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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 22, 2013 12:40:27 GMT -8
Update #s. 50+ very possible IMO. Mid to upper 50s most likely. The Verizon confirmation takes me from 52 million to 53.5 I thought Verizon numbers would be good but not this good, not with the pumping Android pitch I get in there all the time vs. AT&T, where the effort was to support IOs. Now there is no reason to think either the AT&T or Sprint numbers wont' be in line or a bit better on a ratio of IOs to All Others The huge international rollout this quarter and resulting channel fill will present an interesting challenge to determining the share that domestic (and Verizon) sales present to the "big picture". But its all good...The 4s and 4 penetration at Verizon will build out the ecosystem. All those Droid "ice cream sandwich" "gingerbread", "honeycomb" folks are moving over..
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Post by prazan on Jan 22, 2013 12:46:18 GMT -8
AAPL waking up? Momo test BCS, B/E 500ish. I like the uptrend line from the low of 496.63. A strong close and then follow through tomorrow will be welcome. I entered a conservative swing trade at $501, which I'll probably let run into a foolish play on earnings.
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Post by prazan on Jan 22, 2013 12:47:53 GMT -8
Mid to upper 50s most likely. All those Droid "ice cream sandwich" "gingerbread", "honeycomb" folks are moving over.. Indigestion, maybe?
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Post by Lstream on Jan 22, 2013 12:48:05 GMT -8
Has any one checked out the weeklies and how much their prices have been pumped up? This week's 500 call is at $19.80, which is easily double what it normally is, at least based upon my limited experience.
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Post by mace on Jan 22, 2013 12:50:08 GMT -8
... I am learning a very expensive lesson with my April calls. Even if we get to $700 I am still in trouble ... I told you so . Btw, I think you should learn to do butterfly like chasmac and Mav to exploit the pinning behavior (well documented and relatively predictable). A few hundred dollars can reap you a few thousand dollars (or more if you know how). Seriously, you're trading options just like a newbie, too far OTM.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 12:50:56 GMT -8
IV spike. Pretty much guaranteed to tank on Thursday.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 22, 2013 12:55:21 GMT -8
IV spike. Pretty much guaranteed to tank on Thursday. Why do you think? Regardless of earnings?
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Post by mace on Jan 22, 2013 12:55:27 GMT -8
IV spike. Pretty much guaranteed to tank on Thursday. You can't write clearly . IV or share price would tank on Thursday?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 22, 2013 12:56:30 GMT -8
AAPL waking up? Momo test BCS, B/E 500ish. I like the uptrend line from the low of 496.63. A strong close and then follow through tomorrow will be welcome. I entered a conservative swing trade at $501, which I'll probably let run into a foolish play on earnings. Irrational Exuuuuuuberance....
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Post by bignav96 on Jan 22, 2013 12:58:19 GMT -8
Transcript of years CC for holiday quarter. Apologies if this has already been posted. Seems to me like AAPL didn't want to disclose mix of iPhone 4S to older iPhones, but they were willing to say that the newest iPhone at the time was handily the most favorite. That would be the case at Verizon, and I would expect Verizon to have a higher mix of older iPhones to newer iPhones based on the fact that VZ doesn't really pump iPhone as much as android, and also, most importantly, buying the subsidized iPhone 5 on VZ subjected you to data caps even if you were on an unlimited data plan previously...:
Bill Shope - Goldman Sachs: Okay. I guess, digging into the iPhone number a bit more, you gave us a lot of great color on that performance, but could you dig in a bit more to what you're learning in terms of iPhone elasticity with the new price points for the 3GS I guess in both the post and prepaid markets? I know in the past, you've talked about the iPhone in the prepaid market as sort of an evolving strategy that you all were approaching with sort of an open mind. How are you thinking about that now that you've had a full quarter with these lower price points and obviously some success there?
