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Post by appledoc on Apr 19, 2013 10:53:53 GMT -8
Might be setting up nicely here. Meeting resistance at the daily SMA50 and weekly SMA8 and SMA10. Going to wait until Monday to see how it acts.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 11:32:43 GMT -8
Ah, so that's what you meant. I'm just watching 800, but so far I'm assuming micro bull flag until GOOG resumes being choppy.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 19, 2013 13:49:40 GMT -8
May GOOG now replicate AAPL's APR'12 chart.
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Post by mace on Apr 19, 2013 14:09:05 GMT -8
GOOG: Try to add to the bearish position but couldn't get. Will try again on Monday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 15:27:46 GMT -8
It may be on an Oct 12 path. It may be on a different one!
Level by level. How does GOOG handle 800, go from there.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 19, 2013 16:36:56 GMT -8
GOOG: Try to add to the bearish position but couldn't get. Will try again on Monday. Daily candle is very impressive, so be careful. Close above the daily SMA-50, and it's Bull Country for a potential retest of the highs. In which case, IMHO, wait to see some clear neg divs.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 19, 2013 16:42:41 GMT -8
Pardon my ignorance, but I just focused that potential, powerful micro bull flag. I'm staying away for now.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 22, 2013 12:36:42 GMT -8
Resistance again at the 50 day for GOOG. That 775 was not real either. Just waiting for my play...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 13:46:01 GMT -8
The market is still trying to regain bullish composure. So the relative whipsaw-ness continues.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 22, 2013 13:52:51 GMT -8
HOLY CRAP RE: NFLX!!!!!!!!!!
Glad I didn't short that one!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 14:03:08 GMT -8
NOW the word comes to mind: Resilient. This market is still resisting the H&S.
Will NFLX help recharge the bulls? If I had to guess, I'd say yep. Well, there IS a reason why I'm mostly in what little cash I have left right now. Too dangerous to get too involved.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 22, 2013 14:03:41 GMT -8
Btw, we all better buy calls on AMZN, maybe. ;D (/sarcasm)
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Post by appledoc on Apr 23, 2013 12:07:49 GMT -8
Strong day for GOOG. Close above the SMA50. Went a few points above the 61.8% retrace of the move from 844 to 761. Will look to short when the daily MACDh has bearish divergence.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 25, 2013 16:26:36 GMT -8
Having second thoughts about shorting GOOG. I'm thinking January 2010 to June 2012 was primary 2 of cycle 3. We're in minor 3 of intermediate 3 of primary 3. Lots of threes = big move up. Talking about a minimum target for primary 3 of 1400.
Over 844 and I'm going long.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 25, 2013 19:14:03 GMT -8
AMZN potentially headed for weakness again.
Still looking at 260 >> 253.
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Post by mace on Apr 25, 2013 22:30:51 GMT -8
Having second thoughts about shorting GOOG. I'm thinking January 2010 to June 2012 was primary 2 of cycle 3. We're in minor 3 of intermediate 3 of primary 3. Lots of threes = big move up. Talking about a minimum target for primary 3 of 1400. Over 844 and I'm going long. EW count for GOOG. Wave 4 has not completed yet. Should complete near wave iv.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 26, 2013 12:05:44 GMT -8
Shorted GOOG at 801.40 just before close. Stop loss at 844. Feel like it's a good entry with bearish divergence on the daily MACDh and rejection on retest of the SMA50. The chart is so eerily reminiscent of AAPL's...
I still will go long above 844.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 13:55:23 GMT -8
Well, there went 260.
Let's see about 253. I love to _think_ about shorting AMZN, but it's another thing to actually buy the puts.
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Post by appledoc on Apr 26, 2013 14:17:22 GMT -8
I'm not touching it again, but if I did, I'd wait for it to break below the range it's been in. That's only a few points away. No harm in waiting if it's going to truly take a dive.
SMA100 is also right there. Good measuring stick for sentiment.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 26, 2013 20:10:53 GMT -8
253, as I said? ;D
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Post by appledoc on Apr 29, 2013 9:04:50 GMT -8
My GOOG trade looking awfully crappy very quickly.
AMZN hit close to the SMA200 without a very strong bounce.
