|
Post by phoebear611 on Sept 24, 2012 12:06:12 GMT -8
iPad - would you kindly go thru all the technical issues at this point given today's action when you get a moment to come up for air. Thanks!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 12:21:38 GMT -8
Instinct told me not to buy. This is an "outside day" or something so it's worth watching before reacting (on my current timeframe, others' may vary***).
I like that we held the 38.2% retrace from my measured move. Now iPad, about my 8/13/21/whatever day question - EMA, SMA, I know the outputs are different, but for shorter-term trading which moving average is preferred?
|
|
|
Post by kloot on Sept 24, 2012 13:24:35 GMT -8
Instinct told me not to buy. This is an "outside day" or something so it's worth watching before reacting (on my current timeframe, others' may vary***). it's not really an outside day. that would have meant a higher high and lower low than the previous day (friday). i know the T3Live guys like the 8,13,21 EMAs. typically on the 50,150,200, peeps use SMAs. really it's just your preference (exponential vs simple) on those shorter timeframes.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:27:25 GMT -8
Oh, gotcha. Let's just go with red day then.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 13:55:30 GMT -8
Phoebes, yes, I'm studying the charts now...will compile some stuff when I wrap my brain around a few things.
Mav, my preferred template (across all timeframes): EMA-13 and SMA-20, 50, 100, and 200. I do have an EMA-8,13,21 template that I glance at throughout the day, but I find that I *always* want to know the 20-50-100 levels, whereas I only sometimes want to know other levels. Personal preference.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 13:56:23 GMT -8
So, does 8/13/21-SMA "not make sense" for a bunch of traders?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 14:46:02 GMT -8
So, does 8/13/21-SMA "not make sense" for a bunch of traders? No, makes good sense. But you can only have SO many moving averages on your chart before the whole thing's all cluttered, so I tend to keep my EMAs and my SMAs separate. It's kind of six of one and half a dozen of another. The main takeaway from looking at moving averages: when shorter timeframes are above longer timeframes, that's bullish. When below, bearish. Ditto prices. Above the moving average for the shortest timeframe is the most bullish...and it gets less bullish, more bearish as price falls below increasingly longer timeframes. Make sense?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 16:45:31 GMT -8
Could you try that again?
I thought you were talking regular 'ol measured moves (522-619 >> 97 point move).
But I think you're talking the measured move from 560-something (intraday bottom post-earnings), plus the 97-point measured move, plus 38.2%, which would put the price at around the 705 top.
And Smiting and Strikes be damned, "That said, 1.382 is pretty key in Fib-land. And that could very well be the temporary top of this upwave" just...doesn't...er...explain things well enough?
So could you please explain the temporary top theory a bit? please don't hurt me
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 17:15:40 GMT -8
iPad, just added 8/13/21-day EMA and 20/50/100-day SMA to my daily chart. That should about cover the basics for a Technicals 101 student, right?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 18:00:09 GMT -8
iPad, just added 8/13/21-day EMA and 20/50/100-day SMA to my daily chart. That should about cover the basics for a Technicals 101 student, right? Yes, and WAY TO GO!!! P.S. Mav, I make my SMAs consistent colors in all my charts...then at a mere glance, the "color recognition" goes into my brain as meaning, and I don't have to squint and figure out what the heck is happening. SMA-20 is yellow, SMA-50 is blue, SMA-100 is pink. EMA-13 is purple. Oh, and SMA-200 is red.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 18:10:10 GMT -8
If temporary top is potentially at 705 -- where do we regress to before ascending once again? My WAG would be the daily SMA-50, currently at 644.50, but every day we spend above that moving average, it goes up. Why SMA-50? And does it fit because "it's Fibonacci somewhere"? Apparently, I have to set up an account on freestockcharts to make those averages persist. Hm...
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 18:16:31 GMT -8
Mav, LOL! You got the 38.2% part... AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 18:21:43 GMT -8
Yup, so I did interpret it right. 97-ish point measured move + 38.2% extension from 570 or whatever.
OTOH, 644.50 doesn't correspond to any Fib retrace from 570-705. BUT if you're in the "It's Fibonacci Somethere(tm)" camp, I guess you could see Fib and SMA collide with the 61.8% move from 606-ish (August 1) to 705, more or less. I can respect that since I've looked into measuring from 606-ish myself.
BUT, SMA-50 is of course a moving target.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 18:23:38 GMT -8
First, recap on Fibs... Cut and paste from my AFB1 post:
Well, it’s like this on the Fibs…every “impulse” has retrace. That’s why we say the market never goes straight up or straight down. On the surface, Fibs are math, but they quantify underlying human psychology/sentiment… crowd behavior. After a certain amount of time/distance, it’s human nature to take the money and run, or to back up the truck, or to panic buy because you think the train’s leaving, or to panic sell because you’ve lost 70% and want to keep the last 30%. That sort of thing. Fibs are about proportions in any move.
When we cover the same worn territory over and over, it’s annoying as hell, but we’re building support levels, so we don’t come crashing through those levels at the merest touch again. Like that 550-585 area has a whole lotta support levels…won’t be “easily” broken. Macro would have to get extreme.
But say, we run from 570 to 670…we’re going to give back at least 25% of that…and probably 50%. When sellers are confident, they can hold out for higher prices…when fearful, they’ll accept the bid price. When buyers are confident, they can hold out for lower prices…when fearful, they’ll accept the ask price. And the pendulum seems to swing in a range—and Fibs measure the proportions within that range.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 18:26:33 GMT -8
Bleh. Technicals are so confusing.
