Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 25, 2013 18:05:53 GMT -8
GOOG looking kind of interesting from a short perspective. Am I too late? IMHO, not too late on GOOG. "Ideally", I'm looking for a failed run at 800. After that, EMA-8 re-fail daily around 791. After _that_, a failure of the 785ish support level. Does that sound kind of right? In all honesty, I'm inclined to short _any_ weakness, to hell with discipline. ;D That kinda hammer from Friday just got bearishly engulfed in a serious way. Or did it engulf Thursday too? Also, MACD-h looking weak. Momo Mav waits not for confirmation (often, with sadly hilarious results).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 25, 2013 18:25:37 GMT -8
Trim and trail...or hedge into bear put spread...or something to protect / lock in some profits?! Thinking about some kind of stop. We'll see.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 26, 2013 6:43:12 GMT -8
Opened AMZN May 225/230 put spreads. Limit order to sell at a 50% gain.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 26, 2013 10:14:35 GMT -8
As market bounces go?
This is kinda weak.
Uh...230/225s? You have no idea how happy I would be for AMZN to hit _250_. ;D What's your downside theory?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 26, 2013 10:23:01 GMT -8
AAPL-esque H&S possibly forming in ARMH. Hmmm...
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Post by appledoc on Feb 26, 2013 11:52:10 GMT -8
As market bounces go? This is kinda weak. Uh...230/225s? You have no idea how happy I would be for AMZN to hit _250_. ;D What's your downside theory? I don't need to it to get anywhere near 225 to get the profit I'm looking for. Bearish cross on the daily MACD, bearish cross on the weekly MACD if this week holds. I'm expecting this to be a meaningful retrace, so I think we'll start taking out the weekly SMAs. Below the SMA10 this week. Now approaching SMA20.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 26, 2013 13:17:08 GMT -8
See PCLN after hours! Holy crap!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 26, 2013 16:40:30 GMT -8
Small AH jump, better than AAPL. It was all Shatner, if you ask me. ;D
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 27, 2013 11:07:23 GMT -8
I closed my AMZN short. Broke even. It broke through the downtrend line and stayed above it for a couple of hours.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 27, 2013 16:58:53 GMT -8
Whip. Saw.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 27, 2013 17:03:25 GMT -8
Not worried about AMZN. Holding.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 27, 2013 17:14:44 GMT -8
AMZN over 267ish, 270 could be troublesome if the machines feel like helping trigger an IHS. We'll see. (Still holding myself, for now...)
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 27, 2013 17:35:38 GMT -8
RE: AMZN... I've been in and out a few times now. The last trade was taking off 1/2 yesterday. Will buy back that 1/2 tomorrow -- I would have done it today but I was distracted by GOOG and SPY, so not paying close enough attention to AMZN. Look at the two charts below. In the AMZN 1H chart, look at the MACD-h (top one). See how price made a lower high (compared to 2/25), yet MACD-h made a higher high? This is "hidden bearish divergence." See second chart for illustration. AMZN 1H CHART: Hidden Bearish Divergence:
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 27, 2013 18:28:48 GMT -8
Thanks lovepad. Your idiot proof chart lays out the hidden bearish divergence for me....I saw that trend line get broken and it was hasta la vista baby.... kids from the slow side need more hand holding. As its been a rough couple months on my trading account, I wasn't fully committed to the position. I'll keep an eye on it a may reopen if the opportunity presents itself.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 27, 2013 18:51:44 GMT -8
Thanks lovepad. Your idiot proof chart lays out the hidden bearish divergence for me....I saw that trend line get broken and it was hasta la vista baby.... kids from the slow side need more hand holding. As its been a rough couple months on my trading account, I wasn't fully committed to the position. I'll keep an eye on it a may reopen if the opportunity presents itself. Hey! You did GREAT! Trendlines remain THE classic TA... If you bail every time you decisively break a key trendline, it will help you FAR more often than hurt you. So you did very, very well! Dan Fitzpatrick always used to say: the mistake isn't getting stopped out. The mistake is not reentering (whether price is higher or lower) when the coast is clear and you're more confident of the direction.
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 27, 2013 19:40:11 GMT -8
What exactly is the definition of a "decisive break" of a trend line?
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 27, 2013 19:54:08 GMT -8
I think of it as not for just a few minutes. Like you said today, AMZN broke it and stayed up there for a while, and it has still NOT come back inside. So, while I spotted the hidden bearish divergence that preceded the afternoon breakdown, there could very well still be another push up -- with regular bearish divergence. Unless price comes back inside the trendline, I don't know for a fact that this breach was just overthrow. You, in fact, are trading what you see, not what you expect to see; and THAT *is* the ideal!! Now, if you see a higher high on regular bearish divergence, that is your reentry! Or, if you see price break that trendline again. Way Cool Divergences Tutorial
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 27, 2013 20:16:06 GMT -8
Thank you.
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Post by appledoc on Feb 28, 2013 4:19:04 GMT -8
I did not know hidden divergences even existed. Keep it coming iPad.
;D
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Post by appledoc on Feb 28, 2013 13:13:50 GMT -8
Reminding myself to look at ISRG. This report looks like nothing to me. I have limited experience with the Da Vinci robots, but the attendings I've worked with who have used them for years love them.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 28, 2013 14:15:44 GMT -8
I added one tiny AMZN APR'13 240/260 bear put spread @ 4.95.
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icam
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Post by icam on Feb 28, 2013 14:45:21 GMT -8
I added one tiny AMZN APR'13 240/260 bear put spread @ 4.95. Did you use as your buy signal the hidden bearish diversion using a chart from Monday to today with hourly price highs being lower and MacD tops being higher? And, wouldn't moving this early be a bit like trying to catch the falling knife? Wouldn't it be more prudent to wait for confirmation with a move down through the down trend line?
