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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 1, 2013 16:26:32 GMT -8
The bar is open!
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coma
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Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Mar 1, 2013 16:45:49 GMT -8
Your late, I started at 4:00:01.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 1, 2013 18:34:23 GMT -8
The big boys are certainly having their way with us. I feel like the turn is soon, but I was going to mortgage the Enterprise at 550...so don't listen to me.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 1, 2013 18:55:54 GMT -8
Hey look, a new low. There's more to go IMO. Just be prepared and hedge yourself if you can. I am still very net bullish long term. Agreed. I recently got out of all my mutual funds in an IRA and am debating when or if to buy AAPL. If I do, I'd be really considering covered calls. I, too, cashed out of all mutual funds and equities (except the fruit) last week. IMHO, there's no hurry to buy AAPL -- as price action and volume illustrate, no one is in any hurry to buy AAPL. Eventually, we'll have a confirmed break out / reversal, after which we will have a pullback with a HIGHER low. That's the most conservative long entry. Me, I've just stuck my orders at key support levels. Either they fill, or I go the above route.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 1, 2013 18:56:29 GMT -8
Red, I was ready to hock my jewelry at 585.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Mar 1, 2013 19:56:42 GMT -8
Yeah, AAPL is pretty lost at the moment. Though my tinfoil Early Warning Channel isn't half-bad to watch if I do say so myself.
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Post by sponge on Mar 1, 2013 20:08:24 GMT -8
I too consider coming up with some extra cash. But I would want 525 to hold. So yes I need to wait $100 to feel secure.
We have a long way until 705 and I am still managing margin calls.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 1, 2013 20:22:09 GMT -8
I can't believe what I just read on the last page of the intraday thread. Unbelievable.
Unbelievable.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 1, 2013 20:55:04 GMT -8
I can't believe what I just read on the last page of the intraday thread. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. You must mean the math of share buybacks. It's been a long week. Confusion reigns sometimes...
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Post by aapl4kiki on Mar 1, 2013 23:08:14 GMT -8
I can't believe what I just read on the last page of the intraday thread. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. Amazing that it even needed an explanation.
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SJRIP
New Poster
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Post by SJRIP on Mar 1, 2013 23:29:00 GMT -8
I can't believe what I just read on the last page of the intraday thread. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. You must mean the math of share buybacks. It's been a long week. Confusion reigns sometimes...Confusion is one thing, hypocrisy is another.
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Post by tuffett on Mar 1, 2013 23:59:50 GMT -8
To not have a clue about what happens during a buyback is just...I don't know.
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Post by fas550 on Mar 2, 2013 4:38:35 GMT -8
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Post by appledoc on Mar 2, 2013 5:55:49 GMT -8
It just goes to show that you should be careful who you listen to here.
I'm assuming we're all here to learn something from one another, and to try applying that to AAPL and make some money off it. It's up the board as a whole to make sure factual information is being presented. Unfortunately, a lot of BS gets thrown out there. A good deal of the time it's by some of the more vocal posters and hostile posters. I'm sure there are people who are listening to them and trading based on that "advice". I know I have in the past.
Even in just the past two weeks I think we've shown that P/C ratios and max pain are utter bunk not to be trusted. The P/C theory was completely ass backward, and max pain is a range, only possibly useful on Friday, that changes intraday when you don't get corresponding data. The fact that these two things were presented and insisted upon as mechanisms to make trades and predict bottoms really bothers me. God forbid anyone challenge them either.
I'm not saying I'm perfect. I'm far from it. I goofed a handful of times from October through January. It cost me some money, but it's been a great learning experience. Now I'm trying to apply what I've learned. And go figure, I'm finally back to making green trades.
This board is great for fundamental analysis. It always has been. And that's where the problem is. There was a major disconnect between share price and fundamentals in the fall. That disconnect isn't so great now, but still there IMO. I'd urge you to try taking the blinders off and view things from a different perspective.
