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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2013 15:17:53 GMT -8
Lets talk about "The Hobby".
From all accounts it sells somewhere between 1-2 million units a quarter, and doesn't yet have enough presence on apples income statement to be worthy of reporting as a separate entity, and it is listed under accessories in the apple online store.
Currently powered by a single core A5 processor, the Apple TV was last updated in March 2012.
So where to from here?
Will apple launch an Apple TV App Store?
Will apple stick to cheap low powered SoCs to increase margins and lower the price?
Or will it be updated with an A6x or A7x so it can drive console quality games?
What will increase sales more - lowering the price or increasing its capabilities?
Are two models (low end cheap model & high end gaming model) an option or a waste of time/fragmentation issue?
Media content: apple recently added streaming on demand TV content in Germany, will the trend continue worldwide? Will content be added methodically country by country (like it was with iTunes music & movies), rather than in one Big Bang?
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 21, 2013 17:18:01 GMT -8
As a consumer:
1. The content is often missing. 2. The content is not so easy to find 3. The price is usually NOT right.
So, something has to give. YouTube and Netflix do a better job than iTunes Media store.
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Post by pauls on Jan 21, 2013 17:30:44 GMT -8
I think most of Apple TV's future depends on content, and it won't likely emerge from hobby status until deals are made with the powers that hold the key to the content. Sports and premium cable (not to mention the major broadcast networks-- live or live-ish TV) would change everything, if watchable through an Apple UI. I think the stall for an app store is mostly about waiting for negotiations and partnerships to shake out. Once there are deals in place for premium and timely streaming (and live TV), then the door is open for Apps. Content via Apple hardware would be disruptive, and opening the platform for Aoos would be very disruptive. The content providers (and middlemen) are understandably shy about partnering with Apple. Yet, sooner or later, such partnerships seem inevitable. Cable continues to bleed customers-- a deal with Apple could turn this around in a hurry. I don't see Apple going far with the hobby without some big deals (or acquisitions).
I see no need to lower the price, it's already a bargain. As for low-end and high-end models-- take care of content, and it would open up a market for a family of devices (including screens and accessories).
It will be interesting to see which direction Apple heads in the event that they can't get better content. I don't see much point in taking the hobby further than where it is.....
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Post by ermh1572 on Jan 21, 2013 19:31:47 GMT -8
As a consumer: 1. The content is often missing. 2. The content is not so easy to find 3. The price is usually NOT right. So, something has to give. YouTube and Netflix do a better job than iTunes Media store. Would you elaborate on what characteristics you feel YouTube and Netflix perform better? As a non-cable/satellite subscriber, I've found most tv show content available in a reasonable amount of time on the web. Abc in particular has a decent app that can then be airplayed. I think most broadcast channels would have little trouble putting these on an appletv. So live tv is really the issue: sports and news. I think news stations would jump at the chance for larger audiences. Sports is a kicker though. I speak only as a US viewer as I have no reference for the rest of the world. I have found some work arounds, but I have yet to find a good experience currently (for college sporting events). If apple leveraged its relationship with Disney for ESPN deal it would be a large coup. However, I am sure cable companies are prohibiting that currently through contracts. I foresee league networks falling in line if ESPN was onboard. NFL perhaps being a holdout. So far pricing doesn't seem outrageous to me. I am still viewing commercials (they'd get larger sponsors if viewership took off for this method of delivery) for most content. The networks I pay for: MLBtv, NBA live, HBO, BigTen Network, still sum to less than my old satellite bill. Granted, I split some of the bills and share an account. I agree finding content is difficult. Merely allowing an 'app' ecosystem would facilitate this. I'd assume appletv apps would be limited to those concerning video display. So you'd have gaming, tv, movies, sports, news. Some apps/ channels may just have one app across categories or may make separate apps, or in-app purchases for premium content. The ideal to me would be search. Where searching would search catalogs of every app and the results would display multiple avenues to get it. Probably not likely. Hell if the content makers just developed there own apps it would cut out an entire middle man that has become unnecessary for that function
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 19:36:03 GMT -8
Apple TV needs Siri. (Or at least, Siri support in a way that doesn't creep people out with a theoretical listening device in your set-top box, such as having to invoke it through an iDevice with Siri.)