Anything goes when AAPL weakens. All I can do is watch for levels and reference points.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 18:29:34 GMT -8
So...why 138.2% is a key level... Has to do with the proportion thing. That first big upwave, looking at the weekly MACD-h, we can say went from 522.18 to 619.87. So if you take the Fib grid from 522.18 to 619.87 and scoot it over, so 570.00 is your new start...you see the Fib expansion. (See my blue Fib grid.)
The idea is...from a proportion standpoint, the next big upwave would likely target 100% at minimum -- the exact same amount of "up" as last time before retrace kicked in. So that put us at 667.69. But, if it's strong, it can extend further. The next "most" likely targets are 138.2% and 161.8%.
I would say, bigger picture...this is our Fib grid. Watch these levels: up and down.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 18:32:35 GMT -8
Bleh. Technicals are so confusing. Anything goes when AAPL weakens. All I can do is watch for levels and reference points. "All you can do" is the very best thing TO do!! So you're doing exactly what a good trader SHOULD do!! No one knows what comes next...beyond WAGs...so we just take it level by level.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 18:39:19 GMT -8
Why SMA-50? And does it fit because "it's Fibonacci somewhere"? It all fits together. Fibs and moving averages and trendlines. They all tend to point to the same places. (Confluence.) Bigger picture...whenever I get back to basics...it's the daily chart and the weekly chart. If you had to scrap 90% of technicals and just keep 10%, that's what you keep. SMA-20, 50, 100, 200. Take out one level, target the next. Fail to take it out, turn around and go the other way. So if we lose SMA-20...I'd have my eye on SMA-50... Should we get there, at that point, there will very likely be confluence with Fibs and trendlines at that same level. It just works that way... the whole proportional thing. Or, as I like to think of it: MAGIC!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 18:49:32 GMT -8
iPad - measured moves are the "easy" part.
Quick look at the charts:
Getting closer to oversold on 1/2-hour timeframes but the charts look ugly as far as volatility resolution to downside.
Daily chart definitely showing caution signals. Oversold bounce in a day or two?
Weekly - still a bit early for concern, though that assessment brings over potential Apple events and product releases.
Going with the hourly and later charts for clues for now. 10/15-min charts are skewed by the mid-day bounce from 684ish.
MACD-h(s) certainly aren't looking great, though I forget the "uptrend/downtrend" test and which indicator(s) factor into that.
|
|
|
Post by davidcv100 on Sept 25, 2012 7:56:16 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART: Bullish above upper red line...bearish below...with measured move shown. Thanks iPad. Based on your MM target, if aapl drops to $670, I will position more aggressively with Feb 700s, otherwise, just sitting tight.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 10:46:42 GMT -8
Just a reminder:
As iPad and many of us sometimes "forget" to say, it's not advice, not a prediction, etc., it's your portfolio and due diligence and responsibility and all the rest.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 25, 2012 11:16:28 GMT -8
Ms. IPad, could you please provide some insight into what Avi Gilbert is thinking these days? I know he was waiting for a run-up, and that this was supposed to be followed by a significant correction. Are we in his correction now?
|
|
|
Post by davidcv100 on Sept 25, 2012 12:22:49 GMT -8
Just a reminder: As iPad and many of us sometimes "forget" to say, it's not advice, not a prediction, etc., it's your portfolio and due diligence and responsibility and all the rest. Agreed, +1000 on that.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 12:33:50 GMT -8
iPad...charts read TILT?
I'll give 'em a quick scan later. Your thoughts on if I'm on the right track are appreciated.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 14:05:22 GMT -8
Ms. IPad, could you please provide some insight into what Avi Gilbert is thinking these days? I know he was waiting for a run-up, and that this was supposed to be followed by a significant correction. Are we in his correction now? Hi, RG! Note Avi levels refer to SPX Futures (ES)Avi summary: Everything hinges on 1420. If that level holds, upside target is 1500-1575. Lose that level, and downside target is 1300-1350.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 15:04:51 GMT -8
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 15:16:45 GMT -8
That's some good reading.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 15:18:53 GMT -8
Ms. IPad, could you please provide some insight into what Avi Gilbert is thinking these days? I know he was waiting for a run-up, and that this was supposed to be followed by a significant correction. Are we in his correction now? Hi, RG! Note Avi levels refer to SPX Futures (ES)Avi summary: Everything hinges on 1420. If that level holds, upside target is 1500-1575. Lose that level, and downside target is 1300-1350. Though it might be too cute to say if 1420 fails as support at any point, it's game over until 1350 or whatever. I think an AAPL-like move that slashes through support is more noteworthy than a "line in the sand" mindset, and even strong signals could use more data. Am I misinterpreting?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 15:32:09 GMT -8
Though it might be too cute to say if 1420 fails as support at any point, it's game over until 1350 or whatever. I think an AAPL-like move that slashes through support is more noteworthy than a "line in the sand" mindset, and even strong signals could use more data. Am I misinterpreting? Misinterpreting. Not "at any point." In the short-short-term on this particular wave. And that's just my two-second summary of Avi's detailed charts, analyses, and contingency statements. Remember, he's an EW guy. Remember how well (!) everyone followed Mace's EW?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 15:33:56 GMT -8
That's some good reading. Scott really is an EXCELLENT trader and trading coach!! Plus, he's an unapologetic Apple fan, so he gets extra props for that!!
|
|