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Post by Lstream on Feb 10, 2013 18:41:28 GMT -8
No way this is a cheap iPhone. Technically impossible. Not to mention, the drawbacks of a tiny display. Some kind of cool accessory, maybe. Why not? What makes it impossible? Whose to say its not a 2.5" display? Look how thin the iPhone 5 is, and imagine how much thinner it would be without LTE. I think what you are trying to say is that the watch becomes the cell phone, right? This means it has radios in it, which are still power hogs. You cannot put enough battery capacity into a watch and end up with any kind of decent battery life. Think minutes. Plus in a form factor that small, you would dissipate way too much heat, to make it a wearable device. And even if you solved the battery life issue, the volume available for componentry is just not enough. If you get past all of that, how would any iOS apps run on such a small display?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 18:44:31 GMT -8
Nice accessory.
Wearable phone...not anytime soon IMHO.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 19:09:41 GMT -8
(...)smart money knows that in 5 years they will triple their money by staying put. I don't think smart money stays put for five years. They rotate in and out.
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 10, 2013 19:14:44 GMT -8
(...)smart money knows that in 5 years they will triple their money by staying put. I don't think smart money stays put for five years. They rotate in and out. Yes they do, that is why they are smart. ;D Einhorn is "smart money". He scaled out (Not all the way out) and is now in larger than ever before. There is no coincidence. Soon you will hear Kass get back on the bandwagon.
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Post by sponge on Feb 10, 2013 19:16:46 GMT -8
Blackrock holdings of AAPL over time: 50,654,165 shares of AAPL as of December 31, 2009 SEC 48,764,466 shares of AAPL as of February 2, 2011 SEC PAGE 1749,061,208 shares of AAPL as of February 13, 2012 page 1849,807,372 shares of AAPL as of December 31, 2012 (SEC FILING)Lovepad They held for 4 years and I suspect more. But they do get in and out during the year. So they will more then Triple their money.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 19:33:00 GMT -8
Rotation = scaling in and out during the year with "some" portion of the holdings
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Post by appledoc on Feb 10, 2013 19:37:43 GMT -8
Our multiple will rise, and deservingly so. I go back to the cash growth. The p/e has to rise to accommodate the pile. Someone is going to go after it. It is way to big and if Apple will not do it, rest assured, others will. I have been ridiculed for something I follow which is price/cash which stands at 3.46. No company has such a ridiculously low multiple. At an average multiple of 5, AAPL would be priced at 685. I get so agitated at the people who discount the cash implications. 5 years from now when Apple is sitting on 350 billion in cash (that would imply no change in the existing programs), what value would be acceptable? Blackrock is one of the EO's, if they think it is a good investment, I believe them over anyone else. AAPL is AAPL. Why do we insist on comparing it to other stocks? Why does AAPL deserve a P/C of 5? Because it's been there before? Looking at historical fundamental markers is what got many of us in trouble in the first place. Couldn't fathom going below a P/E of 12. Couldn't fathom going below an ex-cash P/E of 9. I'm sorry if I sound like an ass, but I'd rather have us not repeat the same mistakes we've already made. WS has shown they don't give a damn about that cash, and won't give a damn until it is put to good use.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 10, 2013 19:40:37 GMT -8
jeffi, no matter what the reason for any stock's gyrations, each of us is personally responsible for our choice of security (stock, option, spread, etc.) and our entry point, exit point, or lack thereof. I absolutely believe the Big Boys ring the bell at the top, and the bottom, and every major turning point. By no means does that absolve my personal responsibility, and to suggest that *I* would think anything otherwise is insulting. This, and I'd like some of what anyone who thinks Apple isn't a manipulated stock is smoking so I can see the pretty colors.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 10, 2013 19:52:12 GMT -8
AAPL is AAPL. Why do we insist on comparing it to other stocks? Why does AAPL deserve a P/C of 5? Because it's been there before? Looking at historical fundamental markers is what got many of us in trouble in the first place. Couldn't fathom going below a P/E of 12. Couldn't fathom going below an ex-cash P/E of 9. I'm sorry if I sound like an ass, but I'd rather have us not repeat the same mistakes we've already made. WS has shown they don't give a damn about that cash, and won't give a damn until it is put to good use. Yes, P/E is irrelevant to AAPL, and the sooner everyone here realizes that, the better. EPS is not irrelevant, however, so I do understand how a buyback could help Apple improve earnings numbers in a given quarter, and fine, maybe a brief stock pop. But that's a limited time accounting trick (Apple can't buy back stock forever, or there would eventually be none left, except the shares in my cold dead hands). Limited time accounting tricks might fool Wall Street once, but eventually they will acclimate to the new EPS numbers, assuming they had any effect at all. IMO a buyback is unlikely to affect long haul investor sentiment like an increased divy would.
