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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 16:55:44 GMT -8
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 17:17:06 GMT -8
I've been waiting for an iPhone wiht a larger display than the 4" in the iPhone 5. I was disappointed to read this story. www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/ipad-5-set-for-october-debut-with-design-similar-to-ipad-mini-iphone-5s-and-lower-cost-iphone-moving-forward/"Addressing the so-called “iPhone Math”—hinted by one source as a mistranslation of “iPhone +”—we’ve been told that this is another new model and in early prototyping stages, certainly not expected in 2013. It supposedly has a 4.7” screen, at least for the time being. It might never make it to market, and plenty could change before it does. Consider it Apple’s “just in case / Plan B” hedge against ever-growing Android phone screen sizes." We really will be in big trouble if Apple does not provide an option for people who want a larger display. Cook thinks the 4" display is perfect. I don't. And I am not alone.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Jan 26, 2013 17:25:06 GMT -8
Maybe Nansen was an EO. He wanted more and more people to buy leaps and margin from 620 on down. And now it's finally sling shot time. Is zaky next. Like what does he even say. This sell off has taught me four things. 1) yes I don't believe technicals can make u rich or predict future but they can limit ur down side big time and force u to take profit at times. Example just holding common above 50 day or options above 20 dayEMA 2) like the o Neil guy says at IBD take profit in increments (25% or maybe let pricncipal ride after that. And 75% options 3) 8% drop and sell common and 25% options . Ur thesis is not happening right now so wait for a better opportunity.. 4) never have all ur portfolio money in one company. At best 2-3 others and/or a size able amount of cash. Apple is the best company In the world and definitely the best growth to priced company. But it doesn't matter. Humans are irrational and emotions can rule die short periods of time and short periods of time can be days weeks months or years. Behavioral finance. The market is emotions and all about perception of beating "the number" Stocks can remain irrational longer than we can remain solevant(JMK)..Don't buy the falling knife and I know I never will again I think we all on this board and Nansen fell into group think and confirmation biases. Cynicism sure but not wise kind that made us critically think. Check out this book "The Number: How the Drive for Quarterly Earnings Corrupted Wall Street and Corporate America" Recommended by Pittsburgh's own Mark Cuban in this blog post blogmaverick.com/2013/01/10/the-stock-market-2/It's not about dividends growth and PE anymore. The Internet and 24/7 TV has made it great to obtain information. But even greater for people to manipulate and over hype or destroy a company. And stock quotes merely reflect this level of hype even the best and biggest company apple. Think kass. And companies don't care they just go about giving execs more options diluting the "ownership" shareholders have. They aren't owners these days and Wall Street doesn't want them to be. As Cuban says " I may be a cynic when it comes to the stock market, but I am an informed cynic, and that has helped me make some very, very profitable decisions in the market." Well I hope in the future this informed cynic that I am helps me be more profitable www.amazon.com/The-Number-Quarterly-Corrupted-ebook/dp/B000FBFN1KPS yes that's amazon kindle link bcuz I hate how apple I book isn't open to other devices and as far as I know not even MACS. Stupid IMO. Although iBook is a nice app.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2013 17:27:35 GMT -8
I've been waiting for an iPhone wiht a larger display than the 4" in the iPhone 5. I was disappointed to read this story. www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/ipad-5-set-for-october-debut-with-design-similar-to-ipad-mini-iphone-5s-and-lower-cost-iphone-moving-forward/"Addressing the so-called “iPhone Math”—hinted by one source as a mistranslation of “iPhone +”—we’ve been told that this is another new model and in early prototyping stages, certainly not expected in 2013. It supposedly has a 4.7” screen, at least for the time being. It might never make it to market, and plenty could change before it does. Consider it Apple’s “just in case / Plan B” hedge against ever-growing Android phone screen sizes." We really will be in big trouble if Apple does not provide an option for people who want a larger display. Cook thinks the 4" display is perfect. I don't. And I am not alone. Just curious - what's your main desire for a larger screen device? Is it for reading books? Or Visibility? Or because it replaces the need for a tablet? Some other reason?