Tim Cook - CEO: Each of the models, the 3GS, the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 4S were important in achieving the 37 million total units, and so we are glad to cover the broad range with great products, but the iPhone 4S was clearly the most popular among those. In the postpaid market, as you know, there's a smaller difference between what the customer paid in each of these. It's larger in the prepaid markets, and so it's too early to tell given we've just started this in October as to how this will play out over time. But we are thrilled with the total result, and you can bet that we are into details in every single country in the world, trying to learn what we can learn to adjust and even do better in the future.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 22, 2013 12:58:45 GMT -8
IV spike. Pretty much guaranteed to tank on Thursday. You can't write clearly . IV or share price would tank on Thursday? I took him to mean that IV drops, and those options will tank on Thursday, not the share price.
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Post by bignav96 on Jan 22, 2013 12:59:23 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 22, 2013 13:00:02 GMT -8
Pre-earnings RUN UP!!! Saturn V time +3.7 LOL! This is more like a very old and decrepit elevator making it's way up. While it's outpacing the man on the stairs today, you're still worried about the bottom dropping out. Bring on the rocket! But it's not here yet I'll feel much better in the high 500's than here, though I think the floor below is very solid unless Apple really messed up (which I don't expect). But it has been an amazing reset on the earning estimates side. It's interesting that average 12 month stock price estimates are still so high. Today Yahoo says 717 and change, though just 1-2 weeks ago it was 730. Down a bit, but still looking at a fairly big step up (and thus P/E back at 14-15 or above). While I don't put much faith into the analysts, it's generally their job to be right and even have some margin of safety. While they've often been ridiculed by AAPL investors for having sandbagged, it's that sort of thing that caused them to overestimate a little on the times when Apple didn't meet analyst estimates. I'd much rather have them sandbag by even 10%, than have them put out too high of estimates. IMO, they likely feel the same, though would prefer to underestimate by 1-5%. It keeps the paychecks coming. And it also gives me a smile to see that their 12 month targets are still north of 700. BTW, I didn't see a link to PED's independent and pro analyst estimates. This Q's list is at tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/01/15/apple-revenue-earnings-smackdown-q1-2013/It's good to see some mixture of the pro and indy's this time. With no effort other than glancing at the list, $14 should be low but ok, $14.5 decent and slightly uplifting, and $15+ for a nice boost. IMO Apple's forward guidance is also a major influence this Q, so nothing is a sure thing about "if this happens, then the stock will do that". Fun times. Normally I go through information overload on earnings afternoons. But I might just follow JMP's example and instead look at earnings numbers, but then step away and listen or read the call later. Our 6 year old has ski lessons again tomorrow, and I might just hit the slopes too.
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Post by mace on Jan 22, 2013 13:00:39 GMT -8
Why are spreads dropping so much today while VXAPL is up? I'm thinking about using the last of my cash on some JAN 14 700/750 Bull Call Spreads...you can get the 600/650's for around $8.00 and the 700/750's for around $3.00. That seems ridiculously cheap to me. Does no one believe in AAPL anymore? If you believe in AAPL like sponge, this is the best time to enter LEAPS. Ridiculously cheap. Already have a lot of LEAPS spreads but would possibly open more after result. Cash position went from 40% in early Jan to 60%, yay, I gain .
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 22, 2013 13:06:04 GMT -8
IV spike. Pretty much guaranteed to tank on Thursday. You can't write clearly . IV or share price would tank on Thursday? IV tanks, and thus the premium on options. It happens every time, due to an unknown becoming a known. The same thing happens elsewhere, such as a big marketwide known event (fiscal cliff, or even fed notes). The question for straight options buyers is how much of an increase in the underlying would it take to overcome the drop in IV. This is one of the many times where it works out a whole lot better to buy spreads instead of straight calls (or for that matter straight puts, if that's your persuasion).
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Post by mace on Jan 22, 2013 13:08:04 GMT -8
... I took him to mean that IV drops, and those options will tank on Thursday, not the share price. I know, just want to poke him. I think fas550 thinks he meant share price. Back after 5 months, noted he is now an addicted trader and a technician.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 22, 2013 13:10:00 GMT -8
... I took him to mean that IV drops, and those options will tank on Thursday, not the share price. I know, just want to poke him. I think fas550 thinks he meant share price. Back after 5 months, noted he is now an addicted trader and a technician. Well poked then.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2013 13:17:13 GMT -8
You can't write clearly . IV or share price would tank on Thursday? IV tanks, and thus the premium on options. It happens every time, due to an unknown becoming a known. The same thing happens elsewhere, such as a big marketwide known event (fiscal cliff, or even fed notes). The question for straight options buyers is how much of an increase in the underlying would it take to overcome the drop in IV. This is one of the many times where it works out a whole lot better to buy spreads instead of straight calls (or for that matter straight puts, if that's your persuasion). What is interesting is this week is the first time you could buy weekly options for a post earnings week up to 4 weeks earlier than normal. Does anyone know what the premium on those jan week four 500 strikes were when they launched last month??