There's only one of two ways ever to make an initial judgement on whether or not to buy a stock:
1. Sentiment is positive, therefore I should buy. 2. Sentiment is negative, therefore I should sell.
AAPL is so easy because it's a highly visible stock. The media covers it ad nauseam. It's been hit article after hit article for the last five months. But if you ignored the fundamentals and just looked at sentiment, you could have made an absolute killing.
I'm going to urge you to take a look in the technicals section and see what's going on there. Posters like iPad, Mav, Mace and wheeles all do a pretty damn good job of analyzing what is going on. Yes, it's an imperfect science. But it tends to get you in less trouble than any other method of investing that I've seen. I know a lot are adverse to technicals, and it's likely that has a lot to do with the learning curve. Ask questions. They'll get answered. We're nice people. ;D
I hope I didn't sound like an ass. I'm just trying to help everyone make some money. This board is a shell of its former self and I don't want to see it die.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 2, 2013 6:56:16 GMT -8
The stock price IMHO is the direct way to measure his success and based on the fact he has produced 16% return over a year and a half to me is At best is a D rating. I believe the best measure of the success of Apple's management is not the price that the market happens to put on the business on any particular day but the intrinsic value of the company and the amount of free cash flow that the business generates for shareholders. By those metrics Apple management have been doing a great job.
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 2, 2013 7:09:41 GMT -8
I can't believe what I just read on the last page of the intraday thread. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. You must mean the math of share buybacks. It's been a long week. Confusion reigns sometimes... No math is involved. The most elegant way to explain a stock repurchase is that it enhances the remaining shareholders portion of future earnings.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 2, 2013 7:33:13 GMT -8
It just goes to show that you should be careful who you listen to here. I'm going to urge you to take a look in the technicals section and see what's going on there. Posters like iPad, Mav, Mace and wheeles all do a pretty damn good job of analyzing what is going on. Yes, it's an imperfect science. But it tends to get you in less trouble than any other method of investing that I've seen. I know a lot are adverse to technicals, and it's likely that has a lot to do with the learning curve. Ask questions. They'll get answered. We're nice people. ;D Regarding who should be listened to, I think you also need to be careful about how you are selling TA. I stay out of the technicals threads, since it would cause bad feelings among the believers, to have someone question the validity over and over again. But here I think it is fair game. What you write above is conjecture and opinion. In my case, I am not scared of learning curve. Instead, my refusal to participate is due to academic research that shows that TA does not deliver profitable returns. And yet, the prevailing thinking here is that it does. It is fine for the believers to build trading strategies and risk their money with TA based trading. That is their business, not mine. But I don't think that these strategies should be presented as being unquestionably valid, because there is solid evidence that they are not. Technical Analysis Around the World is just one piece of research that exposes TA for what it is. The conclusion sums it up. Here is a second paper from the Swiss Finance Institute, with similar conclusions. I know that this is an unpopular perspective here, but I am not attempting to influence TA believers in any way. However, for those on the fence I believe that research of this type should be considered, before anyone starts risking their money on a methodology that is on such shaky ground, when it is properly scrutinized.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 2, 2013 7:49:31 GMT -8
Regarding, who should be listened to, I think you also need to be careful about how you are selling TA. I don't think anyone here sells it beyond something that can provide for safer entry and exit points. I don't care for grabbing all of the profits. I just want to minimize the losses. TA can get jumbled because there are so many different forms of analysis. However, even if you boiled it down to the very basics (trendlines and moving averages), you would have been extremely profitable during the move down.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 2, 2013 7:50:02 GMT -8
The stock price IMHO is the direct way to measure his success and based on the fact he has produced 16% return over a year and a half to me is At best is a D rating. I believe the best measure of the success of Apple's management is not the price that the market happens to put on the business on any particular day but the intrinsic value of the company and the amount of free cash flow that the business generates for shareholders. By those metrics Apple management have been doing a great job. I agree with you if time value is taken out of the equation. Needing the intrinsic value to be recognized by the marketplace by, say, two weeks from Friday can screw up my perspective. But intrinsic value and free cash flow will eventually draw investor interest. Right now Apple is being held hostage by Big Money, who want access to the cash flow on their terms and will inflict small shareholder pain gleefully. Because Apple is now incapable ( I guess) of presenting a surprise to the marketplace, or of explaining good news in other than cryptic redundant terms, there seems no market risk to these Big Money people. We are told constantly that no products are coming out this Spring, that earnings in April will be poor, that the Board won't take decisive action with the cash.......so we wallow until sentiment changes. I really want Apple to gets its mojo back. Where's the swagger?
