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Post by rutgersguy92 on Sept 25, 2012 16:45:39 GMT -8
Ms. IPad, could you please provide some insight into what Avi Gilbert is thinking these days? I know he was waiting for a run-up, and that this was supposed to be followed by a significant correction. Are we in his correction now? Hi, RG! Note Avi levels refer to SPX Futures (ES)Avi summary: Everything hinges on 1420. If that level holds, upside target is 1500-1575. Lose that level, and downside target is 1300-1350. Thank you.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 18:31:46 GMT -8
Bleh.
Taking it day by day. Nothing wrong with AAPL longer-term, but we've lost momentum as of right now. Just gotta keep an eye on my levels.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 18:37:12 GMT -8
Let's try this again... AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART: Watch these Fibs!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 18:38:52 GMT -8
There we go!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 18:50:05 GMT -8
YAY!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 18:51:45 GMT -8
A little non-YAY... See weekly chart. See Bollinger bands. See hook. (For newbies: means consolidation) Also, see weekly MACD-h. See negative slope. (For newbies: means intermediate-downwave/consolidation period in a longer-term uptrend.)
Of course, all of this can change with the next market tick. But until it does...this is what it's saying as of the moment.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 18:56:45 GMT -8
(...) Note for newer forum members: iPad's non-advice was to find the keys to warm up the truck. Not the same as backing up the truck to load up on AAPLs. Important to note, because per that daily chart, oversold can still mean massive pain. See AAPL 560-ish >> about 520 capitulation bottom in mid-May. And while this IS AAPL, and laws of physics typically apply, past isn't necessarily prelude, so always be prepared for anything. Thanks, Mav! Excellent non-advice! My current plan...on the next BIG oversold bounce, if we don't get our assets above the daily SMA-20 on the retest, I'm going for another round of bear spreads.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 18:58:02 GMT -8
Bear _put_ spreads? Boo. (Fine, I'm just jealous because hedging with AAPL for cash flow hasn't worked for me this year.)
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 19:31:17 GMT -8
Bear _put_ spreads? Boo. (Fine, I'm just jealous because hedging with AAPL for cash flow hasn't worked for me this year.) Mav, you were just a little early this go-round...so was I. Remember, I flipped bears to bulls a few times. Actually, my ideal "take the edge off" downtrend strategy (when it works) is to leg bull put spreads.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 7:26:20 GMT -8
AAPL INTRADAY 15-MIN CHART: EDIT: last version chopped off a Fib, so updated this one...
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 27, 2012 7:45:00 GMT -8
OK, I'm a newbie re: TA. Could you please explain what indicates another potential pullback today or tomorrow. I see where you noted "bullish above 683, bearish below." What makes that the pivot point?
If my questions require more detailed understanding on my part in order to understand your answers, please recommend a good source for obtaining the requisite background knowledge. I may be an old dog, but I don't mind trying to learn new tricks.
Thanks!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 8:27:47 GMT -8
OK, I'm a newbie re: TA. Could you please explain what indicates another potential pullback today or tomorrow. I see where you noted "bullish above 683, bearish below." What makes that the pivot point? If my questions require more detailed understanding on my part in order to understand your answers, please recommend a good source for obtaining the requisite background knowledge. I may be an old dog, but I don't mind trying to learn new tricks. Thanks! PikesPique, that's a GREAT question! Yes, I can explain this a bit more AND provide some reference material... I'll be back after market!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 8:28:35 GMT -8
iPad, I GIVE UP.
Which could be a VERY BAD SIGN.
Anyway...
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 27, 2012 8:33:48 GMT -8
PikesPique, that's a GREAT question! Yes, I can explain this a bit more AND provide some reference material... I'll be back after market! Thanks, Lovey. I'll be waiting in the lounge, drinking a craft beer.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 8:34:16 GMT -8
iPad, I GIVE UP. Which could be a VERY BAD SIGN. Anyway... Mav, consider "giving up" with spreads, not unhedged calls. Spreads = win-win. Remember that one time when you hedged half of your calls? That was SMART!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 8:41:55 GMT -8
Fibs are MAGIC!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 8:50:14 GMT -8
Not on the upside from what I can gather, unless you count that mystery 653 print. 660 didn't hit any levels I could remember.