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 21, 2013 19:38:19 GMT -8
Apple TV needs Siri. Who knows, it might get it! I have doubts about SIRI being part of the home TV viewing experiencing.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2013 19:40:56 GMT -8
Actually so do I, but only because Siri still kinda sucks. ;D If it can be made more useful, more accurate...I love the idea of telling my Apple television/Apple TV set top box what to do. "Turn on the game." "I want to watch CNN." "Record 'American Idol'." (OK, maybe not that one. ) "Show me the latest movie trailers." Stuff like that. The real problem in my mind is Wi-Fi coverage, but Apple can get around that to some degree with AirPlay and using a Siri iDevice as the remote. The too-damn-many-TV-channels situation predates the too-damn-many-apps situation. If Apple can make app/music discovery or rediscovery easier, then making the TV experience easier is a piece of cake.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 22, 2013 7:27:02 GMT -8
As a consumer: 1. The content is often missing. 2. The content is not so easy to find 3. The price is usually NOT right. So, something has to give. YouTube and Netflix do a better job than iTunes Media store. Would you elaborate on what characteristics you feel YouTube and Netflix perform better? As a non-cable/satellite subscriber, I've found most tv show content available in a reasonable amount of time on the web. Abc in particular has a decent app that can then be airplayed. I think most broadcast channels would have little trouble putting these on an appletv. So live tv is really the issue: sports and news. I think news stations would jump at the chance for larger audiences. Sports is a kicker though. I speak only as a US viewer as I have no reference for the rest of the world. I have found some work arounds, but I have yet to find a good experience currently (for college sporting events). If apple leveraged its relationship with Disney for ESPN deal it would be a large coup. However, I am sure cable companies are prohibiting that currently through contracts. I foresee league networks falling in line if ESPN was onboard. NFL perhaps being a holdout. So far pricing doesn't seem outrageous to me. I am still viewing commercials (they'd get larger sponsors if viewership took off for this method of delivery) for most content. The networks I pay for: MLBtv, NBA live, HBO, BigTen Network, still sum to less than my old satellite bill. Granted, I split some of the bills and share an account. I agree finding content is difficult. Merely allowing an 'app' ecosystem would facilitate this. I'd assume appletv apps would be limited to those concerning video display. So you'd have gaming, tv, movies, sports, news. Some apps/ channels may just have one app across categories or may make separate apps, or in-app purchases for premium content. The ideal to me would be search. Where searching would search catalogs of every app and the results would display multiple avenues to get it. Probably not likely. Hell if the content makers just developed there own apps it would cut out an entire middle man that has become unnecessary for that function Netflix user interface is more Mac-like than iTunes. Moreover, the searching recommendations that Netflix and YouTube provide is more accurate than iTunes Store. I don't want to search thru hundreds or thousands of apps to find content. I download an app, its no good and I delete it. I've deleted a hundred apps because they are useless. (I often search for news). Magazine subscriptions ? overpriced. Movies ? The movie companies and Apple have not signed many deals on international movies.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2013 22:23:20 GMT -8
Tim Cook on todays Conference Call:
"You’re asking me all the questions I won’t answer, but let me see if I can find some comment to make that’s productive. In terms of the product that we sell today, Apple TV, we sold more last quarter than we’ve ever sold before, eclipsing 2 million during the quarter. It was up almost 60 percent year-on-year, and so there’s actually very good growth in that product. What was a small niche at one time of people that loved it is a much larger number that love it.
I have said in the past this is an area of intense interest for us, and it remains that. And I tend to believe that there’s a lot we can contribute in this space, and so we continue to pull the string and see where it leads us. But I don’t want to be more specific."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 22:36:32 GMT -8
Apple TV is hype, but it's no financial savior. Any unit sales projections and ASP calculations are 100% impossible to make right now.
Of course, I'll take any positive news I can get right now.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2013 22:58:32 GMT -8
I presume those 2 million+ units are about $200 million of the newly formed "accessories" category on the income statement. Which was $1.8 billion for the quarter just gone. I wouldn't be surprised if iPods eventually are also rolled into this category.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 23, 2013 23:05:35 GMT -8
I was referring to any actual Apple television set.