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Post by Lstream on Mar 2, 2013 7:54:53 GMT -8
Regarding, who should be listened to, I think you also need to be careful about how you are selling TA. I don't think anyone here sells it beyond something that can provide for safer entry and exit points. I don't care for grabbing all of the profits. I just want to minimize the losses. TA can get jumbled because there are so many different forms of analysis. However, even if you boiled it down to the very basics (trendlines and moving averages), you would have been extremely profitable during the move down. Hindsight does not count. It is a recurring flaw in people trying to claim TA validity, as much of the research shows.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 2, 2013 8:41:56 GMT -8
Meh. Learn if you want; don't if you don't.
My problem is that I care too much when other people* lose money, when I really shouldn't give a damn.
Really, it's of absolutely no benefit to me personally whether or not anyone else makes a profit or a loss, whether or not anyone else believes or doesn't believe that a simple TA risk management guideline like "no longs below/no shorts above the daily SMA-20" can save your ass more often than hurt.
It's your money; do what you want, however you want, by whatever principles work for you. I'm fine with that, better than fine -- I'll cheer you on. I just have to stop crying over other people's* losses when I see things that TO ME were easily avoidable, not ALL of which are in hindsight. (Without TA, I would have lost a f*ckload more than I did during this crash. E.g., I wasn't buying dips at 680.)
*Especially people I: 1) don't know; 2) may never meet face-to-face; and/or 3) may not particularly like.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 2, 2013 8:43:28 GMT -8
I believe the best measure of the success of Apple's management is not the price that the market happens to put on the business on any particular day but the intrinsic value of the company and the amount of free cash flow that the business generates for shareholders. By those metrics Apple management have been doing a great job. I agree with you if time value is taken out of the equation. Needing the intrinsic value to be recognized by the marketplace by, say, two weeks from Friday can screw up my perspective. True, it depends on the time horizon you have. Personally I find investing hard enough without having to worry about the additional variable of time. Hence I do not buy or sell options but just common shares, which I hold for a minimum of 5 years unless the story changes dramatically for the worse in the business I have invested in.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Mar 2, 2013 8:49:19 GMT -8
Agreed. I recently got out of all my mutual funds in an IRA and am debating when or if to buy AAPL. If I do, I'd be really considering covered calls. I, too, cashed out of all mutual funds and equities (except the fruit) last week. IMHO, there's no hurry to buy AAPL -- as price action and volume illustrate, no one is in any hurry to buy AAPL. Eventually, we'll have a confirmed break out / reversal, after which we will have a pullback with a HIGHER low. That's the most conservative long entry. Me, I've just stuck my orders at key support levels. Either they fill, or I go the above route. I started lightening up last week in the IRA's and 401k's too. Went from 0 cash, which I've been at since spring 2009, to 20% cash. Plan to continue this in the short term to mid term.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 2, 2013 9:11:12 GMT -8
Meh. Learn if you want; don't if you don't. My problem is that I care too much when other people* lose money, when I really shouldn't give a damn. Really, it's of absolutely no benefit to me personally whether or not anyone else makes a profit or a loss, whether or not anyone else believes or doesn't believe that a simple TA risk management guideline like "no longs below/no shorts above the daily SMA-20" can save your ass more often than hurt. It's your money; do what you want, however you want, by whatever principles work for you. I'm fine with that, better than fine -- I'll cheer you on. I just have to stop crying over other people's* losses when I see things that TO ME were easily avoidable, not ALL of which are in hindsight. *Especially people I: 1) don't know; 2) may never meet face-to-face; and/or 3) may not particularly like. Last post on this for a while. I went to the trouble of digging up some solid academic research on the subject. I consider that potential for learning as well. But instead, this work is mischaracterized as not wanting to learn. Odd, considering that those papers tested thousands of TA methods. Learning is a willingness to look everywhere, not just a handful of opinions on this board. Not an unexpected reaction I guess. I get the message and will stop questioning the doctrine. iPad - best wishes on keeping the Board going. I know you have a tough job, given the past 5 months. Hopefully things get easier soon.
