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Post by ellsab on Sept 22, 2012 3:08:13 GMT -8
greggthurman posted based on sales increase from 4 to 4s, we should be around the 9.4 mark for this weekend.
I also feel that considering 4 was released in July, we are close to 1-2 months after all 4 users are now out of contract, so with people holding off inital purchase and these added numbers, Monday's announce will be very exciting, as long as they can make enough I don't see why 10 cannot to achieved.
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Post by rickag on Sept 22, 2012 4:31:06 GMT -8
greggthurman posted based on sales increase from 4 to 4s, we should be around the 9.4 mark for this weekend. I also feel that considering 4 was released in July, we are close to 1-2 months after all 4 users are now out of contract, so with people holding off inital purchase and these added numbers, Monday's announce will be very exciting, as long as they can make enough I don't see why 10 cannot to achieved. Apple certainly could sell 10 million over the first 3 days, it all depends on how many were made and how many they are holding for the launch in the next 20 countries. That said I'm with those thinking sales will be in the 6-8 million range. For this launch and next quarter I expect a total of 50+ million. Note; I reserve the right to be wrong, as I am new to this prognostication game.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 22, 2012 4:38:24 GMT -8
As I have said, if people are expecting 10 million, it is a setup for failure. WS will already have high expectations, we don't need to raise them. I am already on pins and needles with some Oct calls.
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Post by roni on Sept 22, 2012 4:40:16 GMT -8
Now the waiting time
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 22, 2012 5:02:01 GMT -8
I just read an article (won't link to the hit whore site, a new one I have never heard of) and the comments rail against Apple as duping its customers and that all those people standing in line are in fact paid by Apple. The Droid Army is hyperventilating. They are in full desperation mode to plaster the internet with as many negative comments and articles as they can to try and slow the adaptation. I just do not think people get it. The exceptionally long lines are a thing of the past for most locations because of availability. The number of points of sale is huge. Apple stores, Sprint, T, VZ, BBY, Wal-Mart & Target. Before long they might even make it into convenient stores. ;D Just kidding.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 22, 2012 5:14:56 GMT -8
I hope Apple does something positive about this clock APP. I look at the SBB clock and look at the Apple APP and they are very similar. There is no need for this to get any bad publicity and in fact SBB is proud, but I am sure they want some kind of compensation. I know some of you Apple looney's will want to fight this, but the clock looks the same to me.
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Post by greedynoob on Sept 22, 2012 5:34:41 GMT -8
I hope Apple does something positive about this clock APP. I look at the SBB clock and look at the Apple APP and they are very similar. There is no need for this to get any bad publicity and in fact SBB is proud, but I am sure they want some kind of compensation. I know some of you Apple looney's will want to fight this, but the clock looks the same to me. It's freaking identical. If the clock face is truly trademarked, then Apple should pay up or change RSN.
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Post by mjuarez on Sept 22, 2012 7:41:01 GMT -8
Just wanted to share. I've been using my new iPhone5 for the last 24 hours, and it's beautiful. I was already an AAPL fanboy, to a degree, but this phone just makes me giddy, and extremely excited about AAPL for the next 5 years. In a word, it's amazing. It inspires lust, and you're proud to show it off. I think I converted 2 or 3 people just yesterday. Regardless of software, just looking at the hardware. At that point, people just assume the software will be beautiful too
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Post by mcharliem on Sept 22, 2012 7:41:38 GMT -8
I'm skeptical that 8 million for the weekend is possible. Not because of production supply, and certainly not because of demand. I feel the logistics of getting that many through the Apple stores is just too much to ask and the third party retailers don't seem like they're getting much more supply than last year.
I'll be happy with anything over 6m, and a number over 7m would be great.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 22, 2012 7:41:53 GMT -8
Hey, Red! Are you here? Thought of you today when I was assigned on the short legs of OCT'12 SPY spreads (in two accounts) since SPY went ex-div today. Annoying! At OptionsXpress, I exercised my long legs...then opened another batch of spreads again. TradeMonster automatically bought to cover the short shares, so I went in and sold the long calls. Then opened another batch of spreads. Thanks for the thoughts, Lovey. Yep, I remember that experience with Apple in August. And a warning to BCS. Holders in November.....this could happen to you. A dividend capture play....stay alert or your broker will remove your control of the situation...