Anyway, I took my flier based on the hourly chart. If I'm gonna be an idiot, I'm gonna be a semi-principled idiot (backstop for protection part of the trade, anyway). If I'm totally wrong, then obviously there was nothing to see here, move along, etc.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 9:36:53 GMT -8
Mav, see the 2 retrace levels in the pink Fib grid... 38.2% and 61.8%
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 9:56:32 GMT -8
Second-level. Fib expansion. Brain is TILT.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 27, 2012 11:01:20 GMT -8
iPad - Are you still "Bullish above 683, Bearish below"? $582.17 was HOD up about $17 for the day, and currently sitting at $680. That seems like too much up too fast. I'm with Mav - brain is on Tilt. Is the downtrend over? Entering consolidation between $660 and $680? Or, back up to new highs? I'm thinking this is an EO manipulation to the max. Whiplash...my neck hurts.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 27, 2012 11:55:09 GMT -8
iPad - Re MACD:
Dailiy - today it peaked about 11:15, crossed the 21 period line about 11:45, and continued a slow decline back towards and just above the zero (center) line while the stock price hugged $680. Is this a sign of weakness? A bearish divergence?
Weekly (5 day)- Wednesday morning at 10am the 12 period crossed the 21 period while still in negative territory and they are both now approaching the zero (center) line. Is this a strong indicator of strength?
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 12:24:32 GMT -8
iPad - Are you still "Bullish above 683, Bearish below"? $682.17 was HOD up about $17 for the day, and currently sitting at $680. That seems like too much up too fast. I'm with Mav - brain is on Tilt. Is the downtrend over? Entering consolidation between $660 and $680? Or, back up to new highs? I'm thinking this is an EO manipulation to the max. Whiplash...my neck hurts. Yes. To all of it. We need more data... This is "wait and see..." Lemme study the charts and return in a bit...
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 27, 2012 13:25:41 GMT -8
iPad - Are you still "Bullish above 683, Bearish below"? $582.17 was HOD up about $17 for the day, and currently sitting at $680. That seems like too much up too fast. I'm with Mav - brain is on Tilt. Is the downtrend over? Entering consolidation between $660 and $680? Or, back up to new highs? I'm thinking this is an EO manipulation to the max. Whiplash...my neck hurts. icam, if we get to 582 the bears will be wiping me off their mouth.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 17:07:30 GMT -8
Okay, revised for my most bullish EW count , and hopefully simplified the Fibs. Notes and replies in next post. AAPL INTRADAY 30-MIN CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 17:31:47 GMT -8
Bull or bear, I _still_ don't care. I'm fine with "most likely scenario" market non-reads non-advice too. Though to be consistent, I can't risk diluting the quality of technicals discussion with my latest read/trade until conviction kinda lines up with fact. I may know as early as Friday.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 17:47:53 GMT -8
Anyone: what do you see in this chart? AAPL INTRADAY 60-MIN CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 17:54:21 GMT -8
Well, I hinted that I saw something, but I dunno if it was a mirage. More likely to share tomorrow if I was right. And if you're seeing something really, really bearish, just...nevermind me... Looking at stuff unrelated to my tinfoil hat theory, though...on Fib downtrend retracement, Fibonacci _could_ be magic? And that WmR% whatever thingy (derivative of a derivative?) looks promising for reasons I can't really explain.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 18:03:37 GMT -8
OK, I'm a newbie re: TA. Could you please explain what indicates another potential pullback today or tomorrow. I see where you noted "bullish above 683, bearish below." What makes that the pivot point? (...) PikesPique, the foundation of all my technical knowledge was laid by the book TRADING FOR A LIVING by Alexander Elder. I've read many after that one, but that's the one that draws me back time and again -- highly recommended! On the question of what indicated another potential pullback, take a look back through my annotated charts from last week. Read the notes, then let me know what doesn't make sense -- we'll take it from there. The 683 pivot comes from multiple places, which is what makes it "key" to me. See the previous 60-minute chart (white) and you'll see the two previous tops (resistance) at that level, and more recently, the one bottom (support) that was then lost. So it's like a swing state...key battleground. Bears want to reclaim as resistance, and bulls want to reclaim as support. The winner of that level will be favored to win the next 30-50 points. Make sense? The other indicator is the Fib levels...if you look at the chart prior to the last... Again, it's about proportions. Reclaiming 50% of lost ground means you have a fighting chance....61.8%, even better...78.6% and chances are you'll reclaim all 100%.
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Post by prazan on Sept 27, 2012 18:16:44 GMT -8
I don't see anything, but then, I'm bleary eyed after spending the past 24 hours in the maternity ward. I put my portfolio on auto-pilot this week, which probably will perform better without my intervention. But I always make time to drop by this thread, if no others.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 27, 2012 18:18:13 GMT -8
I don't see anything, but then, I'm bleary eyed after spending the past 24 hours in the maternity ward. I put my portfolio on auto-pilot this week, which probably will perform better without my intervention. But I always make time to drop by this thread, if no others. MATERNITY WARD?!?!?!?!?!?! Tell, tell, tell!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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