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 28, 2013 17:39:23 GMT -8
icam, I entered based on the REGULAR bearish divergence today -- yesterday I said to watch for it for your short entry OR to wait for a break of the trendline. (Usually, after the hidden comes the regular divergence: hidden ---> retrace ---> another leg ---> reversal) You are right that divergence trading carries an element of front-running compared to waiting for confirmation with a trendline break -- you can absolutely get burned -- so it really depends on your risk tolerance and your nimbleness. To mitigate risk on the front end, I'll buy time on expiration and stay small with the size (ONE spread not the ten I wanted ). Then, because I'm often wrong -- I'm used to it -- there are several things I might do to manage a losing trade once I'm in it and the market goes against my position. AMZN 30-MIN CHART: AMZN 15-MIN CHART: Bearish Divergence (Regular):
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Feb 28, 2013 21:20:46 GMT -8
Ahhh Master Lovepad (aka iPadYoda), your good. Not only did you say it and execute it, you predicted it. I was too busy today to get involved. Tomorrow I'll have more time to pay attention... I hope the trade works out for you...Nicely executed... And this grasshopper Jedi is duly impressed. Thanks for sharing.
So, how many time periods, or how much time, needs to be included in the analysis for these divergences to be valid? And, is there a correlation between length of time, or number of periods, and the risk reduction when front running? And, when exactly do you decide to pull the trigger?
Thank you again for the education from iPad U!
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icam
Member
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Post by icam on Mar 1, 2013 14:46:16 GMT -8
Dealing with limited funds in my trading account right now, soooo I had to choose between bear put spreads for AAPL or AMZN. AAPL looked to have some intraday weakness continuing the theme of the longer term trend line down and the gravitational pull towards 400, plus intraday I think I spotted a bearish divergence and pulled the trigger on an intraday spike. I added to my May 400/380 bear put position at $4.75. I don't like doing this, but the disaster insurance is a nice consolation prize when my long AAPL positions are getting pounded.
At the time I pulled the trigger Amazon wasn't showing any divergences in either direction and if fact was holding strong all day. It tested the longer term downtrend line, but didn't break below it. Now that I look back at todays chart on a 3 minute basis, there appears to be a regular bearish divergence setting up.
The live fire education continues.....
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 1, 2013 15:01:48 GMT -8
Ahhh Master Lovepad (aka iPadYoda), your good. Not only did you say it and execute it, you predicted it... icam, awwww...thanks for the kind words, but trust me on this, my "forecasts" are always WAGs and I am wrong constantly. My saving graces: I grow increasingly better at risk management and damage control ... through all my experience f-ing up. ;D To me, it's not so much about being "right," but knowing what to do when you're wrong. That's why I always say: I don't forecast, I just trade. Meaning: my forecasts are always WAGs and the market is dynamic, not static, so anything can change anytime. Now, AMZN has been giving some very good divergence signals for day/swing trading. I've been in and out daily -- real + paper trades -- for several days now. BUT it's important to note that in an especially strong trend (which AMZN is not at the moment), divergences can go on a LOT longer than usual. For instance, in strong uptrends, we see low-volume melt-ups on seemingly never-ending bearish divergences. That's when shorts get squeezed mercilessly. With AAPL, in this killer downtrend, the bullish divergences keep piling up, yet we continue circling the drain. That said, while AAPL's bullish divergences are NOWHERE near as reliable or actionable as trendlines, bearish divergences are working just fine. Will get back to you on the other Qs when my brain isn't quite so fried.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 1, 2013 15:06:19 GMT -8
iCam, I think AAPL remains the easiest to trade right now. And quite frankly, it's been easy to trade since October if you didn't have your blinders on. Regrettably it took Q1 earnings for me to take them off. Oh well.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 1, 2013 15:09:26 GMT -8
iCam, I think AAPL remains the easiest to trade right now. And quite frankly, it's been easy to trade since October if you didn't have your blinders on. Regrettably it took Q1 earnings for me to take them off. Oh well. Doc, me too on not taking off my blinders until Q1 earnings and losing the weekly SMA-100. Better late than never? I find that trading in general is easier for me the less I know about the company's fundamentals. Fundamentals sway me to ignore technicals when technicals get "ridiculous." And that kind of logic is deadly in trading. Technicals are objective. They don't have an agenda. There's no spin. They just tell us what IS happening. P.S. Nice job on your AAPL bear spreads!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 1, 2013 15:20:06 GMT -8
Dealing with limited funds in my trading account right now, soooo I had to choose between bear put spreads for AAPL or AMZN. AAPL looked to have some intraday weakness continuing the theme of the longer term trend line down and the gravitational pull towards 400, plus intraday I think I spotted a bearish divergence and pulled the trigger on an intraday spike. I added to my May 400/380 bear put position at $4.75. I don't like doing this, but the disaster insurance is a nice consolation prize when my long AAPL positions are getting pounded. GOOD JOB on the AAPL bear spreads!!! Your logic and motivation parallels mine. And again, bearish divergences on AAPL have worked extremely well in this killer downtrend. Sad to say, it's "the gift that keeps giving...to shorts."
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icam
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Post by icam on Mar 1, 2013 15:29:43 GMT -8
doc - I agree, AAPL appears to be the much easier trade right now. I'm all for the easier trade.
Lovepad - I'm a big fundamentals investor and so far I've struggled like a mother bugger to get the TA stuff into my cranium....let alone that martian talk aka Elliot Wave. I'm getting there, but it's baby steps....one day at a time. Trying for better entries and being willing to walk away and cut my losses early is lending to getting better at risk management too. This drop in AAPL over the past 5 months has opened my eyes to the light. I'm walking towards it.
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