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 22, 2012 7:54:01 GMT -8
I'm not being cryptic in the least. Tim is ensuring a good initial supply. I don't know how initial orders of 2M could ever be considered a bad sign as far as demand. A 7+ million iPhone 5 3-day launch number would be just fine. Terrific, really, and supply-constrained most likely. I'd wager a bottle of anybody's favorite libation that Apple knew weeks ago how many iPhone 5s they would sell this weekend. That's because they produced just enough (for the weekend) to cover that amount. That some Apple Stores still have inventory means nothing. If Apple sold 4 MM iPhones during the launch weekend last October means, by definition, that Apple will sell that many this weekend. But last year's results were 135% greater than the year before. Applying the same rate of growth to this year's launch weekend gives us 9,400,000 iPhone 5s. BUT, I think demand will be higher because this launch included far more markets than last year. Apple knew all this, and took it into consideration, weeks ago. If Apple doesn't report 10,000,000 iPhone 5s sold during the first weekend, there is a problem. How WS reacts is another issue. Personally, I don't think they will mind. WS doesn't buy the past, and Apple's guidance for the December quarter is about the future, and THAT is what matters. I hope Apple reports 10MM but I don't think they will. Apple could sell 50MM this weekend (I'm not kidding) if it decided to begin producing phones a couple months ahead of time and launch globally this weekend. Of course, Apple didn't do that, and there's a very good reason for it. Apple manages these launches and their YoY growth rates pretty darn well. They also manage expectations by not blowing it out as much as they could every single year. Apple appears to want to roughly double iPhone launch sales each year based on all historical launch data. Apple likely determined how many and which countries it felt it needed to do that and that is why they launched the countries they did this weekend. I think 8MM is Apple's target but I'm also pretty confident they can beat that even though I don't think they really want or need to. If they do beat it, I think the beat will be small and we won't know how big the beat is (announcement will say "we sold >8MM iPhones this weekend").
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 22, 2012 8:03:52 GMT -8
I'm skeptical that 8 million for the weekend is possible. Not because of production supply, and certainly not because of demand. I feel the logistics of getting that many through the Apple stores is just too much to ask and the third party retailers don't seem like they're getting much more supply than last year. I'll be happy with anything over 6m, and a number over 7m would be great. Regardless of how many are sold, the majority of phones "sold" this weekend will not go through Apple stores. If there were 2MM preorders in the first 24 hours how many more were preordered online in the days leading up to yesterday's launch? Maybe another 2MM? Maybe more? How many will be sold through the thousands of points of sale for ATT, VZ, and Sprint stores? Is the phone available at Best Buy and Walmart too? That would be thousands more points of sale. We also have more countries launching which further spreads the number of phones per country and per point of sale. How many total phones will be sold this weekend? 8MM? I don't think there is any issue at all with how many phones are going through the Apple stores this weekend. I'd be willing to bet the number of phones sold this weekend per point of sale will be in the same ballpark as last year's sales per point of sale. No way to prove it but I'm very confident Apple measures and manages this very closely.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 22, 2012 8:52:13 GMT -8
Looks like TC is pretty pissed...Reuters article disclosing yesterday's filings- headlines read: Apple Wants $707 Million More of Samsung's Money Over Patent Infringement.The article also says: "The $707 million figure is made up of additional damages for infringing on both design and utility patents, as well as some interest, and the sales ban aims to cover "any of the infringing products or any other product with a feature or features not more than colorably different from any of the infringing feature or features in any of the Infringing Products." In other words, as many Samsung handsets as possible." This may get very interesting. If you want to read the full article here is the link: tinyurl.com/92ywda2
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 22, 2012 8:54:28 GMT -8
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 22, 2012 8:59:30 GMT -8
Just got an email from Apple and the delivery date for my order for an iPhone 5 has changed from Oct 5 to Sep 28!
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Post by adamthompson32 on Sept 22, 2012 9:13:06 GMT -8
Just got an email from Apple and the delivery date for my order for an iPhone 5 has changed from Oct 5 to Sep 28! UPOD...under promise, over deliver. Apple is the master of this. Congrats. I am going to (hopefully) buy a new iPhone today at my local Apple store.