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Post by macwire on Feb 10, 2013 19:55:06 GMT -8
aapl renkoanyone else think we are building toward the right shoulder of an inverse H+S on the daily for aapl? 500 left shoulder 440 head --> 500 right shoulder --> consolidate --> move higher toward 2nd half of year? (daily, renko)
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 20:02:48 GMT -8
aapl renkoanyone else think we are building toward the right shoulder of an inverse H+S on the daily for aapl? 500 left shoulder 440 head --> 500 right shoulder --> consolidate --> move higher toward 2nd half of year? (daily, renko) Nice chart. Maybe. But I'm thinking a bigger scale. Neckline at 555 or 594...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 20:10:22 GMT -8
Welcome to AAA appledoc, And with that out of the way ;D, if you use multipliers as FLOORS it's not so bad. 10x has held. Going below 10x is more than silly season. At some point close below that line, the pitchforks and torches come out in force, management fears for their jobs and stuff like Warren Buffett buying a stake, and the Board takes up more urgent measures to stabilize share price. Y'know, intervention and all that. As for management buying the company...Apple needs a little more cash yet to try and take itself private.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 10, 2013 20:13:53 GMT -8
Nowhere close to thinking IHS yet, but keeping an eye out for any potential formations...
I'm rather partial to the potential bull flag starting on 2/7 myself
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Post by bignav96 on Feb 10, 2013 20:22:00 GMT -8
(...)do you believe that because [insert reason here], technical or EW analysis became a fools' game? You will NEVER hear that from me, under any circumstances. Gotcha. My apologies, wasn't trying to denigrate if it came off that way. I was just asking what you and one other person (can't remember whom) meant by saying that the BLK news explained so much!
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Post by thechief on Feb 10, 2013 20:38:09 GMT -8
I'm going to heavily disagree with this. If WS felt AAPL was cheap at 705, we wouldn't be sitting at sub-500 right now. Apple is a company unlike any the world has ever seen. That creates uncertainty going forward. WS hates uncertainty. Profits rest heavily on the shoulders of one device. It's a magnificent device, but serious and legitimate concerns concerning its future have arisen over the past few months. Fact of the matter is that we had negative EPS growth last quarter (14 vs 13 week quarter, but STILL negative growth), and will certainly have negative EPS growth in Q2. You cannot paint a positive picture out of that. Now long term I do believe in this company and their ability to create desirable products. But right now the water is murky and it has yet to be cleared by TC and company. Hopefully we finally see some damn conviction come March. Doc IF WS really believed that Apple is in trouble and their business plan uncertain, there is no way in hell one Hedge fund decides that it is safe to own $24Billion or over 5% of a company. That to me is confirmation that smart money knows that in 5 years they will triple their money by staying put. It does not get anymore bullish then that. Blackrock did not get to managing 3.6Trillion in assets by making risky betts on fads and concerns over falling margins. Valid to an extent...but remember how much of BLKs business is passive + some V large segregated mandates.......BLKs hedge fund business is pretty tiny tbh and their big success story has been FIGA (fixed income global alpha fund) and UK equity hedge......
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 10, 2013 21:27:54 GMT -8
Gotcha. My apologies, wasn't trying to denigrate if it came off that way. I was just asking what you and one other person (can't remember whom) meant by saying that the BLK news explained so much! No worries! When sellers hold out for higher prices, prices rise. When buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall. The BLK news explains at least one player who rang the bell at the top and the bottom.
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Post by bignav96 on Feb 10, 2013 22:09:58 GMT -8
Gotcha. My apologies, wasn't trying to denigrate if it came off that way. I was just asking what you and one other person (can't remember whom) meant by saying that the BLK news explained so much! No worries! When sellers hold out for higher prices, prices rise. When buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall. The BLK news explains at least one player who rang the bell at the top and the bottom. Oh ok. I thought you both were implying something more insidious, and I didn't think we had evidence of anything like that. Hence my question. Here's to green tomorrow!
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 10, 2013 22:29:44 GMT -8
AAPL is AAPL. Why do we insist on comparing it to other stocks? AAPL is not an island. Stocks are compared against each other every day. You make comparisons to look for what you believe to be the best investment do you not? does not matter if it is TA or fundamental. WS has shown they don't give a damn about that cash, and won't give a damn until it is put to good use. WS does give a damn about the cash. WS is just to the point of demanding Apple do something with it. All WS cares about is cash.
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Post by ibuyer on Feb 11, 2013 1:30:27 GMT -8
I'll go ahead and say that 50-53 in EPS is entirely unrealistic. Barring any massive buyback, 48.20 tops. That's being generous with 30% growth in Q3 and Q4 and 11.00 in Q2 (which I think will be difficult given guidance). +1. FWIW, I see much more Rev upside than EPS upside.
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