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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 4, 2013 14:41:15 GMT -8
Hi, Mercel!!! I've missed you!!! Hi Lovey! ;D Lurking on wounded knees here, which is another way of saying, down, but not out!!! Don't encourage him, Lovey. He'll be building rocket ships and bar graphs next thing you know...  |
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 4, 2013 14:49:12 GMT -8
Oh my GOD! Do you have any idea how fast I'll be able to scroll on that upcoming S4? I'm quite the practiced eye-roller these days! ;D I blink a lot....could cause irrational scrolling....  |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 4, 2013 14:49:42 GMT -8
More like 15%? Accounting for SMA-200 weekly here, appledoc? Depends on how long it takes us to get there. Darn moving things. |
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Post by bud777 on Mar 4, 2013 14:52:31 GMT -8
I am reading a lot of posts here about what apple should do to make the stock more attractive. The posts seems to be divided between those who suggest that Apple needs to prove that it is an innovative company and those who think it should take financial steps to improve the EPS. Given that apple just brought out new versions of almost every product, why do think that a new iDevice would help? If WS can ignore the success of the iHone5 and the miniipad, why would a watch or TV make a difference. Similarly, if you cN have the 5th most successful quarter in history and have the stock fall 30%, what basis is there to think that there would be a positive reaction to a buyback. I think what droves us nuts is that we do not have a reasonable explanation for what is happening.
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Post by mace on Mar 4, 2013 14:54:45 GMT -8
Incomplete statement. What should we do when less than ten years, less than one year? Do he mean sell if no confidence of price at the end of 10 year is higher than now? Do he mean sell if you need the money within 10 years? In general, I believe the theory is that you scale out of "risky" (read as "equity") investments as you get closer to needing the cash in hand. So, you buy for 30-40 years, then at T-10 years, you start scaling out - let's say 10% a year until at T-zero you have all your cash in hand for whatever purpose you needed it. Thanks. Sponge - Do you agree with Mark. I agree. As such I doubt WB meant it for techs. Techs change ver fast so 10 years is too long. |
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Post by bud777 on Mar 4, 2013 14:56:52 GMT -8
I hit send accidentally. I was going to say that it really should not matter. If you are a buy and hold investor who cares about this fluctuation. If you are a trader, the opportunities are there either way. I know it is hard and i empathize, but this is the tome to hold tight, buy if you can and support ea ch other
We now return you to your regularly scheduled program of rationalizations
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 15:04:58 GMT -8
I hit send accidentally. I was going to say that it really should not matter. If you are a buy and hold investor who cares about this fluctuation. If you are a trader, the opportunities are there either way. I know it is hard and i empathize, but this is the tome to hold tight, buy if you can and support ea ch other We now return you to your regularly scheduled program of rationalizations If you are a buy and hold investor, a share buyback increases your share of future apple earnings. My complaint is not that apple isn't trying to prop up the share - its that Apple is missing a huge opportunity to improve the value of shareholders stakes. At no other point has apple been blessed with as much cash as it has now, and also been "blessed" with such a cheap price on its shares. |
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Post by sponge on Mar 4, 2013 15:08:51 GMT -8
Please quote me out of the official press release regarding buy backs and the reason for doing so. It has little to do with shareholders value and the stock price. I would tend to disagree...the problem right now is there are more sellers than buyers, hence the share price is dropping. What if Apple decides to come out and buy 100 Billion worth of shares. If Apple just bought back 25% of it's stock at $420, that would immediately bring EPS up 33%...so instead of Apple reporting around $10 this quarter, they'd be around $13.3. You don't think reporting $13.3 instead of $10 this next quarter would provide value to shareholders. Or instead of a yearly EPS of $45, they'd be around 60. The PE if Apple stayed at $420 would be 7. I don't disagree with that logic. All I am saying is that TC made it clear they want to decrease share creep from issuing more stock for employee compensation. Please look at the press release. |
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 4, 2013 15:22:22 GMT -8
This is just IMHO and it sounds like many here will disagree, but:
I believe all the talk about what to do with the cash is a distraction, and its a miney-grab by the same wall street types who have never had a clear idea of what makes Apple work as a company. I don’t think instituting a dividend and buyback has done anything to help AAPL stock in the past year, and I don’t think an increase will do much to help it. Last year, the same voices that said Apple needed to institute a dividend to attract a new category of dividend investors are saying the dividend needs to be increased. Well, we see what a non-impact a dividend has has on the stock in the past year.
The performance of the stock has everything to do with expectation of future growth or lack thereof. Until Apple can show sustained y-o-y growth rates, the stock will struggle, no matter what the cash plans are. At best, it's a sideshow or a distraction. At worst, giving the cash back to shareholders could decrease the stock price as the huge amount of cash per share backstops the share price to a certain extent. Personally, I don't agree with those who say that the market values Apple's cash at 0. Instead, I believe that Apple's cash in hand is almost the only thing the market is valuing because right now the market believes apple's future earnings will decrease and decrease.