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 17:45:23 GMT -8
I've been waiting for an iPhone wiht a larger display than the 4" in the iPhone 5. I was disappointed to read this story. www.macrumors.com/2013/01/25/ipad-5-set-for-october-debut-with-design-similar-to-ipad-mini-iphone-5s-and-lower-cost-iphone-moving-forward/"Addressing the so-called “iPhone Math”—hinted by one source as a mistranslation of “iPhone +”—weÂ’ve been told that this is another new model and in early prototyping stages, certainly not expected in 2013. It supposedly has a 4.7” screen, at least for the time being. It might never make it to market, and plenty could change before it does. Consider it AppleÂ’s “just in case / Plan B” hedge against ever-growing Android phone screen sizes." We really will be in big trouble if Apple does not provide an option for people who want a larger display. Cook thinks the 4" display is perfect. I don't. And I am not alone. Just curious - what's your main desire for a larger screen device? Is it for reading books? Or Visibility? Or because it replaces the need for a tablet? Some other reason? Hi burgess. As an iPhone user, I would like a larger display to see more text of my emails, more of an Internet page, and larger pictures and video. It would be nice to see another row of icons horizontally, but that is not as big of an issue to me. As an investor (who lost my ass last week), I am concerned that MANY customers are choosing the Samsung S3 and Note over the iPhone due to the display size. I was just in a Verizon store and the iPhone does not show well compared to the screen size of the Samsung units. The Apple ecosystem is fantastic. People should not be forced to purchase a one-size-fits-all iPhone (I know the 4 and 4s are still available for the lower end of the market). There should be different models to satisfy different market segments. From the conference call I got the impression that Apple believes a 4” display is perfect. The fact is that a large percentage of smart phone customers want larger displays. Apple is not addressing this market.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2013 17:48:50 GMT -8
I think we all on this board and Nansen fell into group think and confirmation biases. Cynicism sure but not wise kind that made us critically think. Good post - although I have to disagree a little on the comment above, I think most on this board who worked estimates for Q1 were quite conservative, AND knew that Q2 is going to be negative year on year. Our mistake was thinking that Wall Street and the market knew this as well, but judging by the huge sell off this week - apparently not. HOWEVER, from Q3 onwards myself (and I presume most here) know that EPS will be heading back up with positive y-o-y comparisons, and by the same logic I now think Wall Street and the market DO NOT THINK THIS. Therefore it is likely that once apple gives Q3 guidance during Aprils earnings, we will see a big change in sentiment - the opposite thing to what we saw this week. see my longer post here: aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=fundamentals&thread=297&page=1#27253
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Post by newton on Jan 26, 2013 18:01:09 GMT -8
The fact is that a large percentage of smart phone customers want larger displays. Apple is not addressing this market. Do you have any actual data that supports this statement? Does Samsung breakdown their smartphones numbers into % ? I'm not trying to argue with you; just genuinely interested in seeing some hard data before drawing any conclusions.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 26, 2013 18:10:51 GMT -8
interest in all things AAPL are falling here. From earlier this week: (an all time record) moments ago:
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Post by appledoc on Jan 26, 2013 18:20:24 GMT -8
I remember some time ago Gregg pointing out that when the stock starts to sell off 3 weeks before earnings, it is a sign the big boys know something is wrong. Well history repeats itself and one can look at the weekend threads to see the pattern. Three weeks prior to Oct earnings the stock was falling from 652-604 and then again in January from 527 to 500. Lets see what happens in April. The big boys didn't know jack.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 18:24:05 GMT -8
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Jan 26, 2013 19:28:27 GMT -8
I think we all on this board and Nansen fell into group think and confirmation biases. Cynicism sure but not wise kind that made us critically think. Good post - although I have to disagree a little on the comment above, I think most on this board who worked estimates for Q1 were quite conservative, AND knew that Q2 is going to be negative year on year. Our mistake was thinking that Wall Street and the market knew this as well, but judging by the huge sell off this week - apparently not. HOWEVER, from Q3 onwards myself (and I presume most here) know that EPS will be heading back up with positive y-o-y comparisons, and by the same logic I now think Wall Street and the market DO NOT THINK THIS. Therefore it is likely that once apple gives Q3 guidance during Aprils earnings, we will see a big change in sentiment - the opposite thing to what we saw this week. see my longer post here: aaplfinance.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=fundamentals&thread=297&page=1#27253Yes I definitely think ur right. The bar is low and sentiment is bad. We don't have to compete with the best quarter of all time. Plus I do think product rumor season starts soon with itv possibility before summer... I by no means think apple is done. I think by changing guidance and by changing the culture of EPS beats it will be a more consistent and steady stock. I think TC had that in mind. Long term isn't a year to 2 years its 5-10 years. I just want to have the patience to wait till we regain strength before jumping on board(50,200, Whatever arbitrary number u want to use). Catching the bottom is no easy tak.
