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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 21, 2012 17:41:24 GMT -8
I'm not being cryptic in the least. Tim is ensuring a good initial supply. I don't know how initial orders of 2M could ever be considered a bad sign as far as demand. A 7+ million iPhone 5 3-day launch number would be just fine. Terrific, really, and supply-constrained most likely. Is that your guesstimate? Seems like pundits and Gene Munster have raised the bar to 8 million. Are these US numbers or global numbers?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 17:50:27 GMT -8
Global for sure. I'm just guessing along with roni. We _all_ are. Nothing should be taken as gospel from anyone. Something that remotely hints at 75% YOY unit growth (given the global smartphone rate of growth is supposedly in the 40s?) should be enough to bid up AAPL. You'd get that "hint" from 4M (I suspect that number was really more like 4.x) to 7M. Of course I'll be the first to admit that extrapolating YOY growth rates from comparing 3-day initial sales periods probably isn't too effective. At all. But it could be better than extrapolating from lines at a couple of Apple Stores.
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Post by roni on Sept 21, 2012 17:54:49 GMT -8
Henry says we are about 70% of the way along the measure move to $736 Henry's post
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 17:57:28 GMT -8
Thanks for the update, roni. Let's keep riding that wave then! And thanks for the heads up, Grampa Henry!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2012 18:03:48 GMT -8
I'm not being cryptic in the least. Tim is ensuring a good initial supply. I don't know how initial orders of 2M could ever be considered a bad sign as far as demand. A 7+ million iPhone 5 3-day launch number would be just fine. Terrific, really, and supply-constrained most likely. I'd wager a bottle of anybody's favorite libation that Apple knew weeks ago how many iPhone 5s they would sell this weekend. That's because they produced just enough (for the weekend) to cover that amount. That some Apple Stores still have inventory means nothing. If Apple sold 4 MM iPhones during the launch weekend last October means, by definition, that Apple will sell that many this weekend. But last year's results were 135% greater than the year before. Applying the same rate of growth to this year's launch weekend gives us 9,400,000 iPhone 5s. BUT, I think demand will be higher because this launch included far more markets than last year. Apple knew all this, and took it into consideration, weeks ago. If Apple doesn't report 10,000,000 iPhone 5s sold during the first weekend, there is a problem. How WS reacts is another issue. Personally, I don't think they will mind. WS doesn't buy the past, and Apple's guidance for the December quarter is about the future, and THAT is what matters.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 18:07:28 GMT -8
That some Apple Stores still have inventory is great! It helps the "enough for everyone" factor, even for launch-day laggards or those frustrated with their long wait for shipping. And it IS a sign of good supply.
Gregg, iPhone 4S was launched LESS than a year ago. I'd bet a virtual half-dollar that 10M iPhone 5s sold in the first weekend would send AAPL to 730 or something on Monday. Remember, this is a brand-new manufacturing process with many new components. And you don't need 150% growth in 3-day initial launch sales (hard to do trend analysis with so many variables and such a short time period) for even skeptical WS to like the results.
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Post by podboy on Sept 21, 2012 18:07:44 GMT -8
The best advice I've gotten on this board so far are as follows: 1. Buy and hold 2. Buy the f'in dip! 3. Don't watch CNBC
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2012 18:18:14 GMT -8
Gregg, iPhone 4S was launched LESS than a year ago. Well, without wanting to split hairs too finely, you're right. It was 11 months and 1 week (49 weeks) ago.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 21, 2012 18:20:20 GMT -8
When will the weekend sales numbers be released? I'm thinking Monday before market open.
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Post by gtrplyr on Sept 21, 2012 18:50:56 GMT -8
iPhone 4s initial numbers were over 4 million www.apple.com/pr/library/2011/10/17iPhone-4S-First-Weekend-Sales-Top-Four-Million.htmlI hope people will be reasonable in their predictions ... anything over 6 million represents a 50% YOY gain ... more than respectable. I think we can do that easily but would caution against asking for superhuman numbers .... we are not doing ourselves any favors by setting the bar so high. Apple trades at 12-15 times earnings depending on how you calculate ... either way it is NOT trading like a growth stock so it makes me nuts when people expect ridiculous numbers . The biggest problem would be simply making and delivering that many units .... I have NO doubt the demand is there .
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 18:54:32 GMT -8
Gregg, iPhone 4S was launched LESS than a year ago. Well, without wanting to split hairs too finely, you're right. It was 11 months and 1 week (49 weeks) ago. Also, iPhone 4S launched more than 15 months after the 4.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 21, 2012 19:15:12 GMT -8
Well if 4S sold 4M on the first weekend, Tim wouldn't have less than 8M ready to go, probably more like 10.
iPhone5 commercial on abc as I'm writing this, first one I've seen. Every newscast today (local and national) discussed it. I'm thinking this launch is a huge success.
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Post by chasmac on Sept 21, 2012 19:18:00 GMT -8
I still think that Apple constrains initial supply to minimiz damages if something is wrong that only comes out in mass consumption (antennagate). I'll take 7-8 mil and be thrilled.
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Post by greedynoob on Sept 21, 2012 20:09:11 GMT -8
Its going to be a great weekend for the patio. All major weeds have been pulled. Now I get to put the flagstone back in place more tightly. And I get to finish the mongo-deck...