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Post by lovemyipad on Apr 29, 2013 14:16:22 GMT -8
Doc, mid-channel is treacherous!!!
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Post by appledoc on Apr 29, 2013 14:48:49 GMT -8
Doc, mid-channel is treacherous!!! Yes it is. But hey, if it gets above 844, I sell and lose 5%. I've done much worse.
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Post by appledoc on May 3, 2013 4:59:24 GMT -8
Is AMZN going to keep dancing around the 200 day, or is it going to break out?
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Post by lovemyipad on May 3, 2013 18:49:51 GMT -8
OMG GOOG! My bear spreads are TOAST! Good thing they are JAN'14. That's the second earnings-related Phoenix move in a row -- how annoying.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 3, 2013 19:57:25 GMT -8
I HATE the SPY. And QQQ.
Oh well. Fortunately, AAPL brought be back to...slight loss YTD? Yayyyyy.
What is WITH this Teflon market (uptrend)?! Any ideas?
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Post by appledoc on May 4, 2013 4:25:01 GMT -8
Already booted from my GOOG short. One week, 5%. Oh well. Mav, it's all sentiment. Charts have looked toppy for the SPY and individual shares countless times over the past 1-2 months, yet we keep climbing the mountain higher. Case in point: jobs data yesterday. Jobs added, unemployment down. But workers working less and rate of jobs growth is in line with population growth. This graph says it all for me... So at some point we will have a pretty tradable correction. I would think it's going to be soon, but I've been wrong numerous times now. I don't think this is the point where you want to go long though.
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Post by lovemyipad on May 4, 2013 7:06:47 GMT -8
Back with comments later on indices. Wanted to share a facepalm moment from last week. On the day of LNKD's earnings, during regular market hours, very near the ATH, I shorted shares -- not something I usually do, but I didn't want to watch it closely the way I have to with options, and didn't want to deal with IV collapse, and I just wanted to use a trailing stop to babysit the position. Well, I set the stop way too closely (day trade proximity, not swing proximity) and wound up stopping myself out within the hour around break-even. I was slightly annoyed, but too busy watching AAPL, so did not reenter and, well, kinda forgot about it. Until AH. When I saw it was down friggin 20. Aaaarrrrgggghhhhh!! It's kinda like that AMZN feeling of: I knew it! But it took forever-and-a-half to happen! Anyway, that was a textbook bad, stupid trade in infinite ways. Trust me, I have them. On a similar note, I've been living in denial re: GOOG post-earnings when it miraculously overnight completely un-beared its daily and weekly uber-bearish charts. Like AAPL, where I didn't want to believe what the technicals were clearly saying during huge stretches from 644 to 485 (pre-JAN'13 earnings), I've been fighting the GOOG tape, refusing to believe the technical landscape drastically, decisively changed. Mav astutely noted: the post-earnings bullish engulfing candle was a blatant clue, yet I kept thinking of AAPL's APR'12 earnings reaction, which strong though it was, could not achieve significant follow-through to decisively alter the bearish landscape of the daily and weekly technicals. That landscape takes a long time to develop, and it's rare (but obviously not impossible) to drastically alter overnight, certainly for AAPL. Notes to self: Technicals don't lie. Don't fight the friggin tape. Price is the #1 technical indicator and trumps all others. Triple facepalm.
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Post by lovemyipad on May 4, 2013 7:24:19 GMT -8
So at some point we will have a pretty tradable correction. I would think it's going to be soon, but I've been wrong numerous times now. I don't think this is the point where you want to go long though. When enough bears move to the sidelines, so their popped stops can't fuel the upside, we're going to have an order vacuum below us -- buyers holding out for lower prices. WAG: that break over SPY 160 flushed out a huge number of shorts, especially going into the weekend. Now let's see if real buyers (not forced buyers or momentum traders) want to keep buying at these prices. On that note, same goes for other stocks, including AAPL. On Friday's opening gap, if shorts flattened their positions (helping to fuel the upside) going into the weekend to avoid a potential gap up Monday, we'll need to see some real buyers step in to keep the upside going.
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Post by highway2heel on May 8, 2013 12:09:04 GMT -8
TSLA earnings in about an hour...should be interesting day tomorrow based on the forward guidance from Elon...
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