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Post by rob_london on Mar 2, 2013 9:16:50 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 2, 2013 9:22:01 GMT -8
icam, I will continue regular, dollar-cost averaging into long-term investments -- which is how I have always invested. But now that I've learned a modicum of TA (none of which I knew prior to March 2011), at this time, preserving capital -- locking in existing broad market equity profits -- fits my risk management profile and financial objectives. I don't need all the gains...just none of the losses.* *quote credit to Sir Red
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 2, 2013 9:34:53 GMT -8
icam, I will continue regular, dollar-cost averaging into long-term investments -- which is how I have always invested. But now that I've learned a modicum of TA (none of which I knew prior to March 2011), at this time, preserving capital -- locking in existing broad market equity profits -- fits my risk management profile and financial objectives. I don't need all the gains...just none of the losses.* *quote credit to Sir Red M'lady.
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Post by jcaron on Mar 2, 2013 9:46:16 GMT -8
LS, please share the mechanism by which you trade to minimize risk. Obviously FA has proven to be an unreliable indicator in itself. PE is about the most useless metric published and those that continually scream that apple's PE is so low while amazon is too high are missing the bigger picture. For the record I look at TA and do my best to use the information it provides to my advantage, I also understand FA. I also understand no method is infallible. The reality is, appledoc may have summarized it best. Buy when sentiment is positive, sell (or better yet short) when negative. When one uses TA in its most simplistic terms and you trade by LEVELS, it has proven to be it can be very effective at minimizing losses and adding to gains.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 2, 2013 10:06:15 GMT -8
LS, please share the mechanism by which you trade to minimize risk. Obviously FA has proven to be an unreliable indicator in itself. PE is about the most useless metric published and those that continually scream that apple's PE is so low while amazon is too high are missing the bigger picture. For the record I look at TA and do my best to use the information it provides to my advantage, I also understand FA. I also understand no method is infallible. The reality is, appledoc may have summarized it best. Buy when sentiment is positive, sell (or better yet short) when negative. When one uses TA in its most simplistic terms and you trade by LEVELS, it has proven to be it can be very effective at minimizing losses and adding to gains. I have no magic answers on this topic. My original post was simply to suggest that people who are considering plunging into TA-based trading to take a closer look. Instead of just accepting the accepted doctrine. But I don't feel like making the discourse around here worse by questioning this any more. No one wants to hear it. BTW, please post the proof to your final statement in the above quote if you have it. I am willing to reconsider my opinion if some actual data backs up that statement.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 2, 2013 10:12:30 GMT -8
Last post on this for a while. I went to the trouble of digging up some solid academic research on the subject. I consider that potential for learning as well. But instead, this work is mischaracterized as not wanting to learn. Odd, considering that those papers tested thousands of TA methods. Learning is a willingness to look everywhere, not just a handful of opinions on this board. Not an unexpected reaction I guess. I get the message and will stop questioning the doctrine. iPad - best wishes on keeping the Board going. I know you have a tough job, given the past 5 months. Hopefully things get easier soon. Lstream, no disrespect intended. Apologies if it came across that way. So this is my last (I hope) post on this for a while too. To me there is a world of difference between academic research on TA and actually doing what I do every day. To me, it's like reading studies about sex versus having sex. IMHO, you have to study TA for yourself, determine through hands-on experience and real-world personal application what it is and is not, what it can and cannot do for you, what incremental value it may or may not provide. Otherwise, to me, it's like a virgin saying the most brilliant and respected minds in human sexuality research have concluded the practice of xyz shows no consistent incremental benefit, or somesuch.
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