don't learn from history. Or apply (/sarcasm) to be safe. Hope you get that Math of your dreams. Just call it the big iPhone already people, it's obvious iPhone Math was a little lost in translation: daringfireball.net/linked/2013/01/21/iphone-mathOh wait! Calculator! That's IT! I'm warming up the the Math name. Don't piss on my dreams with logical explanations.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 21, 2013 19:14:32 GMT -8
I think this article is fundamentally flawed. Applying these statistical methods to stock price or earnings data assumed that the data is independent. In other words, knowing one data point does not give us any information about the next data point. I would argue that the data is highly dependent. The presence of competition, the effect of options, the larger economy, all these factors act on the variable we are trying to predict. Indeed, TA is based on the belief that there are feedback loops (i.e. momentum) and that that the momentum is predictable based on crowd psychology. If this is true, none of these variable, and especially stock price can be viewed as a random independent variable. This article is at best worthless, and at worst misleading. A postdoc should know better OTOH: the MMM from TOS suggests a possible move to $531.37 Tuesday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 19:34:54 GMT -8
*looks it up* Market Maker Move implies what? Do tell how it arrives at a 6% jump.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 19:40:13 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 19:45:01 GMT -8
I read that one! I don't think that's a unique experience amongst the Apple-to-Android crowd.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 19:47:25 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 19:50:08 GMT -8
While I'm no fan of ZeroHedge, the link rings true! investor.google.com/releases/2013/0118.htmlAnd the timing is... yeah.Ah, the fun of being a company that doesn't issue guidance! (Though I guess that's guidance of a kind.) My GOOG BCS is just plain toast now. Oh well, that's the life of an ill-informed momo trader.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 19:58:45 GMT -8
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Post by fas550 on Jan 21, 2013 20:04:20 GMT -8
Yes I read this earlier in the day and thought what lousy timing. On another article the CLAIM was they did it because analysts have not adjusted their earrings est to compensate although goog brought it up in last earnings call.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 20:06:25 GMT -8
I went to the Goole IR page, it is there. What I find interesting is the year. Google say Q212 and Q312 will be impacted. Really, we are in 2013 and they are announcing FQ4 2012 tomorrow. Google is such a screw up.
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Post by alice on Jan 21, 2013 20:15:10 GMT -8
Futures are green.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 21, 2013 20:24:38 GMT -8
I would be interested to hear views on what doubt is based on (think curious not sarcastic)? Capital preservation / risk management says: wait for confirmation and stop front-running.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 21, 2013 20:35:19 GMT -8
*looks it up* Market Maker Move implies what? Do tell how it arrives at a 6% jump. ----- Market Maker Move is a measure of the expected magnitude of price movement based on market volatility. We arrive at this calculation by using stock price, volatility differential, and time to expiration. It helps to identify the implied move due to an event between now and the front month expiration (if an event exists). The filter is based on Volatility differential. If the differential is positive the MMM will be displayed. If negative, it will not. In other words, if the near term expiration has greater volatility than the back month, the MMM value will show. If there is a big risk event (such as earnings) that is coming up soon, the front month March should have higher volatility than April and then you would see MMM. 1) market was closed today - so additional volatility based on purchases 4 days ago. 2) Earnings. 6% based on volatility of THIS weeklys calls and puts
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 20:50:34 GMT -8
Interesting! Thanks.
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Post by mace on Jan 21, 2013 20:58:16 GMT -8
... Capital preservation / risk management says: wait for confirmation and stop front-running. Are you a leading or lagging or contrarian indicator?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 21:07:18 GMT -8
Here's something I just thought of, someone might want to check my math. If a bigger iPhone used the same display density as the 9.7" iPad retina, then it can retain the same pixel count and ratio as the iPhone 5, except the screen would be 4.9" in size. This would eliminate fragmentation issues, and we know apple has a large supply of this glass to use, especially since the iPad mini has likely cannibalised some amount of 9.7" displays. Just a possibility... Gruber quick response to my thought: "That’s a possible course. But such a phone would compare poorly, pixel-wise, against competition. Might not matter?"
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 21:14:26 GMT -8
Yeah, lately you look like a kiwi. ( sorry Burgess) I have no idea what this means. Definition of KIWI 1 : any of a small genus (Apteryx) of flightless New Zealand birds with rudimentary wings, stout legs, a long bill, and grayish brown hairlike plumage 2 capitalized : a native or resident of New Zealand —used as a nickname 3 : kiwifruit I gather most americans call the kiwifruit (small green fruit) a "Kiwi", rather than referring to our rare native bird.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 21:21:29 GMT -8
Gruber quick response to my thought: "That’s a possible course. But such a phone would compare poorly, pixel-wise, against competition. Might not matter?" +1 to burgess for asking the Gruber! Thanks!
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Post by chasmac on Jan 21, 2013 21:21:33 GMT -8
Any of you old timers remember Kiwitrader? She left AFB a long time ago but was a great poster and a terrific person. Not sure what happened to her.
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Post by prazan on Jan 21, 2013 21:21:35 GMT -8
Here's something I just thought of, someone might want to check my math. If a bigger iPhone used the same display as the 9.7" iPad retina, then it can retain the same pixel count and ratio as the iPhone 5, except the screen would be 4.9" in size. This would eliminate fragmentation issues, and we know apple has a large supply of this glass to use, especially since the iPad mini has likely cannibalised some amount of 9.7" displays. Just a possibility... A very good possibility. OK, I can't help myself. It was estimated that 700k people attended the inauguration. Thankfully only 300k missed work. ;D The other 400K are independently wealthy investors? The markets took the day off, too. (my first-ever smileycon )
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Post by terps530 on Jan 21, 2013 21:22:06 GMT -8
Does anyone know if data exists that would track open interest of past options. For example, if I wanted to find out the Open interest of the Jan '13 500 CALL OI, on the first of each month for 12 months prior to that option's expiration? I know TD has something called ThinkBack, but I've never tried it so I don't know if it would have that data. I have TOS (think or swim) from TD. The ON DEMAND buttom will do it. If you had asked on Friday, I could have given it to you in real time. The one below is for Feb. $500 AAPL from today. this is great! thanks. I figured past options would be tough to find, but this will work for my studies going forward.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 21:22:45 GMT -8
Any of you old timers remember Kiwitrader? She left AFB a long time ago but was a great poster and a terrific person. Not sure what happened to her. Only fuzzily, chas. I was on the _other_ forum boards quite a long time but didn't join AFB until later. Maybe ask Robert?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 21, 2013 21:52:51 GMT -8
... Capital preservation / risk management says: wait for confirmation and stop front-running. Are you a leading or lagging or contrarian indicator? Lagging. By the time I get jaded (from too many fake-outs), it's usually the real thing. ;D
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 21, 2013 22:16:58 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 22:37:36 GMT -8
Retains? Surely the share is slipping...
...well well, it's not. ;D. 44.9 >> 51.2% this year = hmm, wonder about those Verizon numbers tomorrow...
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Post by mace on Jan 21, 2013 23:04:59 GMT -8
This news is suspect. How can it be when they cut component order by 50%?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 23:09:56 GMT -8
Appleinsider appears to be down (?) - is there a link to the report anywhere?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 23:24:39 GMT -8
burgess, Tim wanted iPhone 5 to go out in an artificial, near-illegal-channel-stuffing blaze of glory.
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NOT!
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