Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2012 15:23:33 GMT -8
I thought I saw some trailing off end of day.
But the charts themselves don't look too shabby.
What of that divergence deal, iPad? Are we done with it now?
Btw iPad - I was wondering why Fitz never talks about AAPL on his free chart vids anymore. You still follow the guy?
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 14, 2012 21:02:43 GMT -8
Looks like we had a major MacD bullish crossover Wednesday afternoon. Ditto on Mav's question about the divergence on Friday afternoon iPad...Does this thing mean anything?
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 14, 2012 21:11:54 GMT -8
iPad - So were at ATH's, with nothing but good news on the Apple level and the Macro level close in the rear view mirrors, and nothing but blue sky above us. Is there anything from a technical perspective we should be on alert for on how far can this thing run before the inevitable retrace?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2012 22:28:33 GMT -8
I like the idea of AAPL taking a little break, even if for a day, even if it's a brief retrace that gets bought with gusto. It's a better setup both for technicals types and for non-technical retail investors.
We'll see what happens Monday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 14, 2012 22:31:02 GMT -8
iPad, is 656-697 (give or take a point or fraction of a point) a valid measuring point for Fib retraces at this point? To me that's AAPL's most recent move from intraday lows to intraday highs.
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Post by rickag on Sept 15, 2012 5:27:45 GMT -8
I had the fibonacci set from 570 to 683, just for grins I stretched it out to the high of the day but the support levels didn't match up. By stretching it up to about $710 the. The support levels started to match up with the fib retracement levels.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 15, 2012 5:32:20 GMT -8
An insight on 656: That was a 23% retracement from the top of the 570/684 range.
I think a rest would be ok too, but my spidey sense tells me we've got a little more run in us - I'm thinking $720ish based on nothing but gut instinct. There's too much fresh good news from both Apple and the Macro. Add to that the fact that the Hedgies have way underperformed the market so far this year makes me believe there will be an upward bias between now and the end of the year for the market in general and the undervalued equities delivering real fundamentals - like AAPL.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 15, 2012 5:34:01 GMT -8
rickag - Curious about what chart service are you using?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 15, 2012 7:09:34 GMT -8
Ooooh...look at all the good questions!! I'm working on charts now, and I'll be back later with updates and replies!!
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Post by Rupert on Sept 15, 2012 8:23:50 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Sept 15, 2012 9:36:35 GMT -8
rickag - Curious about what chart service are you using? I am using Trademonster's chart. I just started trading options in May so bear that in mind when reading my posts.... Meaning I really don't know what I am doing. Edit: spelling - changed mow to know.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 15, 2012 15:41:59 GMT -8
My .02 I use 567.56 as my low and 683.29 as my high, this yields 655.97772 as my 23.6% retrace and 727.52114 as my target.
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Post by rickag on Sept 15, 2012 16:49:18 GMT -8
My .02 I use 567.56 as my low and 683.29 as my high, this yields 655.97772 as my 23.6% retrace and 727.52114 as my target. I like your numbers better than mine. Thanks for the information.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 15, 2012 17:19:41 GMT -8
My .02 I use 567.56 as my low and 683.29 as my high, this yields 655.97772 as my 23.6% retrace and 727.52114 as my target. I like your numbers better than mine. Thanks for the information. Rickag, I use Forexpros Fibonacci calculator. I don't calculate myself, just type in the values. www.forexpros.com/forex-tools/fibonacci-calculator
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Post by rickag on Sept 15, 2012 17:58:27 GMT -8
Thank you. I bookmarked the site.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 15, 2012 18:13:37 GMT -8
Thank you. I bookmarked the site. Since AAPL is in a med-term uptrend I use the uptrend side. The "custom" block is where the real fun starts. Type in 656 in the custom block along with the other values as this gives more data points. I hope this helps.
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Post by prazan on Sept 15, 2012 18:26:50 GMT -8
I'm happy to see everyone here. Happy to see friends from other boards and past boards. I dropped by here looking specifically for information on fibonacci retrace levels, and hoping to see a few of lovemyipad's stellar charts.