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2013 13:17:43 GMT -8
Good google & IBM results...
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Post by fas550 on Jan 22, 2013 13:21:33 GMT -8
... I took him to mean that IV drops, and those options will tank on Thursday, not the share price. I know, just want to poke him. I think fas550 thinks he meant share price. Back after 5 months, noted he is now an addicted trader and a technician. Yeah I did. After I re-read it I saw the double meaning.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 22, 2013 13:24:07 GMT -8
You can't write clearly . IV or share price would tank on Thursday? I took him to mean that IV drops, and those options will tank on Thursday, not the share price. Okay I feel pretty stupid but what is the IV? Today my shit went down 8% with the stock going up. My Jan 2014s got trashed across the board. WTF? Not just Apple. Almost like everyone lost complete belief in any Jan 2014 OTM
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 13:26:25 GMT -8
Mace, I'm watching you, you troll you.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2013 13:26:44 GMT -8
Hang on, GOOG has yet to give actual GAAP EPS, has only given EPS "excluding items"
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Post by highway2heel on Jan 22, 2013 13:27:15 GMT -8
GOOG up 4.3% AH
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 22, 2013 13:27:21 GMT -8
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Google says its fourth-quarter earnings rose 7 percent as online advertisers spent more money in pursuit of holiday shoppers.
The results announced Tuesday were slightly above analyst estimates.
It wasn't an apples-to-apples comparison because the most recent quarter included Motorola Mobility, which Google Inc. didn't own in the previous year.
Things were further complicated by Google's recent agreement to sell a part of its Motorola Mobility division that makes cable TV boxes. That division is now accounted for as a discontinued operation.
Google earned nearly $2.9 billion, or $8.62 cents per share during the final three months of last year. That compared to net income of $2.7 billion, or $8.22 per share, at the same time last year.
Revenue surged 36 percent from the previous year to $14.4 billion.
___________________
up 30 bucks after hours...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 22, 2013 13:28:43 GMT -8
While GOOG's results were good, the AH wouldn't get me where I wanted anyway.
And that's why I have to stick to what I know. At least the damage wasn't too bad.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 22, 2013 13:31:31 GMT -8
Why are spreads dropping so much today while VXAPL is up? I'm thinking about using the last of my cash on some JAN 14 700/750 Bull Call Spreads...you can get the 600/650's for around $8.00 and the 700/750's for around $3.00. That seems ridiculously cheap to me. Does no one believe in AAPL anymore? If you believe in AAPL like sponge, this is the best time to enter LEAPS. Ridiculously cheap. Already have a lot of LEAPS spreads but would possibly open more after result. Cash position went from 40% in early Jan to 60%, yay, I gain . And nobody here sees the irony in discussing what a great investment AAPL LEAPS are 4 days after all the Jan 13's expired worthless?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2013 13:32:34 GMT -8
If you believe in AAPL like sponge, this is the best time to enter LEAPS. Ridiculously cheap. Already have a lot of LEAPS spreads but would possibly open more after result. Cash position went from 40% in early Jan to 60%, yay, I gain . And nobody here sees the irony in discussing what a great investment AAPL LEAPS are 4 days after all the Jan 13's expired worthless? Not if you bought Jan 400s this time last year.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 22, 2013 13:33:32 GMT -8
Can someone explain to me the huge difference in how the market values GOOG's growth and profits per share vs how it values AAPL's growth and profits? With a much higher growth rate and higher EPS, shouldn't AAPL be priced at least as much as GOOG? That's not even considering cash per share. I've been banging my head against the wall for the last few months as GOOG stock price disconnected from AAPL and floated up, and no traditional economic theory about the stock market can explain it to me.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 22, 2013 13:37:07 GMT -8
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