Post by mjuarez on Sept 23, 2012 23:52:04 GMT -8
Sept 23, 2012 23:28:47 GMT -8 @greggthurman said:
Think about it. Apple is on the west coast, and any announcement is most likely going to be around 11:00 AM PST (2:00 PM EST). The market is only going to have 2 hours to absorb and act on the data. Tuesday will be the day of action, followed by a short lived sell off through Friday. The argument being that AAPL at $750 is too frothy. Bull crap. Sellers just need an excuse to cover their weak ass conviction. That's true Gregg. But also consider that there will be big expectations for those numbers, so the stock might gap up in the morning. The actual response when the numbers come out may be muted, because they're already "priced in", unless they're either completely disappointing, or out of this world.
My guess for "expected" is 6M+. Anything over 8M would be a complete blowout, while anything under 5M would be disappointing, IMHO. I think a 4% move (~730 area) would be the target for the week if the expected numbers are reached. Also remember, we'll probably get at least an event announcement before earnings, for the iPad Mini, plus the actual earnings itself in a few weeks, going into the massive holiday quarter. So, there'll probably be very little selling and/or shorting. If anything, more analysts will increase targets, after seeing the initial iPhone5 numbers.
My guess for AAPL is a slow melt-up in the few weeks before earnings to 750+. What happens after that will depend on what AAPL guides to. I'm guessing $800 going into JAN13 expiration is entirely possible now. I have 100 750/740 APR13s, which I'm thinking might be a tad conservative now. Hmmm.