Here's a question I'm asking myself. Given the difficulties in breaking through $680, how strongly will that convert to support?
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 15, 2012 18:41:48 GMT -8
Slick. Thanks for sharing.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2012 11:58:39 GMT -8
Technicians, which to you would have more weight?
Daily BBs suggesting a possible short-term pullback (since AAPL tends not to trade out of either BB for very long), or 4-hour or something MACD-h showing imminent crossover to the plus side?
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 16, 2012 15:18:21 GMT -8
Technicians, which to you would have more weight? Daily BBs suggesting a possible short-term pullback (since AAPL tends not to trade out of either BB for very long), or 4-hour or something MACD-h showing imminent crossover to the plus side? All I can say about the BB is that it should be much higher tomorrow morning. I could do the calculations to tell you what it will be, but alas I am in lazy mode. ;D LOL
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 16, 2012 15:40:08 GMT -8
I'm no TA fan, but here's a chart I could live with: AAPL to $800?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2012 18:23:34 GMT -8
All I can say about the BB is that it should be much higher tomorrow morning. I could do the calculations to tell you what it will be, but alas I am in lazy mode. ;D LOL You're right about the BB expansion, of course.
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Post by Big Al on Sept 17, 2012 1:56:13 GMT -8
Here's a question I'm asking myself. Given the difficulties in breaking through $680, how strongly will that convert to support? It depends on how many times we will go back to 680, but will not decisively go lower. Every bounce off 680 makes it stronger. Personally I think that we might go decisively below 680 one more time before marching towards 750 or 800. The metrics I use for trading/investing are at similar levels as they were on Sep. 20th 2011 (PE, Price-Cash, BB position, distance to 100day MA). And what followed was a short consolidation phase. However, back then the new iPhone was not yet announced and no new info on sales could keep the stock from going lower. So, while I sold most of my Dec 700 calls on Friday near the highs, I am keeping my shares and LEAPS.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 13:54:40 GMT -8
As far as charts today, some data points I picked out are:
Daily chart - MACD-h crossover into positive territory
15-min chart - MACD-h may crossover to positive, but is there anything to read from the "smoothing" MACD-h peaks and valleys from Sep. 13? Potential volatility squeeze in the BBs. Related: 10-minute hinting at continuation from MACD-h positive crossover and breakout above upper BB.
Other BBs - Daily, 4-hour, 2-hour, showing BB volatility compression has resolved to the upside (though there wasn't the same kind of narrow BB bandwidths like we saw in previous months).
Hourly MACD-h - hinting at MACD-h negative crossover.
Some overbought readings on certain timeframes, some look OK.
Mixed signals, but kind of net bullish?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 17, 2012 15:19:51 GMT -8
IMHO, that daily MACD-h positive crossover is huge.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 16:14:47 GMT -8
That IS why I picked it out first.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 18, 2012 5:43:14 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 19, 2012 12:18:06 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2012 12:23:02 GMT -8
This could be a pullback point. We'll see. Thinking of hedging into Friday anyway.
The timing could not be more perfect for AAPL to pullback, given the progression of the iPhone 5 launch.
Thing is, Laz is short AAPL, and Redler is long. Two different approaches from two somewhat different traders (Laz seems to focus much more on shorter timeframes and the 8/13/21-day something or other (SMA, EMA, I dunno)).
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 19, 2012 12:34:26 GMT -8
This could be a pullback point. We'll see. Thinking of hedging into Friday anyway. The timing could not be more perfect for AAPL to pullback, given the progression of the iPhone 5 launch. Thing is, Laz is short AAPL, and Redler is long. Two different approaches from two somewhat different traders (Laz seems to focus much more on shorter timeframes and the 8/13/21-day something or other (SMA, EMA, I dunno)). Mav, I agree something is strange. I was on the CBOE page a few minutes ago and saw where Redler said he was long AAPL.
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