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Post by rosie on Jan 26, 2013 19:36:55 GMT -8
Re: the town hall meeting.... m.9to5mac.com/9to5mac/#!/entry/apples-town-hall-meeting-tim-cook-talks-android-china-earnings,51049978d7fc7b567006c58d
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Post by prazan on Jan 26, 2013 19:39:04 GMT -8
The fact is that a large percentage of smart phone customers want larger displays. Apple is not addressing this market. Do you have any actual data that supports this statement? Does Samsung breakdown their smartphones numbers into % ? I'm not trying to argue with you; just genuinely interested in seeing some hard data before drawing any conclusions. U.S. phone sales data doesn't support the argument that large display sizes are more popular. Apple gained share at Verizon this past quarter, and Verizon is the king of the big screen. In other markets, the big screen might be more popular.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 19:56:45 GMT -8
Do you have any actual data that supports this statement? Does Samsung breakdown their smartphones numbers into % ? I'm not trying to argue with you; just genuinely interested in seeing some hard data before drawing any conclusions. U.S. phone sales data doesn't support the argument that large display sizes are more popular. Apple gained share at Verizon this past quarter, and Verizon is the king of the big screen. In other markets, the big screen might be more popular. To me this points to Apple's great ecosystem and wonderful ease of use, not that a significant percentage of the market does not want a larger display. How about offering the iPhone 5 and another model with a larger display? Apple needs to give customers a choice. Not including the iPhone, what percentage of smartphones sold at Verizon or ATT had a display larger than 4"? I don't know the exact number, but my guess would be greater than 75%.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 20:09:57 GMT -8
Re: the town hall meeting.... m.9to5mac.com/9to5mac/#!/entry/apples-town-hall-meeting-tim-cook-talks-android-china-earnings,51049978d7fc7b567006c58d Some "red meat" for Apple employees, to use a turn of phrase. Wonder if there's any Twitter accounts of the pep talk. (Well, not if anyone who was there values their job, I guess...) Tim was saying what employees wanted to hear, which is only natural. In the next month or two, the focus may shift to the shareholders.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 20:16:27 GMT -8
U.S. phone sales data doesn't support the argument that large display sizes are more popular. Apple gained share at Verizon this past quarter, and Verizon is the king of the big screen. In other markets, the big screen might be more popular. I wouldn't necessarily conclude that there's always been a genuine market preference for bigger screens. Maybe it was just good strategy. After all, Everyone Else™ decided that a good way to go up against Apple was to Go Big™. If most every Android vendor who still matters pushed mix and promoted bigger screens, what else was gonna happen? Their CEOs and testers have pockets and hands. They have competent design and build teams. Fast followers excel at "good enough". Congratulate the competition for fostering the market for larger screens and differentiating on that basis. But as iPhone in AT&T and Verizon have shown, iPhone is very capable of holding its own against Hugephones™. The next significant growth opportunity is faster-growing markets like Greater China, which itself is in the midst of a mix-shift to smartphones. The game isn't over yet in those markets, and Apple knows that success is far from guaranteed.
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Post by alice on Jan 26, 2013 20:24:00 GMT -8
Here's my concern - please tell me if you think it's unwarranted.: There will be market liquidations and shorts will possibly/probably press. Hedge funds love to manipulate their shorts to levels where there are stops or where they can crack a weak technical support level. Remember a lot of these guys know each other and are quite often in the same trade...so more pressure in the same direction. I am not a technician - but the 437-438 level, then the 420-425 level, and of course the 400 level (which psychologically - like 500 was pretty awful) have been spoken about by other technicians. If there are no natural buyers and margin sales are, as we know, market orders - I don't see how it won't get ugly before it gets better. Every bullish fund manager interviewed in the latter half of the week said that although they may consider buying more, they need the stock to stabilize first. Feel free to poke holes in my thinking because it will only make me feel better - but I'm not trying to be a cheerleader, I'm trying to be realistic. I would expect buy orders waiting at the gap area at $420 level. At least I hope so.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 20:25:38 GMT -8