2 million Apple TVs sold makes for a nice little hobby business.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2013 0:20:50 GMT -8
I was referring to any actual Apple television set. 2 million Apple TVs sold makes for a nice little hobby business. Thats a whole different kettle of fish. I thought we could leave that for a separate thread. (I support the idea of an Apple HDTV)
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 24, 2013 3:14:35 GMT -8
A TV would add revenue growth, but how much is the question?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2013 3:30:53 GMT -8
A TV would add revenue growth, but how much is the question? TVs are a 300 million units a year market. If apple starts by attempting to capture 5%-10% at $1000+ a unit then its $15-$30 billion+ a year in revenue, probably ranging in operating profits anywhere between $5-$12 billion (plus additional ongoing Tunes sales revenue). Within a year or two I imagine it would surpass the Mac division in revenue.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 28, 2013 16:16:49 GMT -8
From Macrumors:
Alongside today's release of iOS 6.1, Apple also issued an update for the Apple TV. The new 5.2 software update includes a number of enhancements including direct iTunes in the Cloud music streaming, Bluetooth keyboard support, Up Next support, and more. - iTunes in the Cloud: Browse and play your purchased iTunes music directly from iCloud. - Bluetooth keyboard: Use your Apple Wireless Keyboard to control your Apple TV. See this article for more information. - AirPlay audio for videos: Send stereo audio from movies, TV shows, and other videos on Apple TV to AirPlay-enabled speakers and devices (including AirPort Express and other Apple TVs). - Stability and performance: Includes performance and stability improvements with the iTunes Store, AirPlay, Netflix, iTunes Match, and wired Ethernet connections.
Curiously, Apple has released three versions of the Apple TV update, covering not only the second-generation (AppleTV2,1) and third-generation (AppleTV3,1) boxes but also a new AppleTV3,2 box. It is unclear exactly what the difference is with the new box, but the numbering scheme suggests that it is a relatively minor change.
Three versions of Apple TV 5.2 update (Source: e-lite.org)
KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo noted earlier this month that Apple was preparing to launch an updated Apple TV this quarter, although it was anticipated to be a minor upgrade. Apple has not, however, made any public announcements regarding an updated Apple TV.
Update: Apple appears to be referring to the new Apple TV model with a code name of J33I, compared to the J33 code name used on the third-generation Apple TV. While we have no direct evidence, it is possible that the "I" simply refers to an international variation of the current box. Just last month, Apple launched iTunes movies in nearly four dozen new countries.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2013 15:55:24 GMT -8
New FCC filing reveals a new Apple TV set top box. www.engadget.com/2013/01/29/apple-tv-fcc-model-a1469/I presume since its being refreshed it means one of two things: 1) It is going to be cheaper to build - meaning we might get a price drop, or at least higher margins. or 2) It is getting upgraded components that will enable new features (I'm hoping it gets an A6x, so it can natively handle some iPad 4 quality pixel/polygon pushing to a 1080p TV). Lets hope there is a media invite heading out soon, so we can look forward to: - Release this immediately, - Announce a Apple TV SDK, - Announce some new content deals, - One more thing: Apple HDTV for release in the summer.
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Post by nathanstevens on Jan 29, 2013 16:32:40 GMT -8
New FCC filing reveals a new Apple TV set top box. www.engadget.com/2013/01/29/apple-tv-fcc-model-a1469/I presume since its being refreshed it means one of two things: 1) It is going to be cheaper to build - meaning we might get a price drop, or at least higher margins. or 2) It is getting upgraded components that will enable new features (I'm hoping it gets an A6x, so it can natively handle some iPad 4 quality pixel/polygon pushing to a 1080p TV). Lets hope there is a media invite heading out soon, so we can look forward to: - Release this immediately, - Announce a Apple TV SDK, - Announce some new content deals, - One more thing: Apple HDTV for release in the summer. I like the way you think. Do yourself a favor and download Real Racing 2 to your phone or ipad and airplay it on your ATV. Works great on atv2 and probably even better on the current version. I think console equivalent gaming would definitely be possible with the next ATV upgrade among other things.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 29, 2013 18:11:50 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2013 18:42:32 GMT -8
Interesting article, thanks for posting. They seem to have completely left out international distribution as a major source of current revenue. Each show is sold to hundreds of foreign territory's on a per country basis, broadcast & digital rights combined normally. Most shows are available on demand for free (ad supported) in most countries, on a lot of devices. There is always a certain price that can solve the problem. Apple is undoubtedly in a great position to offer that price. Bandwidth is still an issue for streaming HD live sport, but H265 adoption in new devices should solve that problem within a year or two. I think in the long term the industry will adapt itself. It's already beginning with low budget content using self distribution (Louie CK etc), as more people view these on more devices, you will see aggregators bringing these independents together, which in turn will concentrate viewing more, which will attract more mid range budget content producers, which will create more demand for the product with consumers, and before you know it you get new studios producing higher budget content and/or the broadcast networks jump on the bandwagon for fear of missing out, and then the transition is complete.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 29, 2013 19:51:40 GMT -8
This is promising - i would have preferred A6x, but A5x is good enough to push some impressive graphics on the iPad 3.