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 22, 2012 9:34:16 GMT -8
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 22, 2012 9:38:24 GMT -8
Just got an email from Apple and the delivery date for my order for an iPhone 5 has changed from Oct 5 to Sep 28! UPOD...under promise, over deliver. Apple is the master of this. Congrats. I am going to (hopefully) buy a new iPhone today at my local Apple store. I was thinking about going to the store today too, but when I checked earlier it said the order was be processed and could not be cancelled. Then I got the email that it had shipped from China. So, I will leave the phones in the stores to others who will help boost the quarter's numbers.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 22, 2012 10:16:13 GMT -8
Drove past two stores on Long Island and there were no lines. My heart sank - so I called them to see if what model phones they had left (I wanted to see what models were selling out more quickly). Then both stores said, "No madam, no lines because we got sold out first thing this morning. Try us again on Monday - new shipment arriving." THAT put a huge smile on my face! ;D
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Post by roni on Sept 22, 2012 10:59:22 GMT -8
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 22, 2012 11:02:18 GMT -8
Canada Fairview still had stock as of Sat 2p. But apparently all the phones at retail this weekend are locked ones. Unlocked ones only available online. Cuts on scampers I think.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2012 11:22:10 GMT -8
Henry says we are about 70% of the way along the measure move to $736 Henry's postHas anybody noticed that Henry's "consolidation" period commenced about 2 weeks before April earnings (a period I watch for change in institutional sentiment), and ended shortly after July earnings? I think Henry's "consolidation" is nothing more than lack of buying interest on the part of the institutions. You can see this in the decline of daily trading volume between April and July earnings. Henry's calculation that we are about 70% into his forecasted upward move, corresponds with the fact the we are 67% into the period July earnings to Oct earnings. It is not coincidental that his forecasted move ends with Oct earnings: TTM and Guidance changes then. I'm still trying to understand what Apple said during the July Conference Call that has caused the institutions to jump back in. The only thing I can glean from it are statements of confidence from TC and OP, and an EPS guidance that suggests results in the $11.25 - $11.50 range, this going into the December quarter. What's the point of saying all this? From my perspective the point is this: if Apple reports anything above $11.00, and guides anything above $11.00, Henry's 'advance' will continue through the December quarter to about $950.00.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 22, 2012 11:26:40 GMT -8
Drove past two stores on Long Island and there were no lines. My heart sank - so I called them to see if what model phones they had left (I wanted to see what models were selling out more quickly). Then both stores said, "No madam, no lines because we got sold out first thing this morning. Try us again on Monday - new shipment arriving." THAT put a huge smile on my face! ;D Phoebes, I tried to see if I could get mine early today as I was told yesterday that it might be possible. The girl politely said, no chance, every one we had has been sold. All models, all sizes. I did go by Target and they said they have not gotten any yet.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2012 11:32:17 GMT -8
As I have said, if people are expecting 10 million, it is a setup for failure. WS will already have high expectations, we don't need to raise them. I am already on pins and needles with some Oct calls. WS isn't going to change their views based on what we think.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 22, 2012 11:38:32 GMT -8
I'm skeptical that 8 million for the weekend is possible. Not because of production supply, and certainly not because of demand. I feel the logistics of getting that many through the Apple stores is just too much to ask and the third party retailers don't seem like they're getting much more supply than last year. I'll be happy with anything over 6m, and a number over 7m would be great. I asked the UPS driver that delivered mine how it was going. In my market (400,000 pop) UPS augmented Friday's fleet with an extra delivery vehicle, dedicated to iPhone deliveries. They will be working Saturday as well The iPhones have been in local quarantine, awaiting vendor requested delivery date.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 22, 2012 11:46:09 GMT -8
I'm skeptical that 8 million for the weekend is possible. Not because of production supply, and certainly not because of demand. I feel the logistics of getting that many through the Apple stores is just too much to ask and the third party retailers don't seem like they're getting much more supply than last year. I'll be happy with anything over 6m, and a number over 7m would be great. I asked the UPS driver that delivered mine how it was going. In my market (400,000 pop) UPS augmented Friday's fleet with an extra delivery vehicle, dedicated to iPhone deliveries. They will be working Saturday as well The iPhones have been in local quarantine, awaiting vendor requested delivery date. Tim C. and Peter O. know how to manage the business and deliver quarterly financial results that will exceed expectations by just the right amount - "Goldie Locks earnings"
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 22, 2012 11:51:07 GMT -8
Icam, I can't say they did a good job last October or this past July. I also can't say they are doing a good job with the iMacs. That line is very long in the tooth. This is what you get when you have accountant types running things, squeezing the product and no concern for angry customers.
Disclosure, I think when PO breathes, it is a waste of oxygen. Have not cared for his abilities since 2007.
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icam
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Post by icam on Sept 22, 2012 12:03:30 GMT -8
m, Good points. Let me amend my comment and add that those abilities apply to Quarters when demand for their products is off the charts. This Q and next Q will such Quarters.
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Post by chasmac on Sept 22, 2012 12:03:50 GMT -8
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Post by nate010203 on Sept 22, 2012 12:12:05 GMT -8
It does seem they are making an effort to fix things at the macobserver.
Just fyi
dawn trader wrote in a topic title "turning a new page": Although over the past few years time and attention to my own work have precluded me from being as active in the AFB as in the past, recent events have created an opportunity for everyone who has enjoyed and participated in the “AFB experience” to engage in the renewal of this community.
How best can the owners of TMO meet the needs of readers interested in Apple’s finances and the company’s financial performance? The slate is clean and the time to speak is now.
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