U.S. phone sales data doesn't support the argument that large display sizes are more popular. Apple gained share at Verizon this past quarter, and Verizon is the king of the big screen. In other markets, the big screen might be more popular. I wouldn't necessarily conclude that there's always been a genuine market preference for bigger screens. Maybe it was just good strategy. After all, Everyone Else™ decided that a good way to go up against Apple was to Go Big™. If most every Android vendor who still matters pushed mix and promoted bigger screens, what else was gonna happen? Their CEOs and testers have pockets and hands. They have competent design and build teams. Fast followers excel at "good enough". Congratulate the competition for fostering the market for larger screens and differentiating on that basis. But as iPhone in AT&T and Verizon have shown, iPhone is very capable of holding its own against Hugephones™. The next significant growth opportunity is faster-growing markets like Greater China, which itself is in the midst of a mix-shift to smartphones. The game isn't over yet in those markets, and Apple knows that success is far from guaranteed. Why should Apple cede the +4" display market to Android?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 26, 2013 20:31:43 GMT -8
Nansen? He must have capitulated to Thailand. Well, whatever. moltenfire, I'm not sure I even want to respond, but since I have this problem where I have to crusade for common sense in the market - try to use some common sense. There's a Marianas Trench between perpetually disrespected stock and 1x cash valuation from a $170B company with slowing growth. Mav, I know it's nuts to consider a 1x cash valuation. Just throwing it out as an example of market irrationality, which admittedly we've all seen too much lately. Every time we make a comparison to the past it has broken. The term support level at any number simply has not existed. Growth investors are getting out and continue to get out based on avg daily vol. Given zero EPS growth for the foreseeable future they have no reason to stay in. Value investors may be waiting till price stabilizes (a catch 22) or the PE hits 6 or 7. Every retail investor I have talked to want nothing to do with it anymore because they view it as a caustic stock with zero predictability. Fundamentals don't seem to matter to anyone and given the cash is irrelevant from an investor standpoint that's not a factor. Basically anyone that may buy is waiting for other buyers because they don't want to get burned (catch 22).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 20:36:02 GMT -8
Why should Apple cede the +4" display market to Android? You're assuming that they are. Some may have assumed Apple was ceding the 7" tablet market to Android too. The iPhone 5 seems to have found a decent following. And yes, Tim said "we thought this through and we like things as they are." But as Steve's epic rants of misdirection should inform, never take a "no" from Apple as definitive. "TV is for turning your brain off." "We think PPC is superior to Intel." "We don't want to do a Mac tablet." "7-inch tablets are DOA." (Except for an iToaster. Or maybe a combination fridge-oven. Those are probably safe bets.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 20:39:37 GMT -8
Because your anecdotal sample is scared, AAPL is hosed.
Um, OK. I hope that sample didn't also say NFLX and AMZN are sure-fire stocks to short, either.
Seriously, dial in some more. Multiply the multiples by the EPS. Think about the pitchforks and torches scenarios. Think about how much sense those scenarios would make. Think about book value and cash value. Think about other caustically low-growth companies. Ask yourself if this is the uncertainty of not having been through this before, more than once. Don't let sentiment blind you.
I have no idea what's next with AAPL. But I _do_ know I will put out distractions and FUD and focus on facts and technical trends as much as possible. You can't fight sentiment, but you can always arm yourself with knowledge and preparation.
The iMac, for example. Important, but maybe 3% of Apple's quarterly revenue...on a good quarter. If even that. Perspective matters.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 20:50:00 GMT -8
You're assuming that they are. Hi Mav. I'm not assuming anything. It's prima facie. Apple does not offer an iPhone with a display larger than 4". Apple might come out with a larger iPhone in the future, but according to the link I posted earlier, it is not going to happen in 2013. My impression is that Apple executives are sitting in their ivory tower making product decisions without doing basic market research. Get the damn phone out and take away one of the biggest reasons why some people decide to buy an Android phone, or switch from iPhone to Android. Keep the 4" iPhone on the market. But give customers a choice. Soon.
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icam
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Post by icam on Jan 26, 2013 20:54:17 GMT -8
Re: the town hall meeting.... m.9to5mac.com/9to5mac/#!/entry/apples-town-hall-meeting-tim-cook-talks-android-china-earnings,51049978d7fc7b567006c58d Some "red meat" for Apple employees, to use a turn of phrase. Wonder if there's any Twitter accounts of the pep talk. (Well, not if anyone who was there values their job, I guess...) Tim was saying what employees wanted to hear, which is only natural. In the next month or two, the focus may shift to the shareholders. Why do you think the focus may shift to the shareholders in the next month or two? In that article he is clear in stating "...share price is not Apples focus. Making new products that customers love is the priority. Revenue and share price is just a by-product of Apples efforts." This is the same stance he's taken all along. And we're all well aware of his complete disappearing act when it has come to getting involved in any way what so ever with defending the stock price and the shareholders. I haven't seen any indicators of this changing any time soon....I hope I'm wrong.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 21:38:18 GMT -8
C'mon.