"New Apple TV Has A5X Chip and Single WLAN + Bluetooth Antenna
Tuesday January 29, 2013 6:55 pm PST by Husain Sumra
AnandTech has found that new Apple TV will use the same WLAN+Bluetooth antenna/chip combo that the iPhone 5 uses as well as an A5X processor rather than the A5.
The unreleased Apple TV revision was first suggested by an iOS 6.1 firmware release for a previously unseen AppleTV3,2 model. Then, a new FCC application revealed that the new Apple TV would have slightly smaller dimensions than the currently shipping model.
AnandTech writes: Instead of the A5R2 SoC (S5L8942) inside the Apple TV 3,1, this new device contains an A5X SoC (S5L8947) as shown in the screenshots I've taken of the Restore.plist file, though there are numerous others. It's entirely possible that Apple is again using different bins of the A5X, it's not possible to tell whether CPU or GPU cores are fused off at this point from my digging through the IPSW. The A5X chip (with Quad-Core graphics) was originally introduced to power the new Retina Display screen of the iPad 3.
It was in the current Apple TV that Apple first used the 32-nm (die shrunk) A5 chip. It was believed at the time that Apple had used the Apple TV has a test platform to start ramping up that new 32-nm A5 processor before they started using it more broadly to power the still-for-sale iPad 2.
It seems likely that Apple will follow the same pattern with this new A5X -- first ramp up production in the Apple TV, and later extend its use to the new iPad mini. The next iPad mini is believed to include a Retina display. Apple will need to upgrade the iPad mini's CPU/GPU in order to be able to accommodate the extra pixels of such a display.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2013 15:02:30 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 30, 2013 18:08:10 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2013 13:51:02 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 31, 2013 14:08:20 GMT -8
This will/should continue and even accelerate down in the coming years. I know people who buy their kids DVD's to keep them occupied, especially when traveling. Over Christmas I was standing in line and a woman was buying several DVD's and I asked her why? Of course she was offended as people seem to be these days, after a short time though she turned and asked me why I would question that. I explained and she was oblivious to the ability to buy a movie through itunes. I never understood Apple discontinuing their storage Atv's. The movies that I know I am going to like I just buy. They stay on the Atv, but I can add them to an ipad whenever I want for travel. I am really surprised the dvd rental market still survives.
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Post by Ultrarunner on Jan 31, 2013 14:28:44 GMT -8
DVDs and Blu-ray will be around for a while. iTunes / Netflix selection, in Canada at least, sucks. Most of the movies we watch aren't available except on a physical disc. Also, quality isn't there yet. On a good quality projector, a supposedly high res download from iTunes looks lousy compared to Blu-ray.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 31, 2013 14:46:18 GMT -8
DVDs and Blu-ray will be around for a while. iTunes / Netflix selection, in Canada at least, sucks. Most of the movies we watch aren't available except on a physical disc. Also, quality isn't there yet. On a good quality projector, a supposedly high res download from iTunes looks lousy compared to Blu-ray. I agree the audio and video part of a Blu-ray is much better than itunes. You can download the HD version through itunes for movies that would enhance the viewing. The download takes a lot longer, but the quality is better. A James Bond movie is a little different than a chick flick. I also have a projector. Love it. Had one since 2004. Got a new one last year to upgrade to full 1080p. Funny thing is, very few programs are broadcast in 1080p.
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Post by PikesPique on Jan 31, 2013 15:26:48 GMT -8
Maybe some people are time shifting their DVD rentals...
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2013 15:55:56 GMT -8
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awolk
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Post by awolk on Feb 1, 2013 1:39:24 GMT -8
I am the author of the TV Primer article. While I had initially decided to leave out the US networks' international dealings to keep the flow going, reading your comments made me realize that was a mistake, and so it's now in there.
Thank you.
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