Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 4, 2013 13:49:29 GMT -8
Just a pilot thread, we'll see how it goes:
Right now I just figured I'd collect some points of confluence, which others are free to add to or just continue their business in their respective topics of interest:
Early Feb. 2013 edition:
Fundamentals:
- 440 is about the 10 multiple (psychological significance)?
Technicals:
- 440 is apparently a major macro trendline from a log price chart standpoint (source: Mace). Also support level? (Redler)
- Recent AFB downtrend analysis/comparison showed valid trendlines/channels with 440 as a key downtrend low point of reference (AAPL Chart Talk)
- ~440 is the last-gasp (76.4%) Fib retracement level of the Nov '11 - Sep. 12 accelerated uptrend (about 358-702, div-adjusted). Hardly a positive, let's just say.
Elliott Wave:
- Around 440 is the connecting point for a ~10 year log trendline. (Elliott Wave thread)
So yeah, maybe 440 is kinda important. And losing it could kinda suck.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 4, 2013 14:01:38 GMT -8
Mav, great thread!! Thank you!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 4, 2013 14:02:34 GMT -8
And tomorrow:
"Oh, AAPL's at 430-something. Well, so much for that."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 9, 2013 19:20:41 GMT -8
As an eternal optimist/idiot, I'd be very, very tactical with shorting bounces this far down. This will NOT continue forever.
Note my choice of words. The Best Play(tm) has been shorting since 705. And it will continue to work until it doesn't. But I just can't completely remove the AAPL label from the chart at least on a lookahead basis.
Btw iPad, 435ish have any decent significance in short-term EW?
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 9, 2013 20:38:17 GMT -8
Btw iPad, 435ish have any decent significance in short-term EW? Yes. 50% retrace of the the last drop (see pink Fib grid on last chart) and 23.4% retrace of the drop from 485 (see blue Fib grid).
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 9, 2013 20:41:42 GMT -8
Here's a new one for you: Fibs are m(eh)-gic.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jul 21, 2013 11:59:52 GMT -8
Here are the levels from the daily and weekly charts. I'll edit this post, adding the Fibs next...
Div-adjusted daily chart levels:
465.43 - weekly upper BB (20,2) 447.67 - weekly upper BB (20,1) 440.14 - daily upper BB (20,2) 437.47 - weekly EMA-20 430.70-ish - daily SMA-50, daily SMA-100 429.85 - weekly SMA-20 (middle BB) 428-ish - weekly EMA-13, daily upper BB (20,1) 427.40 - daily EMA-50 426.37 - daily EMA-8 424-ish - daily EMA-13, weekly EMA-8 423.61 - daily EMA-20 416.48 - daily SMA-20 (middle BB) 412.06 - weekly lower BB (20,1) 404.65 - daily lower BB (20,1) 394.27 - weekly lower BB (20,2) 392.81 - daily lower BB (20,2)
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