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Post by ibuyer on Mar 4, 2013 15:30:52 GMT -8
I am reading a lot of posts here about what apple should do to make the stock more attractive. The posts seems to be divided between those who suggest that Apple needs to prove that it is an innovative company and those who think it should take financial steps to improve the EPS. They need to do BOTH. |
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Post by jeffi on Mar 4, 2013 16:25:02 GMT -8
I don't know what bugs me more - the extent and length of the sell off, or the utter inaction so far of Apple management to take advantage of the sell off. The former can be explained away as a perfect storm of fundamental, technical & sentiment changes, but the latter is getting increasingly inexplicable. Unless... Business is getting worse and they know the stock will yet get cheaper. Then management is being shrewd to wait. |
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Post by fas550 on Mar 4, 2013 16:52:55 GMT -8
Regarding the cash: its not about who gets what. It's about an actual plan. The amount is so large, without a plan the downside is and has been considerable. This is what some on here and everyone outside of here expressing an opinion has said. I haven't heard anyone outside this board state that sitting on it is the right thing to do.
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Post by fas550 on Mar 4, 2013 16:56:43 GMT -8
I don't know what bugs me more - the extent and length of the sell off, or the utter inaction so far of Apple management to take advantage of the sell off. The former can be explained away as a perfect storm of fundamental, technical & sentiment changes, but the latter is getting increasingly inexplicable. Unless... Business is getting worse and they know the stock will yet get cheaper. Then management is being shrewd to wait. If a potential share repurchase is\was in the plans that is the only logical conclusion to any potential buyers. Therefore from a timing perspective,why bother buying now. It's catch -22 |
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Post by tuffett on Mar 4, 2013 16:58:21 GMT -8
I am reading a lot of posts here about what apple should do to make the stock more attractive. The posts seems to be divided between those who suggest that Apple needs to prove that it is an innovative company and those who think it should take financial steps to improve the EPS. They need to do BOTH. Exactly. The idea that one can only happen without the other is absolutely asinine. |
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Post by appledoc on Mar 4, 2013 17:17:13 GMT -8
Reasonably, what market cap could Apple take themselves private?
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Post by rickag on Mar 4, 2013 17:45:42 GMT -8
Reasonably, what market cap could Apple take themselves private? They're close right now. At 50 billion a year the pay down of debt would approach only 6 years if the buy out were for $420. Naturally any buy out would require a premium so say a 10 year pay out to go private would up the price to say 500. I wouldn't vote for it but many large funds might. That said I doubt at this point Apple would try to go private as it would eliminate their cash and cash equivalents and incur massive debt and their employee stock options plan would be eliminated. |
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Post by applemuncher on Mar 4, 2013 18:22:32 GMT -8
How about a Red Dog Reversal tomorrow? I know the charts are ugly, but we have dropped 20 points in two days.
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Post by appledoc on Mar 4, 2013 18:32:12 GMT -8
How about a Red Dog Reversal tomorrow? I know the charts are ugly, but we have dropped 20 points in two days. Possible. I think this move down has about 7-10 more points to go before we get a retrace. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 18:53:13 GMT -8
How about a Red Dog Reversal tomorrow? I know the charts are ugly, but we have dropped 20 points in two days. From the option market max pain perspective (if you believe in that sort of thing) - puts and calls are about even at $425 at the moment. |
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Post by rosie on Mar 4, 2013 19:02:08 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 19:27:48 GMT -8
If a proposed July launch is true, then we would need to see a developer preview and beta release of iOS 7 in May at the latest. www.macrumors.com/2013/03/04/new-iphones-still-expected-to-launch-in-junejuly-fingerprint-sensor-for-iphone-5s/KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has issued a new research report claiming that Apple is expected to unveil its iPhone 5S and lower-cost iPhone alongside iOS 7 this June, with the devices coming available in July. Versions supporting the time-division duplexing (TDD) standard used by China Mobile are said to follow in September. "We expect Apple will introduce its new iPhones and iOS7 in June, and start shipping the new iPhones (5S and low-cost model) in the FDD version in July. Both dates are earlier than last year’s roadmap. We attribute this to: (1) an effort to avoid repeating the fatal mistake of last year of the delayed iPhone 5 launch, which gave competitors room to grab market share; and (2) the new iPhones this year are mainly designed on the basis of the current iPhone 5, which suggests development time could be reduced." Kuo says that all of the new iPhone models, including the lower-cost iPhone, will support LTE, with differentiation coming in other specs. "We expect the product differentiation between iPhone 5S and iPhone 5 will be: (1) computing power, with iPhone 5S to run on the faster A7 application processor; (2) the camera, with iPhone 5S being equipped with Smart Flash, ensuring photo quality using white or yellow flash according to lighting conditions; (3) iPhone 5S will have a fingerprint chip under the Home button, improving security and usability; and (4) the low-cost iPhone 5 hybrid casing of fiberglass and plastic will make it lighter and slimmer than general plastic casing and easier to make in various colors. However, we still think it will be heavier than iPhone 5S, which will have an aluminum casing. Thus, even form factor will be an area of differentiation." Kuo's iPhone claims are very similar to ones he laid out in his 2013 Apple product roadmap back in mid-January, but the fresh report suggests that Apple is still on track and his fresh comments on a TDD iPhone suggest that Apple may indeed be very close to bringing the iPhone to China Mobile, the world's largest carrier. Kuo has a rather solid track record, having accurately predicted a number of Apple product announcements in recent years. As a result, his research reports have been followed with increasing interest. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 19:29:13 GMT -8
So what might the Dec. quarter look like with two new products, iTV and iWatch? Just throwing some very preliminary #s out there to counter the cynics and bears who are betting against Apple.  |
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Post by sponge on Mar 4, 2013 19:31:41 GMT -8
How about a Red Dog Reversal tomorrow? I know the charts are ugly, but we have dropped 20 points in two days. Possible. I think this move down has about 7-10 more points to go before we get a retrace. That sounds about right. 420 was the line in the sand, but we should go another 10 points below that and reverse quickly. My only concern is that if the market really corrects I doubt aapl would hold firm. The latest in the iPhone release dates sounds very bullish. appleinsider.com/articles/13/03/04/apple-to-debut-iphone-5s-in-june-alongside-low-cost-fiberglass-and-plastic-handsetIf Apple really releases a cheaper iPhone (not sure what would happen to the 4S) I think Apple should shock everyone release a bigger iPhone 6 in Oct for $150 more then the 5S. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 19:34:54 GMT -8
So what might the Dec. quarter look like with two new products, iTV and iWatch? Just throwing some very preliminary #s out there to counter the cynics and bears who are betting against Apple. You think iPhones and iPads are going to reduce on a yearly basis? Personally I'm at ballpark figures of 60 million iPhones and 30 million iPads for the next December quarter... |
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Post by applemuncher on Mar 4, 2013 19:38:26 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 19:39:49 GMT -8
appleinsider.com/articles/13/03/04/verizon-cfo-lauds-iphone-says-no-plans-to-incentivize-selling-rival-low-subsidy-handsetsVerizon CFO lauds iPhone, says no plans to incentivize selling rival low-subsidy handsets By AppleInsider Staff Verizon Communications Chief Financial Officer Fran Shammo said on Monday that Apple's free-on-contract iPhone 4 produced "a lot" of volume for America's Verizon Wireless, and despite high subsidy costs, the telecom will not offer incentives for sales staff to push low-cost alternatives. Shammo made the comments during the Deutsche Bank 2013 Media, Internet & Telecom Conference earlier today, in which he fielded a few questions pertaining to the performance of Apple's iPhone on Verizon's U.S. network. It was announced in January that Apple's iPhone accounted for 6.2 million of the 9.8 million smartphones Verizon activated in the fourth quarter of 2012, the strongest period of sales since the carrier starting selling the handset in 2011. According to Shammo, the uptick in iPhone customers was mostly in thanks to the iPhone 4 price drop, which allowed Verizon to offer a free-on-contract Apple smartphone for the first time. The handset led to strong growth in 3G subscriber numbers, an important point given that the company is no longer investing in building out that network. All capital allocated to Verizon's 3G services are for maintenance only, Shammo said. As for subsidies, the CFO was asked whether he would incentivize Verizon's salesforce to sell low-subsidy units in an attempt to manage margins. Shammo was against such practices, saying it is important that customers leave a Verizon store with the device they want. "The worst thing that can happen for us is for me to incent [sic] a salesperson to get you into a phone that you walk out the door with thinking you are going to like and in three days you come back because you don't like it," Shammo said, according to a transcript (PDF) provided by Verizon. "Therefore, now I've just subsidized two smartphones because that phone you used I can't resell as a new phone."
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Post by mstrmac on Mar 4, 2013 19:41:40 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Mar 4, 2013 19:45:38 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Mar 4, 2013 19:46:41 GMT -8
So what might the Dec. quarter look like with two new products, iTV and iWatch? Just throwing some very preliminary #s out there to counter the cynics and bears who are betting against Apple. Too bearish for me. I see at least 62.5 million iPhones. |
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Post by Mav on Mar 4, 2013 20:13:29 GMT -8
Aside from that fatal mistake crap from Mr. Kuo, not a bad report.
I'd like me an iWatch.
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