Post by burtonair on Sept 20, 2012 11:46:52 GMT -8
Posted this on Braeburn and am interested in getting people's take here as well. This is how I believe October will play out, including the release of the smaller iPad “Mini” . Note this is simply a thought exercise based on past history. It will be fun to look back in November to see how “thoughtful” I was or wasn’t
Timeline:
Tuesday, 10/2 | invitations for iPad mini event go out
Wednesday, 10/10 | iPad mini announced
Friday, 10/12 | pre orders
Friday, 10/19 | monthly AAPL options expiration
Friday, 10/19 | iPad mini available in-store
Tuesday, 10/23 | Q4 earnings
Now how did I arrive at these dates? The only date we *know* is options expiration on 10/19. Apple typically announces earnings on the Tuesday after options expiration. The only exception I can remember off hand was the 1/18/11 earnings date when it was announced the day before that Jobs was taking his third medical leave. That announcement was planned strategically to hit on MLK day when markets were closed.
Apple often uses earnings announcements to discuss how product launches have gone. This puts the Mini official launch date as Friday, 10/19 with preorders one week earlier at 10/12, again very typical. The announcement date itself historically varies a little bit. For example the iPhone 5 was announced on a wednesday and the 4s on a tuesday. I had assumed tuesday was more typical and that the reason they didn’t announce the 5 on a Tuesday was because it was 9/11. But looking back, I’ve noticed most (non Macworld or WWDC) announcements have come on a wednesday and all iPad announcements have fallen on a wednesday. So, the announcement will be Wednesday 10/10. The date invitations get sent out also fluctuates between Monday, Tuesday and Wenesday, but I decided to go with 8 days before, i.e. Tuesday 10/2.
One other date. At the iPhone 5 announcement, they showed off the new iTunes and iTunes store and said it would be available in “late october”. Wouldn’t it be nice to have the brand spanking new store ready when the iPad mini comes out?
Predicted launch date for new iTunes: Wedneday, 10/17.
Thoughts? Rejections?
Timeline:
Tuesday, 10/2 | invitations for iPad mini event go out
Wednesday, 10/10 | iPad mini announced
Friday, 10/12 | pre orders
Friday, 10/19 | monthly AAPL options expiration
Friday, 10/19 | iPad mini available in-store
Tuesday, 10/23 | Q4 earnings
Now how did I arrive at these dates? The only date we *know* is options expiration on 10/19. Apple typically announces earnings on the Tuesday after options expiration. The only exception I can remember off hand was the 1/18/11 earnings date when it was announced the day before that Jobs was taking his third medical leave. That announcement was planned strategically to hit on MLK day when markets were closed.
Apple often uses earnings announcements to discuss how product launches have gone. This puts the Mini official launch date as Friday, 10/19 with preorders one week earlier at 10/12, again very typical. The announcement date itself historically varies a little bit. For example the iPhone 5 was announced on a wednesday and the 4s on a tuesday. I had assumed tuesday was more typical and that the reason they didn’t announce the 5 on a Tuesday was because it was 9/11. But looking back, I’ve noticed most (non Macworld or WWDC) announcements have come on a wednesday and all iPad announcements have fallen on a wednesday. So, the announcement will be Wednesday 10/10. The date invitations get sent out also fluctuates between Monday, Tuesday and Wenesday, but I decided to go with 8 days before, i.e. Tuesday 10/2.
One other date. At the iPhone 5 announcement, they showed off the new iTunes and iTunes store and said it would be available in “late october”. Wouldn’t it be nice to have the brand spanking new store ready when the iPad mini comes out?
Predicted launch date for new iTunes: Wedneday, 10/17.
Thoughts? Rejections?