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 21, 2012 20:09:57 GMT -8
YOU'RE NOT SUPPOSED TO WATCH CNBC, REMEMBER?!?!?! I was just watching for you, so it doesn't count? iPhone 4s initial numbers were over 4 million www.apple.com/pr/library/2011/10/17iPhone-4S-First-Weekend-Sales-Top-Four-Million.htmlI hope people will be reasonable in their predictions ... anything over 6 million represents a 50% YOY gain ... more than respectable. I think we can do that easily but would caution against asking for superhuman numbers .... we are not doing ourselves any favors by setting the bar so high. Apple trades at 12-15 times earnings depending on how you calculate ... either way it is NOT trading like a growth stock so it makes me nuts when people expect ridiculous numbers . The biggest problem would be simply making and delivering that many units .... I have NO doubt the demand is there . Concur.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 21, 2012 20:18:58 GMT -8
I still think that Apple constrains initial supply to minimiz damages if something is wrong that only comes out in mass consumption (antennagate). I'll take 7-8 mil and be thrilled. Agree, honestly 7 is my number. I think 10 is crazy talk. That is a setup for failure. The number of places that phones can be bought has changed the continuous lines. Personally, I think people over the last week have been ordering online and not bothered themselves with going to the store. Apple launched in 9 countries. Have to figure around 3 mil for the US and 4 mil for the other launch countries. What needs to be kept in perspective is how many Apple is going to sell in Q4. Originally I was thinking 8-10 mil added to the qtr for a total of 26ish for the qtr. I am going back to the drawing board. This is a great launch and we have another 22 countries coming online next weekend. Is it to much to ask for Apple to run a commercial.
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 21, 2012 20:32:47 GMT -8
Horace audio now up for your listening enjoyment. Tip of the Iceberg September 21, 2012 at 8:45pm • 1 hour 13 minutes • Wiki Entry Horace and Moisés discuss the early consumer response to iOS 6 (Maps in particular), and how people appear to greatly prefer native apps to their web app counterparts. They also dig into just how large an opportunity cost Apple is capable of absorbing in the interest of protecting their platform. In doing so, they examine platform curation and how Apple has built an annual upgrade strategy in the US, a market accustomed to carrier subsidy and the two-year upgrade cycle. 5by5.tv/criticalpath/55
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Post by david on Sept 21, 2012 20:36:41 GMT -8
There are four new ads for the iphone5 at Apple's website. And they're good.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 21, 2012 20:38:56 GMT -8
ARE they now? We'll have to see...
I generally liked the iPhone 4Siri ads (the ones before the celebs)
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 21, 2012 20:40:44 GMT -8
So guess what? Pain actually did win today with the 700.xx close. Final 9/22 open interest numbers: Strike | Calls | Puts | 690 | 7,826 | 12,512 | 695 | 6,326 | 12,826 | 700 | 10,767 | 11,785 | 705 | 18,597 | 8,187 | 710 | 19,846 | 4,416 | 715 | 14,215 | 757 |
I sure wish we could see these numbers in real time, Senator ____________!
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 21, 2012 20:46:01 GMT -8
Agree, honestly 7 is my number. I think 10 is crazy talk. That is a setup for failure. I completely agree! Horace had the following post 9 days ago. www.asymco.com/2012/09/13/how-many-iphone-5s-will-sell-in-the-opening-weekend/My comment that day: artman1033 • 9 days ago I am an admitted AAPLoonian. I always think Apple will do better than is possible. When I read your headline, My initial estimate was 10 Million. Your estimate is 6 million. THEREFORE, unless there is a Black Swan event (Israel bombing Iran or economic collapse in Europe), The actual number will be between 6-10 million. Many comments from websites and twitter have pointed out that MOST of Verizon & Sprint iPhone customers will not be eligible for a "cheap" upgrade.
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Post by BillH on Sept 21, 2012 21:00:28 GMT -8
There are four new ads for the iphone5 at Apple's website. And they're good. They're very good. It sounds to me like Jeff Daniels is doing the voice work. Compelling stuff.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 21, 2012 21:06:34 GMT -8
OK, can someone tell me when the close changed. The WSJ shows that AAPL's "comprehensive close" was at 4:44 on Friday. If that does not show you how much they are in control, I do not know what will. They can move the goal posts to get the desired result.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 21, 2012 21:14:54 GMT -8
My "ships in two weeks" iPhone 5 is showing as preparing for shipment. Maybe it will get here before Oct 5.
Preparing for Shipment We will send you an email when these items ship. Not eligible to cancel or return Why? Future Shipments
iPhone 5 64GB Black & Slate (GSM) Show Rate Plan Available to ship: 2 weeks Delivers Oct 5 via Standard Shipping
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Post by elmar on Sept 22, 2012 1:27:21 GMT -8
My German "ships in two weeks" iPhone 5 has now a ship date of October 2nd.
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Post by ellsab on Sept 22, 2012 2:33:00 GMT -8
Apple store here in Brisbane, there were lines Saturday morning waiting to buy, they still had stock, must have done 400-500 on Friday, I'm still to get one as only had few minutes to pop in today, and contract system was going real slow so couldn't stay around. Store staff confirmed there is an allocation for Sunday, so I know what I'll be doing tomorrow morning, fingers crossed :-)
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 22, 2012 2:42:14 GMT -8
The best advice I've gotten on this board so far are as follows: 1. Buy and hold 2. Buy the f'in dip! 3. Don't watch CNBC +1
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 22, 2012 2:47:28 GMT -8
Do we expect AAPL to make an announcement on Monday about how sales went or...... are we turning to the carriers in hopes of announcements from them....or are we just reading tea leaves? My memory escapes me on what was done with the 4S. I'm sure some of you may remember tho.
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Post by ellsab on Sept 22, 2012 2:56:06 GMT -8
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Post by ellsab on Sept 22, 2012 2:58:16 GMT -8
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