Shareholder meeting.
Goldman Sachs conference?
March update on dividend, even?
One of these three WILL happen, minimum. Shareholder focused.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 26, 2013 21:41:54 GMT -8
And it was presumptive through the first half of 2012 that Apple was ceding the smaller tablet market.
Apple does not run on our schedules. It never has. Which is why it repudiated Apple expos.
Maybe its torrent of success made us forgetful.
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Post by rosie on Jan 26, 2013 22:10:37 GMT -8
"Revenue and share price is just a by-product of Apples efforts."
This is almost an embarrassing statement. It's like "hi ho hi ho, it's off to work we go...'cause $ is just a by product of having fun doing work".
I think TC is doing a great job being pro active for his employees. And giving to charity. And advocating for worker's rights . And getting all the wonderful devices to the retail and on line customers albeit some more efficiently than others.
And the Apple employees? They, too , are share holders.
My guess is the company will attend to the well being of the stock. And hopefully TC can stop really inane statements about a higher purpose.
As for whoever it was here who was talking about the small stuff...iPad covers, white plugs and earpods w/black phones...one only has to go on line to the help sites at Apple to realize a lotta small stuff is ignored by the company.
My favorite is the wireless keyboard on a Mac...works great until it doesn't. The universal fix has become a piece of aluminum foil (left over from our tin foil hats , no doubt) to re establish a contact so the damned thing will work again. In Europe the fix is a piece of steel wool...didn't even know that existed in this century, but that works , too. When my keyboard first ceased to function I called Apple Help...they had never heard of the problem. Lots of other glitchy things, too, which I'm sure you have all experienced.
But all in all? Great products, great company and like I said, hopefully the needs of stock holders will be addressed in a pro active way very soon.
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Post by applemuncher on Jan 26, 2013 22:16:37 GMT -8
And it was presumptive through the first half of 2012 that Apple was ceding the smaller tablet market. Apple does not run on our schedules. It never has. Which is why it repudiated Apple expos. Maybe its torrent of success made us forgetful. Maybe Apple needs to change.
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benoir
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Post by benoir on Jan 27, 2013 1:21:09 GMT -8
"Revenue and share price is just a by-product of Apples efforts." This is almost an embarrassing statement. It's like "hi ho hi ho, it's off to work we go...'cause $ is just a by product of having fun doing work". I think TC is doing a great job being pro active for his employees. And giving to charity. And advocating for worker's rights . And getting all the wonderful devices to the retail and on line customers albeit some more efficiently than others. And the Apple employees? They, too , are share holders. My guess is the company will attend to the well being of the stock. And hopefully TC can stop really inane statements about a higher purpose. ........ But all in all? Great products, great company and like I said, hopefully the needs of stock holders will be addressed in a pro active way very soon. Respectfully Rosie, I think Cook is on the money. Without Apple, AAPL is nothing. The "higher purpose" is everything that has generated the incredible growth in AAPL. It's because Apple is a great company with great products and a great culture that over the long haul it has survived and thrived. I have a design business and my mantra to my staff has always been that we provide good design first and because we do that we expect to be paid well. If we started out with the premises that our aim was to make a lot of money then I don't believe I would have succeeded. There are lots of people out there that can design and for me to be successful means that I have to differentiate from the rest of the market and the way I choose to do that is by providing the best service I can, consistently. If my main aim was to make as much money as possible then I would probably compromise on service and design quality. Apple stands alone in its sector, where all others commoditise their products and race to the bottom in the margin squeeze. Apple must stay focused on what it is that they do best and that is to provide their customers with the best experience they can. And revenue and share price is the resultant by product of that. Yes, it is true that at the moment there is a disconnect - I too have lost so much in the last few months, both real and paper value. But Apple is not totally responsible for AAPLs woes. Over the long run AAPL will be fine.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2013 1:47:24 GMT -8
In some surprising ways, Apple is a $170B+...design shop.
Think Different has its ups and downs. And a company dead set on marching to the beat of its own drum is very capable of ticking off shareholders on an epic scale, like times like these.
A DNA-embedded "quirk" that highlights the "agony" part of AAPL. (If you know what I mean.)
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Post by benoir on Jan 27, 2013 2:13:59 GMT -8
Design is king ( yeah I'm biased). And yeah, sort of understand your point. We all know that APple has that DNA so we have to cognascant of the potential perils and rewards that brings to AAPL. However in the past year I have either made three poor investments for the short term, or I have made good dollar cost averaging investments for the long run.
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